（截至12月23日19:26分，伦铜的价格走势） （文华综合） 受美元走软及供应紧张相关担忧支撑，伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜再创历史新高，三个月期铜合约升穿12,000美元/吨，稍早高见12,038.50美元/吨。 ...

SHMET 网讯：12月18日（周四），行业专家表示，全球供应紧张推动了锡价上涨，加深了市场对这种 相对不为人知的关键材料的兴趣。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锡周四上涨652美元，或1.54%，收报每吨42,927美元，该合约盘中触 及43,345美元，为2022年4月以来最高水平。期锡自2025年初以来累计上涨了47.60%。 LME现货锡价格在本月多数时间都徘徊在每吨40,000美元上方，为2022年初锡价达到该水平以来首见。 12月15日，Platts评估的纽约A级锡现货价格也创下了三年新高，达到19.21美元/磅，自年初以来上涨了 44.1%。S&P Global Energy的Platts价格评估每两周发布一次。 业内专家表示，引发价格飙升的原因是2025年持续存在的供应方面的问题，例如采矿中断，以及市场对 锡价值的认识日益增强。 锡是电动汽车锂离子电池的阳极材料，也是焊接电子设备和太阳能电池板组件的关键材料。锡已被列入 美国、加拿大和英国的关键矿产清单，而澳大利亚则将其归类为战略材料。 尽管用途广泛，但锡在很大程度上被锂和铜等其他能源转型金属所掩盖。 Prabowo在10月份的福布斯会议上称 ...

由于担心矿山开采中断导致短缺，以及流向美国的金属使世界其他地区的供应趋紧，LME期铜今年已 大涨32%。 Commodity Market Analytics经理Dan Smith称："我仍然认为目前风险偏向上行。我有预感年底前铜价将 攀升至每吨12,000美元。" 市场还在等待美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)的消息。市场普遍预期该央行将在周三降低利率，但也 可能削弱进一步降息的预期。 有分析师称，对未来降息的谨慎态度已导致投资者缩减头寸，而美国以外地区预期的供应紧张将使价格 居高不下且波动剧烈。 （文华综合） 12月10日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价反弹，向纪录水平回升，受需求增加的希望支撑。 伦敦时间12月10日17:00(北京时间12月11日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨69.5美元，或0.61%，收报每吨 11,556.5美元。周二铜价下跌1.3%，一天前曾触及11,771美元的纪录高位。 | | 12月10日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 11.556.50 ↑ | ...

在美联储宣布降息并维持明年再次降息的预期后，铜价逼近历史高位，其他金属价格也随之上涨。伦敦金属期货一度上涨1.5%，随后回吐超过一 半的涨幅。美联储此前连续第三次降息，但措辞略有变化，暗示未来降息的不确定性更大。 与此同时，中国高层周一表示，这一全球第二大经济体将继续保持"适度宽松"的货币政策，并采取更加积极的财政举措。中国贸易数据也为铜价 提供了支撑。数据显示，上月出口反弹并超出预期，推动中国年度贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元。 近几个月来，受宽松货币政策与供应紧张的推动，该工业金属价格持续走高。铜价今年迄今已上涨超过30%，此外，一系列矿山停产事件以及美 国以外地区铜矿供应短缺的担忧也提振了铜价，因为交易商在明年可能加征关税前纷纷涌入美国市场抢购铜矿。而且从长远来看，可再生能源行 业需求的增长将支撑铜价。 花旗与摩根大通也加入看涨阵营。花旗分析师在一份报告中指出，按照其基本假设情景，铜库存正在美国积累，非美地区则形成短缺，铜价在第 二季度均价将达到13,000美元。此外，摩根大通预计，到2026年第二季度，铜价可能达到每吨12,500美元，全年平均约为12,075美元。 不过，高盛等则更为谨慎，认为近期铜价突 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged, breaking the $60 per ounce mark and reaching $61.62, with a monthly increase of nearly 9% and an annual increase of over 112% [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Spot silver prices rose significantly, with a peak increase of over 1.3% during the European session on December 10 [1]. - The price has shown a consistent upward trend, potentially marking the eighth consecutive month of gains [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to supply tightness and speculative investments, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Market expectations indicate an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong retail and speculative investor base in silver, which tends to attract more funds when upward momentum is established [3]. - Despite a significant 20% increase over the past three weeks, market sentiment remains strong, with discussions of silver potentially reaching $100 [3]. Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Silver inventory has been steadily decreasing, with mining output failing to meet demand from investors and industrial applications, leading to ongoing supply shortages [4]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has added silver to its list of critical minerals, which may face tariffs or trade restrictions, further tightening supply [4]. - Concerns over tariffs have led traders to move silver to the U.S., exacerbating supply issues in other regions [4].

