中辉有色观点 盘面表现：今年以来，贵金属抢眼，供需失衡、美联储降息以及交割月大逼仓致使资金涌入 共同催生了本轮的银铂钯"疯涨"行情。但同时关键品种各个指标过热，价格巨幅调整。 ①市场涨跌情况。昨天现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口 ，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下，纽约金一度跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步 下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封 跌停；沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%， COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%，COMEX白银期货收跌7.2%。 | | 1 11 | A | | --- | --- | --- | | - | | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 白银、铂金等大波动，波及黄金。不过目前黄金本身来讲短期重大事件落地，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可，基本面短期没有重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不 | | ★ | | 确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver experienced extreme volatility on December 29, reaching a historical high of $83.971 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $74.215, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 12.3% [1]. Despite this, silver has shown an impressive year-to-date increase of over 160%, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 70% rise [1][2]. Price Movements - On December 29, London silver was reported at $75.177, down 5.23% for the day, while year-to-date it has increased by 160.25% [2]. COMEX silver also saw significant fluctuations, peaking at $82.67 and dropping to $73.71 [3]. Shanghai silver futures experienced a 10% rise before closing with only a 0.51% gain [3]. Market Dynamics - The volatility in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a recent increase in margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which raised trading costs and prompted profit-taking among investors [3]. Analysts noted that the significant price movements were driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with strong physical silver demand leading to panic buying [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market is facing a structural supply issue, as production has not kept pace with demand, leading to a situation where demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years [5]. Concerns about potential tariffs on silver and the depletion of inventories in major trading centers like London have further exacerbated the situation [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for silver, citing factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing industrial demand for silver [4][5]. However, short-term risks are accumulating, with indications of market overheating and potential profit-taking ahead of the New Year [6][7]. The upcoming risk events in January, including Federal Reserve decisions and tariff investigations, could significantly impact market sentiment [7].

此次价格异动与交易所的风控措施调整密切相关。消息面上，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）继12月12日将白银保证金上调 10%后，再度宣布于当地时间12月29日收盘后，全面上调包括黄金、白银、锂等多类金属期货的履约保证金，其中白银期 货保证金上调幅度约13.6%。国内方面，上海期货交易所（上期所）也于12月26日连发两条通知，一方面提示市场做好风险 控制，另一方面明确自2025年12月30日（星期二）收盘结算时起上调保证金标准和涨跌停板幅度，其中白银期货一般持仓 交易保证金比例调整为17%，涨跌停板幅度调整为15%。 12月29日，白银市场迎来历史性时刻，现货白银、COMEX白银期货均首次突破80美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。其中， 现货白银盘中涨幅一度逼近6%，最高触及84美元/盎司附近；COMEX白银期货同步冲高，峰值达到82.67美元/盎司的历史极 值，然而大涨之后随即迎来剧烈回调，日内最低下探至73.71美元/盎司，上演"过山车"行情。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日现货白银上演极端波动行情：开盘暴力拉升突破 80 美元 / 盎司关口，迅速触及 83 美元 / 盎司，日内涨幅一度超 5%，年内累计涨幅扩大至 52 美元；但随后 30 分钟内大幅跳水逾 6 美 元，日内振幅达 9 美元，最新报 76.5 美元 / 盎司，跌幅超 3%。同期，现货黄金高开逼近 4550 美元 / 盎 司新高后回落，跌破 4500 美元关口至 4497 美元 / 盎司。 此次异动并非偶然，Wmax拆解数据后明确三大核心驱动：一是地缘政治升级、美元弱势延续为贵金属 提供底层支撑，契合年末历史涨势规律；二是年末流动性稀薄加剧短期走势偏离基本面；三是白银纸货 与实物供需错配，Wmax供需模型验证显示实物库存难以满足交割需求，叠加美国关键矿产进口调查可 能引发贸易限制，进一步激化市场争夺。值得注意的是，Wmax风险预警系统已捕捉短期回调信号，贵 金属高位下短期投资者获利了结意愿升温，瑞银提示的交易风险与Wmax测算的"高位波动率阈值"共 振，成为白银大幅跳水的重要诱因。 2026 年贵金属走强的结构性支撑 Wmax结合宏观经济模型与行业数据推演，识别出2026年贵金属市场 ...

下周看点颇多，新年即将到来，美联储将发布12月会议纪要，外界将关注有关未来政策路径讨论的细 节。随着贵金属周五全线爆发，本轮行情能走多远受到越来越多关注。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基将进行会晤，俄乌局势能否迎来关键转折点或成为短期内油价走势的关键。 欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨0.99%，德国DAX 30指数周涨1.09%，法国CAC 40指数周涨 1.22%。 本周国际市场风云变幻，贵金属市场迎来井喷。美股全线上涨，道指周涨1.20%，纳指周涨1.22%，标 普500指数周涨1.40%。 国际油价结束连续两周下跌，外界关注地缘政治因素。WTI原油近月合约周涨0.39%，报56.74美元/ 桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨0.28%，报60.64美元/桶。 尽管近期的供应中断推动油价从12月16日的近五年低点反弹，但当前油价仍大概率录得2020年以来最大 年度跌幅。受原油产量攀升引发市场对明年供应过剩的担忧影响，布伦特原油与西得克萨斯中质原油今 年以来的跌幅已分别达到18%和20%。Aegis Hedging宙斯盾对冲基金在周五发布的报告中表示："地缘 政治溢价虽为油价提供了短期支撑，但并未从根 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）本周贵金属价格频频创出新高，引领了年末行情。当地时间26日，是美 国传统节假日后的首个交易日，贵金属黄金、白银、铂金再度迎来全线大涨，再刷历史纪录。 总台央视记者 贺嘉婧：受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创历史新高。截至当 天收盘，黄金期货主力合约价格上涨1.11%，达每盎司4552.7美元；白银期货主力合约价格大涨7.69%， 达每盎司77.196美元。本周三个完整交易日，黄金和白银期货价格保持上涨势头，接连刷新收盘历史纪 录。 在美元持续走软的背景下，黄金市场本周受到地缘政治风险升温的支撑，持续保持强劲走势。近期，美 国针对委内瑞拉的石油制裁和对该国石油贸易封锁升级等诸多不确定性因素，显著提升黄金的避险吸引 力。 黄金流动性外溢效应、美元走软以及供应紧张等因素还带动铂金、钯金等贵金属价格飙升。铂金期货价 格本周飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2400美元大关，全周涨幅超22%，钯金期价上涨约13%，达到 2023.3美元/盎司，创三年多来的最高水平。 方正中期期货有色与贵金属研究员 梁海宽：短期来看，全球白银库存紧张的矛盾无法从根本上缓解， 而且市场对这一矛盾 ...

