Core Viewpoint - The main narrative for 2025 revolves around two key sources of returns: the fluctuation of currency values, particularly the US dollar against other currencies and gold, and the relative performance of US stocks compared to non-US stocks and gold, with gold being the best-performing asset of the year [5][6][8]. Group 1: Currency Value Changes - The US dollar depreciated against several currencies: down 0.3% against the Japanese yen, 4% against the Chinese yuan, 12% against the euro, 13% against the Swiss franc, and 39% against gold [6][7]. - The overall narrative indicates that weaker currencies experienced sharper declines, while stronger currencies appreciated [7]. - Gold was the best-performing investment, yielding a 65% return in USD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18% return by 47 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - US stocks, while strong in USD terms, showed weaker performance when measured against stronger currencies, indicating a relative underperformance compared to international markets [16]. - European stocks outperformed US stocks by 23%, Chinese stocks by 21%, UK stocks by 19%, and Japanese stocks by 10%, with emerging market stocks returning 34% [17]. - The S&P 500's total return was driven by a 12% growth in corporate earnings and a 5% increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with the "seven giants" of the index accounting for a significant portion of this growth [18]. Group 3: Long-term Return Expectations - The long-term expected return for stocks is estimated at approximately 4.7%, while current bond returns are around 4.9%, indicating a very thin equity risk premium [19][20]. - The narrowing of credit spreads to very low levels suggests limited room for further compression, which could lead to upward pressure on spreads and negatively impact equities and credit markets [21]. Group 4: Political and Geopolitical Influences - Political changes, particularly under the Trump administration, have significantly influenced market dynamics, with policies aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing and AI technology impacting asset allocation and investor sentiment [25][26]. - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics has increased conflict risks and heightened military spending, further influencing market behaviors and asset preferences [31]. Group 5: Other Influential Forces - The ongoing climate change and technological advancements, particularly in AI, are shaping the investment landscape, with the current AI boom being described as in the early stages of a bubble [31][34]. - The interplay of debt, currency, market dynamics, domestic politics, and geopolitical factors will continue to drive the overall investment environment [34].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 联系人 长端收益率走高，利差大多小幅收窄 ——信用分析周报（2025/12/29-2026/1/4） 投资要点： 本周信用热点事件：12 月 26 日"15 天安人寿"公告实质性违约。 本周市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 192 亿元。本周由于元旦节前整体发行量较少， 不同评级不同券种的平均发行利率较上周变化幅度相对较大。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 8328 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用 债换手率较上周整体下行。本周 1Y 短端信用债收益率小幅下行，其余不同评级不同 期限的信用债收益率大多有所上行。总体来看，本周不同行业不同评级的信用利差 较上周波动幅度均不超过 5BP，且大多有所压缩。具体来看，本周 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【固收】信用债成交活跃度有所上升，信用利差整体呈现走阔态势——信用债月度观察（2025.12） 截至2025年12月末，我国存量信用债余额为31.29万亿元。2025年12月1日-12月31日，信用债共发行10892.32亿 元，月环比下降17.19%；总偿还额9125.63亿元，净融资1766.69亿元。 （张旭/秦方好） 2026-01-04 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【银行】公募销售新规落地，理财配置如何演变？——《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》点评 2025年12月31日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，主要涉及合理调降认申购费率、 简化赎回费 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state of credit bond issuance and maturity in China, indicating a decrease in issuance and a mixed performance in net financing across different types of bonds [4][5]. Group 1: Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity - As of December 31, 2025, the total outstanding credit bond balance in China is 31.29 trillion yuan. In December 2025, a total of 1,089.23 billion yuan in credit bonds was issued, representing a month-on-month decrease of 17.19%. The total repayment amount was 912.56 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 176.67 billion yuan [4]. - The outstanding balance of local government financing bonds (城投债) is 15.37 trillion yuan. In December 2025, the issuance of local government bonds reached 371.72 billion yuan, which is a month-on-month decrease of 9.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.55%. The net financing amount for local government entities was 44.42 billion yuan [4]. - The outstanding balance of industrial bonds (产业债) is 15.92 trillion yuan. In December 2025, the issuance of industrial bonds was 717.52 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 20.8% but a year-on-year increase of 22.17%. The net financing for industrial entities was 132.25 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Credit Bond Transactions and Spreads - In December 2025, the transaction volume of local government bonds was 1,101.40 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease. The turnover rate for local government bonds was 7.17% [5]. - The transaction volume of industrial bonds in December 2025 was 1,473.46 billion yuan, with both month-on-month and year-on-year increases. The turnover rate for industrial bonds was 9.23% [5]. - The credit spreads for local government bonds across various ratings widened compared to the previous month, indicating increased risk perception. Similarly, the credit spreads for industrial bonds also widened across all ratings [5].

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

固定收益周报 成交规模继续增长，信用利差分化 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 16 证 券 研 究 报 核心观点： 本期（12 月 22 日至 12 月 28 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率有所分化， 表现为高等级多数下行，中低等级多数上行态势，整体变化幅度为-3 BP 至 2 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，公司债、定向工具发行金额 减少，中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比减少，公司债、 短期融资券、定向工具净融资额减少，企业债、中期票据净融资额增加，企业债、 短期融资券、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据净融资额为正。二级市 场方面，本期信用债成交金额环比增长，企业债、公司债、中期票据、定向工具 成交金额增加，短期融资券成交金额减少。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据、企业债、城投债信用利差有所分化，1 年期、7 年期多数走阔，3 年期、5 年期多数收窄。分位数来看，多 ...

