同时为了进一步鼓励出口，国家对那些出口企业进行出口退税。而这一措施一推行就是几十年，经济形势证明，出口退税已经是可有可无的政策。 2024年，中国出口退税规模已达1.93万亿，较上年增长12.6%，占当年税收收入比重11.02%。可见，随着时间推移，出口退税已呈现出尾大不掉的趋势： 出口是推动经济的三驾马车之一。过去为挣外汇，什么样的工业制造、农业生产甚至包括简易的手工业制品都一锅端的外销。简之一句话：国外有需求、 国内就能销。 一.多年间，中国对外贸易一直顺差，外汇储备已足够，出口退税政策的使命业已完成。如2025年前11个月中国贸易顺差1.07万亿、2025年12月中国外汇储 备规模33579亿美元； 二.出口退税最大的受益者是小微企业，退税金额9178亿元，占比39.7%；其次是中型企业，退税5104亿元，占比22.1%；大型企业退税8815亿元，占比 38.2%； 出口退税虽有益于助力外贸企业降低成本，增强国际竞争力，但其劣势也比较显眼： <1＞.让部分企业形成退税依赖。如义乌一打火机厂，出厂价1.2元，运到美国卖1.5元，运费远比利润高。但老板却说不亏，"国家退税8分钱，自己赚2 分"； <2＞.中 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy storage and hydrogen energy industry in China, highlighting the acceleration of energy storage projects through pricing mechanisms and policy adjustments, particularly in capacity electricity fees [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The global electrochemical energy storage project bidding volume is expected to add nearly 1.5 TWh by 2025, with Asia accounting for 75% and China nearly half of that total [1][3]. - The core drivers for the 2025 energy storage market include the increasing share of wind and solar power generation and the deepening of electricity market reforms, drawing lessons from developed markets like the US and Europe [2][5]. - The capacity electricity fee policy is highly anticipated, as it will provide better guidance for investors in the context of a new power system with a higher proportion of renewable energy [5]. Growth Trends - By 2025, the energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with a focus on large-capacity, long-life battery cells and advanced Power Conversion Systems (PCS) [3][6]. - The green hydrogen economic tipping point is approaching, with costs expected to decrease due to improved efficiency in hydrogen production and the implementation of green electricity direct connection policies [12][13]. R&D Trends and Competitive Landscape - Energy storage product development is focused on two levels: battery cells and PCS, with advancements aimed at increasing capacity and efficiency [6][7]. - The international trade environment is becoming increasingly complex, leading domestic energy storage companies to expand overseas to optimize profit structures amid intense domestic competition [8][9]. Policy Expectations - The capacity electricity fee policy is expected to be beneficial for energy storage, as it addresses the pricing challenges in a market with a growing share of renewable energy [5]. Hydrogen Energy Development - Hydrogen energy is still in the early stages of commercialization but is seen as a crucial method for decarbonizing non-electric sectors [12]. - The demand for green hydrogen is driven by strict decarbonization requirements in the shipping industry, with significant policies being implemented by the EU and the International Maritime Organization [14][15]. Companies to Watch - Key players in the green methanol production sector include China Tianying and Jidian Co., which have secured long-term agreements with major shipping companies, ensuring sales certainty and long-term profits [17]. - In the fuel cell vehicle sector, companies like Reformed Energy and Yihuatong are leading, with market shares exceeding 20%, benefiting from new subsidies and cost reductions [19]. Conclusion - The energy storage and hydrogen energy sectors are poised for significant growth driven by policy support, technological advancements, and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Companies that can navigate the competitive landscape and leverage international opportunities are likely to thrive in this evolving market [8][9][10].

