智通财经APP获悉，欧洲天然气价格结束了连续三天的下跌趋势，因为异常高温天气开始席卷整个欧洲 大陆，这可能会促使家庭增加空调的使用量以应对高温。周三，欧洲基准期货价格涨幅高达2.5%。根 据 Atmospheric G2 的数据，未来两周欧洲各地的气温将持续高于平均水平，制冷需求将飙升至自 2022 年 7 月以来的最高水平。在伦敦，气温将达到热浪阈值，超过30摄氏度。 随着夏季高温高峰的临近，欧洲和亚洲的天然气市场面临着全球有限燃料供应紧张的局面。花旗分析师 在一份报告中指出，亚洲部分地区的情况尚无定论，其中中国东部地区可能气温较为温和，而日本和韩 国的气温则可能高于正常水平。 此外，本周其他能源供应方面又出现了新的风险。法国电力公司发现有迹象表明，"应力腐蚀"裂缝可能 再次影响到其在不到三年前已修复过的某座核反应堆的管道。这家法国电力巨头不得不在 2022 年和 2023 年暂停部分核电站的运行，以修复管道裂缝，这导致能源价格飙升，因为维修工作恰逢俄罗斯对 欧洲大陆的天然气供应减少之际。 截至发稿，荷兰天然气TTF当月期货(欧洲天然气基准价格)上涨 2.4%，达到每兆瓦时 35.48 欧元。 亚洲通常会与 ...

SHMET 网讯： ICSG最新报告显示，1-3月全球精铜产量705.8万吨，同比增长3.17%，主要得益于中国、刚果金和印度产量的增长。5月SMM中国电解铜产量113.83万吨，环 比增1.26万吨，同比增12.86%，1-5月累计产量545.81万吨，同比增长11.09%，增幅较大；5月产量仍在增加，主要受前期检修炼厂如期复产、投产产能释放 产量、进口阳极板增加、副产品硫酸价格抬升等因素影响；预计到6月，检修炼厂明显减少，但铜矿紧张的情况将传导至冶炼端，使炼厂产能利用率显著下 降，电解铜产量或将下滑，7月可能持续。据SMM，5月铜精矿长单冶炼由亏损转为小幅盈利，然而铜精矿现货冶炼亏损还在2500元/吨以上，中期国内精铜 产量逐步下滑在所难免。前4个月我国精铜累计进口125.67万吨，同比仅微降。近期，电解铜出口盈利窗口扩大，部分大型冶炼厂新增出口计划。 LME铜库存快速下降 5月以来，铜价基本呈现窄幅震荡的走势，市场情绪温和中略显谨慎，基本面上，矿端持续偏紧，然而4、5月国内精铜产量并未下滑，需求也有转弱倾向， 使得铜价上下两难；上周，在关税预期之下，铜价小幅上冲。 宏观面暂时缺乏明显驱动 近期宏观面没有 ...

Core Viewpoint - ST Hongtai (SZ000525) announced a price adjustment for its 97% chlorantraniliprole product to 300,000 yuan/ton due to upstream raw material shortages, leading to a stock price surge and increased interest in related stocks [1][3][6]. Company Summary - ST Hongtai's stock price reached a limit-up on June 5, closing at 7.79 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10.112 billion yuan [1]. - The company cited a significant increase in production costs due to limited supply of upstream raw materials, prompting the price adjustment [3][6]. - ST Hongtai holds a market share of approximately 35% in the chlorantraniliprole sector and plans to establish a circular economy industrial chain project with an annual capacity of 6,000 tons by 2025 [6]. Industry Summary - The chlorantraniliprole market is experiencing tight supply, exacerbated by an explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., which accounted for 40.4% of the industry's total production capacity [7]. - The price of chlorantraniliprole has increased by over 40% compared to last year's low, with current prices around 300,000 yuan/ton, while the original price was approximately 210,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Demand for chlorantraniliprole is expected to remain strong, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America, as the market is entering a peak demand season [8].

