随着美国总统特朗普屡次抨击美联储且全球地缘政治动荡加剧，德国与意大利正面临将黄金储备从纽约运回的呼声。 本周一项对70多家全球央行的调查显示，鉴于担忧在危机中取用黄金的能力，更多央行正考虑将黄金存储于国内。 曾属德国左翼党、现加入民粹主义政党BSW的前欧洲议会议员法比奥·德马西（Fabio De Masi）对《金融时报》表示，"在动荡 时期，有充分理由"将更多黄金转移至欧洲或德国本土。 世界黄金协会数据显示，德国与意大利分别持有3352吨和2452吨黄金储备，位居全球第二、第三。两国均高度依赖位于曼哈顿 的纽约联邦储备银行作为保管方，各自超三分之一的黄金存储于美国。据《金融时报》计算，两国存美黄金总市值超2450亿美 元。 全球各国央行的黄金储备排行 这主要源于历史原因，同时也反映出纽约与伦敦并列为全球最重要黄金交易枢纽的地位。然而，特朗普反复无常的政策制定及 整体地缘政治动荡，正推动欧洲部分地区就该黄金的存储安全展开公开辩论。本月初，这位美国总统称若美联储不降息，他可 能不得不"强行采取行动"。 在德国，将黄金运输回国的主张正吸引来自左右翼两派的支持。 巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟资深前议员彼得·高韦勒（Pete ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran could significantly impact international oil prices, potentially driving them to a range of $120-150 per barrel in extreme scenarios [1][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs' commodity research team has reassessed risk scenarios due to Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that current oil prices include a geopolitical risk premium of about $10 per barrel [2]. - The market is preparing for a significant increase in oil prices over the coming months, although long-term expectations remain largely unchanged [2][3]. - In the event of a supply disruption, Brent crude oil prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, depending on the recovery of Iranian supply and OPEC+ production adjustments [2]. Group 2: Potential Disruption Scenarios - Four potential conflict escalation scenarios have been constructed by Goldman Sachs, with varying impacts on oil prices [4]. - In the baseline scenario, if geopolitical tensions persist without significant supply disruptions, Brent crude is expected to maintain a risk premium of $5-7, trading around $72 per barrel [5]. - If Israel attacks Iranian oil-related assets, oil prices could rise to the $80-90 per barrel range due to expected Iranian retaliation [6]. - In a scenario where Iran retaliates against regional assets, oil prices could clearly rise towards $100 per barrel [8]. - The most severe scenario involves Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 15-17 million barrels of oil supply daily, which could push prices to the $120-150 range [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The geopolitical tensions have led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, impacting currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars [10]. - A rapid increase in oil prices to $100 could negatively impact risk assets, with the S&P 500 potentially facing a decline of 200-300 points, particularly affecting AI-related stocks due to high concentration [10]. - The response in interest rate markets is complex, with potential inflation concerns from rising oil prices, but the Federal Reserve may overlook temporary price changes [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent oil price may continue to show high - volatility trends under the influence of highly uncertain geopolitical factors, and it is difficult to have an obvious trend. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation, but beware of the risk of a rapid short - term correction due to geopolitical cooling [12][66]. Summary by Directory 1. Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price was affected by geopolitical factors and reached new highs since February. It is expected that political factors will remain the core support for the oil price this week, with some upward potential. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach for the domestic energy sector, but beware of short - term rapid oil price corrections due to geopolitical cooling [12]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the overall oil price was strong, mainly affected by the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East. Although the market briefly declined due to the "US - Iran call" news over the weekend, subsequent events such as the US joining the action against Iran and Iran's tough stance boosted the oil price again [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macro - aspects - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in the June meeting, which was in line with market expectations. The semi - annual monetary policy report also reiterated "wait - and - see before cutting interest rates", suppressing the short - term interest rate cut expectations [23]. - There is uncertainty about the successor to the Fed Chairman. Trump's criticism of Powell may affect subsequent Fed decisions and market expectations [26]. - The Iran - Israel conflict continued to escalate last week. Israel aimed to "eliminate Khamenei", and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US also launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, making it difficult for the conflict to cool down in the short term and keeping the oil price volatile [30]. 3.2 Supply - aspects - In May, OPEC achieved a production increase of 183,000 barrels per day, and OPEC + increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in total [33]. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. If the war escalates, it may cut off oil transportation through the strait, affecting about 22 million barrels of daily global oil transportation, which would impact the global supply - demand pattern [34]. - Saudi Arabia's oil production increased, while Iraq compensated for production cuts, and the US production remained stable [33][41][44]. 3.3 Demand - aspects - There is a slight improvement in summer demand expectations, but the manufacturing industries in China and the US continue to contract. However, the production of refined oil products continues to pick up [47][50][56]. 3.4 Inventory - aspects - US crude oil inventories from June 5 - 13 showed a significant decline, with API inventories dropping by 10.133 million barrels and EIA inventories dropping by 11.473 million barrels, which may support the WTI price [58]. - US refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. Gasoline and refined oil inventories increased last week, which may lead to a weakening of gasoline and diesel prices and a potential narrowing of the crack spread [61]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the oil price was strong, though the weekly gain was limited over the weekend. The supply - side uncertainty in the commodity attribute, the Fed's interest rate decision in the financial attribute, and the high uncertainty of the Iran - Israel conflict in the political attribute all affect the oil price. Overall, the oil price may be highly volatile, and a bullish approach is recommended with caution for short - term corrections [66].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - **Overseas Supply**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]

