Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto, the world's largest aluminum producer, is imposing an additional fee on aluminum products sold to the U.S., potentially disrupting an already strained North American aluminum market due to import tariffs [2] Group 1: Additional Fees and Costs - The additional fee imposed by Rio Tinto adds a layer on top of existing costs, which already include the Midwest premium reflecting transportation, storage, insurance, and financing costs [3] - The new fee adds an extra 1 to 3 cents on top of the Midwest premium, resulting in an increase of over 70% on the raw material price of approximately $2830 per ton, surpassing the 50% import tariff set by Trump [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The aluminum market in the U.S. is facing significant pressure due to Trump's tariffs, which were raised from 25% to 50%, leading importers to seek domestic supplies [4] - The London Metal Exchange has reported no aluminum inventory in the U.S., with the last 125 tons being withdrawn in October, indicating a critical supply shortage [4] - Domestic inventory levels are reported to be sufficient for only 35 days of consumption, a situation that typically triggers price increases [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Context - Canadian aluminum producers have redirected more metal to Europe to offset losses in the U.S. market, with Quebec accounting for about 90% of Canadian aluminum capacity [4] - A specific clause in presidential announcements allows imported aluminum to be exempt from tariffs if it is smelted and cast in the U.S., creating more demand for U.S.-manufactured aluminum [4] - In contrast, European regional premiums have decreased by about 5% year-over-year, but recent supply disruptions and upcoming EU import fees based on greenhouse gas emissions are expected to push global benchmark prices above $3000 per ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the core logic of methanol revolves around supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure. On the supply side, although domestic production has slightly decreased, the significant increase in imports has significantly boosted the total supply, and the expected resumption of subsequent installations will further increase the supply pressure. In the inventory segment, the port shows an obvious trend of inventory accumulation, and although there are differences in the inland area, overall de - stocking is difficult. High - level inventory continuously suppresses market sentiment. On the demand side, only the profits of some downstream sectors have slightly recovered, the weak pattern of the terminal has not been fundamentally improved, and the model of mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis can hardly provide strong support for the market. The firm coal price at the cost side provides some support, but the overall industry profit has deteriorated, especially the losses of some processes have intensified, and the cost support is limited. In the short term, the market lacks clear positive drivers. It is recommended to wait and see, focus on subsequent import arrivals and changes in downstream restocking willingness, and avoid blindly gambling on price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: The current spot prices are 2047 in Inner Mongolia North Line, 1620 in Shaanxi Guanzhong, 1980 in Xinjiang (outside the region), 1945 in Shandong Linyi, 2160 in Taicang, and 2055 in Henan. Compared with the previous values, the prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Taicang, and Henan have decreased by 25, 0, 25, 20, and 5 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remains unchanged [1]. - **Taicang Transaction Price Range**: The transaction price ranges in Taicang from November to December are as follows: 2045 - 2055 in early November, 2035 - 2065 in mid - November, 2045 - 2075 in late November, 2075 - 2105 in late December [3]. Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The current prices of MA2601 and MA2605 are 2055 and 2163 respectively, with a decline of 2.28% and 2.08% compared with the previous values [1].

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are rising against the market trend, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC, indicating positive investor sentiment in the sector [1] Company Performance - SMIC reported its Q3 2025 financial results, achieving total revenue of 17.162 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, marking a record high for quarterly revenue [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.64% [1] - SMIC's CEO, Zhao Haijun, provided a positive outlook for Q4, expecting revenue to remain flat or grow by 2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20% [1] Industry Trends - The global DRAM market is experiencing shortages, leading to rising prices for DRAM modules and a situation where products are hard to obtain [1] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the memory chip industry may enter a "super cycle" next year due to potential supply-demand imbalances in the storage sector [1] - The high market demand is causing a series of chain reactions in the storage chip industry, including supply shortages, price increases, and changes in ordering patterns [1]

Group 1 - Chip stocks are rising against the market trend, with Shanghai Fudan up 6.09% to HKD 41.48, Huahong Semiconductor up 3.69% to HKD 80.1, Jingmen Semiconductor up 2.17% to HKD 0.47, and SMIC up 1.43% to HKD 74.55 [1] - SMIC reported a record high revenue of CNY 17.162 billion for Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [1] - SMIC's net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 1.517 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 43.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.64% [1] Group 2 - SMIC's CEO Zhao Haijun indicated that the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, with revenue guidance flat to a 2% increase, and production lines remaining fully loaded [1] - The global DRAM market is experiencing shortages, leading to rising prices for DRAM modules and a challenging supply situation [1] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the memory chip industry may enter a "super cycle" next year due to potential supply-demand imbalances in the storage sector [1]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/17 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货下跌：供需失衡下的弱势延续 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 11月14日，玻璃期货2601合约结算价报1041元/吨，单日下跌20元，跌幅1.90%，盘中最低触及1030元/ 吨，延续近期弱势格局。此次下跌并非偶然，核心驱动力仍是供需失衡与市场预期转弱的共振。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 供应端刚性犹存，全国浮法玻璃日熔量维持高位，虽部分产区有短期限产，但新增产能释放与冷修减少支 撑供应，难以形成有效收缩。 需求端疲软是关键矛盾，房地产竣工面积同比下滑拖累核心需求，深加工企业订单同比降25%，叠加季节 性需求转淡预期，采购意愿低迷。 高库存压力进一步压制价格，当前全国浮法玻璃库存同比增幅近30%，远超均衡区间，去库进程缓慢。资 金面同样偏空，主力合约净空持仓扩大，技术面均线失守后弱势难改。 短期来看，供需矛盾未改，价格易跌难涨，但成本支撑与政 ...

