Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the need to address "involution" in competition, particularly in the photovoltaic industry, to promote product quality and orderly market competition [1][3]. Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to supply-demand mismatches and chaotic low-price competition, which threatens long-term development [2]. - Some companies are resorting to low-cost sales strategies, which compromise product quality and safety, leading to potential risks in photovoltaic power stations [2]. Policy Initiatives - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference has identified the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition as a key focus for 2025, reflecting a commitment to improving market order [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement targeted measures to address structural contradictions in key industries, promoting healthy development and quality upgrades [2]. Technological Innovation - To overcome "involution," the photovoltaic industry needs to combine price regulation, capacity control, and quality enhancement, gradually phasing out outdated production capacity [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set higher industry standards to accelerate upgrades and eliminate outdated capacity [5]. Company Developments - Leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain are actively reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness through technological advancements. For instance, GCL-Poly's average production cash cost for granular silicon was approximately 27.07 yuan/kg in Q1 2023, down from 33.18 yuan/kg in Q3 2022 [6]. - Longi Green Energy announced significant technological breakthroughs, achieving a record conversion efficiency of 33% for its large-area silicon-perovskite tandem solar cells and over 26% for its BC cell modules [6]. Investment in R&D - Longi Green Energy's R&D investment for 2024 is projected to be around 5 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and technology development [7]. - The ongoing efforts to eliminate excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry are seen as an opportunity for companies to enhance their competitiveness and transition towards a technology-driven growth model [7].

Group 1 - The central government has set the tone for eliminating backward production capacity, leading to a significant increase in commodity prices, with polysilicon contracts hitting the limit up and rising nearly 7% [1] - Polysilicon has formed a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, attracting macro funds for increased allocation [1][7] - The main contract for polysilicon has surged, breaking through the 35,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative rebound of over 14% from the bottom [3] Group 2 - Recent price increases in polysilicon are attributed to three main factors: 1. Growing expectations for policy changes aimed at clearing out "involution" competition, with references to the 2015 supply-side reform [5] 2. A significant price drop of about 20% from approximately 38,500 yuan/ton to around 30,400 yuan/ton, leading to a price correction as it fell below some manufacturers' production costs [6] 3. Rising industrial silicon prices, which support the production costs of polysilicon [7] Group 3 - The glass industry has seen a price increase of over 6%, with the main contract currently around 1,048 yuan/ton, as major photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10] - This reduction is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic photovoltaic glass supply, improving the supply-demand imbalance in the industry [10] - The photovoltaic industry is a key focus for the government's efforts to address "involution" competition, with clear policy directions anticipated to improve the overall industry profitability by 2025 [10]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding them to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The photovoltaic futures market saw significant increases, with polysilicon futures rising over 5% to 34,490 yuan/ton and industrial silicon futures up 3.32% to 8,090 yuan/ton [1] - Major domestic photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, with expected output dropping to around 45GW, positively impacting upstream prices and individual stocks in the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic sector and steel sector showed strong performance in the A-share market, with the photovoltaic ETF fund rising by 1.80% and the related photovoltaic industry index increasing by 1.79% [2] - Key stocks in the photovoltaic sector experienced notable gains, including Tongwei Co. up 6.80%, Longi Green Energy up 3.03%, and Daqo New Energy up 9.40% [2] - The ongoing supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is expected to strengthen, with targeted measures for both new and existing production capacity, as the industry has been under self-regulation for over a year with limited results [2]

Group 1 - The construction of a national unified market is essential for enhancing China's comparative advantages and scale effects, thereby increasing economic growth potential [1][2] - The new development pattern emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, which involves smooth supply-demand cycles and the establishment of a unified market to boost demand and improve supply quality and resilience of industrial and supply chains [2][3] Group 2 - The Central Economic Committee has made specific deployments focusing on six key areas, including regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has established guidelines to create a set of universal action rules and behavior norms for the unified market, clarifying the boundaries of power and the "bottom line" for various regions and departments [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profit margins, with projections indicating a drop to 4.3% in 2024 and further to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, which is below the manufacturing average [5] - The ongoing price wars and "involution" competition in the automotive sector are leading to decreased efficiency across the supply chain, which could undermine research and development capabilities and raise quality concerns [7][8] Group 4 - Multiple departments are intensifying efforts to address "involution" competition, aiming to foster effective competition, technological innovation, and market expansion [9][10] - The NDRC is committed to addressing structural issues in key industries through targeted policies and measures, promoting healthy development and quality upgrades [10][11] Group 5 - The ongoing special actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement are crucial for optimizing the business environment and stabilizing market expectations, which will help private enterprises to develop confidently [11][12] - The special actions have already identified over 6,200 issues and recovered significant amounts for affected enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to improving regulatory practices [12][13]

