北京时间周二22:00，美国7月ISM非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)将出炉。权威媒体调查显示，美国7月 ISM非制造业PMI预计为51.5，此前6月份为50.8。 分析师指出，美国7月ISM服务业PMI可能会对美元和黄金产生影响，具体取决于其是倾向于支持降 息，还是倾向于支持长时间的暂停降息。 美国7月非农就业增长不及预期，且前两月数据合计下修25.8万个岗位，导致美元指数徘徊一周低位， 10年期美债收益率跌至一个月新低。CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对美联储9月降息的押注已飙升至 90%。OANDA分析师指出："黄金短期技术面明显改善，但3450美元关口仍是关键阻力位，需要更强催 化剂才能突破。" 【技术分析】 值得注意的是，特朗普再次威胁对印度加征关税，地缘政治风险为国际金价提供额外支撑。市场人士认 为，在低利率预期与政治不确定性交织的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的优势正在凸显。 摘要周二（8月5日）欧洲时段，国际黄金维持在两周高位附近震荡，最新黄金价格交投于3370美元一 线，市场分析认为，美国就业数据疲软引发的降息预期升温，与美印贸易争端加剧共同构筑了黄金 的"双重支撑"。本交易日聚焦美国 ...

Group 1 - The gold market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with prices entering a high-level consolidation phase after breaking the historical high of $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025 [1] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce, with strong support observed around the $3200-$3300 range, suggesting potential buying opportunities if the long-term bullish trend remains intact [1] - The recent weak non-farm payroll data has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected 84.8% probability of a rate cut in September and two cuts expected within the year, each by 50 basis points [3][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's internal policy disagreements have intensified, with two dissenting votes during the July meeting indicating differing views on the monetary policy path, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [9] - The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has increased global trade uncertainty, further driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [10] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have also contributed to heightened short-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11] Group 3 - Analysts from Huayuan Securities believe that the combination of interest rate cuts and trade policies will provide strong momentum for gold prices in the near term, with a bullish outlook for 2025 [12] - According to Caitong Securities, the inflationary pressures from tariffs may lead to continued stimulus measures from the White House, enhancing gold's investment appeal amid ongoing global trade tensions [13] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850) and gold stock ETFs (159562), are gaining popularity due to their low management fees and the ability to track gold prices effectively, making them attractive investment options [14][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) has shown resilience and growth amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the NBI increasing by 2.06% [1] - The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (513290) has experienced significant inflows, rising by 0.85% as of 10:58 AM on August 5, marking three consecutive days of net inflows over the past five trading days [1][3] - Key component stocks of the Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF have mostly risen, with Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) up over 8%, and other notable increases from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) [3][4] Group 2 - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reported a 2.19% increase in stock price with a trading volume of 1.07 billion, while Amgen (AMGN) rose by 1.70% with a trading volume of 695 million [4] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is projected to have total revenue of $2.96 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, while its non-GAAP net profit for Q2 is expected to be $1.2 billion [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased significantly, with an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and a 50% chance of another cut in October, driven by weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data [6][8] Group 3 - The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) serves as a benchmark for global innovative pharmaceuticals, including top biotech companies listed on Nasdaq, and is weighted by market capitalization [12] - The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (513290) is the only ETF that focuses on global innovative pharmaceuticals, allowing investors to access leading biotech firms with a low entry point [12] - The combination of potential interest rate cuts, ongoing AI innovations, and increased merger and acquisition activity is expected to catalyze a new wave of growth in the biotech sector [12]