贵金属市场本周表现抢眼，白银期货以超过6%的涨幅成为市场焦点。白银的强势表现主要受到两方面 因素推动：一是市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期升温，特别是对新任主席可能延续宽松政策的猜测； 二是全球主要铜生产商联合声明引发了市场对铜矿产能调整的担忧，白银作为副产品供给可能相应收 缩。但投资者需保持警惕，一旦地缘政治风险缓和或者利多因素出尽，银价可能出现技术性回调。 需求提振 棕榈油持续上涨 本周国内商品期货市场呈现明显分化格局，有色金属和贵金属表现抢眼，而能源化工板块延续弱势。具 体来看，沪铜以超过2%的涨幅领跑有色金属板块，沪锌跟涨1.4%；贵金属方面，白银期货表现尤为亮 眼，涨幅超过6%；农产品板块中，棕榈油涨幅超过1%，豆粕则几乎持平；工业品方面，合成橡胶和黑 色系品种表现不俗，其中焦炭大涨超3%，铁矿石也录得1%以上的涨幅。 供应紧张 推高铜价创历史新高 本周有色金属板块整体表现强劲，其中沪铜期货价格突破关键阻力位，创下历史新高。伦敦金属交易所 铜价和上海期货交易所沪铜价格同步上涨，这一现象主要受到供应紧张和需求增长的双重推动。供给 端，智利等主要产铜国产量不及预期，铜精矿短缺导致加工费维持低位；需求端，新 ...

Group 1: Market Data - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 264,157 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 103,486 lots. The open interest of Shanghai tin contract 2601 is 53,055 lots [5][6] Group 2: Spot Market - The closing price of today's Shanghai tin 2601 contract is 312,370 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Yangtze River spot 1 tin ingots is 309,500 yuan/ton, and the basis is -2,870 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On the supply side, the global tin ore supply constraint continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo intensify transportation risks. The resumption of production in Myanmar is slower than expected, leading to a year-on-year sharp decline of 61.61% in imports. Indonesia's export policy shrinks the global supply. Although domestic smelters operate stably, the low processing fees for tin ore and raw material shortages restrict production capacity release, driving up the price support sentiment in the spot market [8] - On the demand side, the demand in traditional fields such as consumer electronics is weak. The operating rate of solder enterprises has declined, and they are cautious about taking delivery, which restricts the increase in spot prices. The demand in emerging fields such as AI servers and new energy vehicles is growing, supporting long-term expectations [8] - In terms of inventory, although the domestic visible inventory has slightly rebounded, it remains at a historically low level overall. Overseas inventory continues to be tight [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, supported by both tight supply and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai tin will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11]

铜：宏观与基本面共振，铜价强势上涨 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 近期国内现货铜价偏强上涨，主因：一、美国11月ADP就业人数下滑，就业数据疲软推动降息预期升 温。二、CSPT成员将于明年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，加之智利国家铜业明年意向溢价超300美元/ 吨，市场对未来国内供应紧张的担忧加剧；加工企业订单缩减较为明显，仅部分大厂按需采购。短期供 应紧张与降息预期支撑铜价，议息会议结束后宏观支撑力度将有减弱，故现货铜价或先涨而后窄幅回 落。 ...

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 世界黄金协会：2026年金价或再涨30% 世界黄金协会(WGC)周四发布的报告预计，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨15%至30%。WGC指出，美债收 益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加，将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风。 摩科瑞被曝提取大量铜 据市场最新消息显示，大宗商品贸易巨头摩科瑞（Mercuria）已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所 （LME）的亚洲仓库提取大量铜。 LME当天的数据也显示，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨（按吨数计，这是2013年以来的最 大增幅），达到56875吨，占LME总库存的35%。 分析认为，离开LME体系的大部分铜被运往了美国。先前，特朗普政府给予了精炼铜关税豁免。但之 后，美国通过《国防生产法案》将铜列为关键矿产，试图保障自身铜资源供应。 上周，摩科瑞高管Kostas Bintas再度发表看多铜价的预测。他还提到，近期向美国运送金属的热潮可能 会抽干世界其他地区的库存，进而导致全球铜价不停攀升。 与此同时，印尼和智利一系列矿山中断加剧了供应趋紧，在LME认证仓库中的铜库存正处于历史低 位，助推了近月来的价格上涨。 铜价周四从创纪 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The World Gold Council (WGC) predicts that gold prices may rise by 15% to 30% by 2026 due to declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Copper Market - Mercuria plans to withdraw a significant amount of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, with a record increase in copper withdrawal applications of 50,575 tons, reaching a total of 56,875 tons, which constitutes 35% of LME's total inventory [3] - The supply tightness in the copper market is exacerbated by mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, leading to historically low copper inventories in LME-certified warehouses [4] - Recent data indicates a slight retreat in copper prices after a record high, as the panic over supply tightness begins to ease [6] - The U.S. government has classified copper as a critical mineral under the Defense Production Act, aiming to secure domestic copper resources [3] Group 3: Pulp Market - Pulp futures prices have rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with a recent increase of 5.73%, driven by supply disruptions from overseas pulp mills [8] - Domtar announced the permanent closure of its Crofton plant, reducing annual pulp production by approximately 380,000 tons, while other mills are also considering temporary shutdowns [8] - The international market for wood chips remains tight, contributing to rising prices for hardwood pulp [9] - Despite recent price increases, the overall supply-demand situation in the pulp market remains limited, with concerns over downstream paper demand affecting price stability [10] - The market is closely monitoring the price changes of imported softwood and hardwood pulps, as well as the acceptance of price increases by downstream sectors [11]