Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to rectify "involutionary" competition within the industry, which is expected to lead to an improved competitive landscape [2] - Strong demand for travel during the summer season has resulted in high passenger load factors, with a cumulative passenger throughput of 99.864 million from July 1 to July 22, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - The report indicates a strong certainty of supply contraction due to delays in aircraft deliveries caused by supply chain disruptions, with net growth rates for major airlines remaining below 3% [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability, with aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 10.0% and 17.0% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024 [2] - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of seat revenue due to improving supply-demand dynamics, suggesting a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2] Summary by Sections - **Industry Competition**: The Civil Aviation Administration of China is leading efforts to optimize route networks and reduce irrational competition, which is expected to improve the industry's structure [2] - **Passenger Demand**: The summer travel season has shown robust demand, with domestic flight load factors reaching 84.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - **Supply Constraints**: Major airlines are experiencing limited fleet growth, with net growth rates for several airlines being below 3%, and operational capacity is expected to remain tight [2] - **Oil Price Trends**: The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased significantly, contributing to potential profit increases for airlines [2] - **Profitability Outlook**: The report anticipates that improving seat revenue will lead to greater profitability for airlines, with a recommendation to focus on key players in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to supply-demand mismatches leading to price declines, with most companies in the industry chain reporting losses [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Among 30 listed photovoltaic companies that have released half-year performance forecasts, only 8 expect positive net profits after deducting non-recurring items, with just 2 companies showing year-on-year growth [1]. - The main characteristics observed in the disclosed performance forecasts include widespread losses across the main industry chain (silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules), slightly better performance in auxiliary materials, and a divergence in performance where leading companies with technological and management advantages are starting to see improvements [1][2]. Group 2: Company Innovations and Strategies - Companies that have reduced losses are primarily those focusing on technology, gradually driving performance recovery [2]. - Longi Green Energy's losses are expected to narrow year-on-year, benefiting from a dual focus on technological premium and market scale, particularly through its Back Contact (BC) components [2]. - Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy's losses are also decreasing, attributed to the growing market recognition of its All Back Contact (ABC) components, which have high power, safety, and aesthetic advantages [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Recovery - Recent data indicates a rebound in prices across the photovoltaic industry chain, with silicon materials, wafers, and cell prices all increasing, particularly a 15% rise in wafer prices [5][6]. - The recovery in silicon material prices is expected to benefit vertically integrated companies, aiding in profit recovery [6]. - The industry is urged to shift from low-price competition to value competition focused on technological innovation and quality improvement to achieve high-quality development [6][7].

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by consumption policies, investment from special bonds, and export resilience[10] - Nominal GDP growth was 4.3%, 1 percentage point lower than the actual growth, indicating a disparity in economic perception[2] - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with direct exports to the US declining by 16.1%, but the drop was less severe than in May[16] Consumption and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth fell from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, with significant drops in restaurant income from 5.9% to 0.9%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate investment down by 12.9% in June[4] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed, reflecting a need for capacity reduction amid insufficient effective demand[23] Policy Recommendations - A "dual 5" target is suggested, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth to reach around 5%[12] - Emphasis on adjusting macroeconomic policies to prioritize nominal GDP growth and address employment and price stability[12] - Recommendations include expanding fiscal spending, supporting affected industries, and enhancing consumer incentives to stimulate demand[27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight increase in futures, but overall demand remains weak and inventory depletion is slow [3] Pricing - As of July 8, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 12,700 yuan/ton, and in Foshan is 12,650 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The nickel iron price is reported at 910-920 yuan/nickel (including tax), with significant pressure on profits for steel mills [3] Raw Materials - Philippine 1.3% nickel ore is trading at FOB 36-37, with shipping efficiency hindered by rainy weather [1] - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to decrease by 0.5-0.8 USD, with domestic premiums expected to drop by 2 USD to +24-25 [1] Supply - In July, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.2531 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.67% [1] - The output for the 300 series is estimated at 1.7133 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% but a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] Inventory - As of July 4, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 507,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25,200 tons [2] - On July 8, stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 111,410 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 546 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The overall demand in the market is weak, with manufacturing orders recovering slowly due to continuous rainy and high-temperature weather [3] - The psychological price gap between supply and demand continues to widen, with steel mills increasing pressure on raw material prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the coke主力合约 was reported at 1,424.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.14%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. The policy may have limited direct impact on coke. It is recommended to adopt a shock approach and monitor coking coal production and policy dynamics [5][33]. - On July 8, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the recent futures increase is driven by news. It is expected that the coking coal主力合约 will remain volatile [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be transformed from primary fuels to high - value products. Wind, solar, and hydrogen energy should be developed to build a new energy system [8]. - On July 8, in an auction of coking coal by a major coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, the starting price of high - ash, low - sulfur fat coal was 760 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was 790 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the July 1 transaction price [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class Flat - Bed)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Outbound)| 1,210 yuan/ton | 3.42% | 4.31% | - 25.31% | - 39.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal)| 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.83% | 0.83% | - 18.12% | - 41.63% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced)| 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,424.5 | 0.14% | 1,437.0 | 1,410.0 | 16,389 | - 3,553 | 48,080 | - 18 | | Coking Coal | - | 843.5 | 0.84% | 849.5 | 829.0 | 723,095 | - 146,234 | 544,987 | - 4,404 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - For coke, the market is a mix of strong expectations and weak reality. The futures are in a low - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to approach it with a shock mindset and pay attention to coking coal production and policy [5][33]. - For coking coal, the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the futures increase is news - driven. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the coking coal主力合约 is expected to remain volatile [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the lack of significant improvement at the industrial level, the short - term market may continue to be bullish under the anti - involution macro - expectations, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3072, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201, up 0.25%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12730, up 0.539%. The night - session closed lower [1] Important News - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes creating a fair - competition market environment. Trump announced that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, likely to take effect on August 1st, with rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil generally rose with average trading volume. After reaching new highs, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. Recently, blast - furnace overhauls have increased, and there are emission - reduction and production - restriction measures in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, having little impact on overall production. Steel inventories decreased slightly last week, and demand shows off - season characteristics [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The resistance level of the main rebar contract has moved up to 3130, with an important support level at 3000. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3026, and the resistance level is 3282. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the need to address "involution" in competition, particularly in the photovoltaic industry, to promote product quality and orderly market competition [1][3]. Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to supply-demand mismatches and chaotic low-price competition, which threatens long-term development [2]. - Some companies are resorting to low-cost sales strategies, which compromise product quality and safety, leading to potential risks in photovoltaic power stations [2]. Policy Initiatives - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference has identified the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition as a key focus for 2025, reflecting a commitment to improving market order [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement targeted measures to address structural contradictions in key industries, promoting healthy development and quality upgrades [2]. Technological Innovation - To overcome "involution," the photovoltaic industry needs to combine price regulation, capacity control, and quality enhancement, gradually phasing out outdated production capacity [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set higher industry standards to accelerate upgrades and eliminate outdated capacity [5]. Company Developments - Leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain are actively reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness through technological advancements. For instance, GCL-Poly's average production cash cost for granular silicon was approximately 27.07 yuan/kg in Q1 2023, down from 33.18 yuan/kg in Q3 2022 [6]. - Longi Green Energy announced significant technological breakthroughs, achieving a record conversion efficiency of 33% for its large-area silicon-perovskite tandem solar cells and over 26% for its BC cell modules [6]. Investment in R&D - Longi Green Energy's R&D investment for 2024 is projected to be around 5 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and technology development [7]. - The ongoing efforts to eliminate excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry are seen as an opportunity for companies to enhance their competitiveness and transition towards a technology-driven growth model [7].

