Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the cloud service business has turned profitable, driving overall profit growth for the company in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 4.343 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 183 million yuan, up 73.26% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved significantly to 23.37%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid growth of the cloud service business [4] Group 2 - The cloud service revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.274 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.96%, while the management software and IoT solutions reported revenues of 1.198 billion yuan and 1.872 billion yuan, showing slight declines of 0.34% and 4.46% respectively [4] - The operating profit from the cloud service business was 20 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a turnaround from a loss of 71 million yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company has launched the Haiyue Model V3.0, which enhances the intelligence of cloud service products and has been applied in various enterprises, including Beijing Tongrentang [6][7] Group 3 - The company has signed contracts with major state-owned enterprises for its management software, indicating a successful penetration into the market [8] - The IoT solutions focus on equipment manufacturing, smart manufacturing, and communication information, with significant projects signed in these areas [9] - The company forecasts revenues of 9.076 billion yuan, 10.022 billion yuan, and 10.996 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 541 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [9]

华泰证券指出，10月开始基本面和供给都进入对债有利的阶段，资金面维持平稳，降息降准、购债依然 有博弈空间。预计节后债市偏弱震荡，关注十五五规划、公募销售新规落地、或机构行为冲击带来超调 时的小幅反击机会，十年国债老券1.8%以上逢调整配置。品种上，短期建议继续保持5-7年及以下利率 债、中短端信用债持仓，规避超长债。坚持中期曲线小幅陡峭化判断。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月30日 债海观潮，大势研判 基本面改善仍需验证，债市存在阶段性机会 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第十一期 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：赵婧 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 证券分析师：田地 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 行情回顾：9月全部债券品种收益率上行；利率债方面，10年国开债为利率上行幅度最高的品种； 信用债方面，长期限品种信用利差上升幅度最为显著；违约方面，9月违约金额略有下降； Ø 海外基本面：美国经济景气回落，就业表现疲软；美国CPI通胀继续回升，通胀预期略有上升； 欧洲日本经济景气继续扩张； Ø 国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment is weak, with all treasury bond futures closing lower. The bond market is volatile between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Catalogues I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a 0.10% increase and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.94, down 0.25 or 0.25%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1237, down 0.017 or 0.24%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, up 0.03 or 1.74%. DR007 is 1.59, up 0.03 or 2.04%. R007 is 1.51, down 0.05 or 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, down 0.01 or 0.43%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a - 0.43% change [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [15][16][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [33][27]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][35][36]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [48][42][51]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [60][65][62]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][72][73]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate is volatile, and the price of treasury bond futures is also volatile. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

| 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 颜子琦 | S0350525090002 | | | | | yanzq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭溪源 | S0350125090019 | | | | guoxy@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益专题研究：转债抢权配售策略怎么看？ *颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-09-24 《固定收益点评：债市性价比如何？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-08 《债券研究周报：存款搬家进行时，对债市影响几 何*靳毅，刘畅》——2025-09-02 2025 年 09 月 29 日 债券研究周报 《固定收益点评：9 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-01 《固定收益专题研究：本轮牛市，可转债怎么看？ *靳毅，范圣哲》——2025-08-31 [Table_Title] 从三个细节谈起，债券调整到位了吗？ 债市机构行为周报（9 月第 4 周） 投资要点： 利率破位后，机构行为的三大变化与后续展望 9 月第 4 周债市走势震荡，根据 Wind 统计，截 ...

