人民财讯12月8日电，进入12月，债券市场寒风乍起，债券基金个券踩雷和集体下跌同时出现。 向来以稳健著称的债券基金，在近期却"负面缠身"，其中，华宸未来基金旗下一只产品单周下跌超 7%，回吐了近两年多的累计收益，也引发市场对于踩雷个券的广泛猜测；同时，在年末流动性预期的 扰动下，近一个月以来，全市场约七成债基出现普遍下跌。 面对债市回调与部分信用风险的冲击，市场情绪趋于谨慎，多位公募投研人士认为，虽然债市短期趋于 震荡，但投资者对债券的配置需求仍广泛存在，投资者可以关注市场超调后的机会。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market fluctuated more significantly during the policy window period, with the overall yield oscillating upward and the curve slightly steepening. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. As of November 28, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5BP to 1.84%, and the 1-year Treasury yield went up 2BP to close at 1.4%, with the term spread widening by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - In December, attention should be paid to the statements of key central meetings, the subsequent operation scale of the central bank's restarted Treasury bond trading, the actual implementation of the public offering fee new regulations, and the marginal constraints of the "ceiling and floor" state of the 10-year bond on the current market pricing of 1.85%. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared. It is recommended to seize the current key position with high cost - effectiveness [4][5][66]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Slightly Steepened - In November, affected by factors such as capital - side fluctuations, the continued play of the stock - bond seesaw effect, and repeated policy expectations, the bond market's volatility intensified. The 10Y Treasury yield rose by 5BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 2BP. The term spread widened by 1BP to 44BP [1][8]. - Different maturities of the Treasury yield curve showed structural differentiation, with the ultra - short and medium - long - term yields rising more significantly. The implied tax rate of policy - bank bonds generally rebounded [9]. - Overseas, the market expected that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December was 15.3%, while the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut rose to around 85%. As of November 28, compared with the end of October, the US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.02%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion narrowed by 14BP to around 218BP [10]. - Throughout November, the bond market showed different trends in each week. The first week saw an oscillating upward trend in yields; the second week presented a narrow - range consolidation pattern; the third week showed a differentiation between short - and long - term yields; and the fourth week witnessed a steep upward shift in yields [16][19][22]. II. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Pay Attention to the Statements of Key Central Meetings in December and Whether Institutions Will Make a Pre - emptive Move at the Year - End - **Fundamentals**: Continue to focus on the impact of inflation improvement, the resilience of exports under high - base effects, the improvement of PMI sentiment, the possible warming of real - estate supply and demand data, and the possible improvement of the shortfall in social financing [2][23]. - **Supply Side**: It is expected that the net supply of government bonds in December will be around 650 billion yuan, basically falling back to a relatively low level within the year. The use of the remaining quota will drive the continued issuance of special bonds [2][42]. - **Funding Side**: Although the scale of government bond issuance will fall to a low level within the year, the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit next month may put pressure on the liquidity of the banking system. However, the central bank's attitude of care is clear, and it is expected that the funding side will be generally balanced and loose [2][46]. - **Policy Side**: Focus on the two major economic meetings in December. It is expected that there will be updates on policies related to broad - money, active fiscal policies, consumption, real estate, and debt resolution. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased [3][56]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In November, various institutions generally increased their holdings, with the allocation - oriented investors increasing their positions while the trading - oriented investors reducing their scale. In December, pay attention to the possible marginal redemptions of wealth management products after the formal implementation of the public offering sales fee new regulations, the trading games of public funds and other trading - oriented investors, the possible increase in holdings by wealth management products and rural commercial banks in the banking system, and the allocation layout of insurance - based allocation - oriented investors [3][59][60]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market Will Be Mainly Volatile, and Seize the Allocation Cost - Effectiveness at the Short - Term Ceiling of 1.85% - Consider multiple aspects such as fundamentals, supply, funding, policies, and institutional behavior. In December, the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile. The allocation value at around 1.85% has reappeared, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity [66][67][68]. III. Important Economic Calendar for December The report lists important economic indicators to be announced in December and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, CPI, PPI, and other data [70].