【冠通研究】 盘中承压运行，震荡区间内波动 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 5 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日低开高走日内承压运行。美国经济数据疲软，美元走势承压。特朗普政府 近期宣布将钢铁及铝进口关税翻倍至 50%，并同步启动对铜进口的《232 条款》调查，引 发市场对铜关税政策落地的强烈预期供给方面保持偏紧预期，截止 5 月 30 日，我国现货 粗炼费(TC)-43.45 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.34 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下 滑幅度明显放缓，利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依然存在。5 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量 环比增加 1.26 万吨，升幅为 1.12%，同比上升 12.86%。1-5 月累计产量同比增加 54.48 万吨，增幅为 11.09%。国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加，位于历年同期高 位水平，目前市场对铜供应紧张预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减弱。需求方面，国内 PMI 数据向好，并且淡季需求韧性强，对铜价提供支撑。国内上期所库存五月底以来继 续去化，印证下游出口及需求力度。目前铜价依然在宽幅区间震荡，主要影响因素为宏 观环境变化，基本面除需求短短期边际走弱步入淡季外， ...

Core Insights - The ICE canola futures market is experiencing a shift in expectations, with a potential easing of supply constraints [1] - Weather factors may play a crucial role in determining whether prices will rise [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a change in the dynamics of canola supply, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices [1] - Recent trends indicate that supply tightness may be alleviating, impacting future pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Weather Influence - Weather conditions are highlighted as a significant factor that could influence price movements in the canola market [1] - The interplay between weather patterns and market prices remains a critical area for monitoring [1]

【现货】据Mysteel，截至6月4日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13100元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧价 格13050元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；基差550元/吨，日环比下跌90元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12600-13200 【供应】据Mysteel统计，5月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产348.99万吨，月环比减少0.4%，同比增加 5.8%；其中300系177.6万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增加7.5%。4月不锈钢粗钢产量350.25万吨，300系产 量182.43万吨。 【短期观点】偏弱震荡 【库存】社会库存周度数据整体回落，仓单近期一定减少。截至5月30日，无锡和佛山300系社会库存 51.08万吨，周环比减少2.02万吨。6月4日不锈钢期货库存124391吨，周环比减少10220吨。 【原料】菲律宾镍矿市场多开始6月资源采购，但是受降雨影响装船受阻，暂未有成交落地；印尼6月 （一期）内贸基准价下跌0.02美元左右，升水尚在洽谈中，预计将维持不变，雨季影响下镍矿供应仍偏 紧。镍铁市场较为平静，未有成交落地，镍铁价格持稳运行，贸易商出货多在960-970元/镍（舱底含 税）左右，铁厂对镍 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in copper inventories, reaching a one-year low, which may lead to a price surge due to supply constraints [1] - Chile's copper production forecast for 2025 is expected to decrease, contributing to the tightening supply situation in the market [1] - Additionally, the suspension of operations at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo further exacerbates the supply issues, potentially igniting the next round of price increases [1]

台积电(TSM.N)CEO：电力远未出现短缺，但供应紧张。 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has received approximately 15,000 tons of copper delivery requests, leading to the lowest inventory levels in a year [1] - Glencore is the main trader behind these delivery requests, planning to transport Russian copper to China [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing tightening supply, with premiums for certain grades of copper reaching the highest levels in over five years [1] Group 2 - The current supply constraints in copper are revealing deeper structural issues, alongside short-term trade policy impacts [3] - Short-term supply pressures are expected to increase, with copper demand showing non-linear fluctuations due to unstable economic expectations [3] - Long-term supply constraints remain valid, with copper mine supply facing timing issues rather than total volume problems [3] Group 3 - The incremental copper supply this year is expected to primarily come from the ramp-up of projects that began operations in 2024, with fewer new projects being launched [4] - The annual growth rate for copper mines in 2025 is projected to decrease from 2.4% to 1.8%, corresponding to an increase of 340,000 tons [5]

Group 1 - A mining company has suspended operations due to the collapse of its transportation infrastructure at the port, with repairs expected to take four to five months [1] - The incident has raised concerns about supply tightness in the iron ore market, leading to speculation about potential price increases [1]