Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in export prices of various Chinese products to the U.S. in June, indicating that Chinese companies may be absorbing tariffs to maintain market share in the U.S. [1][3][4] Group 1: Export Price Decline - In June, out of 14 product categories surveyed, 9 categories saw a decline in export prices, including smartphones and game consoles, which dropped by 45% and 23% respectively [1][3] - The average export price of smartphones to the U.S. decreased by 40% year-on-year, while game consoles saw a 20% decline [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Import Dependence - The U.S. has a high dependence on Chinese imports for these categories, with over 80% of smartphones and game consoles imported from China [3] - The import share of Chinese products in the U.S. market for these categories is reported to be between 80% to 90% [3] Group 3: Tariff Impact and Market Strategy - Chinese manufacturers may be absorbing part of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. to maintain their market presence [3][4] - The U.S. currently imposes a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese products, despite some negotiations to suspend certain tariffs for 90 days [3][5] Group 4: Export Volume Changes - In June, the export volume of smartphones to the U.S. decreased by 71% year-on-year, while game consoles saw a reduction of 48% [4] - Some products, such as fireworks, experienced a significant increase in exports, rising by 51% in June, likely due to previously postponed shipments [4] Group 5: Future Negotiations - U.S. Treasury Secretary announced upcoming discussions on tariffs between the U.S. and China, indicating the potential for extending the suspension of certain tariffs [5] - If negotiations fail, the tariffs may remain in place long-term, which could lead to shortages and price increases in the U.S. market [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. In the short - term, under the dual influence of weak fundamentals and Sino - US trade tariff cost support, it will show a wide - range market. The main trading range is [3050, 3120] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress. The main trading range is [2670, 2800] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Although there are some bullish factors, considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze. The main trading range is [8850, 9150] [1]. - **Cotton**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand. The main trading range is [14100, 14350] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautious about shorting. The expected production reduction is gradually being disproven, and the high inventory makes it difficult for the price to rise. However, due to the relatively low price level, the downside space is limited [1]. - **Hogs**: Be cautiously bullish. The short - term price is supported by slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long - term. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Supply and Demand**: According to CPC's monthly outlook, the planting weather for US soybeans in July was generally smooth, and South America had a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' inventory is higher than last year, with reduced enthusiasm for further restocking [1]. - **Price Movement**: The news of Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion of US agricultural products boosted the price of US soybeans. China's soybean meal prices continued to rise. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [1][2]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. When approaching or above the previous high, continue to chase long positions with proper position and risk control management [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply and Demand**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in Canada is dry. In China, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills has decreased month - on - month, but is still high year - on - year. From July to September, rapeseed imports will decrease significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal supports the price [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2736 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The short - term trend is bullish [1][4]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress [1]. Palm Oil - **Supply and Demand**: The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61.19% month - on - month. However, the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month were bearish [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8926 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The domestic palm oil price continued to rise [1][8]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze [1]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas is still good, and the excellent - good rate is increasing. In China, the actual sown area of cotton has increased, and the inventory of domestic commercial cotton has decreased. However, the downstream textile enterprises' orders are weakening, and the finished product inventory is increasing [1][13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The ICE cotton price rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price fell 0.30% to 15549 yuan/ton [11][13]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand [1]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected production reduction is gradually being disproven. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. The demand is weak in the off - season [1][17]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10490 yuan/ton, up 0.77% [16][17]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. The upside pressure on the price is large, but the downside space is limited due to the relatively low price level [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. In the medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the industry still has over - capacity [1][19]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14380 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The domestic spot price remained stable at 14810 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautiously bullish. The 09 contract may face a slight correction risk, while the 01 contract is relatively strong. Consider going long at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1].

