Group 1 - The Supreme Court is set to make a ruling on the legality of the 301 tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which could significantly impact the USD index, potentially dropping it from 99.80 to around 98.00 if the tariffs are deemed invalid, or pushing it towards 100.50 if upheld [3] - The investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation costs has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, with the ECB and BoE issuing a rare joint statement emphasizing the need for central banks to remain free from political interference [4] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with the USD index testing 99.80 but struggling to maintain stability, while gold prices have reached $4620 per ounce [6] Group 2 - If the Supreme Court ruling favors Trump, tariff policies may extend to sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, potentially damaging global trade sentiment; conversely, if tariffs are rejected, the crisis of Fed independence could still undermine confidence in the USD [6] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, allocating one-third each to gold, safe-haven currencies, and USD assets to mitigate risks associated with single asset exposure [7] - The dual pressures from the judicial investigation and tariff ruling are seen as a stress test for the Fed's authority, with market sentiment likely fluctuating between political confrontation and monetary policy considerations in the coming weeks [9]

Group 1 - Trump expressed concerns about a potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, warning that it could lead to hundreds of billions in compensation, potentially depleting the U.S. economy [1][3] - The Federal Reserve, represented by John Williams, indicated a strong economic outlook for the U.S. through 2026, suggesting no reason for interest rate cuts [3][5] - A bipartisan group of Republican senators is blocking Trump's nomination for the next Federal Reserve chair, urging him to cease legal investigations against Powell [5] Group 2 - China and the EU reached an agreement on electric vehicle negotiations, indicating a shift towards cooperation in trade, possibly due to Trump's actions creating insecurity among European nations [5] - Timothy Geithner, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, visited Beijing to promote U.S.-China economic cooperation, signaling a potential Democratic counter to Trump's policies [5] - Internal dissent against Trump is growing, with Democrats preparing to leverage the situation for the midterm elections, potentially leading to impeachment efforts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release a significant ruling regarding tariffs, which has sparked speculation in the market about its potential implications for the economy and stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Court Ruling Expectations - The market had anticipated a ruling on tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) but was informed that a decision would not be made on January 9 [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the Supreme Court delays its decision until late February, it may indicate a shift in the court's stance, potentially favoring the Trump administration [3][6]. - The longer the ruling is delayed, the lower the likelihood of a ruling against the government, as the timing and financial implications become more critical [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - There are mixed opinions among market strategists regarding the impact of the potential ruling on the stock market; some believe it could create uncertainty and pressure the market, while others think it could stimulate economic growth [4][11]. - If the court rules against the tariffs and mandates refunds, it could significantly impact U.S. finances, with Trump warning of potential liabilities amounting to "hundreds of billions" [5][20]. Group 3: Legal and Financial Considerations - Analysts note that the Supreme Court's decision on whether to require refunds for tariffs will be crucial, as it affects the bond market and the stability of U.S. sovereign debt ratings [13][12]. - Current betting markets indicate a low probability of Trump winning the case, with estimates around 28-32% [15][16]. - Despite predictions of a likely loss for Trump, there is an expectation that the government may find alternative legal grounds to maintain tariffs on certain industries [17][18].

