Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 trade deadline, urging countries to reach agreements with the U.S. before this date to avoid higher tariffs [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Trump stated that the government has the flexibility to extend or shorten the deadline as needed, indicating a willingness to adapt [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that while some countries have proposed good agreements, it may be challenging to complete all negotiations before the tariffs set to take effect on April 2 [1] - Mnuchin expressed optimism that if agreements can be reached with 10 to 12 out of 18 key trading partners, along with another 20 important trade relationships, all trade negotiations could potentially be completed by Labor Day (September 1) [1]

美国财长贝森特：可能会对20个国家重新实行对等关税，或者如果我们认为对方是在善意谈判，这些国家的关税可能维持在10%。 ...

美国总统特特朗普表示，由于加拿大推进实施数字服务税，他决定立即终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将在未来一周内公布对加拿大的新关 税。特朗普在社交媒体上写道，"基于这一极其过分的税收，我们将立即终止与加拿大的所有贸易磋商。我们将在七天内通知加拿大，他们与 美国开展贸易所需支付的关税。" 美元兑加元涨幅扩大至超过0.83%，刷新日高至1.3755。加拿大股指再次转跌，日内迄今形成冲高回落走势。加拿大10年期国债收益率短线下 挫2个基点，刷新日低至3.28%下方，日内整体跌约6个基点。 在（加拿大的）南边，标普500指数涨幅收窄至将近0.3%，道指目前涨0.8%，纳指涨幅收窄至将近0.2%。 ...

特朗普：立即终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判 金十数据6月28日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："我们刚刚得知，加拿大（一个极难与之开展贸易的国家）多年来 竟对我们的农民征收高达400%的乳制品关税——刚刚又宣布对美国科技公司征收数字服务税，这是对美国直接且公然的攻击。 显然，他们在效仿欧盟，而欧盟此前也采取了同样做法，目前正与我们就此进行磋商。鉴于这项恶劣的税收， 我特此宣布立即 终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将在未来七天内告知加拿大与美国开展贸易时需缴纳的关税。" ...

美国总统特朗普：（当被问及对批评他关税的人有什么评论）回到商学院去。 ...

我认为美国将与印度达成协议。 一些国家会因关税而感到失望。 标普500指数维持不到0.7%的涨幅，美国总统特朗普宣称：已经达成4-5项贸易协议。 将在一周半内、或更早的时间发出贸易函。 ...

美国总统特朗普：在下周的某个时候，我们将致函各国，告诉他们必须支付的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the first time since February, rebounding 23% from the lows caused by tariffs in April [1] - The market has shown a rapid recovery, with the potential to return to record closing levels in the shortest time after experiencing at least a 15% decline over 89 trading days [1] - Factors such as easing tensions in the Middle East and trade negotiations between the U.S. and major partners have boosted investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the market perceives tariffs as less burdensome than previously anticipated, contributing to a sense of recovery [1] - There are signs of resilient earnings, with economic activity remaining active and inflation not significantly rising [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

贝森特：对中国的20%芬太尼关税仍然生效，目前对中国新加的关税是30%，中国对美国的关税是10%。 ...