上周债市整体走弱，收益率曲线呈现熊陡走势 ——利率债周报（2025.11.24-2025.11.30） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 核心观点 上周债市整体走弱，长债收益率明显上行。全周看，10 年期国债期货主 力合约累计下跌 0.30%；上周五，10 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 2.46bp， 1 年期国债收益率较前一周五微幅上行 0.09bp，期限利差继续走阔。 1 www.dfratings.com 11 月 24 日：周一，债市整体窄幅震荡，交易量也有所下降。当日银行间 主要利率债收益率多数上行，其中，10 年期国债收益率上行 0.44bp；国 债期货各期限主力合约收盘全线上涨，10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%。 11 月 25 日：周二，尽管央行超量续作 MLF，但受股市表现强势影响，债 市偏弱震荡。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行，整体变化微弱，其 中 10 年期国债收益率上行 0.91bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数下 跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%。 11 月 26 日：周三，尽管股市下跌，但由于债市情绪较弱，加之基金销售 新规即将落地的传闻扰动，债市整体承压走弱。当日银行间主要利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest rate cuts, a marginally weakening but overall resilient economy, and inflation continuing to rise moderately, the bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation within the year [6] Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Performance: Favorable Factors Materialized, Bond Market Bearish - **Market Yield and Contract Price**: In early November, after the favorable policy of central bank's bond trading was implemented, with MLF and outright reverse repurchase continuing net injection, the capital was loose. However, the market's expectation of central bank's interest rate cut was low, resulting in a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation in the bond market. The bond yields oscillated slightly upward, and the yield curve steepened. As of November 28, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 1.42%, 1.62%, 1.84%, and 2.19% respectively, up 1.61BP, 5.21BP, 4.58BP, and 4.20BP from October 31. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 102.378 yuan, 105.745 yuan, 107.94 yuan, and 114.49 yuan respectively, down 0.16%, 0.30%, 0.68%, and 1.88% from October 31 [4][9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On November 28, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 30770, 58008, 66598, and 97157 respectively, with changes of - 3531, 349, - 12082, and - 22444 compared to October 31. The open interests were 67266, 144566, 234480, and 168934 respectively, with changes of - 16912, - 33502, - 50216, and - 13910 [14] - **Net Basis Spread**: The net basis spread showed a narrow - range oscillation [15] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of TS decreased slightly, and the long - end inter - delivery spread also declined slightly [17][20] 2. Policy Dynamics: Low Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - **Reverse Repurchase**: In November, reverse repurchase was flexibly deployed, with a cumulative net injection of 48056 billion yuan, a maturity of 53618 billion yuan, and a net withdrawal of 5562 billion yuan. The reverse repurchase balance at the end of November was 15118 billion yuan. As of November 28, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.43%, 1.52%, 1.30%, and 1.47% respectively, with changes of 1.83BP, 2.99BP, - 1.51BP, and 1.17BP from October 31 [24] - **Outright Reverse Repurchase**: In November, the central bank carried out 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase and 8000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase. After considering the maturity amount, the two - term outright reverse repurchase had a net additional operation of 5000 billion yuan, injecting medium - term liquidity into the market for the sixth consecutive month [28] - **MLF**: In November, the central bank carried out 10000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 9000 billion yuan of MLF maturing in the same month, there was a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [32] - **Treasury Bond Trading**: In October, the central bank resumed the suspended treasury bond trading operation since January 2025, with a net purchase of 200 billion yuan of treasury bonds [33][34] - **LPR**: In November, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous period, in line with market expectations [36] - **PSL**: In October, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 55 billion yuan, with a balance of 10093 billion yuan [36] - **Liquidity**: In November, the overall capital was loose. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit of joint - stock banks declined slightly, and the bill rate continued to be weak [39][40][43] 3. Bond Supply and Demand: Government Bonds Mostly Issued - **Bond Issuance**: In November, the total issuance of government bonds was 19571 billion yuan, with a maturity of 6786 billion yuan and a net issuance of 12785 billion yuan. As of November, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 62348 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 93.62%; the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 71231 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 92.51% [6][49] - **Special Bond Issuance**: In November, 4922 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued. From January to November, the cumulative issuance was 44568 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 96.9%, and the remaining quota for the year was 1432 billion yuan [6] - **Bond Market Trends**: The issuance multiple of local bonds in October remained low. Treasury bond yields rose slightly, US bond yields oscillated weakly, and credit bond spreads widened slightly [53][54][59][60] 4. Strategy Viewpoints: Low Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts, Bond Market Oscillation Continues - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation within the year due to loose funds, weak interest - rate - cut expectations, a marginally weakening but resilient economy, and moderately rising inflation [6]

【市场表现】 【操作建议】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【资金面】 央行公告称，11月24日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3387亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量3387亿元，中标量3387亿元。数据显示，当日2830亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净 投放557亿元。银行间市场周一资金面宽松无虞，主要期限回购利率低位盘整，存款类机构隔夜回购利 率小降并徘徊于1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价亦仍在1.3%，供给规模在千亿元左 右；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜资金，报价在1.47%-1.48%附近。资金面情绪暂时无忧，不过本周进 入跨月周，资金面或仍有波动，关注央行周二MLF续做规模及后续逆回购投放力度。 10月以来由于央行重启国债买卖、基本面偏 ...

