Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current primary contradiction in the market is between the strong risk appetite and the weak fundamental performance, leading to an oscillatory trend in treasury bonds. In the short term, there are no clear trend - based trading opportunities in the bond market, and short - term strategies should be adopted. Next week, the bond market will mainly oscillate, with some moments of potential increases, but the timing of long - positions is difficult to grasp, and attention should be paid to the interest rate safety margin [2][15]. - In the near term, the bond market lacks a trending market. The equity market will continue to be strong but will experience fluctuations. Meanwhile, the improvement in the fundamentals is slower than expected, causing the bond market to be insensitive to the rise of the stock market when interest rates adjust to a certain level. There will be short - term long - position opportunities in the market next week [16]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Outlook 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 25th to August 31st, treasury bond futures rebounded slightly. On Monday, after a sharp decline in the bond market, there was a rebound momentum, and the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve boosted the expectation of loose liquidity, resulting in a simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds. On Tuesday, the capital market was balanced, the stock market rose and then fell, and treasury bond futures strengthened, with TL performing particularly strongly. On Wednesday, the stock market rose and then fell, but due to the tightening of the capital market and the uncertainty of the subsequent stock market trend, the bond market's increase was limited. On Thursday, the stock market was weak in the morning, but the bond market sentiment did not improve. In the afternoon, the stock market rose rapidly, and treasury bond futures fell significantly. On Friday, the news was calm, the exchange rate appreciated significantly, the capital market was balanced, and stocks and bonds both rose. As of August 29th, the settlement prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.420, 105.515, 107.820, and 116.560 yuan respectively, up 0.102, 0.145, 0.165, and 0.660 yuan from the previous weekend [14]. 1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market will mainly oscillate next week. It is recommended to establish short - term long - positions on the left side before the stock market fluctuates and when the interest rate is relatively high, and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to short - hedging strategies, the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and stop - profit and wait for the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread [2]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 101 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 502.597 billion yuan and a net financing of - 13.592 billion yuan, down 423.243 billion yuan and 669.452 billion yuan from last week respectively. 81 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 351.597 billion yuan and a net financing of 243.508 billion yuan, down 1.7553 billion yuan and up 3.4708 billion yuan from last week respectively. 280 inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 557.22 billion yuan and a net financing of - 194.56 billion yuan, up 0.911 billion yuan and 5.205 billion yuan from last week respectively [23]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of August 29th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.64%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, down 3.04bp, up 0.39bp, up 6.06bp, and up 6.25bp from the previous weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y widened by 6.18bp, 5.67bp, and 0.19bp respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.54%, 1.77%, and 1.88% respectively, down 3.20bp, up 0.01bp, and up 1.27bp from the previous weekend [27][28]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of August 29th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts were 102.420, 105.515, 107.820, and 116.560 yuan respectively, up 0.102, 0.145, 0.165, and 0.660 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41,387, 79,707, 111,765, and 181,645 lots respectively, down 21,136, 28,327, 35,187, and 47,596 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 83,540, 148,187, 214,900, and 153,379 lots respectively, down 12,037, 23,589, 14,531 lots and up 457 lots from the previous weekend [35][38]. 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - This week, the opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage were not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, the market oscillated weakly, and the basis of futures generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contracts was between 1.4% and 1.8%, and the current NCD rate was between 1.5% and 1.6%, so the opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies were relatively few. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the fluctuation of spot bond yields after the futures market closed, making it difficult to grasp trading opportunities [42]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of August 29th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.072, + 0.140, + 0.235, and + 0.460 yuan respectively, down 0.072, up 0.040, down 0.015, and down 0.080 yuan from the previous weekend. The market sentiment warmed up marginally this week, and the inter - delivery spreads generally oscillated and narrowed. As it is approaching the delivery month, the previously recommended strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can gradually take profit [46]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Due to the maturity of 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, 400 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, the full - scale net withdrawal was 403.9 billion yuan. As of August 29th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.52%, 1.52%, 1.33%, and 1.51% respectively, down 4.42bp, 0.50bp, 8.70bp, and up 4.70bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.07 trillion yuan, 0.06 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 85.46%, slightly lower than last week [50][53][55]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield both oscillated within a narrow range. As of August 29th, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 97.8477 from the previous weekend; the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.23%, down 3bp from the previous weekend; the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 238.7bp. Trump is gradually increasing his influence on the Federal Reserve, and the US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's reciprocal tariff policy is illegal [61]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed a mixed trend. As of August 29th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3614.83, 6394.54, and 1664.76 points respectively, down 16.12, up 29.49, and down 18.61 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also showed a mixed trend. As of August 29th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 19.94, 4.94, and 6.85 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.16, up 0.10, and up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65]. 7. Investment Recommendations - In the near term, the bond market will mainly oscillate. It is recommended to establish short - term long - positions on the left side before the stock market fluctuates and when the interest rate is relatively high, and exit quickly. Also, continue to pay attention to short - hedging strategies, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as long 4TS and short T for the 10Y - 1Y spread at the short - to - medium end). Stop - profit and wait for the strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread [2][18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown resilience in the first half of 2025, with several bond funds outperforming their benchmarks due to effective management strategies in a volatile environment [1][2][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 24, 2025, South China Fund Management Company reported that 12 out of 20 products released their mid-term reports, with all 12 bond funds showing positive net value growth rates [2]. - Notable performers include South China Rui Ze Bond A, which achieved a net value growth rate of 6.15%, surpassing its benchmark by 6.21 percentage points, and South China Rui Li Bond A, which rose by 2.04%, exceeding its benchmark by 2.18 percentage points [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to a tightening of the funding environment and rising interest rates, followed by a stabilization supported by the central bank [2][3]. - Funds have adjusted their investment portfolios flexibly to navigate the complex market conditions, with six bond funds outperforming their benchmarks in the first half of the year [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Some bond funds increased their allocation to short-duration bonds to mitigate risks associated with interest rate volatility, with South China Rui Heng Short-Duration Bond holding 100 million yuan in short-term financing bonds, up from 50.43 million yuan at the end of the previous year [3]. - Fund managers focused on credit analysis have selectively invested in high-quality credit bonds to enhance returns, with South China Rui Yang Pure Bond A and South China Rui Xiang Pure Bond A achieving net value growth rates that exceeded their benchmarks by 0.59 and 0.48 percentage points, respectively [3][4]. Group 4: Outlook for the Second Half - Institutions express a cautiously optimistic view for the bond market in the second half of the year, anticipating a continuation of the current volatile environment but with potential structural opportunities [5][6]. - The overall bond market is expected to remain in a fluctuating state, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and a stable liquidity environment, while concerns about rising funding costs may temper expectations for bond yield declines [5][6].

8月11日，10年期国债活跃券收益率突破1.71%，较前一交易日上行2个基点，债市情绪再度承压。 国债期货全线下跌，30年期国债期货主力合约盘中最大跌幅超0.7%，10年期国债主力合约盘中跌近0.2%。市 场分析人士指出，资金面可能收紧，叠加权益市场持续走高，债市波动有所放大。 10年期国债收益率重返1.71% 在经历了8月初以来持续震荡后，30年期国债、10年期国债、5年期国债等中长期国债收益率今日出现明显上 行走势。 截至发稿，30年期国债、10年期国债、5年期国债等到期收益率均上行超过2个基点，其中，10年期国债收益 率上行至1.71%以上，重返8月初水平，30年期国债收益率则回到了7月底水平。 | | 利率债三级 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1Y | | 7Y 10Y 超长债 2Y 3Y 5Y 5Y | | 国债 | 1.3500 0.50 1.4000 1.00 1.2100 0.50 1.5525 2.50 1.6475 2.00 1.7120 2.10 1.9460 2.50 135 The Sep 1916 The 19 The Sep 211 The Salar 19 ...

Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, rising 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, supported by a low base and uncertainty over August tariffs[3] - July PPI fell 3.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, indicating challenges in price recovery despite rising high-frequency data and PMI[3] - Core CPI rose to 0.8% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend from the previous value, suggesting better-than-expected inflation performance[3] Group 2: Market Trends - The equity market saw a volume contraction with an average transaction amount of 1.6964 trillion yuan, down 113.2 billion yuan from the previous week[3] - The yield curve steepened, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates showing volatility, reflecting a mixed outlook for the bond market[3] - The U.S. stock market rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, S&P 500 up 2.43%, and Nasdaq up 3.87%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.29%[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and External Factors - The People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan in reverse repos, injecting medium to long-term liquidity into the market, contributing to a decline in short-term rates[3] - The probability of a U.S. rate cut in September rose to 87% due to weak employment data and aggressive White House stance, impacting inflation expectations[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, reinforcing expectations of capital inflows from overseas[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the economic data in the first half of this year remained resilient despite tariff disruptions. The July PMI data was lower than expected, with both supply and demand sides declining month - on - month. The export may face pressure in the future. In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and it is expected that the funds will remain loose. In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the continuation of loose funds, the general direction of interest rates is still downward. In the short term, the bond market may return to a volatile pattern. The bond market should be mainly considered for long - term buying at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: The economic data in the first half of this year was resilient under the influence of tariffs. The July PMI data was lower than expected, with both supply and demand sides declining. The new export orders decreased, and the export may face pressure in the future due to the over - drafting of the export rush and the rising base in the second half of the year. Overseas, the Fed's stance at the FOMC meeting was marginally hawkish, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut in the US increased due to lower - than - expected employment data [9][10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [11]. - **Interest Rate**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.69%, down 1.47 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.95%, up 0.40 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, unchanged week - on - week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended trading strategy is to go long on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Price and Premium**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized premiums, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, along with their historical trends [17][20][23][26]. - **Contract Holdings**: The report shows the closing prices and holdings of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [29][31][34][36]. 3.3 Major Economic Data - **Domestic Economy**: - **GDP and PMI**: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also down 0.4 percentage points, both lower than expected [42]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In July, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry declined. The production index decreased seasonally, and new orders returned to the contraction range. The new export orders decreased, and the export may face pressure [43][48]. - **Price Index**: In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI increased by 0.7%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, the core CPI was flat, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% [51]. - **Export**: In July 2025, China's import and export data improved, with exports (in US dollars) increasing by 7.2% year - on - year and imports increasing by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate [54]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [57]. - **Investment and Real Estate**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.8%, the real estate investment growth rate was - 11.2%, the infrastructure investment growth rate was 4.6%, and the manufacturing investment growth rate was 7.5%. The prices of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [60]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In June, the cumulative value of new housing starts decreased by 20.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative value of new housing construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. The completion data decreased year - on - year, and the sales of new houses in 30 large cities weakened [63][66]. - **Foreign Economy**: - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the US GDP was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 2.7%, and the core CPI increased by 2.9%. The durable goods orders in June increased by 10.93% year - on - year. In July, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the June ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8 [69][72][75]. - **EU Economy**: In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [75]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In July, the preliminary value of the Eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.2 [78]. 3.4 Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In June, the M1 growth rate was 4.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%. The social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, mainly from the growth of government bonds. Both corporate and household credit improved [83]. - **Social Financing Sub - items**: In June, the growth rate of government bonds in social financing continued to rebound, and the financing of the real sector improved. The social financing growth rate of households and enterprises was 6.06%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 21.30% [86]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In July, the MLF balance was 525 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [89]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The report provides the latest interest rates and their daily, weekly, and monthly changes for various types of bonds and repurchase rates, including domestic and US Treasury bonds [92]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The report shows the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of UK, French, German, and Italian Treasury bonds [96][99]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB [100].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation for the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July indicated a "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and there are uncertainties in tariffs and potential post - export slumps. Short - term, the bond market is suppressed by export, economic fundamentals, commodity recovery, and rising risk appetite, but is supported by the expected loose funds in August. It may enter a volatile phase, and attention should be paid to economic data, anti - involution measures, and the actual implementation of exemption extensions on August 12 [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Due to better - than - expected export data and the rebound of the A - share market, treasury bond futures rose in the morning and then fell back in the afternoon, with all varieties closing slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate on Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, with the long - end yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.6875%, down 0.95bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose, and funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. There were 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan. The short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable with a slight increase [10] 2. Industry News - **Trade Data**: In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.8%. The trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan. The total trade value with the US was 2.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [13] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: In July, the central bank's various tools achieved a net investment of 236.5 billion yuan, 419.5 billion yuan less than the previous month. Analysts believe that the central bank has switched its primary goal to promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and stabilizing growth, and quasi - fiscal tools may be the core link for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 7, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and changes in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report provides data on the term structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the weighted interest rate changes of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [35]

