Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled continued easing into 2025, but the dovish tone of Powell was less than expected, leading to a nearly 1% drop in gold prices [1] Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, but Powell remains cautious about the pace of cuts. The FOMC voting results show that most members supported a 25 basis point cut, with only one member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - The Fed acknowledged that recent inflation data has risen but remains at a "high level," while also recognizing signs of economic growth slowing in the first half of 2025 [3] Labor Market and Inflation Dynamics - Powell emphasized signs of weakness in labor demand and that inflation remains elevated. He noted a shift in the balance of policy risks and stated that the current policy framework can flexibly respond to economic changes [4] - He clarified that there was no broad support for a 50 basis point cut at this meeting and reiterated that the decision-making body is not in a hurry to accelerate easing [4] Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance - Gold prices fell sharply after reaching a historical high of $3,707.35, stabilizing around $3,660. The 14-day RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting limited short-term upside, but the overall trend remains bullish [5] - The upward targets are set at $3,750 and $3,800, with primary support at $3,650. A break below this level could test the September 11 low of $3,613, slightly above the psychological level of $3,600 [5] Market Perspective - The current market is characterized by a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" cycle typical of Federal Reserve dynamics. Despite short-term pressure on gold prices from a rebounding dollar, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's focus on employment, a downward trend in real interest rates, geopolitical risks, and global central bank gold purchases [7] - The company maintains a bullish stance, advising investors to monitor the effectiveness of the $3,650 support level. If it holds, investors may consider accumulating long positions with targets above $3,750; if it breaks, caution is warranted regarding a potential pullback to $3,600 [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "dot plot" indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, lowering the policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, which is more dovish than previous expectations, suggesting a relief from stagflation risks [1] - The latest economic forecast shows a year-end inflation rate median of 3%, above the 2% target but unchanged from the previous quarter; the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.5%, and economic growth is slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% [1] - The Federal Reserve is shifting its view on the temporary impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, prioritizing the prevention of economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which provides a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the Shanghai gold price fell by 1.78%, closing at 824.1 yuan per gram [3] - According to GF Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's rate decision as neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline; since September, precious metal prices have rapidly surged and reached new highs, indicating overbought conditions [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve's policy path exhibits dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations and compromised independence," which continues to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, but the latest dot plot and Powell's statements have dampened expectations for rapid and significant rate cuts [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - This marks the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, following a pause in policy adjustments since December of the previous year [3] - The dot plot indicates a mixed outlook among officials, with one member advocating for no cuts this year, while others suggest varying degrees of cuts, with a consensus hinting at three total cuts of 25 basis points each [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, gold prices initially surged to $3707 per ounce, reaching a historical high, before experiencing a decline of nearly $50, settling at $3645.18 per ounce [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision reflects uncertainty, with analysts noting that Powell's characterization of the cut as a "risk management" move led to profit-taking [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting, up from 74.3% the previous day [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices may experience further corrections, potentially dropping to around $3600 per ounce in the short term [4] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is seen as a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties may attract new buyers [5] - Notably, gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two years, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40%, indicating strong demand driven by central bank purchases and diversification away from the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a peak at 3703 before a drop to around 3674, indicating a volatile market environment and potential trading strategies [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold reached a historical high of 3703 before declining by 30 points to 3674, suggesting a volatile trading environment [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase where short sellers may find opportunities, particularly for those betting against prices above 3676 [3]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 18 is anticipated to influence market sentiment, especially regarding interest rate decisions [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - Current predictions for interest rates indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, aligning with market expectations [4]. - The likelihood of various interest rate scenarios is outlined, with a 96.1% chance of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% on September 18 [4]. - Future interest rate paths will be