Group 1: Core Issues of "Involution" Competition - "Involution" competition distorts market mechanisms and hinders innovation, leading to inefficient resource allocation and a lack of dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - The imbalance between supply and demand is a fundamental cause of "involution" competition, with China's manufacturing capacity outpacing domestic effective demand, as evidenced by a 2.9% year-on-year growth in retail sales and a 1.7% decline in fixed asset investment [1] - Insufficient innovation is a deep-rooted cause of "involution" competition, with many companies relying on price competition due to market saturation and limited new market space, leading to intensified internal competition [2] Group 2: Role of Platform Economy - Platform-driven business models exacerbate "involution" competition, as leading platforms monopolize data and algorithms, shifting competition from product innovation to traffic-driven strategies [3] - The reliance on platforms leads to increased costs and diluted profits for merchants, while many small businesses become "digital vassals," limiting their differentiation capabilities [3] Group 3: Government Influence - Government overreach and neglect contribute to "involution" competition, with local governments pursuing short-term economic growth through protectionism and irrational industrial layouts, resulting in overcapacity in certain industries [4] - Inadequate regulatory frameworks and a lack of understanding of new technologies hinder the correction of disorderly competition in various sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market experienced a significant rally, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increased capital flow regulations by central banks to address inflation and financial stability challenges [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.98% [1]. - COMEX silver futures surged by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, achieving a weekly gain of 18.06% [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is being supported by rising geopolitical risks and low market liquidity as the year-end approaches [3]. - A significant factor in silver's recent price surge is the supply mismatch following a historic "short squeeze" event in October, compounded by speculative inflows [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analyst Peter Krauth is optimistic about silver's long-term prospects, predicting a potential rise to $300 per ounce, driven by supply-demand imbalances and a significant correction in the gold-silver ratio [4]. - Krauth's forecast is based on the expectation that the gold-silver ratio, which has decreased from a peak of 104 to around 68, will further decline to 15 during a forthcoming market "frenzy" phase [4]. - Factors such as a weakening dollar, high government deficits, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks are also seen as catalysts for the current precious metals rally [4].

三重核心逻辑驱动贵金属集体走强 货币政策宽松预期奠定上涨基石 全球流动性宽松周期的开启是本轮贵金属上涨的核心驱动力。2025年美联储已完成三次降息，欧元区、英国等主要经济体同步跟进，市场对2026年进一步降 息的预期持续升温。低利率环境显著降低了黄金、白银等无息资产的持有机会成本，推动资金从固定收益类资产向贵金属市场转移。苏商银行特约研究员武 泽伟指出，这是市场对全球货币政策形成共识后的集中反应，宽松周期下货币信用扩张引发的通胀担忧，进一步强化了贵金属的抗通胀属性。 美元指数的持续走弱为涨势提供了额外支撑。2025年美元指数累计下跌8.37%，而全球贵金属均以美元计价，美元贬值直接提升了非美货币持有者的购买 力，刺激了全球范围内的配置需求。数据显示，全球最大黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust和白银ETF iShares Silver Trust年内均录得巨额资金流入，其中iShares Silver Trust单日增持规模创下2023年1月以来新高。 地缘风险与供需失衡双向助推 全球地缘局势的持续动荡为贵金属注入了强劲避险溢价。中东局势紧张、欧洲地缘冲突升级、委内瑞拉被美国实施石油运输封锁等事件，不断 ...

镍期货市场：美指震荡下跌以美元计价大宗商品受青睐，隔夜伦镍收涨0.13%；伦镍最新收盘报15660 美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨，涨幅为0.13%，成交16136手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震荡，尾盘大幅收 跌，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报125100元/吨，跌幅为1.47%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月24伦镍库存报255696吨，较前一日库存量增加1092吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报127500元/吨，较前一日结算价格上涨 540元，9:20分沪镍主力合约最新收报124010元/吨，跌2950元；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震 荡；年末市场呈现典型的跨年特征，港股假期休市使得交投阶段性清淡，北向资金暂停也削弱了短期流 动性。机构调仓与获利了结意愿增强，推动部分资金从前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块流向估值相对较 低、防御属性较强的蓝筹品种。与此同时，多家上市公司披露减持计划，引发市场对部分热门标的估值 压力的担忧，进一步强化了资金的避险心态，抑制市场投机需求。镍自身过剩及高库存压制震荡下跌。 供需端及产业链现状 当前镍市运行的核心逻辑仍围绕供需失衡与高库存压力展开。印 ...