Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with the index rising over 70% year-to-date, but there is increasing internal differentiation among sub-sectors, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, which are experiencing high-level fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, the non-ferrous metals (CITIC) index has gained over 70% this year, attracting market attention [1] - The performance of precious metals has been under pressure due to geopolitical changes and profit-taking, while industrial and rare metals show relative resilience [1] - The market trend can be divided into three phases: initial strength in precious metals due to risk aversion from tariffs, followed by valuation recovery in industrial and rare metals, and finally a divergence in driving logic among the sub-sectors [1] Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - Precious metals (gold, silver) are linked to global political and economic situations and tend to strengthen during periods of uncertainty [1] - Industrial metals (copper, lead, zinc, aluminum) are driven by cyclical factors and primarily influenced by unexpected changes in supply and demand [1] - Rare metals (such as rare earths) are critical for high-end manufacturing, facing short-term supply-demand mismatches but benefiting from technological advancements in the long term [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The analysis indicates that gold's recent fluctuations are due to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, but it still holds asset allocation value in the medium to long term [2] - Silver has faced a pullback after a previous surge, with its future performance remaining uncertain and closely tied to geopolitical and Federal Reserve developments [2] - Copper is currently in a "double weakness" situation regarding supply and demand, with production disruptions and global economic slowdown affecting its outlook [2] - Rare earths are expected to perform strongly, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade policies and export control expectations [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector may still present structural investment opportunities, but differentiation among varieties will continue [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals to identify investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship purchases is expected to affect the progress of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the unilateral market. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian on October 21 was 111, up 6; in Tianjin it was 91; in Rizhao it was 81. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 11, in Dongguan was 11, in Zhanjiang was 61, up 6, and in Fangcheng was 61, up 6. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 85, down 4, and MJ - 5 was 146, down 13 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 419, up 2; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal on the main contract was 568, up 23 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 14, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio, but the downstream trading volume of soybean meal is light, and the pick - up is good [9]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation remains weak, and the overall loose capital situation may drive the bond market to fluctuate strongly. However, uncertainties such as Sino-US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees will continue to affect market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The strategy suggests a band - trading approach [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 392, 9672, and 4833 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 11147 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - Most futures spreads showed an upward trend, such as TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.01, T2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.02, TF2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03, etc. Some spreads decreased, like T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.26 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased to varying degrees [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - Some bonds' clean prices increased, such as 250018.IB increased by 0.0290, 250003.IB increased by 0.0473, etc. Some remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities all increased. For example, the 1 - year yield increased by 7.50bp, the 3 - year yield increased by 1.50bp, etc. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Most short - term interest rates increased. For example, the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.82bp, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.33bp, etc. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 1595 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 910 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.9 Industry News - In October, the LPR quotation remained stable. The central government arranged 5000 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to be issued to local areas, and will advance the issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, social consumption growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd. The US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released at 20:30 on October 24th [3]

Group 1: Report Core View - Due to the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply, the market has a pessimistic outlook. However, the current poor domestic soybean purchase profit is expected to affect the pace of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino-US policies and South American weather in the later stage [8] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Basis Data - On October 20th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 105, down 27; in Tianjin, it was 85, down 27; in Rizhao, it was 75, down 7. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 5, down 47 [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 89, down 31 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts was 545, down 17 [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [8] Supply and Demand Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has a certain downward adjustment space. The planting of Brazilian soybeans has begun, and as of October 14th, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. China cannot purchase US soybeans, and the source of soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high substitution ratio. The downstream trading of soybean meal is apparently light, but the提货 is good [8]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, 2025, the LPR quotes remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The Ministry of Finance announced two measures to support economic growth, including allocating 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits and pre - issuing the 2026 local government debt quota. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with September's economic data showing mixed results. The yield of treasury bond spot bonds mostly weakened, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The domestic economy's third - quarter growth was stable but slightly declined compared to the previous value. Overseas, the market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the Sino - US trade policy shows signs of easing. Fiscal policies are expected to drive effective investment and credit, and monetary policies may become more accommodative. The bond market is gradually stabilizing, and it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy while paying attention to policy trends [2]. Summary by Categories Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.04%, and 0.37% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased, while TL's decreased. T, TF, and TL main contract positions decreased, and TS's increased [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads between different contracts decreased, while the spreads between different - term contracts such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net short positions of T, TF, and TS top 20 decreased, while that of TL increased [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of treasury active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield at 1.3950% (down 0.25bp), 3 - year at 1.5100% (down 0.60bp), 5 - year at 1.5800% (down 0.75bp), 7 - year at 1.6825% (down 0.85bp), and 10 - year at 1.7450% (down 0.80bp) [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while the 14 - day rate increased. The Shibor overnight rate decreased, the 7 - day rate increased, and the 14 - day rate increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 189 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 253.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The 2025 Q3 GDP was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a 5.2% year - on - year increase at constant prices. September's social consumer goods retail was 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. The national fixed - asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held from October 21st to 22nd [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillating" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship - buying is expected to affect the ship - buying progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on single - side trading. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather in the later stage [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has room for downward adjustment. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 11.1% as of October 14, higher than last year but lower than the five - year average. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline in October, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and a high proportion in feed, but its downstream trading is light, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, and that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises also decreased. Domestic rapeseed inventories have dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories are being depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - It is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - It is bullish. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation, while from the perspective of basis, it is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - It is neutral. Recently, Sino - US trade sentiment has been volatile, and market sensitivity has decreased. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US meeting at the APEC Summit on October 30 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increased, while that of global soybeans decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [34][40]. 3.2.2 Planting and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - rate data of US soybeans are presented, and the domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is declining [49][54]. 3.2.3 Trade and Import - This week, the US soybean export sales data was not released. Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profits are provided. The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are also presented [66][73][76]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Processing - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, soybean meal inventories in oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major domestic regions is also presented. Data on the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [82][89][96]. 3.2.5 Trading and Consumption - The trading of soybean meal is light, but the pick - up is at a high level. Data on the trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The monthly output data of feed are also provided [105][106][112]. 3.2.6 Breeding Industry - Data on the breeding profits, prices, weights, and slaughter volumes of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented [120][129][133].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations, but the current domestic crushing profit is poor, which is expected to affect the pace of vessel purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Basis - On October 17th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 132, up 19; in Tianjin it was 112, up 19; in Rizhao it was 82; in Zhangjiagang it was 52, up 39; in Dongguan it was 32; in Zhanjiang it was 82, up 29; in Fangcheng it was 72, up 29. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, and MJ - 5 was 155, down 10 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 562, up 19. The RM1 - 5 spread was 30, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 410 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0897, down 38.00. The futures crushing profit was 297 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has begun, and as of October 14th, the planting rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8][9] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are apparently light, but the pick - up is good [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the futures prices dropped from high levels this week, with the 01 contract closing at 9,861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the expected high - yield exerts pressure on its price. Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year benefits the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has been rising for seven consecutive months. In China, the preliminary ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit rapeseed oil demand to mainly rigid needs. The market should continue to monitor China - Canada trade policies [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the futures prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promotes soybean harvesting, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restrains its price. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the lack of data due to the US government shutdown makes the market cautious. In China, the China - Canada trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed will be restricted in the fourth quarter, with relatively low supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market should continue to pay attention to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Rapeseed Oil Strategy**: Monitor the support level of the 60 - day moving average and mainly participate in the long - term in a bullish manner [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Strategy**: Participate mainly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, rapeseed oil futures dropped from high levels, with a total open interest of 281,371 lots, a decrease of 32,617 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total open interest of 367,868 lots, a decrease of 3,840 lots from last week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +15,954 to +11,597, while the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures increased from - 63,260 to - 93,955 [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 7,590 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 7,702 lots [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,160 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price is +299 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,410 yuan/ton, lower than last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price is +104 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +386 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +30 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period in previous years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 4.276, and the average spot price ratio is 4.05 [53]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,605 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 553 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 470 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed Supply**: As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 505,000 tons respectively. As of October 16, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +1,291 yuan/ton. As of the 41st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 600 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 1.47%. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 629,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (0.41%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 51,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (2.87%) from last week [90][94][98]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 10,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (41.67%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.9272 million tons [102][106][110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, this week, rapeseed meal continued to decline, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.69%, a 0.69% increase from 20% last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113]. 3.5 Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Daodaoquan, but no specific data analysis is provided [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher; domestic copper trended stronger with oscillations, and the spot import window remained closed. There are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut pace. With the US government shutdown continuing and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, the copper market is cautious. Before substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the market may not offer a higher premium. However, the continuous rise in gold and silver prices and the return of the gold - silver ratio make copper prices eager to rise. Currently, copper prices may remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended stronger with oscillations. Alumina prices in the spot market declined, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. High - cost production capacity turned to losses and stopped production. After the rainy season ended, mine shipments resumed, and there is room for a decline in ore prices. Alumina is generally bearish but is starting to bottom out. The market re - evaluates the demand fulfillment in the second half of "Silver October", and aluminum prices maintain a relatively strong pattern. Whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53%, while SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain shows stable nickel - iron prices, and stainless - steel prices are supported by nickel - iron. The social inventory of stainless steel increased significantly after the holiday. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply is tight, supporting prices. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, and nickel prices fluctuate widely, with caution needed regarding macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzes the macro - situation including differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut stance, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade uncertainties. Also considers demand factors and the impact of the Indonesian mine accident on copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Covers the price trends of alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy in the futures market, as well as price changes in the spot market such as alumina, aluminum ingots, and aluminum rods. Discusses factors like alumina plant profits, ore shipments, and inventory changes affecting aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Mentions the price changes of LME and SHFE nickel, inventory changes, the situation of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, and the new - energy industry chain, and points out that nickel prices fluctuate widely and are affected by macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Compares prices such as flat - copper, scrap copper, and downstream products between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Compares prices of lead products such as 1 lead and recycled lead, lead - concentrate prices, and processing fees between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Compares prices of aluminum products such as无锡报价,南海报价, and aluminum alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Compares prices of nickel products such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and nickel ore between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like CIF提单 and active - contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: Compares prices of zinc products such as主力结算价, SMM 0 and 1 spot, and zinc alloy between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. - **Tin**: Compares prices of tin products such as主力结算价, SMM现货, and tin concentrate between October 16 and 15, 2025. Also shows inventory changes in LME and SHFE and changes in other indicators like LME0 - 3 premium and active - contract import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Provides charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Provides charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Provides charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Provides charts of smelting - related indicators such as copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **展大鹏**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the dynamics of the new - energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [51].