Group 1 - The overall export of China from April to June increased by 6.2% year-on-year, an expansion from 5.7% in the first quarter [1][2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 18%, to the EU by 9%, and to Japan by 7%, indicating a shift towards markets outside the US [1][2] - Exports to the US decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 24% in the same period, attributed to increased tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - Monthly data shows a decline in exports to the US, with April down 21%, May down 35%, and June down 16%, reflecting the impact of additional tariffs [1] - The cumulative additional tariffs imposed by the US on China reached 145% by April, with a subsequent agreement in May reducing tariffs by 115% [1] - China's strategy includes inducing a depreciation of the yuan to enhance export competitiveness, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index reaching a new low of 95.3 [2]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自chosun 。 受中东人工智能投资和全球关税担忧的推动，DRAM 价格飙升，HBM 需求旺盛，预计将提振三 星电子和 SK 海力士的盈利。主要客户正争相在美国可能加征关税之前囤积 DRAM，而美国芯片 制造商英伟达与沙特阿拉伯达成的大规模人工智能芯片交易，也为韩国领先的内存芯片制造商带来 了新的发展动力。 据业内人士5月19日透露，三星电子本月初将传统DDR4和新型DDR5 DRAM的价格均上调了两位 数百分比。SK海力士也将消费级DRAM价格上调了约12%。在美国芯片制造商美光公司上个月通 知客户计划涨价后，整体涨势获得了动力。 DRAM 的平均销售价格 (ASP) 在经历了五个月的低迷之后，于 4 月份开始攀升。据市场研究公司 DRAMeXchange 的数据，标准 PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) 的固定合同价格环比上涨 22.2%， 达到 1.65 美元。 分析师将近期价格飙升归因于主要客户在美国关税即将生效前囤货。美国企业正在谨慎采购以避免 关税影响，而中国的"以旧换新"补贴计划正在提振国内个人电脑和智能手机制造商的需求。长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, highlighting the resumption of exports and the impact of new tariff policies on various companies and industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Resumption and Tariff Impact - Many companies are preparing to restart shipments that were previously paused due to tariffs, although some need to confirm details with clients [2][8]. - The new tariff policies have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods decreasing from 125% to 10% [3]. - Companies like Honglida Holdings and Guangdong Micro Battery are actively negotiating with US clients regarding pricing adjustments to accommodate the new tariffs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Strategies - The logistics sector is experiencing increased demand for shipping as companies rush to clear inventory before the 90-day window for tariff adjustments ends [2][9]. - Companies are exploring alternative markets and production locations, with some considering establishing factories in Southeast Asia to mitigate reliance on the US market [11][12]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with companies preparing for potential long-term changes in trade dynamics and tariff structures [6][13].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the U.S. CPI growth in April was moderate and below expectations, with certain goods' prices reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by the White House. The overall year-on-year growth of 2.3% may represent the low point for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The static assessment suggests that if the tariffs remain unchanged following the U.S.-China joint statement on May 12, the cumulative effect of the tariffs could increase the U.S. PCE deflator index by approximately 0.85% [1] - The long-term impact of these tariffs is projected to drag down the U.S. GDP size by about 0.3% [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Trump administration would need to reduce the average price of prescription drugs by at least 30% to offset the inflationary effects of its tariff measures [1] - The visibility of U.S. tariff levels appears to be stabilizing, which is seen as a positive development for risk assets such as U.S. stocks [1] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar may receive support in the near term due to the recovering visibility of trade policies [1] - The company remains cautious regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1]

Group 1 - The Geneva trade talks between China and the US have led to a significant reduction in punitive tariffs, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs by over 100% [2] - The upcoming US April CPI data release is expected to influence market dynamics, particularly in the context of easing inflation expectations [2][9] Group 2 - Agricultural products such as soybeans and corn are expected to see increased exports to China due to reduced tariffs, which previously imposed a 125% tariff on US soybeans, negatively impacting domestic crushing margins [3] - Livestock products may face short-term pressure due to increased domestic feed supply, affecting futures for live pigs and eggs [4] - Cotton prices may find strong support in the short term due to improved export expectations and a decrease in inventory [5] Group 3 - In the energy sector, the easing of tariff concerns is anticipated to lead to a recovery in demand for crude oil and natural gas, positively impacting domestic energy products [6] - Lithium carbonate may experience reduced negative sentiment as US tariffs on electric vehicle imports are expected to decrease, potentially benefiting North American lithium battery material manufacturers [6] - Industrial silicon prices may improve as expectations of tariffs on the photovoltaic industry ease, leading to a potential demand recovery [6] Group 4 - The chemical sector is likely to see a chain reaction from eased export restrictions, with polyester and related products such as PTA and short fibers expected to rebound due to improved inventory balance [7] Group 5 - Gold prices may decline further as trade negotiations between China and the US and global geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, with a high level of speculative long positions in gold potentially leading to technical sell-offs [8]

Group 1 - The recent consensus on trade tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to significantly lower tariffs within the next 90 days, leading to a recovery in China's appliance exports to the U.S. [2][3] - The current tariff on most home appliance products exported from China to the U.S. is 55%, which includes a combination of previous tariffs and new ones. This is a substantial decrease compared to the previous month [2][3]. - Companies are advised to maximize their exports during this 90-day window while preparing for potential future uncertainties in trade relations [2][4]. Group 2 - U.S. customers are beginning to respond positively to the tariff changes, with companies like Xinbao and Zhongshan Letu Electric preparing to resume shipments to the U.S. market [3]. - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a short-term benefit for trade between China and the U.S., allowing companies to communicate and expedite shipments to American clients [3][4]. - Despite the positive outlook, companies are encouraged to remain flexible and prepare for potential fluctuations in the trade environment after the 90-day period [4].

特朗普表示将大幅提高对中国的关税（REUTERS） 美国总统特朗普7日表示，若中国不撤回针对美国对等关税的报复措施，美国将大幅提高对中国 的追加关税。在已宣布的追加关税基础上再加征50%。若在34%的对等关税基础上再加50%，总税 率将达到104%…… 美国总统特朗普7日表示，若中国不撤回针对美国对等关税的报复措施，美国将大幅提高对中 国的追加关税。在已宣布的追加关税基础上再加征50%。若该措施实际生效，美国对来自中国 的所有进口商品征收的关税总额将超过100%。 特朗普7日在其社交媒体指责中国称："尽管我已警告过，报复美国的国家将面临比最初高得 多的关税，但仍宣布了报复性关税"。特朗普警告称，若中国不在8日之前撤回报复措施，将 加征"50%的追加关税"。 特朗普政府于2日宣布对中国实施34%的对等关税。作为回应，中国方面于4日也表示，将对从 美国进口的商品征收同样为34%的追加关税。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 美国的对等关税已于5日实施，统一对所有国家征收10%的基本税率。额外的加征税率将于美 国东部时间9日0时1分（中国时间当日12时1分）起生效。中国政府计 ...