11月，央行连续九个月加量续作MLF，资金面合理充裕。11月，央行维持积极的操作，连续四个月通过买断式逆回购和MLF净投放6000亿元中长期资金， 全月公开市场整体净投放1738亿元。具体来看，11月，央行MLF提量续做10000亿元、净投放1000亿元，为连续第九个月加量续作；买断式逆回购投放 15000亿元、净投放5000亿元；国债买卖净投放500亿元；逆回购净回笼5562亿元；国库现金定存净投放800亿元。11月资金面整体延续了合理充裕的格局， 中下旬受政府债券集中发行缴款的影响，流动性一度边际收紧，月末在央行精准有力的呵护下重回平稳。 主要回购利率小幅上行。DR001、R001月度加权均值分别环比上行3BP、上行5BP至1.37%和1.43%；DR007、R007月度加权均值分别环比持平于1.47%、 1.51%。全月DR007最低值1.413%、最高值1.5239%、中位数1.4688%；波动幅度为11个基点，环比减少8个基点。具体看，月初政府债发行量和银行存单到 期量较小，OMO大额净回笼，但央行等量续作3个月7000亿元买断式逆回购，资金面保持平稳。月中在缴税走款、政府债集中缴款、存单大量到期等 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of industrial bonds in 2025, as well as a financial analysis of different industries, aiming to provide investors with a reference for investment decisions [1][34][61] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 15,700 narrow - caliber credit bonds have been issued in 2025, with a total scale of 13.91 trillion yuan. After excluding urban investment bonds, 7,440 industrial bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [1][10] - 16 industries have an annual issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top - ranked industries in terms of issuance scale being public utilities (1.95 trillion yuan/1,060 bonds), non - bank finance (1.38 trillion yuan/1,407 bonds), and transportation (1.00 trillion yuan/805 bonds) [1][13] - In terms of bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and corporate bonds have relatively high issuance amounts, accounting for 41.3%, 34.6%, and 23.0% respectively. Among special varieties, the annual issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds accounts for over 20%, and that of green bonds accounts for 4% [16] - The scale of industrial bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises accounts for over 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly concentrated at the AAA level. Geographically, Beijing has the largest issuance scale, followed by Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [20] - In terms of issuance term, the issuance scale of industrial bonds with a term of 1 year or less is the largest, accounting for 35.7%, followed by 1 - 3 years (35.1%) and 3 - 5 years (19.8%) [28] - In terms of issuance interest rate, the proportion of industrial bonds with a coupon rate of 2% or less is the highest, reaching 57%, followed by 2% - 3% (40%), and the average annual issuance coupon rate is 2.15% [31] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trend Review - Since the beginning of the year, affected by policies, funds, and market preferences, the yield of credit bonds has experienced two rounds of first rising and then falling, showing an M - shaped trend, which can be divided into four stages [34] - From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the yield rose rapidly, and the credit spread widened to the highest level of the year. From late March to early July, the yield declined continuously, and the credit spread narrowed. From mid - July to the end of September, the yield rose again, and the credit spread widened. From October to now, the yield has declined fluctuantly, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened [34][35][36] 2.2 Overview of Outstanding Industrial Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, there are 13,625 outstanding industrial bonds in the narrow - caliber credit bond market, with a total scale of 15.39 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [39] - The public utilities and non - bank finance industries have an outstanding industrial bond scale of over 2 trillion yuan, significantly leading other industries. The issuers of outstanding industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in high - grade central and local state - owned enterprises [39][41] - The weighted average remaining term of outstanding industrial bonds is 3.08 years. Industries with a longer weighted average remaining term include comprehensive, communication, and coal, while industries with a shorter term include media, light manufacturing, and national defense and military industry [46][49] - In terms of implicit ratings, AA(2) and AA - rated industrial bonds account for 25% in total, ranking first, followed by AA+ (24%) and AAA (19%) [52] - Taking AAA - rated industrial bonds as an example, industries such as real estate, coal, and pharmaceutical biology have relatively high spreads, with certain yield - mining potential [58] 3. Industry - Specific Financial Analysis 3.1 Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. Among the 29 industries, 11 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total revenue, with machinery and equipment and computer industries leading in revenue growth [62] - The total net profit of industrial bond issuers reached 2.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.32%. 16 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total net profit, with textile and apparel and steel industries leading in growth [62] - The non - bank finance industry has a net profit margin of over 30%, far higher than other industries, followed by environmental protection and public utilities industries, with a net profit margin of over 10% [62] 3.2 Debt Situation - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries such as building decoration and real estate have relatively high debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of over 70%, while industries such as national defense and military industry and media have relatively low debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of less than 50% [64] - The total interest - bearing debt of industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. Only 4 industries, including communication, textile and apparel, electronics, and real estate, saw a year - on - year decrease in total interest - bearing debt [64] - Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and social services have a relatively high proportion of interest - bearing debt to total liabilities, over 70%, while industries such as automobile and national defense and military industry have a relatively low proportion, less than 45%, with relatively low debt - repayment pressure [64] 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries with strong short - term debt - repayment ability include textile and apparel, national defense and military industry, media, and light manufacturing, with a coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt of over 100%, while industries such as non - bank finance, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical have relatively weak short - term debt - repayment ability, with a coverage ratio of less than 50% [66] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of operating cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 18.40% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive operating cash flow, 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net inflow of financing cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 145.37% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive financing cash flow, 6 industries, including electronics and environmental protection, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net outflow of investment cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 14.33% year - on - year, with an overall increase in investment expenditure. All 29 industries had a net outflow of investment cash flow, and 19 industries, including comprehensive and computer, saw an increase in investment expenditure [68]