Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates has shifted market expectations, with a significant reduction in the probability of a rate cut in September from 80% to 40% [1] - The upcoming PCE price index data is crucial for assessing persistent inflation pressures, with economists predicting a rise in core PCE month-on-month from 0.2% to 0.3% [1] - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the two-year yield rising by 7 basis points on Wednesday and then retreating by 1 basis point to 3.93% on Thursday [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank's U.S. interest rate strategy head indicated that the market should focus on the delayed possibility of rate cuts, with the first expected cut not occurring until December [2] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current labor market conditions and inflation levels do not warrant a rate cut [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April, indicating persistent inflation concerns in the market [2] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [3] - Powell suggested that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3] - The demand for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) is rising among investors, reflecting a growing concern over inflation risks in the current economic environment [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential delay in interest rate cuts, shifting market focus to upcoming inflation data [1] - Following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, market sentiment reversed, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 80% to 40% [1] - Economists expect the core PCE monthly rate to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank anticipated a hawkish outcome from the Fed meeting, with expectations for the first rate cut pushed to December [5] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current economic conditions do not warrant a rate cut [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen by approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April [5] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [6] - Powell indicated that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence their decision-making [6] - Investors are increasingly seeking to hedge against inflation risks, as evidenced by the increased allocation to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the federal funds rate as expected, with two dissenters advocating a 25 - basis - point cut. Powell's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a September rate cut, and after the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently. The Fed will make decisions based on future data and has left room to delay rate cuts [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Outcomes - The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4 - 1/4 to 4 - 1/2 percent. Governors Bowman and Waller voted against, preferring a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was in line with their previous statements [3][8]. - After the meeting, yields on 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US bonds rose by 6, 5, and 2 basis points respectively. The probabilities of rate cuts in September, October, and December according to CME FedWatch dropped to 43%, 64%, and 87% respectively [3]. Powell's Press Conference Key Information Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell emphasized that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is in the early stage, with monthly tariff revenue reaching $30 billion, and only a small part borne by exporters. Upstream companies and retailers plan to pass on costs to consumers [5]. - He believed that there is still a long way to assess the full impact of tariffs, suggesting that there may not be a clear judgment even in September [5]. - He stated that the Fed "looking through" temporary inflation only means not raising rates, not a reason for rate cuts, and the Fed will ensure the "one - time" nature of the impact [5]. Labor Market - The labor market is robust but has downward risks. Although new job growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate is low, and indicators such as the quit rate and the ratio of job openings to the unemployed are relatively stable. However, the low unemployment rate is due to both a slowdown in labor demand and a reduction in labor supply caused by immigration policies [5]. Economic Growth - Powell downplayed the recognition of "moderate" economic growth slowdown in the meeting statement, saying that the weakening of GDP and final private consumption was in line with expectations. He reiterated that policy focuses on the dual goals of "inflation and employment," suggesting that as long as the job market is stable, the growth slowdown is not enough to trigger a policy shift [6]. Uncertainty - Powell thought the level of uncertainty was the same as in June. Although the current estimate of tariff levels has converged, future uncertainty is still high, and the meeting statement removed the expression of "reduced uncertainty" [6]. Inflation - Powell expected that excluding tariffs, current inflation remains above the 2% target. The composition of inflation pressure has changed, with sticky service inflation easing and tariff increases pushing up prices of some goods [6]. Fed Independence - Powell firmly stated that the Fed will not consider government fiscal needs to maintain its independence, warning that if the Fed loses independence, the government could manipulate rate cuts to influence elections [7]. Future Policy Outlook - The Fed will continue to be data - dependent, and its current policy is in a "moderately restrictive" range. It will only shift to a more neutral stance when the risks to inflation and employment are "fully balanced," implying a greater focus on inflation currently [7]. - There will be two rounds of employment and inflation data before September, and the Fed will make decisions based on future data, leaving room to delay rate cuts [7]. Suggestions - Powell's statements seem to be somewhat inconsistent with the economic assessment in the FOMC statement. It is recommended to follow the statements of other voting members to determine if this reflects the overall tendency of the committee [7]. - Powell's avoidance of giving a September rate - cut guidance may trigger stronger pressure from the Trump administration [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a quick reversal after initially rising, reflecting a cooling optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts in September [1][3] - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, details indicate a slowdown in consumer spending and private investment, suggesting economic fatigue under high interest rates [3][4] - The market reacted negatively to Fed Chair Powell's comments, which emphasized persistent inflation and a resilient job market, undermining expectations for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer companies showed stable performance but revealed structural contradictions due to high baseline pressures and weak consumption [4] - Starbucks reported better-than-expected earnings but saw a slight decline in stock price, indicating market concerns about future profit margins [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is around 65%, but this is slowly decreasing as inflation data and Fed attitudes diverge [4][5] Group 3 - The market's current expectation is for a "soft landing," but uncertainty around the pace of rate cuts is making investors cautious [5] - The upcoming earnings reports will be crucial in determining whether the U.S. stock market can maintain its recent upward trend [5] - If the market realizes that rate cuts are not guaranteed, volatility may increase again [5]

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：今天凌晨2:00，美联储利率决议显示维持利率不变，这是连续第五次暂停降息。鲍威尔在随 后的讲话中表示，尚未就9月的降息作出任何决定，且当前的政策有利于防范通胀的风险。 技术面：黄金昨日延续下跌走势，3300美元关口跌破，表现弱势，小时图来看，结构依旧为空头趋势， 上方关注3310美元一线的阻力，下方关注3260美元的支撑。 原油方面：昨日晚间，美国能源署（EIA）公布的当周原油库存录得增加769.8万桶，至4.267亿桶，高 于前值的减少316.9万桶和预期的减少128.8万桶，利空油价。美国当周汽油库存减少272.4万桶至2.284亿 桶，降幅超过预期，利多油价。 特朗普在本周二（7月29日）发布威胁称，如果俄罗斯在10天之内没有结束俄乌冲突，那么美国将对俄 罗斯征收额外关税，投资者担忧会导致原油供应趋紧，受此影响，油价近日持续走强。 另一方面，继日本、欧盟之后，韩国与美国达成贸易协定框架，美国从韩国进口的商品关税下调至 15%，同时韩国向美国提供3500亿美元用于美国拥有且控制的投资项目，以及采购1000亿美元的美国能 源产品。关税贸易局势的缓和，有利于缓解投资者的担忧，原油需求 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, with Powell indicating no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The ADP report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous decrease of 23,000, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 3%, exceeding the previous value of 2.4% and the expected -0.5%, further pressuring gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices fell from around $3,330 to a low of $3,267 after the Fed's decision [1] - Analysts suggest that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50%, although two rate cuts are still anticipated this year if strong data continues [1] - Technically, gold is in a bearish trend, with resistance at $3,310 and support at $3,260 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, which was higher than the previous decrease of 3.169 million barrels and the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels, negatively affecting oil prices [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.724 million barrels to 22.84 million barrels, exceeding expectations and providing support for oil prices [2] - Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine conflict does not end within ten days raised concerns about potential supply tightness, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - A trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea, which includes a reduction in tariffs and significant investments, is expected to boost short-term oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating between $64 and $69.50, with a recent breakout above $69.50 indicating a higher probability of further increases, targeting $71.70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded after a decline, suggesting that the recent pullback may be nearing its end, with potential for further increases [3] - The index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with key support at 40,500 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop, reaching the lowest point since early April, erasing gains from the past three and a half months [4] - There are no signs of a bottoming out in the hourly chart, indicating a potential for further declines [4] - Key support for copper is noted at $4.21, with resistance at $4.47 [4]

铜是全球消费量第三大的金属，仅次于铁和铝。根据美国地质调查局的数据，美国大约有一半的铜依赖进口，其中大部分来自智利。 隔夜，美股三大指数一度跳水下跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数涨0.15%。 消息面上，关税迎密集进展。 隔夜，现货黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元，创下6月30日以来新低。今日欧市盘中，黄金 小幅上涨，目前在3310元附近徘徊。 降息预期大变脸！ 首先是，特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。 公告显示，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍 征收50%的关税。 当天，在白宫宣布这一关税后，纽约铜价下跌逾18%。 其次是，特朗普称美国将对韩国征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Fed's latest statement was perceived as slightly dovish, acknowledging a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and removing previous language that suggested reduced economic uncertainty, indicating greater downside risks to employment goals [1] Group 2 - During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell's tone shifted to a more hawkish stance, emphasizing that tariffs only pose a one-time shock to price levels and that the Fed will ensure tariffs do not trigger inflation [2] - Powell noted that the current labor market is in a state of supply-demand balance with low unemployment rates, suggesting that key indicators should focus on unemployment rather than employment growth, which may slow significantly [2] - The hawkish signals from the press conference surprised the market, leading to a sell-off in short-term government bonds, contradicting expectations that Powell would pave the way for a rate cut in September [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is experiencing fluctuations near a two-month high, supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and Japan's central bank raising its inflation forecast while keeping rates unchanged [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish position has strengthened the dollar, with the US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate coming in at 3%, which was better than expected, further boosting the dollar's performance [4] - The market is now focused on the upcoming tariff deadline on August 1, where countries failing to reach a trade agreement with the US will face high tariffs, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1] Group 2 - Other major currencies are under pressure due to the strength of the dollar, with the euro recently rising by 0.1% to 1.1412 USD but having fallen by 3.2% this month [5] - The British pound is hovering near a two-and-a-half-month low, currently at 1.3255 USD, with a monthly decline of approximately 3.5% [5] - The Australian dollar has increased by 0.3% to 0.6454 USD, but has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 2% this month [8]