第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻，点击「听新闻」，一键收听。 【今日推荐】 美宣布提高钢铝关税至50% 欧盟：深表遗憾 将继续谈判 当地时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表遗憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确 定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快谈判进程，本周将举行会谈。欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇将于6月4日在法国巴黎会见美国贸易代表格里尔。 英国宣称要建12艘核潜艇 英国首相斯塔默2日发布英国《战略防务评估》，宣布将投资150亿英镑（约合203亿美元）用于保障未来数十年的核威慑力量，并打造12艘新的攻击型核潜 艇。斯塔默声称，英国必须"为战争做好准备"，来自俄罗斯的威胁"不容忽视"。 马斯克最新发声：不想为美政府所做的一切承担责任 当地时间6月1日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克当日在接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司的采访时表示，他不想公开反对美国政府，但也不想为政府所做的一切承担责 任。马斯克在采访中表示，他所领导的"政府效率部"成了一切的替罪羊，所有的裁员无论是真是假都被怪罪到了"政府效率部"的头上。 【观国内】 应急管理部调度指导西藏丁青县山体滑坡抢险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is abundant, the inventory of clean coal continues to increase, the optimistic sentiment from tariff agreements has faded, and coal prices have fallen again. The main contradiction in the next 2 - 3 quarters is that the off - season expectations still dominate the weak reality. - Macro - wise, market sentiment has improved slightly, and the market is mainly driven by the rigid demand for coal replenishment. The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate weakly. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review** - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons. - The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants was 52,790 tons, a decrease of 30 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1.84753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,790 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 15 yuan/ton. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points. - The molten iron output at the demand side declined from a high level. The daily average molten iron output was 243,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,170 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,800 tons. [7] - **Market Outlook** - **Macro - aspect**: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; residential investment was 211.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The total foreign direct investment of the whole industry in China from January to April was 57.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. - **Overseas aspect**: On May 20, China and the ten ASEAN countries completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version. The 30 - year US Treasury yield soared to 5.1%, approaching a 20 - year high. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Supply is abundant, the inventory of clean coal continues to increase, and coal prices have fallen again. The off - season expectations in the 2 - 3 quarters still dominate the weak reality. - **Technical aspect**: The weekly K - line of the main coking coal contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. - **Strategy recommendation**: The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate weakly. [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - As of May 23, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts was 602,400 lots, a week - on - week increase of 96,100 lots. - As of May 23, the spread between coking coal contracts 1 - 9 was 19.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton. - As of May 23, the registered warehouse receipts of coking coal were 3,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 100 lots. - As of May 23, the spread between the main contracts of coke and coking coal was 581.50, a week - on - week decrease of 11.50 points. [14][20] - **Spot Market** - As of May 22, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. - As of May 23, the basis of coking coal was 262.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton. [26] 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Upstream** - From January to April, the national raw coal output was 1.585 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 108.95 million tons and a growth of 6.6%. In April 2025, the national raw coal output was 389 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 3.8%, with the growth rate slowing down by 5.8 percentage points compared with March. - In April 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year growth of 8.23%. - In 2024, China's imported coal was 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, hitting a record high, including 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62%. From January to April 2025, the total imported coking coal in China was 3.64089 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. [53][57] - **Mid - stream** - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.936 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons. - The starting rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the daily average output was 52,790 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the raw coal inventory was 316,480 tons, an increase of 10,970 tons; the clean coal inventory was 214,740 tons, an increase of 11,480 tons. - The daily average coke output of independent coking enterprises was 67,300 tons, an increase of 150 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1.84753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,790 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 535,490 tons, a decrease of 9,980 tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 276,680 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons. - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 865,730 tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons; the available days of coking coal were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.24 days. [30][34][37] - **Downstream** - The daily average molten iron output was 243,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,170 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,800 tons. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points. - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%; the daily average coke output was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 40 tons. - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 15 yuan/ton. [43][49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On May 21, the SM2509 contract closed at 5792, down 0.03%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5600. The supply side has production losses and low enthusiasm for spot production. The inventory of imported manganese ore at ports has increased, and the overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream hot metal production shows signs of peaking and falling. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On May 21, the SF2507 contract closed at 5620, down 0.85%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5510. The ferroalloy production profit is currently negative. The cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The overall demand for steel is still weak. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5792 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5620 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings: 582,287 hands, down 9395 hands; SF futures contract holdings: 444,903 hands, down 3619 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net positions: - 32,888 hands, up 3875 hands; Ferrosilicon top 20 net positions: - 30,956 hands, down 202 hands [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 56 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 115,203 sheets, down 1846 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 19,519 sheets, down 120 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5560 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5646 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 110 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 192 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block, Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4180,000 tons, up 232,000 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 33.60%, down 3.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 31.22%, down 1.31% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 162,750 tons, down 9275 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 93,500 tons, down 9400 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory: 207,100 tons, up 25,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 73,700 tons, down 9900 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 125,632 tons, down 229 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 20,361.5 tons, up 25.2 tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84.13%, down 0.51%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 91.74%, down 0.37% [2]. - Crude steel production: 86,019,000 tons, down 6,822,400 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - In April 2025, China's raw coal production was 389,306,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the cumulative production from January to April was 1,584,738,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year production of raw coal in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 16.6%, 0.6%, and 3.5% respectively [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will accelerate the construction of new urban infrastructure, use information and digital means to improve the intelligence level of infrastructure, and continue to carry out the construction of complete communities [2]. - On May 20, three pilot residential land parcels for "good houses" were transacted, all located in the core area of the main city, with a premium rate exceeding 25% and a total transaction amount of about 4.249 billion yuan [2]. - The north and south blocks of the Simandou Iron Ore Project are expected to achieve an annual output of 30 million tons each in 2025, with a total of 60 million tons. It is expected that by 2026, the output will double to 60 million tons each, with a total output of 120 million tons [2].

