Key Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which includes the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, creating a more stable environment for negotiations and potentially benefiting various sectors in the A-share market [2][3] - The electronic industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with high growth in segments driven by AI infrastructure, while consumer electronics are supported by government subsidies, leading to stable performance in the Apple supply chain [19][22] - The military industry is poised for growth due to increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly following the recent India-Pakistan conflict, which has enhanced the visibility of Chinese military equipment [22][24] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in profitability, with expectations of improved demand driven by real estate policies and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] - The banking sector is benefiting from a series of financial policies aimed at optimizing credit structures, with a positive outlook for long-term value realization in bank stocks [32][37] Electronic Industry - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a recovery with accelerated domestic substitution, while the consumer electronics segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from AI and global expansion [16][17] - The PCB and LED markets are experiencing growth due to increased demand from AI applications and government support, respectively [18][19] Military Industry - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the effectiveness of Chinese military equipment, potentially leading to increased military trade opportunities with countries in the Middle East and along the Belt and Road [22][23] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to recover, with improved profitability driven by stabilizing demand in the real estate market and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a comprehensive set of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools aimed at enhancing credit quality and supporting economic growth [32][37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The joint statement of the China-US high-level economic and trade talks was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. This eases global trade tensions and boosts market confidence [1][2][6]. - Domestically, the economy maintains steady growth and flexible policy adjustments. Overseas, major economies have differentiated monetary policies but generally focus on inflation risks. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations helps stabilize global market expectations and promotes international trade and investment [1]. - For different varieties: - **Crude oil**: Prices rose due to the progress of China - US talks but the涨幅 was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - **Gold**: With the positive news of tariff easing, gold and silver prices declined. However, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand still provide support [3][20]. - **Stock index**: Stimulated by positive factors, the stock index is likely to break upward. For stock index futures, a bullish attitude is recommended, and for stock index options, a long - straddle strategy can be used [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released, with significant tariff reductions and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Minister of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will help enterprises overcome difficulties and promote foreign - trade development [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle production and sales growing by 43.8% and 44.2% respectively [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 3.26%, and London gold fell 2.73% [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Finance** - **Stock Index**: Affected by the positive news of China - US tariff negotiations, the stock index rebounded. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and use a long - straddle strategy for stock index options [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices generally fell. With the progress of China - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined with increased short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose due to China - US talks but the increase was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded. The short - term trend is expected to continue to rise [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market may rebound in the short term [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed up. The market is affected by inventory and supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term trend needs to be observed [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined due to tariff easing but still have some support [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and other factors [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also fluctuate widely. Market expectations for supply improvement have been partially digested [22]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum contract may be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and a price cut is expected [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand has support in the short term but may be weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: The steel market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports remaining stable [29]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend of oils and fats is strong. The supply of soybeans is expected to increase, and the palm oil inventory may rise [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term trend of soybean meal is strong, and the increase in US soybean imports may have a negative impact on the domestic market [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week but may enter an oscillating phase [33]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose due to macro - level positives. The short - term trend is strong [34]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment improved due to tariff easing. The short - term outlook is positive, but the main obstacle is the excess of shipping capacity [35].

Financial Market Response - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement of tariff reductions, with spot gold prices dropping to $3,220 per ounce, marking a 3.21% decline, reflecting optimism about the economic outlook [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index surged nearly 2.98%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, indicating a favorable response to the easing of US-China trade tensions [3] - US stock index futures also saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.8% and the Nasdaq increasing by 3.6%, showcasing a notable boost in investor confidence [3] - The Chinese yuan reached a six-month high, signaling increased market confidence in the Chinese economy [3] - European shipping companies, such as Maersk, saw stock prices rise by nearly 12%, reflecting the positive impact of improved global trade conditions [3] Economic Perspectives - Economists view the tariff adjustments as a significant positive development, with expectations that the new rates will alleviate concerns over short-term global supply chain disruptions [4] - The chief economist at ING estimated that reducing tariffs to 30% could restore normal trade activities between the US and China, leading to an upward revision of China's annual economic growth forecast to 4.7% [4] - The temporary nature of the tariff reductions is acknowledged, with the need for further negotiations and potential agreements in the coming months [4] Exporter Insights - Exporters are encouraged by the joint statement, viewing the next 90 days as a critical period to capitalize on reduced cost pressures and increase business activity [5] - Companies are expected to expedite shipments and enhance their presence in the US market during this window of opportunity [5] - Some businesses are shifting from passive to proactive international trade strategies, focusing on building competitive advantages in anticipation of future changes in trade policies [6]

Section 1: General Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided in the content - **Report Core Views**: - For gold 2508, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The overall view is to be bearish in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. The overall view is to take a wait - and - see approach because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Section 2: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: On the night of May 12, Shanghai gold fell to the 760 level and fluctuated, corresponding to New York gold fluctuating around 3200. Attention should be paid to the technical support at this position, and if it is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" on May 12, Sino - US economic and trade relations entered a stage of easing, which reduced global trade uncertainties in the short - term. As a result, safe - haven assets such as gold and government bonds were adjusted, and the risk appetite of the stock market and commodities increased [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 during the day yesterday, and then opened lower and moved lower at night, falling back to around 124,000. The nickel price did not respond much to macro - level positive news [4]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban policy has increased. It is expected that the Philippine government will implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, which has largely promoted the nickel price to rebound from the bottom. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. The inventory of stainless steel is at a high level and the destocking is slow, and the price continues to be weak, while nickel sulfate is running stably. Technically, the futures price faces certain technical pressure at the end - April high after rebounding from the bottom and is expected to maintain a sideways movement [4].