当然，这场派对并非人人有份。当你看到Nvidia和Meta这些AI宠儿像火箭一样蹿升，股价直冲历史新高 时，你可能会觉得整个市场都沐浴在阳光下。但别傻了，这只是"七巨头"的独角戏。他们依然掌握着定 价权，依然能把财报做得像艺术品，依然能在这个"悄悄走向萎缩"的世界里，给你画一张"增长"的大 饼。 至于那些小盘股和周期性股票？它们就像派对上被遗忘的角落，努力跟上节奏，却总显得有些气喘吁 吁。 更令人玩味的是，当股市高歌猛进时，黄金和加密货币这两位"恐慌与投机"的双生子也同步飙升。这就 像是，你一边在庆祝经济复苏，一边又偷偷地把钱藏在床垫下，以防万一。这哪里是"哈利路亚"式的欢 呼，这分明是对美联储"降息果汁"的机械式对冲，生怕错过了任何一点刺激。 来源：外汇百科堂 上周五，当美国劳工部发布了一份让经济学家们集体"手足无措"的疲软就业报告时，华尔街的交易员们 并没有选择"手足无措"。恰恰相反，他们选择了"手舞足蹈"。 标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数在周一上演了一场自五月以来最为壮观的单日涨幅，这哪里是反弹？ 这简直是一份对"坏消息就是好消息"这本老旧剧本的"深情告白"。 是的，你没听错。当就业市场传来"咔嚓"一 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records discuss the performance of global capital markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. equities, amidst economic uncertainties and policy changes in China and the U.S. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments Economic Conditions and Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,600 points, indicating uncertainty in the previous bull market expectations, with the "anti-involution" sector leading the decline [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weakness, raising concerns about economic recession and interest rate cuts, which affected stock market performance [3][4] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. economic resilience versus recession risks is impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy and dollar liquidity [4] China's Economic Policies - China's "anti-involution" policy aims to end deflation expectations and has sparked hopes for economic recovery, but recent market reactions indicate challenges in achieving these goals [5][6] - The market's expectations for the "anti-involution" policy were not met following the Politburo meeting, leading to increased uncertainty about future economic trends [6][7] - July's manufacturing PMI data showed a significant decline in both domestic and external demand, further complicating the economic outlook [7] Export Performance - From April to June, China's external demand was strong, but July saw a weakening in new export orders and high-frequency export data, indicating the global economic changes are starting to affect Chinese exports [8] Labor Market and Monetary Policy in the U.S. - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248% in July, the highest in the current rate-cutting cycle [12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin interest rate cuts in September, with a total reduction of 100 basis points anticipated by early 2026 [18][19] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts are evident, with some members advocating for immediate cuts while others prefer a cautious approach [20][21] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation is significant, as they increase the cost of imported goods, which can lead to higher overall price levels [16] - The need for continuous monitoring of labor market and inflation data is emphasized, particularly with upcoming CPI data releases [22] - The potential for further declines in U.S. Treasury yields is noted, especially for the two-year bonds, which may drop to 3.5% or lower if rate cuts proceed as expected [24][25]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industries**: Rental, Express Delivery, Aviation, Chemical, Cobalt, Coal - **Companies**: China Shipbuilding Leasing, Bank of China Aviation Leasing, Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express, Huaxia Airlines, China Shenhua, Huayi Chemical, Wanhua, Hualu, Yangnong, Satellite Chemical, New Chemical, Huayou Cobalt, Likin, Shengtun, Jiayou International Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Labor Market Impact**: The U.S. labor market data has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, increasing the likelihood to 75%, which is favorable for leasing companies like China Shipbuilding Leasing and Bank of China Aviation Leasing [1][2] 2. **Express Delivery Industry**: The political bureau meeting focused on capacity governance rather than production governance, which is expected to accelerate the anti-involution in the express delivery industry. Price increases are anticipated in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong, with recommended companies including Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express [1][4] 3. **Aviation Industry Challenges**: Despite efforts to combat market involution, the aviation industry faces skepticism regarding joint price increases due to high transparency of data. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major A-share airlines [1][5] 4. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing a bottoming out, with PPI showing continuous negative growth. However, prices for certain chemicals like epoxy chloropropane and lithium carbonate are rising due to downstream replenishment [1][8][10] 5. **Cobalt Market Tightness**: The cobalt market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices expected to average 250,000 yuan/ton this year. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Likin are recommended for investment [1][19][20] 6. **Coal Industry Developments**: China Shenhua's acquisition of National Energy Group assets is expected to enhance its strength and positively impact the coal sector. Current coal prices remain strong despite recent declines in stock performance [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Chemical Industry Profitability**: The chemical industry saw a revenue growth of 1.4% in June 2025, but profit growth was negative at -9%, indicating a widening profit decline despite revenue increases [1][12] 2. **Market Sentiment in Chemical Sector**: The increase in Penghua Chemical ETF shares by 1.1 billion yuan indicates a growing market interest in the chemical sector, despite it being at a relative bottom compared to other cyclical sectors [1][13] 3. **Potential for Price Stabilization**: The possibility of production limits in the chemical sector could help stabilize prices, as seen in past successful interventions [1][16] 4. **Investment Opportunities in New Materials**: Companies like Dongcai Technology and Xinzhou Bang are highlighted as key players in the new materials sector, particularly in the high-performance resin supply chain [1][17] 5. **Gold and Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent trends show that while industrial metals have risen, precious metals like gold have not seen similar increases, suggesting potential investment opportunities in gold stocks [1][18]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The mid - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, although the multi - short game is intense, the bulls are mainly in control. Precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rebound. The support for London gold is 3340, with resistance at 3400 and 3450; the support for London silver is 37, with resistance at 38. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metal market stopped falling and rebounded. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 781.42 yuan/gram, up 1.36%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 1.3%. The main reason for the price increase was the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI and import - export data on Tuesday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy; on Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. [南华观点] - The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the multi - short game is fierce, but the bulls control the rhythm. The precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rise. For London gold, the support level is 3340, and the resistance levels are 3400 and 3450; for London silver, the support level is 37, and the resistance level is 38. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - SHFE gold main continuous contract: 781.42 yuan/gram, up 10.7 yuan, or 1.39%. SGX gold TD: 775.55 yuan/gram, up 8.37 yuan, or 1.09%. CME gold main contract: 3428.6 dollars/ounce, up 12.6 dollars, or 0.37%. SHFE silver main continuous contract: 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 121 yuan, or 1.36%. SGX silver TD: 8999 yuan/kilogram, up 111 yuan, or 1.25%. CME silver main contract: 37.445 dollars/ounce, up 0.34 dollars, or 0.92%. SHFE - TD gold: 5.87 yuan/gram, up 2.33 yuan, or 65.82%. SHFE - TD silver: 40 yuan/kilogram, up 10 yuan, or - 37.5%. CME gold - silver ratio: 91.5636, down 0.4995, or - 0.54% [5]. [库存持仓表] - SHFE gold inventory: 35889 kilograms, up 144 kilograms, or 0.4%. CME gold inventory: 1206.6166 tons, up 2.426 tons, or 0.2%. SHFE gold position: 217696 lots, down 1072 lots, or - 0.49%. SPDR gold position: 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons, or 0.18%. SHFE silver inventory: 1174.273 tons, down 9.684 tons, or - 0.82%. CME silver inventory: 15757.0987 tons, down 1.8489 tons, or - 0.01%. SGX silver inventory: 1368.435 tons, up 56.415 tons, or 4.3%. SHFE silver position: 371051 lots, up 5858 lots, or 1.6%. SLV silver position: 15021.873699 tons, down 34.7912 tons, or - 0.23% [14]. [股债商汇总览] - US Dollar Index: 98.757, up 0.0664, or 0.07%. US Dollar to Chinese Yuan: 7.1842, down 0.0093, or - 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44173.64 points, up 585.06 points, or 1.34%. WTI crude oil spot: 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or - 2.79%. LmeS copper 03: 9708.5 dollars/ton, up 75.5 dollars, or 0.78%. 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.22%, down 0.01%, or - 0.24%. 10 - year US real interest rate: 1.85%, down 0.05%, or - 2.63%. 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread: 0.54%, up 0.11%, or 25.58% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is advised to wait and see; iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to go long after a pullback; nickel is advised to wait and see or go short at high prices; tin and precious metals are for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are expected to fluctuate, with PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol in a fluctuating state; polyolefins in wide - range fluctuations; and the 09 contract of soda ash maintaining a short position [1][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and adjust; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short at high prices; corn is for range trading; soybean meal has limited upside; and oils are at high - level with increased risk of a callback [1][39]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various futures products in different industries. It considers multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and international trade situations to predict the future price trends of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade issues, Fed policy expectations, and domestic market conditions, A - share new account openings increased in July, and the market may fluctuate slightly during the mid - report disclosure period in late August. Index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on bond interest income, the short - term impact on the bond market is limited. With overseas data weakening and possible mediocre July social financing data, the bond market has some positive factors, but the basis for a sharp rise is lacking. 