Group 1 - The central government has set the tone for eliminating backward production capacity, leading to a significant increase in commodity prices, with polysilicon contracts hitting the limit up and rising nearly 7% [1] - Polysilicon has formed a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, attracting macro funds for increased allocation [1][7] - The main contract for polysilicon has surged, breaking through the 35,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative rebound of over 14% from the bottom [3] Group 2 - Recent price increases in polysilicon are attributed to three main factors: 1. Growing expectations for policy changes aimed at clearing out "involution" competition, with references to the 2015 supply-side reform [5] 2. A significant price drop of about 20% from approximately 38,500 yuan/ton to around 30,400 yuan/ton, leading to a price correction as it fell below some manufacturers' production costs [6] 3. Rising industrial silicon prices, which support the production costs of polysilicon [7] Group 3 - The glass industry has seen a price increase of over 6%, with the main contract currently around 1,048 yuan/ton, as major photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10] - This reduction is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic photovoltaic glass supply, improving the supply-demand imbalance in the industry [10] - The photovoltaic industry is a key focus for the government's efforts to address "involution" competition, with clear policy directions anticipated to improve the overall industry profitability by 2025 [10]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding them to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The photovoltaic futures market saw significant increases, with polysilicon futures rising over 5% to 34,490 yuan/ton and industrial silicon futures up 3.32% to 8,090 yuan/ton [1] - Major domestic photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, with expected output dropping to around 45GW, positively impacting upstream prices and individual stocks in the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic sector and steel sector showed strong performance in the A-share market, with the photovoltaic ETF fund rising by 1.80% and the related photovoltaic industry index increasing by 1.79% [2] - Key stocks in the photovoltaic sector experienced notable gains, including Tongwei Co. up 6.80%, Longi Green Energy up 3.03%, and Daqo New Energy up 9.40% [2] - The ongoing supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is expected to strengthen, with targeted measures for both new and existing production capacity, as the industry has been under self-regulation for over a year with limited results [2]

Group 1 - The construction of a national unified market is essential for enhancing China's comparative advantages and scale effects, thereby increasing economic growth potential [1][2] - The new development pattern emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, which involves smooth supply-demand cycles and the establishment of a unified market to boost demand and improve supply quality and resilience of industrial and supply chains [2][3] Group 2 - The Central Economic Committee has made specific deployments focusing on six key areas, including regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has established guidelines to create a set of universal action rules and behavior norms for the unified market, clarifying the boundaries of power and the "bottom line" for various regions and departments [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profit margins, with projections indicating a drop to 4.3% in 2024 and further to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, which is below the manufacturing average [5] - The ongoing price wars and "involution" competition in the automotive sector are leading to decreased efficiency across the supply chain, which could undermine research and development capabilities and raise quality concerns [7][8] Group 4 - Multiple departments are intensifying efforts to address "involution" competition, aiming to foster effective competition, technological innovation, and market expansion [9][10] - The NDRC is committed to addressing structural issues in key industries through targeted policies and measures, promoting healthy development and quality upgrades [10][11] Group 5 - The ongoing special actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement are crucial for optimizing the business environment and stabilizing market expectations, which will help private enterprises to develop confidently [11][12] - The special actions have already identified over 6,200 issues and recovered significant amounts for affected enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to improving regulatory practices [12][13]