Group 1 - The overall average return of pure bond funds since July is -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [1][3] - There has been a significant redemption phenomenon in bond funds, with nearly 40 bond funds announcing large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May respectively [3] - Industry analysts suggest that factors such as "anti-involution" improving deflation expectations, easing of China-US tariff tensions, and the stock-bond seesaw effect are likely to continue to suppress the bond market in the short term [3] Group 2 - The high congestion in the bond market may lead to continued preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products, potentially disrupting the market [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, but there are opportunities for phase recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showed different performances, with the overall market - value style in A - shares being dominant, and the bond market slightly recovered in June after fluctuations from April to May. REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market [4]. - Most fund managers expect the economy to continue a weak recovery in Q3 2025, with monetary policy remaining loose but limited room for interest - rate decline. Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 固收型公募基金2025Q2季报数据解读 Performance - In Q2 2025, in the context of weak economic recovery, gradually restored equity sentiment, and intensified long - short game and fluctuations in the bond market, REITs and convertible bond funds led the performance, and "fixed - income +" funds performed well driven by the equity market. Pure - bond fund net values generally recovered [4]. - The top - performing funds in terms of Q2 2025 compounded unit net - value growth rate (%) were REITs funds (8.07%), convertible bond funds (3.49%), and QDII bond - type funds (1.38) [5]. Scale - By the end of Q2 2025, passive index - type bond funds received significant capital inflows and had the fastest scale growth [8]. Leverage - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the overall fund leverage showed an upward trend [11]. Duration - As of June 30, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the fitted durations of pure - bond funds all showed an upward trend [14]. Weighted Position Changes of Fixed - Income + Funds - By the end of Q2 2025, the convertible - bond positions of different types of fixed - income + funds were basically the same as in the previous quarter, while the stock positions all showed a downward trend [17]. - The top five industries for stock increase were non - bank finance, banking, communications, electronics, and medicine; the top five industries for stock reduction were food and beverage, automobiles, coal, basic chemicals, and home appliances [28]. Individual Stock Positions of Fixed - Income + Funds - The top ten stocks with the highest market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Zijin Mining, Tencent Holdings, Yangtze Power, Contemporary Amperex Technology, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Alibaba - W, SF Holdings, and Haier Smart Home [30]. - The top ten stocks with the largest increase in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were New H3C Technologies, Inphi Corporation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Bank of Hangzhou, China Minsheng Bank, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Zhaojin Mining Industry, China Merchants Bank, Zhongjin Gold, and SF Holdings [32]. - The top ten stocks with the largest decrease in market value of holdings in Q2 2025 were Wuliangye, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, Wanhua Chemical, Zijin Mining, Honglu Steel Structure, Hunan Gold, BYD, Shunxin Agriculture, and Luzhou Laojiao [34]. 3.2 固收型重点基金2025Q2后市展望观点汇总 Key Short - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most short - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile market with high winning probability but low odds, and the bond - market trend is mainly determined by the liability side and policy orientation [39]. - Strategies focus on coupon income from medium - short - duration, medium - high - grade urban investment bonds and financial bonds, and the overall tone is prudent and flexible [40]. Key Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Managers' Views - Most medium - and long - term bond fund managers expect the bond market to continue the volatile pattern, with loose monetary policy continuing to support the bond market, while domestic demand is weak and the real - estate market is weakening marginally [41]. - Some managers suggest actively participating in interest - rate bond band trading, while others believe that the space for credit - spread compression is limited. Most still focus on medium - high - grade credit bonds [41]. Equity - Linked Fixed - Income Fund Managers' Views - For stock assets, most managers are relatively optimistic about the medium - term market outlook. Low - equity - position fixed - income + fund managers are relatively conservative, while some medium - and high - equity - position managers will increase the exploration and allocation in industries with relatively guaranteed short - and medium - term supply - demand environments and reasonable valuations [42]. - For convertible - bond assets, the supply - demand balance in the convertible - bond market remains tight, with overall high valuations and potential increased volatility, but there are still structural opportunities. Some managers will maintain a neutral - to - low position and shift to equity - oriented and balanced varieties [42]. - For pure - bond assets, managers generally maintain a neutral view, expecting the central - bank policy to remain consistent, the capital market to remain loose, and limited upward space for interest rates [42]. Key High - Position Convertible - Bond Enhanced Fund Managers' Views - Managers will maintain a relatively positive position, seize structural opportunities, and pay attention to the layout opportunities in technology self - controllability and the allocation opportunities after the sentiment of new consumption and innovative drugs cools down [45]. - They believe that the convertible - bond market has a relatively high valuation, with short - term cost - effectiveness and fault - tolerance rate reduced, but there are still structural opportunities, especially in equity - oriented convertible bonds [45]. QDII Bond - Fund Managers' Views - The global market in Q2 2025 was still dominated by policy. The impact of Trump's tariff policy continued to push up inflation expectations, and there were differences in the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut [46]. - In the future, although the probability of a US recession is relatively low, attention should be paid to the recurrence of tariff policies, and the US bond market may fluctuate bidirectionally in the short term [46][47]. REITs Fund Managers' Views - In Q2 2025, the performance of different types of REITs varied. The performance of rental - protection REITs was stable, the industrial - park REITs were under pressure, the consumer - infrastructure REITs performed steadily, the transportation REITs showed growth driven by traffic flow, the warehousing - logistics REITs were under pressure in terms of revenue, and the energy and environmental - protection REITs showed different performances [50][51][52].