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate in a small range around 1.70 [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the adjustment of relevant statements in the Politburo meeting, the market's over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating strongly. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decrease in hot metal demand, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has regional differentiation, and demand is relatively stable. Coke supply is affected by cost and profit, and demand is affected by steel mills and traders. Both markets are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant influencing factors [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and international trade policies, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Technically, there is support at the 77600 level [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on bauxite supply and the expected resumption of a large - scale mine, the upward space of ore prices is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [13]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with limited consumption growth. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season of demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the supply resumption and downstream demand [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US employment data, trade negotiations, and Fed policy, precious metals are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export sustainability, PVC is expected to fluctuate shortly, with the 09 contract focusing on the 4950 - 5150 range [23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is showing a slowdown in growth, and the market lacks substantial positive factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2400 - 2600 range, and there may be opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract on dips [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamental positives are limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. The price is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range [27][28]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 14000. Although there is a short - term rebound expectation, the overall situation is not optimistic [29][30]. - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1680 - 1820 range [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is slightly increasing, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product price [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of increased PE demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: In the initial stage of a negative feedback cycle, with large delivery pressure on the 09 contract, it is recommended to maintain a short position [35][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are increasing, and the Xinjiang output is expected to be good. The downstream consumption is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [36]. - **Apples**: The spot market is weak, the new fruit growth is normal, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Jujubes**: In the growth period of jujube trees, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to new developments in the production area [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts and secondary fattening, but the long - term supply is increasing. Different contracts have different trends, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39][41]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the supply pressure is large. The 09 contract is recommended to go short at high prices, and the 12 and 01 contracts can be considered to go long on dips [41][43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to range between 2250 - 2350. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there may be a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips for some contracts [46]. - **Oils**: The short - term risk of a high - level callback is increasing, but the callback range is limited. It is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [47][51].

2025.08. 05 本文字数：1224，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周一，美国三大股指均创下自5月27日以来的最大涨幅，投资者选择逢低买入， 就业数据低于预期 引发外界对9月降息的猜测。 中长期美债收益率回落，基准10年期利率下降2.8个基点至4.19%，与利率预期关联密切的2年期利 率下跌2.7个基点至3.68%。 道指涨585.06点，涨幅1.34%，报44173.64点，纳指涨1.95%，报21053.58点，标普500指数涨 1.47%，报6329.94点。美股 全市场超7700只个股上涨。 明 星 科 技 股 普 遍 走 强 ， 英 伟 达 涨 3.6% ， Meta 涨 3.5% ， 谷 歌 涨 3.1% ， 微 软 涨 2.2% ， 苹 果 涨 0.5%，亚马逊跌1.4%，特斯拉涨2.2%，此前这家电动汽车制造商授予首席执行官马斯克9600万 股股权奖励，价值约290亿美元。 个股方面，Spotify涨5.0%，该音乐流媒体平台宣布计划从9月起提高其在特定市场的高级个人订阅 的月度价格。 巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司跌2.7%，该公司周六披露的季度营业利润有所下降。 纳斯 ...