美国对伊朗核设施打击为何未撼动全球市场？ 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊 朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多（核设施）已不存在"。 然而，全球金融市场对美国袭击伊朗核设施的反应相对温和。据华尔街见闻此前提及，周一，美股期货低开后跌幅 收窄，原油、黄金冲高后回落转跌。截至下午1时，全球MSCI指数仅下跌0.12%。 传统避险资产表现分化，日元兑美元下跌0.64%，现货黄金价格下滑0.23%至每盎司3360美元，美元指数上涨 0.35%。 分析推测，此次美国军事行动后的市场波动明显较小，主要是因为投资者预期特朗普政府的军事干预将是短暂的， 主要目标是威慑而非长期冲突。 地缘政治风险被视为可控 市场对美国军事行动的温和反应主要源于投资者对冲突范围的乐观预期。 Wedbush管理董事Dan Ives表示，市场将对伊朗的袭击视为利好消息，因为该地区的核威胁已经消除。 他进一步表示，目前看不到伊朗与以色列冲突向更广泛地区蔓延的迹象，事件影响较为"孤立"。 其他行业专家也普遍认为，尽管事态严重，但并未构成全球市场的系统 ...

【导读】市场回暖，低开高走 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今天的市场低开高走，情绪回暖，一起看看发生了什么事情。 A股低开高走 6月23日，亚洲市场早盘遭遇些许恐慌情绪， 中东战火蔓延以及石油供应中断将对东亚石油进口国造成冲击 ，但 随后情绪转 暖， 股市投资者似乎并不太担心。 A股市场全天低开高走，三大指数集体上涨。截至 收盘沪指涨0.65%，深成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%。 银行股继续走强，工商银行、建设银行等多股创新高。 为何今天市场低开高走？有分析指出，美国加入以色列和伊朗之间的战争，乍看之下似乎是一个会引发市场暴跌的地缘政治热 点。然而，投资者对此次局势升级基本不以为意，许多策略师认为冲突是可控的，甚至对某些风险资产而言可能是利好。 市场共4446只个股上涨，84只个股涨停，844只个股下跌。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | 84 | | 涨幅 > 7% | 150 | | 涨幅 5-7% | 163 | | 涨幅 3-5% | 629 | | 涨幅 0-3% | 3504 | | 跌幅 0-3% | 776 | | 跌幅 3-5% ...

来源：Wind 地缘方面，中东局势仍是短期焦点，美国周六晚间对伊朗发动袭击，虽表面旨在推动冲突解决，但实质加剧中东对立情绪，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库 萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东 部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易都要途经霍尔木兹海峡。 壳牌CEO瓦埃尔·萨万表示："如果这一动脉被阻断，无论出于什么原因，全球贸易都会遭受巨大冲击。我们已做好应对最坏情况的准备。" 霍尔木兹海峡相关风险事件下，黄金价格平均单日波动幅度达±3%，且地缘冲突升级后 1 个月内黄金ETF持仓量平均增长 5%-8%。我们认为下周黄金市场或 有较大波动，目前黄金经过一段时间的反复震荡后，随着中东局势的升级，当前金价位置值得大家关注。 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。国际现货黄金抹去日内涨幅，最高一度逼近3400美元大关，高开后持续走低，现 报3358.8美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.26%，失守3360美元/盎司。COMEX黄金 ...