crucial for gold prices, with a neutral to hawkish stance potentially being bearish for gold, while a dovish outlook could support price increases [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The article suggests that a price adjustment of 50-70 points could present buying opportunities for traders, particularly as the market approaches the fiscal year-end [5]. - Short-term indicators show a bearish trend for both gold and silver, with significant downward pressure observed [5][6]. - The current support level for gold is at the Bollinger middle band of 3665; failure to hold this level could lead to further declines [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut has a 3.9% chance [1] - Analysts predict mixed opinions during the meeting, with some supporting a 50 basis point cut and others advocating for a 25 basis point cut or opposing any cuts [1] - The current financial environment in the U.S. remains relatively loose, which does not support the idea of continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically experiences significant gains in the 12 months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [2] - The current market has fully priced in expectations for a 25 basis point cut, and a mere 25 basis point reduction may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction [2] - A 50 basis point cut may be necessary to maintain the downward trend of the dollar and support the rise of U.S. assets [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market's interest rates follow the U.S. due to the linked exchange rate system, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve will lower funding costs in Hong Kong [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains during the last rate cut cycle, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 78.71% in 2020 [3] - The rate cut opens up further space for potential reductions in China, benefiting both the stock and real estate markets [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to create a more favorable liquidity environment for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, signaling positive market conditions [3] - Historically, U.S. Treasury bonds perform well during rate cut expectations, with long-term bonds particularly benefiting from increased relative value [3] Group 5 - Gold is expected to benefit from the rate cut as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making it more attractive [4]

Core Viewpoint - TA Securities suggests that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, the market may react with a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" approach, as most investors have already priced in this rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - A 25 basis point cut will be perceived as a cautious and supportive "insurance-style" rate cut aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling distress [1] - The environment created by this rate cut is favorable for sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and technology, which benefit from lower borrowing costs and exhibit defensive or long-term growth characteristics [1] Group 2: Sector Impacts - Financial stocks are likely to suffer due to reduced profit margins from narrowing interest spreads, often underperforming the broader market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4.00%-4.25%, the market is expected to react with a "buy the rumor, sell the news" response, as most investors have already priced in this expectation [1] - A 25 basis point cut will be interpreted as a cautious, supportive "insurance" cut aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling distress [1] - This environment is typically favorable for consumer staples, healthcare, and technology stocks, which benefit from lower borrowing costs and possess defensive or long-term growth characteristics [1] Group 2 - Financial stocks are likely to underperform the market due to reduced profitability from narrowing interest margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is hovering near a 41-month low, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting a dovish sentiment [1] - If the Fed only implements the expected 25 basis point cut, a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction may occur, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking in the US stock market [1] Group 2: Rate Cut Speculations - To sustain the dollar's decline and the rise of US assets, a 50 basis point cut and acknowledgment of aggressive easing by Fed Chair Powell may be necessary [1] - Although the market perceives only a 3% probability for a 50 basis point cut, the possibility cannot be ruled out, especially if US employment data is significantly revised downward [1]

今日操作建议与关键点位 在当前高位震荡格局下，操作上需要更加谨慎。日内关键阻力位在3702-3705美元区域，如果突破则可能进一步上攻3715-3725美元阻力区。下方支撑首先关 注3680美元，其次是3670-3674美元区域。操作上建议采用回落做多为主思路，可在3680-3690美元区域轻仓做多，止损设在3670下方，目标看向3700-3710美 元。对于激进型交易者，如果金价反弹至3705-3715美元区域且出现受阻信号，可以轻仓尝试短空，止损设在3720上方，目标回看3680-3690美元。需要注意 的是，在美联储决议前，市场波动可能加剧，务必控制仓位大小，严格设置止损，避免意外波动造成重大损失。 明日走势预测与后市展望 明日黄金走势几乎完全取决于美联储利率决议的结果。如果美联储如预期降息25个基点并释放鸽派信号，金价很可能突破3725美元阻力，向3740-3750美元 区域发起冲击。如果意外降息50个基点，金价可能出现爆炸性上涨，直接挑战3750-3800美元区域。然而需要警惕"买预期卖事实"的风险，如果降息落地但 政策指引不及市场预期的鸽派，或者点阵图显示未来降息路径更为平缓，金价可能出现短线获利 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with prices reaching a historical high of 3674 [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to impact the gold market significantly, as the recent price surge may have already factored in this news [1][2] - The phenomenon of "buying the rumor, selling the news" is prevalent in financial markets, suggesting that if the Fed's announcement aligns with expectations, a wave of profit-taking could lead to a price correction in gold [2] Group 2 - Investors are advised to remain vigilant and manage risks effectively in light of the upcoming market changes, particularly those holding long positions in gold [3] - It is recommended for investors to set reasonable profit-taking points and stop-loss levels to secure gains and minimize potential losses amid market volatility [3] - New investors are cautioned against impulsively entering the market during heightened volatility and are encouraged to wait for clearer price trends before making decisions [3]