Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 莱粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 一颗星代表偏空，判断趋势有下跌的驱动，但盘面可操作性不强 [1][9] - 鸡蛋: 一颗星代表偏空，判断趋势有下跌的驱动，但盘面可操作性不强 [1][9] Core Views - 农产品各品种受多种因素影响，走势各异，需综合考虑天气、政策、供需等因素进行投资决策 [2][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 黑龙江和内蒙古大豆处于结荚时段，本周东北地区降水利于生长，豆一和豆二价差缩窄，豆一弱于进口大豆，进口大豆短期天气风险不大，价格止跌企稳，后续关注国产大豆产区天气及震荡指引 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 截至8月3日当周，美国大豆优良率为69%，依旧处于历史同期高位，未来两周美豆主产区降雨略低于常值，温度先降后升，土壤湿度好于去年同期，国内油厂压榨率稳定，周度压榨量超200万吨，豆粕库存增至百万吨左右，中美贸易关税未公布最终方案，美豆或有早期丰产预期，延续弱势，关税问题明朗前，豆粕行情先以震荡对待 [2] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日国内商品大部分上涨，豆棕油表现强势，均大幅增仓，豆油基差止跌反弹，国内豆油出口窗口打开，边际压力缓和，关税矛盾下远期豆油供应端有不确定性风险，四季度是需求旺季，需谨慎中期市场情绪发酵，美豆油长期需求受产能扩张和政策支持，价格底部有支撑，小型炼厂豁免问题未解决，影响价格波动和阶段需求，预计中期美豆油震荡中性或偏强，国内外豆油价差有向零值或负值波动的概率，今年内外价差收敛靠国内补涨概率大，对豆油棕榈油维持逢低多配思路，棕榈油中期面临四季度减产周期，需放大波动空间 [2] 菜粕&菜油 - 国内菜系今日均收涨，菜粕未摆脱窄区间震荡格局，菜油受植物油板块提振但走势最弱，加拿大菜籽主产区天气利于生长，优良率与单产预估较好，未来半月降雨预计较好，天气升水有望缩窄，加菜籽新作期价预计在700加元/吨以下波动，加拿大菜籽2025/26年度总供给下滑，但因欧盟下调进口需求、中加经贸关系存隐忧，加菜籽平衡表紧张与否取决于中加关系走向，中加菜系短期维持区间震荡，关注中加经贸关系前景 [4] 玉米 - 8月5日，中储粮进口玉米拍卖19.84万吨，成交率13%，截至目前共进行11次拍卖，共计约268.8万吨，粮源投放影响市场预期，大连玉米期货持续下跌，山东现货稳定供应，国内玉米市场未出现政策引导的供需结构性转变，关注流通环节阶段性供应情况，美玉米价格下行背景下，大连玉米期货或继续底部偏弱运行 [5] 生猪 - 生猪期货偏弱震荡回落，现货价格今日基本稳定，8月规模企业生猪计划出栏量环比增加6.6%，中期生猪供应量充足，政策驱动行情上周降温，生猪期货大概率已见顶，后期震荡回落概率加大，建议产业以逢高套期保值为主，关注行业出栏节奏、出栏体重及产能变化 [6] 鸡蛋 - 鸡蛋现货价格部分地区稳定，部分地区下跌，盘面09合约减仓下跌，其他合约不同程度反弹，7月在产存栏继续增加，有冷库蛋出库压力，盘面越远月合约越强、越抗跌，未来价格拐点取决于行业大量淘汰产能出清过剩产能的时间，26年之后的期货合约走势比25年下半年的期货合约强劲，预计在市场交易蛋价周期性反转前这一特征将持续存在，盘面仍以熊市周期未完结看待，套利建议反套思路 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal Products**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to experience large - range oscillations. For soybean meal, the weak fundamentals and the cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs lead to this situation. For rapeseed meal, factors such as the recovery of global rapeseed production, import tariffs, and the substitution effect of soybean meal contribute to the multi - empty factor entanglement [1][3][7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for the consumption of the palm oil market, the possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia may suppress short - term prices [1][8][9]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The new cotton growth in the US is still good despite a slight decline in the excellent - good rate. In China, the increase in sown area and yield, along with the fast commercial de - stocking and the recovery of demand, limit the downside space before the new cotton is launched [1][11][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is also recommended to be cautiously bullish. There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. However, there are still risks of speculation [1][15][16]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. The short - term acceleration of the slaughter rhythm may lead to price drops, but the speculation of secondary fattening provides some support. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the capacity reduction [1][18][19]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal closed at 3024 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2994.29 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The national average soybean crushing profit increased by 20.70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, an increase of 10.60 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 645.59 million tons, an increase of 3.35 million tons. The soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, an increase of 4.47 million tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it maintains a slightly bullish rebound trend, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2678 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2667.89 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit increased by 5.21 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions was 66.54 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is a large - range market under the entanglement of multi - empty factors. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed planting weather in Canada, the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations, and the follow - up progress of Sino - Australian relations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil closed at 8838 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, down 1.45%. The national daily trading volume was 1650 contracts, an increase of 1150 contracts [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 25, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, an increase of 2.41 million tons from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price may be suppressed due to possible inventory accumulation in July in Malaysia. Be cautious about chasing up, and pay attention to the buying situation of domestic palm oil in the past three months and beware of the risk of cornering the market [1][8][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13675 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15172 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main contract of ICE cotton closed at 66.62 cents/pound, up 0.39% [10][11]. - **Growth and Inventory**: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In China, the new cotton yield is expected to increase to over 740 million tons. The commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons [11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The US cotton may show a weak oscillation. In China, before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on previous short positions and consider cautiously going long at low prices [1][12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, closed at 10860 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The arrival volume at Guangdong Ruyifang was 5 trucks, an increase of 4 trucks [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: The new - season red dates are in the fruit - setting period. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, with a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to 2024. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: There are still large differences in the market regarding the reduction in production, and high inventory restricts the rebound height. This week, it is recommended to cautiously try to go long [1][15][16]. 3.6 Hogs - **Market Data**: The main contract of hogs, Lh2509, closed at 13940 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live hogs was 14340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprise's monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, an increase of 0.31%. The monthly pig slaughter volume was 1125.59 million tons, an increase of 1.51%. The monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4043 million tons, an increase of 0.02% [17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure, but there is support from secondary fattening. In the medium and long term, pay attention to capacity reduction. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in the near - month contracts and consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices [1][18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Palm Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Meal**: ☆☆☆ - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ - **Corn**: ★★★ - **Live Hogs**: ★☆☆ - **Eggs**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For most agricultural products, short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts. In the case of unclear tariff issues, the market for related products is mainly in a state of shock. For soybean - related products, there is a possibility of a good harvest in the United States this year. For some products like live hogs and eggs, there are corresponding trends in price changes and investment suggestions [2][3][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Currently, soybeans in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the pod - setting stage. Precipitation in the Northeast this week is beneficial to soybean growth. The price of the main contract of Beans 1 is weak, and the price difference with Beans 2 has narrowed. Imported soybeans are also weak in the short - term due to good weather [2] 3.2 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Trump's new tariff policy will take effect at zero o'clock on August 7th US time, but Sino - US tariffs have not been announced. The oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains above 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory has reached about 1 million tons. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans is weak, and there is a high probability of a good harvest this year. According to historical trends, there is a probability that Chinese soybean oil will strengthen in the medium - term. The short - term supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil is weak. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has strengthened, and soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. It is recommended to buy on dips for soybean oil and palm oil [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The inventory of rapeseed oil in China remains basically the same as last week, and the combined inventory of coastal oil mills and imported granular meal continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed futures price is expected to be in a shock state [5] 3.5 Corn - As of August 1st, CGS has conducted 10 auctions of imported corn, totaling about 2.4896 million tons, but the transaction rate and premium have been declining. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6] 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs continues to decline in a shock state. The futures price of near - month contracts is under pressure. The futures of live hogs may have reached the peak, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [7] 3.7 Eggs - The 09 - contract of eggs has fallen sharply. The inventory of laying hens in July continues to increase. If the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year. It is recommended to use the reverse arbitrage idea [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in export prices of various Chinese products to the U.S. in June, indicating that Chinese companies may be absorbing tariffs to maintain market share in the U.S. [1][3][4] Group 1: Export Price Decline - In June, out of 14 product categories surveyed, 9 categories saw a decline in export prices, including smartphones and game consoles, which dropped by 45% and 23% respectively [1][3] - The average export price of smartphones to the U.S. decreased by 40% year-on-year, while game consoles saw a 20% decline [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Import Dependence - The U.S. has a high dependence on Chinese imports for these categories, with over 80% of smartphones and game consoles imported from China [3] - The import share of Chinese products in the U.S. market for these categories is reported to be between 80% to 90% [3] Group 3: Tariff Impact and Market Strategy - Chinese manufacturers may be absorbing part of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. to maintain their market presence [3][4] - The U.S. currently imposes a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese products, despite some negotiations to suspend certain tariffs for 90 days [3][5] Group 4: Export Volume Changes - In June, the export volume of smartphones to the U.S. decreased by 71% year-on-year, while game consoles saw a reduction of 48% [4] - Some products, such as fireworks, experienced a significant increase in exports, rising by 51% in June, likely due to previously postponed shipments [4] Group 5: Future Negotiations - U.S. Treasury Secretary announced upcoming discussions on tariffs between the U.S. and China, indicating the potential for extending the suspension of certain tariffs [5] - If negotiations fail, the tariffs may remain in place long-term, which could lead to shortages and price increases in the U.S. market [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. In the short - term, under the dual influence of weak fundamentals and Sino - US trade tariff cost support, it will show a wide - range market. The main trading range is [3050, 3120] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress. The main trading range is [2670, 2800] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Although there are some bullish factors, considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze. The main trading range is [8850, 9150] [1]. - **Cotton**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand. The main trading range is [14100, 14350] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautious about shorting. The expected production reduction is gradually being disproven, and the high inventory makes it difficult for the price to rise. However, due to the relatively low price level, the downside space is limited [1]. - **Hogs**: Be cautiously bullish. The short - term price is supported by slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long - term. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Supply and Demand**: According to CPC's monthly outlook, the planting weather for US soybeans in July was generally smooth, and South America had a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' inventory is higher than last year, with reduced enthusiasm for further restocking [1]. - **Price Movement**: The news of Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion of US agricultural products boosted the price of US soybeans. China's soybean meal prices continued to rise. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [1][2]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. When approaching or above the previous high, continue to chase long positions with proper position and risk control management [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply and Demand**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in Canada is dry. In China, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills has decreased month - on - month, but is still high year - on - year. From July to September, rapeseed imports will decrease significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal supports the price [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2736 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The short - term trend is bullish [1][4]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress [1]. Palm Oil - **Supply and Demand**: The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61.19% month - on - month. However, the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month were bearish [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8926 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The domestic palm oil price continued to rise [1][8]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze [1]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas is still good, and the excellent - good rate is increasing. In China, the actual sown area of cotton has increased, and the inventory of domestic commercial cotton has decreased. However, the downstream textile enterprises' orders are weakening, and the finished product inventory is increasing [1][13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The ICE cotton price rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price fell 0.30% to 15549 yuan/ton [11][13]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand [1]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected production reduction is gradually being disproven. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. The demand is weak in the off - season [1][17]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10490 yuan/ton, up 0.77% [16][17]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. The upside pressure on the price is large, but the downside space is limited due to the relatively low price level [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. In the medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the industry still has over - capacity [1][19]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14380 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The domestic spot price remained stable at 14810 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautiously bullish. The 09 contract may face a slight correction risk, while the 01 contract is relatively strong. Consider going long at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1].

Group 1 - The overall export of China from April to June increased by 6.2% year-on-year, an expansion from 5.7% in the first quarter [1][2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 18%, to the EU by 9%, and to Japan by 7%, indicating a shift towards markets outside the US [1][2] - Exports to the US decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 24% in the same period, attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - Monthly data shows a decline in exports to the US, with April down 21%, May down 35%, and June down 16%, reflecting the impact of additional tariffs [1] - The cumulative additional tariffs imposed by the US on China reached 145% by April, with a subsequent agreement in May reducing tariffs by 115% [1] - China's strategy includes inducing a depreciation of the yuan to enhance export competitiveness, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index reaching a new low of 95.3 [2]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自chosun 。 受中东人工智能投资和全球关税担忧的推动，DRAM 价格飙升，HBM 需求旺盛，预计将提振三 星电子和 SK 海力士的盈利。主要客户正争相在美国可能加征关税之前囤积 DRAM，而美国芯片 制造商英伟达与沙特阿拉伯达成的大规模人工智能芯片交易，也为韩国领先的内存芯片制造商带来 了新的发展动力。 据业内人士5月19日透露，三星电子本月初将传统DDR4和新型DDR5 DRAM的价格均上调了两位 数百分比。SK海力士也将消费级DRAM价格上调了约12%。在美国芯片制造商美光公司上个月通 知客户计划涨价后，整体涨势获得了动力。 DRAM 的平均销售价格 (ASP) 在经历了五个月的低迷之后，于 4 月份开始攀升。据市场研究公司 DRAMeXchange 的数据，标准 PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) 的固定合同价格环比上涨 22.2%， 达到 1.65 美元。 分析师将近期价格飙升归因于主要客户在美国关税即将生效前囤货。美国企业正在谨慎采购以避免 关税影响，而中国的"以旧换新"补贴计划正在提振国内个人电脑和智能手机制造商的需求。长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, highlighting the resumption of exports and the impact of new tariff policies on various companies and industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Resumption and Tariff Impact - Many companies are preparing to restart shipments that were previously paused due to tariffs, although some need to confirm details with clients [2][8]. - The new tariff policies have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods decreasing from 125% to 10% [3]. - Companies like Honglida Holdings and Guangdong Micro Battery are actively negotiating with US clients regarding pricing adjustments to accommodate the new tariffs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Strategies - The logistics sector is experiencing increased demand for shipping as companies rush to clear inventory before the 90-day window for tariff adjustments ends [2][9]. - Companies are exploring alternative markets and production locations, with some considering establishing factories in Southeast Asia to mitigate reliance on the US market [11][12]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with companies preparing for potential long-term changes in trade dynamics and tariff structures [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the U.S. CPI growth in April was moderate and below expectations, with certain goods' prices reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by the White House. The overall year-on-year growth of 2.3% may represent the low point for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The static assessment suggests that if the tariffs remain unchanged following the U.S.-China joint statement on May 12, the cumulative effect of the tariffs could increase the U.S. PCE deflator index by approximately 0.85% [1] - The long-term impact of these tariffs is projected to drag down the U.S. GDP size by about 0.3% [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Trump administration would need to reduce the average price of prescription drugs by at least 30% to offset the inflationary effects of its tariff measures [1] - The visibility of U.S. tariff levels appears to be stabilizing, which is seen as a positive development for risk assets such as U.S. stocks [1] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar may receive support in the near term due to the recovering visibility of trade policies [1] - The company remains cautious regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1]