盛宝银行驻新加坡首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示："市场目前将美国对伊朗的袭击视为可控事件， 而非全面战争的开始。避险资金流入有限，说明投资者认为这只是一次性升级，不会干扰全球石油供应 或贸易。""市场的反应可能不是因为冲突升级本身，而是对长期不确定性的缓解预期。如果伊朗的核能 力被显著削弱，部分投资者可能将其解读为'伪装下的降温'——是地缘政治风险的减少，而非增加。但 话虽如此，若伊朗采取报复或威胁霍尔木兹海峡运输安全，市场情绪将迅速转向，并迫使投资者重新定 价地缘风险。" 道明证券驻新加坡高级亚太利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示："至少可以说，市场对对周末事件的反应 是温和的。价格走势暗示市场预期这是一次短暂的冲突，冲突升级最终将走向冲突缓和。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者正屏息观望伊朗是否会对美国袭击其核设施进行报复，全球股市周 一下滑，油价一度触及五个月高位，美元走强。 尽管中东局势在过去这个周末升级，但市场反应迄今仍然克制，投资者仍处于观望状态。以下是一些市 场分析师对此事件的评论。 澳大利亚联邦银行外汇策略师Carol Kong表示："到目前为止，油价对不断升级的 ...

美国国内或面临恐袭 智通财经APP了解到，美国对伊朗实施史无前例的空袭后，伊朗誓言报复美国与以色列、以色列攻击毫 无收手迹象，美国国内面临的"恐怖活动威胁"指数全面升级，伊朗国内封锁霍尔木兹海峡的呼声愈发响 亮，全球交易员以及各国政府的经济政策制定者们在一瞬间皆草木皆兵。随着伊朗政府主导的新一 轮"报复浪潮"箭在弦上，全球股债汇乃至大宗商品交易市场24小时关注着德黑兰方面有关报复美国与以 色列方面的一举一动。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普领导的美国政府在上周末决意动用大型钻地炸弹，这是华盛顿在数十年敌对后 首次对伊朗采取直接军事行动，使得中东局势进入未知领域，并在特朗普政府主导的贸易战已令世界经 济高度不确定之际进一步全球抬升地缘政治风险，直接威胁到全球能源供给体系。 亚洲周一早盘，国际基准布伦特原油一度大涨近6%，至每桶 81.40 美元。华尔街分析师们纷纷警告， 若伊朗采取进一步报复行动来大规模管控甚至全面封锁霍尔木兹海峡，国际油价基准——布伦特原油期 货价格逼近100美元指日可待，这一轮油价猛烈涨势始于6月13日以色列对于伊朗的突然袭击。此外，周 一美元走强，美国三大股指期货下跌，风险资产之一的比特币自5月初 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> | 名称 | 代码 . | 现价 | 张跌涨幅结 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 欧线集运2 ... ec2508 | | 1875.0 | -91.9 -4.67% | | 2 多品硅2508 ps2508 | | 30615 | -1045 -3.30% | | 3 菜籽2507 | RS507 | 5125 | -153 -2.90% | | 4 尿素2509 | 60580 | 1711 | -35 -2.00% | | 5 鸡蛋2508 | 142508 | 3569 | -53 -1.46% | | 6 甲西享2509 MA509 | | 2504 | -34 -1.34% | 交割品牌调整，纸浆、原木涨幅居前，纸浆盘中一度涨近4%，但日内逐步回落！集运、多晶硅领跌，集运盘中一度跌超6%，多晶硅跌破3 万关口，再创上市以来新低！ 光大期货：西南复产上量，多晶硅身陷囹圄 周一，多晶硅延续上周跌势，价格进一步逼近整数关口，日内跌幅超2%，并伴随10%以上增仓。现货价格来看，多晶硅P型下跌1300元/ ...