中金研究 展望未来，短期我们认为此种态势或维持，不过需要关注股市走势，如果持续下跌则可能带来部分固收+产品的赎回，从而引发持仓债券抛售，对收益率 也会产生上行压力。但是正如我们前期判断，信用债在进入开放期的摊余成本法债基新增需求的支撑下，或相对更抗跌，信用利差仍会在低位震荡，信用 债收益率或仍将跟随利率波动。更长期限来看，2026年上半年仍有较大规模的摊余成本债基进入开放期，其中5年及以上的占比会上升，我们认为对5-7年 左右的信用债需求支撑或增加。 债市延续小幅震荡 上周现券市场窄幅震荡。周一买断式逆回购超量续作，现券多数走强，长端表现好于短端。二至周五，债市整体缺乏明显方向，股债跷跷板影响日内走 势，债券利率整体窄幅震荡。和上周五相比，10年期国债收益率上行1bp收于1.82%，10年期国开债收益率收平于1.94%，30年期国债收益率上行1bp收于 2.16%。信用债方面，上周非金融信用债一级发行量为4096亿元，较上周的2702亿元大幅增长，偿还量差异不大，故净融资额亦增长明显，由上周的231 亿元增长至1324亿元。二级方面，本周债券收益率中等久期品种表现较好，具体而言，1Y基本不变、3Y下行0-2b ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, the bond market mainly oscillated, the yields of interest - rate bonds changed within 1bp, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally rose [1]. Summary by Section 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking six consecutive months of no change [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce urged Japan to correct its wrong remarks on Taiwan. If Japan persists, China will take necessary measures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce hoped that the Netherlands would take practical actions to solve the Nexperia issue and restore the security and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [4]. - 50 cities were short - listed for the pilot program of new consumption models, and the central government will provide up to 400 million yuan per city in subsidies [4][5]. - **International News** - The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, more than double the expected 51,000, but the unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The September non - farm report deepened the Fed's internal division [6]. - **Commodities** - On November 20, WTI December crude futures fell 0.50% to $59.14/barrel, Brent January crude futures fell 0.20% to $63.38/barrel, COMEX December gold futures fell 0.56% to $4,060/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.62% to $4.490/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On November 20, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On November 20, the liquidity continued to ease, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 5.69bp to 1.365%, and DR007 dropped 2.74bp to 1.486%. Other rates such as Shibor also showed varying degrees of decline [10][11]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On November 20, the bond market mainly oscillated, and the yield changes of interest - rate bonds were within 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 rose 0.30bp to 1.8100%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 rose 0.25bp to 1.8720% [13]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds such as 25 Guokai Qingfa bonds and 25 Jinchujian bonds were tendered, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 20, the trading price of one industrial bond, "21 Taixin 06", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 11% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Events such as bond payment extension proposals, issuance cancellations, commercial paper overdue payments, and companies being restricted from high - end consumption or undergoing reorganization occurred among multiple companies [18]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 20, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling 0.40%, 0.76%, and 1.12% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.23% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 21, Maolai Convertible Bond started online subscription, and Qizhong Convertible Bond was listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced redemption - related matters [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Treasury Bonds** - On November 20, the yields of US Treasury bonds across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield dropped 3bp to 3.55%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 3bp to 4.10%. The inflation - adjusted break - even inflation rate of 10 - year US Treasury bonds dropped 3bp to 2.24% [23][25]. - **European Bonds** - On November 20, except for the 10 - year UK government bond yield which dropped 1bp, the 10 - year government bond yields of other major European economies generally rose [26]. - **Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 20, the daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds varied, with some bonds rising and some falling [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in October showed a weakening in both supply and demand, with the overall situation declining compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year under the influence of the high base in the fourth quarter, the pressure on the real estate market, and the decline in government bond growth [13]. - In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. - From a fundamental perspective, the bond market has limited downward adjustment space. Looking forward, the capital side is expected to remain loose. With the increasing uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand, there is still pressure on economic growth stabilization. The direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital-intensive industries are still difficult to change. In the long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added value declined due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment under the "anti-involution" policy, and fewer working days. New policy-based financial instruments failed to fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with a decline in exports to the United States and resilient growth in non-US regions. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not large, and the policy side may focus more on the connection policies with next year. There is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data should be observed for their indication of a December interest rate cut [10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 0.81 BP week-on-week; the 30-year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.16%, up 1.20 BP week-on-week. The latest 10-year US Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, down 8.00 BP week-on-week [13]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the economic data in October was weak on both the supply and demand sides, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year. In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [20]. - **TL Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [23]. - **TF Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [26]. - **TS Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [29]. - **TS and TF Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [33]. - **T and TL Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, showing a differentiation between the manufacturing and service industries [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with a larger decline than the new order index. The new order index continued to be below the boom-bust line, and the import index dropped to 46.8%, indicating insufficient domestic terminal consumption and investment demand [47]. - **Price Index**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the core CPI increased by 0.2%, and the PPI increased by 0.1%. The price of pork was weak due to sufficient supply, but the demand during the double festivals drove up the prices of vegetables and fruits. The year-on-year decline of the PPI narrowed [50]. - **Export Data**: In October 2025, China's import and export data was slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. Exports to the United States decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - **Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption**: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of social consumption retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of social consumption retail sales decreased due to the high base of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, but the growth rate of non-car consumption items improved [56]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -1.7%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -14.7%. In October, the month-on-month decline of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was 5.4% [59]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.4%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion - end data in October was 16.99%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [62][65]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the United States was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year-on-year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter-on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the unadjusted CPI in the United States increased by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year-on-year. In August, the order amount of durable goods in the United States was 312.4 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.63%. The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [68][71][74]. - **European Economy**: In the third quarter, the GDP of the European Union increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on - quarter. In October, the CPI in the eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year. In November, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In October, the growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.2%. The increment of social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a year-on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector was weak. The growth rate of social financing in the household and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 19.20% [82][85]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In October, the balance of MLF was 6.05 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The table shows the changes in various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91]. - **Interest Rate Charts**: Relevant charts show the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of Treasury bonds in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. There are also charts showing the Federal Reserve's target interest rate and exchange rates [94][96][97].

旗团 21世纪经济报道 理财公司月月正收益纯固收类 公募产品近一年业绩榜单 (投资周期6-12个月 | 号 | 产品名称 | 三十八 | 净值增 长率 | 最大回撤 | 年化波动 湖 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮银财富·鸿运一年定开1 4号人民可理财产品 | 中邮理财 4.25% | | 0.51% | 0.89% | | | 9个月信用精选最短的有 | 中银理财 | 3.63% | 0.05% | 0.42% | | | 斯国仅里斯音品A | | | | | | | 邮政营销量可能运用期365 天型3号人民币理财产品 | 中邮理财 3.57% | | 0.43% | 0.70% | | 4 | 丰利甄合1年定期开放1 | 兴银理财 | 3.57% | 0.01% | 0.50% | | | 号固化学生财产品A | | | | | | 5 | 珠联璧合安稳1909一年 宸开公募人民币理财产品 南银理财 3.50% | | | 0.05% | 0.20% | | | B | | | | | | | "安容"固定收益类一年定 | 144 2 2 1 - ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience fluctuations, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) slightly down by 0.04% and the thirty-year government bond futures down by 0.41%. The central bank's "moderate easing" stance has led to uncertainty in interest rates, and despite weak credit expansion, monetary policy is not significantly relaxed, resulting in a complex bond market environment [1] Group 1 - The central bank's gradual shift towards more precise and efficient regulation aims to avoid excessive liquidity, contributing to the bond market's entangled state [1] - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank sets a ceiling for bond yields, while external risks easing prevents the ten-year bond yield from dropping to 1.6%, indicating limited overall volatility [1] - From an asset allocation perspective, bonds are viewed as a hedge against stock market risks, with a recommendation to focus on the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) for balanced stock-bond allocation [1]