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is at a turning point, with gold expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2] - Key drivers of this bullish trend include heightened geopolitical risks, supply shortages in the physical market, and renewed doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which have collectively increased the premium on safe-haven assets [1][2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to the tightening conditions in the physical market, supported by the uncertainty surrounding the "Section 232" tariff rulings on critical minerals [3] Group 2 - Basic metals may gradually replace precious metals as the main players in the commodity market cycle, with aluminum and copper expected to show resilience in the second half of 2026 due to strong industrial demand [2][3] - Tactical selling may occur due to policy fluctuations, but each dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity within the overall bullish trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metal prices rebounded strongly. Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets increased, with silver showing a more significant increase. Trump's policies have impacted the US dollar's credit, making international gold prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing and tariff rulings may have short - term negative impacts on silver prices, but in the medium - term, silver prices still have upward drivers. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are 970 - 1050 yuan/gram and 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram respectively [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, precious metal prices had a strong - leaning rebound. SHFE gold rose 2.96% to 1006.48 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 9.70% to 18731.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 4.07% to 4518.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 10.41% to 79.79 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 [11]. - **Gold Price Driver**: Trump's multi - dimensional policies have further impacted the US dollar's credit, driving the strong performance of gold prices. The total holdings of major overseas gold ETFs increased from 2352.2 tons on January 2nd to 2355.2 tons on January 9th. International gold prices are generally expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver Price Analysis**: The volatility of silver prices has significantly increased. The 2026 BCOM index rebalancing will be gradually adjusted in batches starting from January 8th and completed around January 15th. The potential reduction of long positions in silver by commodity funds or ETFs tracking the BCOM index and the possible outflow of silver spot from the US if the silver tariff is exempted are short - term negative factors for silver prices. However, in the medium - term, the large holdings of silver ETFs and the expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical graph of SHFE gold shows a trend of upward breakthrough at the end of the triangular convergence, and further price increases are expected. The technical graph of SHFE silver is extremely strong, having entered the accelerated upward phase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 20000 yuan/kilogram above. If it is effectively broken, the upward trend can continue [13][15]. 2. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: This week, domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The total positions of SHFE gold increased by 1.87% to 31.86 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.3% to 48.81 million lots as of the latest reporting period. The total positions of SHFE silver increased by 6.19% to 67.79 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.64% to 15.32 million lots as of the latest reporting period. As of the latest reporting period on January 6th, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds decreased by 2827 lots to 123,200 lots, and the net positions of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1814 lots to 15,822 lots [28][30][34][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2355.2 tons as of January 9th, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 29294.9 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield**: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50][51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - **Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet**: The weekly changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities. The total assets decreased by 670.16 billion US dollars [55]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In November, the year - on - year CPI in the US was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% in September. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected previous value of 3.0% in September [62]. - **Employment Situation**: As of the week ending on January 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [65]. - **PMI and PPI**: In December, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [68]. - **New Housing Data**: In October, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.246 million, lower than the expected 1.325 million and the previous value of 1.291 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.412 million, higher than the expected 1.35 million [71]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74]. - **Silver Basis**: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver are shown [80]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][90][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: It presents the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [92][94].

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on former President Trump's use of emergency tariff powers, which could significantly impact financial markets if the tariffs are overturned [1] - Analysts suggest that if tariffs are revoked, it may lead to increased government revenue, higher U.S. Treasury yields, and renewed volatility in the stock market [1][3] - The likelihood of the court maintaining the tariffs is currently estimated at 30% according to online prediction markets [1] Group 2 - If the court rules against the tariffs, it could boost profits for companies facing high import costs, with potential refunds to importers estimated between $150 billion to $200 billion [2] - Sectors such as retail, consumer goods, and electronics are expected to benefit from a potential stock market rebound if tariffs are lifted [2] - Some investors are reallocating funds towards small-cap stocks, anticipating that Federal Reserve actions will suppress 10-year Treasury yields and inject liquidity into the economy [2] Group 3 - A reduction in tariffs and subsequent government revenue loss may pressure U.S. Treasuries, leading to higher yields that could negatively affect the stock market [3] - The possibility of a refund ruling could prompt the Treasury to issue more U.S. debt [4] - Morgan Stanley estimates that annual tariff revenue could decline from approximately $350 billion to $250 billion, raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook [5]

Group 1 - The core investment themes identified by Goldman Sachs for 2026 include a shift in AI infrastructure investment towards data centers and power suppliers [1] - Pharmaceutical research is transitioning from weight loss drugs to cardiovascular treatments, indicating a change in focus within the healthcare sector [1] - China's economic growth is expected to exceed market expectations, driven primarily by technological advancements and exports [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainties, such as Federal Reserve policies and tariff decisions, are anticipated to dominate the market in the first half of the year [1]

Group 1 - Lawyers perceive a minimal likelihood that the ruling may be issued within this week [1]