Group 1: Implementation of Policies for Private Economy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has officially implemented the Private Economy Promotion Law, marking a significant milestone in the development of the private economy in China [1] - NDRC has planned 53 policy measures across 7 areas to support the law's implementation, including actions to improve the social credit system and eliminate market access barriers [1] - NDRC aims to address concerns of private enterprises by utilizing new local government special bonds and enhancing transparency in enterprise-related fees [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Stability - NDRC is accelerating the rollout of employment stabilization and economic growth policies, with most measures expected to be implemented by the end of June [2] - The commission emphasizes the need for ongoing policy research and reserves to ensure timely responses to economic needs [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Urban Development - NDRC plans to finalize the list of this year's "two heavy" construction projects by the end of June, focusing on high standards for implementation [3] - A special central budget for urban renewal projects will be established, supporting various infrastructure improvements, including the renovation of old residential areas [8] Group 4: Foreign Investment Encouragement - The revised foreign investment encouragement directory will prominently feature high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors, reflecting the government's focus on these areas [4] Group 5: Addressing Market Competition Issues - NDRC acknowledges that "involution" in competition distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition, necessitating corrective measures [5] - The commission proposes targeted strategies to address structural contradictions in key industries, promoting innovation and optimizing industrial layouts [7] Group 6: Credit and Contract Enforcement - NDRC is working to enhance the government’s integrity in contract enforcement and improve standards for recognizing government debt and penalties for dishonesty [10][11] - The commission aims to streamline the credit repair process and ensure timely removal from dishonesty lists for compliant entities [11] Group 7: Low-altitude Economy Development - NDRC is focused on safely expanding low-altitude economic applications while addressing safety risks associated with low-altitude flying [12][13] - The commission emphasizes the importance of regulatory compliance and safety governance in the development of low-altitude tourism and related activities [12] Group 8: Equipment Renewal and Consumer Support - NDRC plans to expedite the funding for consumer goods replacement programs and implement loan interest subsidies for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [14][15]

一、【早盘盘面回顾】 智通财经5月20日讯，市场早盘震荡反弹，创业板指领涨。大小指数走势继续分化，北证50指数涨1.37%创历史新高。沪深两市半日成交额7267亿，较上个 交易日放量191亿。盘面上热点集中在消费和医药方向，个股涨多跌少，全市场3600只个股上涨。从板块来看，大消费股再度走强，宠物经济、美容护理、 IP经济等方向大涨，贝因美等多股涨停。创新药概念股震荡走高，一品红等涨停。下跌方面，高位股集体大跌，尤夫股份等多股跌停。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.38%，深成指涨0.79%，创业板指涨1.04%。 个股来看，今日早盘涨停数量为59家（不包括ST及未开板新股），封板率为81%，连板股数量为24家。郑中设计、丽人丽妆4连板，天汽模、万安科技、王 子新材、路畅科技、百利电气3连板。 板块上，新消费方向再迎全线爆发，宠物经济领涨两市，可靠股份、天元宠物、创源股份、依依股份、大千生态、实丰文化等个股涨停，驱动力、佩蒂股 份、回盛生物、瑞普生物涨超10%。 | 偏苦船份 2070 11556% 20070 115 | 23 717 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票池 未上市公司 2 只看最正 ...