报告导读： 四季度债市或"前不弱，后不强"。 在 9 月末债市跌幅较大的情况下，虽然债市长期走弱趋势难以逆转，但跨季债市反而可能趋于平稳甚至局部修复。 过去一周内，虽然 10 年期国债利率走 稳，但债市实际上出现了全面回调。以中债到期收益率口径来看，利率债中相对高弹性的品种如 30 年国债、 10 年期国开等有回调，信用债也演绎补跌行 情，其中基金持仓较重的二永债跌幅更深。从历史规律来看，四季度债市往往呈现"先弱后强"。但 2025 年的情况可能有所不同，我们认为四季度大概率不 会有新增政策出台，债市可能是"前不弱，后不强"。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 跨季前后的阶段性平台期；报告日期：2025.09.28 报告作者： 唐元懋（分析师），登记编号：S0880524040002 杜润琛（研究助理），登记编号：S0880123090079 孙越（分析师），登记编号：S0880525080004 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The bond market may move forward in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [3][5][16] - There is still an opportunity for overall easing in monetary policy, and the period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] - The "redemption pressure" has become long - term and complex, which may still impact the bond market in the fourth quarter [4][12][14] Group 2: Core Views Short - and Medium - term Views - In the short term, the bond market is still under pressure. It is important to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If it is verified that around 1.8% is the relatively top level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic of the downward - trending yield can still be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk preference is more reflected in the term spread premium, and in extreme cases, it may return to the level of 50 - 60BP [3][10] Monetary Policy Views - The third - quarter monetary policy meeting did not release clear incremental policy signals. But considering factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the adjustment of liability interest rates after the previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the policy demand to maintain economic improvement, and the marginal cooling of the equity market sentiment, there is still an opportunity for overall easing. The period around the important meeting in October is a crucial time window [3][10] Redemption Pressure Views - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The redemption game around the systematic adjustment of the product liability side is ongoing. The institutional - end redemption may be more orderly, which may lead to a stage where the upward risk of yields is controllable but difficult to decline significantly. However, there may also be a stage of concentrated release of negative - feedback risks [4][12][14] Seasonal, Valuation, and Factor Analysis - Seasonally, since 2010, in 15 years, the 10 - year yield has accumulated an increase in 8 years and a decrease in 7 years in the fourth quarter. Considering the cumulative decline in the first three quarters, the bond market in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak and in need of adjustment. In terms of valuation, the bond market has allocation value. Considering factors such as the slowdown of supply pressure, the possible occurrence of monetary easing opportunities, and the continuous existence of redemption pressure, the bond market may alternate between recovery and adjustment [5][16] Group 3: Content Summarized by Directory Fourth - Quarter Bond Market Outlook - Short - term pressure remains, and it is necessary to verify the decline of long - term interest rate rebound highs. Medium - term risk preference recovery affects term spreads. There is an opportunity for monetary easing around the October meeting. The redemption pressure is long - term and complex, and the bond market may move forward in a volatile manner, alternating between recovery due to allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure [3][4][5] Comparison of Monetary Policy Meetings in Q3 and Q2 of 2025 - The assessment of the economic situation has not changed significantly. The monetary policy emphasizes continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight. It aims to maintain liquidity, guide credit investment, reduce financing costs, and support key areas [11][12][13] Impact of Redemption Pressure on the Bond Market - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented. The institutional - end redemption demand is increasing, the asset - end selection space after redemption is limited, and there is time for adjustment during the transition period. This may lead to a complex impact on the bond market [4][12][14]

近期市场波动较大，当前临近长假，在较大不确定性情况下，市场关注如何应对跨 节。 从季节性来看，国庆前后长债并不存在明显的季节性，而资金在节后则往往会季 节性宽松。从过去 4 年经验来看，国庆节后利率上升压力不大，国庆后首周 10 年 国债平均下行在 0.9bp，而整个 10 月相对于 9 月底，利率平均下行 0.2bp，其中 2022 年和 2024 年长债利率在 10 月均有所回落。而从资金状况来看，节后资金首 周或有季节性回落，往年经验来看，10 月资金也未有明显收紧。结合当前融资需 求不足，且央行对流动性保持呵护的情况，整体资金预计将继续保持宽松，R007 有望继续保持 1.4%-1.5%附近运行。 虽然说往年季节性如此，但每一年都有自己的特殊情况，因而也不好完全照搬。 从目前情况来看，宽松的资金面和偏弱的基本面依然是债市中期的安全保障。近 几个月融资需求偏弱，信贷保持同比少增，并且社融增速放缓。结合后续相对有限 的资产统计，即使考虑到 4 季度可能提前发行再融资债，如果假定提前增发 1 万 亿，那么政府债券供给也较去年少 0.7 万亿左右，因而预计资金将保持持续宽松， 资产荒有望加剧。同时，近期基本面 ...