Q&A 纯碱、顺酐——大宗商品热点解读 20251114 摘要 顺酐市场供需失衡加剧，2024 年起产能大幅扩张，至 2025 年总产能 达 357 万吨，较 2021 年增长 187.9%，但下游需求增速滞后，导致工 厂开工率普遍偏低，预计未来几年供需矛盾依旧严峻，市场价格或将持 续承压。 顺酐价格持续走弱，2025 年多数时间低于 2024 年水平，与原材料正 丁烷价差收窄，成本支撑减弱。多数工厂面临严重亏损，利润长期徘徊 在负值区间，仅在特殊时期出现短暂盈利，行业整体经营状况堪忧。 国内纯碱产能快速扩张，2020 年至 2025 年增加超过 1,000 万吨，总 产能达 4,450 万吨，主要集中在河南、内蒙古、江苏等地，天然碱项目 成为扩张主力，推动因素包括政府支持、市场需求增长和技术改进。 纯碱生产成本因工艺方法而异，天然碱具有显著成本优势，合成氨法和 联氨法成本波动较大。环保政策趋严，高耗能、高成本的小型装置或将 逐步退出，未来新增产能预计以天然碱为主。 纯碱行业开工率在 2025 年出现波动，夏季检修和下游需求变化是主要 影响因素。重质纯碱需求增加，轻重质比例发生变化。各地区间价格存 在差异，华 ...

Core Insights - The continuous expansion of the core CPI for six months is seen as a positive sign, but it is insufficient to determine whether a true turning point in China's economic prices has been reached, requiring further evaluation of upcoming data [1][14]. Economic Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for five consecutive months [2]. - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends and a signal of recovering consumer demand [2][3]. Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to a "supply-demand imbalance," highlighting the need for enhanced consumer demand [3]. - Consumption has become the primary driver of GDP growth this year, with various policies introduced to stimulate consumption, such as "trade-in" programs [3]. Price Dynamics - The core CPI's rise is influenced by factors such as the consumption boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and a surge in gold prices [7]. - Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with notable increases in airfares and hotel accommodation prices [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's growth reflects improving terminal consumer demand, it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices [14]. - The overall CPI is expected to remain low, with projections indicating that achieving a 2% or 3% year-on-year CPI growth next year will require multiple favorable factors, including a recovery in real estate prices and improvements in median income growth [15].

Core Insights - Sulfuric acid prices have surged significantly, currently at 773 RMB/ton, marking a 111% increase from 366 RMB/ton on January 21, 2023, a 405% increase from 153 RMB/ton on January 31, 2024, and a 740% increase from 92 RMB/ton on May 26, 2023, reaching a ten-year high [1] Industry Analysis - The price increase of sulfuric acid is attributed to multiple factors, primarily driven by cost and supply-demand imbalance [1] - The demand for sulfuric acid has surged due to the growth in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium iron phosphate batteries and semiconductors [1] - Traditional sulfur supply, which is a byproduct of petrochemicals, is constrained due to "dual carbon" targets, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch [1] Company Implications - Relevant A-share concept stocks include Huayltai and Hengguang Co., which may benefit from the rising sulfuric acid prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is currently characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a bearish trend in methanol futures prices, with the 2601 contract price falling to around 2100 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Production - Domestic methanol production capacity has steadily increased, reaching 112.55 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, with production rising to 91.82 million tons, up 9.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate for methanol plants remains high at 84.63%, with a month-on-month increase of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [2]. - Weekly average methanol production has reached 1.9921 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 96,300 tons [2]. Import Dynamics - Methanol imports remain elevated, with September 2025 imports at 1.4269 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons but a year-on-year increase of 178,100 tons [3]. - Despite temporary production halts in Iran, overall supply expectations remain robust, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [3]. Demand and Inventory Pressure - The demand side for methanol is weak, particularly in the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector, which faces risks of declining operating rates [4]. - Traditional downstream industries, such as formaldehyde, are operating at around 30% capacity, contributing to the overall weak demand [4]. - As of November 7, methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 1.2861 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 251,800 tons, indicating a growing inventory pressure that constrains price recovery [4]. - The current inventory situation, especially in coastal ports, has reached historically high levels, exacerbating downward pressure on the market [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In October, steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [11][12] Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of the 300-series stainless steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%; the cold-rolled output of the 300-series in September was 0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 10-month steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [12] Futures and Spot Market - On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at -20 (+20), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at -50 (+15) [11][16][19][22] Supply Side - In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. In September, the stainless steel net export volume was 298,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.42%; from January to September, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.50%; in September, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.49% [11][26][29][32] Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.50%; in September, the automobile sales volume was 3.2264 million units, a month-on-month increase of 12.94% and a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [11][39][42][45] Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92% [11][49][52] Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 34.43%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.791 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the high-carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,200 yuan/50 base tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high-carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The current gross profit of the self-produced high-nickel ferronickel production line is -828 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -6.08% [56][59][62][65]