周度报告-国债期货 债市震荡寻底，持续调整概率不高 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡下跌 国 债 期 货 本周（09.22-09.28）国债期货震荡下跌。周一，受央行开展 14 天期逆回购影响，债市情绪整体偏暖；尾盘国新办发布会主要 总结"十四五"期间金融领域成就，并未谈及短期刺激政策， 期债收涨。周二，市场较为担忧公募基金费率发生变化，即使 上午股市震荡走弱，国债也未能走强，尾盘股市有所拉升，国 债期货跌幅扩大。周三，央行并未开展 14 天逆回购操作，资金 面边际收敛，叠加股市上涨，券商等机构做空国债期货的意愿 较强，国债期货震荡下跌。尾盘央行宣布明日开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，资金面边际缓和，但对债市影响暂有限。周四，早 盘权益表现强势，债市大幅下跌，TL 合约刷新年内新低。午后 权益走弱，国债期货超跌反弹。周五，市场消息面较为平静， 资金整体均衡，股市震荡走弱，国债期货小幅上涨。截至 9 月 26 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结 算价分别为 102.358、105.630、107.755 和 114.880 元，分别较上 周末变动-0.006、+0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (9/22 - 9/26), bond market yields first rose and then fell, mainly driven by central bank open - market operations, end - of - quarter and holiday - related liquidity fluctuations, and stock - bond seesaw effects. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP [1][8]. - Looking ahead to next week, the liquidity situation will face month - end and quarter - end challenges, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday. The fundamentals show mixed production indicators, mixed real - estate transaction year - on - year performance, and a comprehensive decline in the price index. The supply of interest - rate bonds decreased from 9/22 - 9/28. The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity this week [2][3]. - The bond market is facing headwinds in a volatile environment, and there are mainly allocation opportunities. Next week, attention should be paid to the release of the September PMI data, the central bank's support for the liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period, and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on market sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market: Interest Rates First Rose and Then Fell, and the Yield Curve Remained Essentially Flat - From 9/22 - 9/26, bond market yields first rose and then fell. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP. The 10Y yield movement was influenced by central bank support for end - of - quarter liquidity, increased market risk - aversion before the holiday, and market expectations regarding the new public - fund fee regulations [1][8]. - Specifically, on 9/22, bond market interest rates declined slightly. The central bank's net injection of 2605 billion yuan through 14D and 7D OMOs loosened the liquidity and boosted market sentiment. On 9/23, yields rose due to the central bank's shift from net injection to net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan and market concerns about the new public - fund regulations and tax - exemption policies. On 9/24, yields continued to rise as the stock market was strong and the central bank's 7D OMOs led to a net withdrawal. On 9/25, yields declined as the central bank injected 2965 billion yuan through 7D OMOs to support end - of - quarter liquidity. On 9/26, yields continued to decline as the central bank's net injection of 4115 billion yuan through 7D and 14D OMOs and the stock market adjustment before the holiday supported the bond market [26][27]. 3.2 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook: Liquidity Faces Month - End and Quarter - End Challenges, Likely to Return to Equilibrium after the Holiday - Fundamentals: Production indicators were mixed. The开工 rates of refined PTA and automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.355 and 0.08 percentage points respectively, while the blast - furnace开工 rate increased by 0.47 percentage points. On the demand side, overall demand recovered, but real - estate transactions were still mixed. The year - on - year change in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6.57%, while that of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 39.15%. Passenger - car sales also recovered with an increased margin, rising 10.36% year - on - year. The price index declined comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.94% and 0.1% respectively, the production - material price index decreased by 0.2%, and the crude - oil price decreased by 5.22% year - on - year [31][43][49]. - Supply: From 9/22 - 9/28, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds decreased. The issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) was 2475.3 billion yuan, 1960.51 billion yuan, and 7918.7 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 2600.98 billion yuan compared to last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 84.3% (including the planned issuance next week), and the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds was 84.3% and 84% respectively [2][64]. - Liquidity: From 9/22 - 9/26, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity. This week, the liquidity tightened marginally. DR001 and DR007 changed by - 15BP and 4BP respectively compared to 9/19, reaching 1.36% and 1.49%. The yields of 3M and 1Y CDs changed by about 1BP each, reaching 1.59% and 1.69%. The 1Y - 3M CD term spread remained at 10BP, and the 6M - 3M CD term spread expanded by 1BP to about 7BP. Next week, due to month - end, quarter - end, and the National Day holiday, the liquidity may tighten seasonally, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday with central bank support [3][70]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: Bond Market Faces Headwinds in a Volatile Environment, with Allocation Opportunities - Attention should be paid to three aspects: the release of September PMI data and the market's pricing of the expected upward repair of fundamentals; the central bank's support for liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period; and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on marginal redemptions and market expectations [80]. - Considering these factors, the potential for further downward pricing of fundamentals is limited compared to the expected upward repair. Although the bond market has shown some desensitization to the strong stock market since late August, risky assets such as stocks still suppress the bond market. The implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations may cause short - term negative feedback in the market, but the probability of significant redemptions disrupting the market is currently low. If there is a significant daily pulse of 2 - 4BP or more, it is advisable to seize the opportunity. Overall, the bond market is unlikely to experience a significant bear market, but short - term fluctuations may increase. The 1.8% level of the 10Y active bond offers good allocation value. In a volatile market, it is advisable to maintain an appropriate duration and increase allocations when yields are high. The short - end yields are likely to return to equilibrium after the month - end, with the policy rate (1.4%) as the lower limit. Currently, the short - end has reached 1.39%, so the odds of short - term profit - taking are limited. For the long - end, although the main trend has not changed significantly, short - term negative factors may accumulate, and fluctuations may increase. It is still recommended to seize the allocation opportunity at the 1.8% key level [4][5][87]. 3.3 Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Economic Calendar - Central bank open - market operations: In the past four weeks, the net injections (or withdrawals) were 4961 billion yuan, - 12047 billion yuan, 1961 billion yuan, 5623 billion yuan, and 9406 billion yuan respectively. Next week, there will be net withdrawals of 5166 billion yuan and 19508 billion yuan in one and two weeks respectively [88]. - Next week's fund calendar (9/29 - 10/5): The expected issuance of local government bonds is 526.97 billion yuan and 544.55 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. The maturity amounts of CDs are relatively high on Thursday and Friday. The maturity amounts of reverse repos are 2405 billion yuan and 2761 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. Thursday is a tax - payment week, and it is not a reserve - payment week [91]. - Next week's economic calendar: On September 30th at 9:30, the official non - manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI (market expectation: 50.10), and comprehensive PMI for September will be released [91].