Industry Highlights - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. Power batteries will contribute significantly, reaching 1495 GWh with a growth of 40.5%, while energy storage batteries will exceed 27% market share, growing to 636 GWh at a remarkable 92.7% increase [1] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a tiered export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, which includes a reduction of the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%. This marks a critical transition for China's new energy industry from subsidy-driven to market-driven competition [2] Major Contracts - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) signed a procurement cooperation agreement with Rongbai Technology for lithium iron phosphate materials, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan for 305,000 tons from Q1 2026 to 2031 [3] Production Capacity - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has commenced operations at its ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with an annual production capacity expected to gradually increase to 20,000 tons [4] Market Trends - The domestic lithium carbonate market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices peaking at 170,000 yuan/ton, the highest in over two years. The market remains optimistic for Q1, despite being in a traditionally slow season, driven by export tax expectations and reduced supply due to maintenance at major lithium salt plants [6] Pricing Updates - As of January 15, 2023, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 155,000 to 162,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade is between 141,000 to 147,000 yuan/ton. The prices for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate have also seen increases due to rising raw material costs [7][9] Battery Production - Battery manufacturers are operating at full capacity, with the export tax policy significantly impacting energy storage and overseas clients. However, production increases are limited due to existing capacity constraints [14] Electric Vehicle Market - In early January 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 328,000 units, a 32% year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle sales were 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year. By 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales are expected to reach 16.626 million and 16.49 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [15] Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage cell prices have risen, with most manufacturers increasing product prices. The market is currently in a stocking phase, with significant demand expected in the upcoming quarters [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report analyzes the market trends, core logics, technical aspects, and provides strategy suggestions for three commodities: lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon futures. It also lists the subsequent focus points for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The main 2605 contract rose 0.79% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 163,220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the exchange's regulatory intervention on the 13th, market sentiment cooled. The sharp rise at the beginning of the week was due to the export tax - rebate policy, which might prompt battery companies to stock up, and the booming domestic energy - storage project bidding. However, the continuous decline in positions may lead to a risk of concentrated profit - taking by long positions [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is still controlled by long positions. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 143,420 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in positions requires caution [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly to go long on dips. Avoid chasing highs directly and find good entry points according to certain methods. Listen to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [2][3]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium ore supply [4][5]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline. The main 2605 contract fell 0.56% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 48,670 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a three - year high. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and it has reached a six - month low [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 53,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for low - buying opportunities after stabilization as the decline amplitude is narrowing [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The 2605 contract decreased 0.29% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,730 yuan/ton [16]. - **Core Logic**: It is controlled by short positions. The supply and demand are both weak, the downstream procurement is sluggish, and the inventory is at a three - year high. There is cost support below, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall positions continued to decline. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles show certain trends, with the long - short dividing line at 8,815 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the middle of the oscillation range, short on rebounds. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon's return to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Refer to the band winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [16]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [17].

Core Viewpoint - The silicon wafer prices remain stable this week, with downstream battery prices continuing to rise, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by various factors [1][2]. Group 1: Silicon Wafer Prices - The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130μm) is 1.31 yuan per piece, unchanged from last week [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) is 1.42 yuan per piece, also stable compared to the previous week [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130μm) is 1.66 yuan per piece, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The silicon wafer market is experiencing weak demand, with no significant price fluctuations due to multiple factors, including rising silver prices and weak terminal installation demand [2]. - The operating rates of silicon wafer manufacturers have continued to decline, with major companies operating at 50% and 48%, while integrated companies operate between 50%-70% [2]. - The upstream silicon material prices remain firm, providing some cost support, but the overall market sentiment is characterized by a standoff between upstream and downstream players [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future market conditions may improve due to export tax rebate policies, which are expected to enhance overseas demand in the first quarter [2]. - Despite potential improvements, the overall terminal installation demand remains weak, and battery manufacturers are pushing for lower silicon wafer prices, suggesting a continued weak market trend in the short term [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol futures market maintains a slight oscillation, with support at the 60 - day moving average. There's a high possibility of a inventory inflection point in Q1 2026, and investors can focus on buying opportunities after price dips. Currently, methanol is undervalued. Although the overall rebound is limited by weak downstream demand, it is likely to rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to a small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian remained stable [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products including methanol will be cancelled [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a slight oscillation, and the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart provides support. There's a high chance of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Investors can consider buying after price drops. Methanol is undervalued, and its rebound is restricted by weak downstream demand, but it may rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4]

7月，江西、青海等地矿权审批问题引发供应担忧，叠加行业政策基调与下游需求回暖，价格强势反 弹。8月，江西某头部企业停产落地，推动价格冲高至阶段高点，现货价格接近8.4万元/吨。 10月起，碳酸锂下游旺季需求开始显现，市场延续去库状态，驱动价格再次开启上行。 11月至12月，需求保持旺盛，碳酸锂供需格局维持收紧状态，尽管现货市场呈现出价格高位运行后成交 活跃度受限的情况，但下游需求仍在某些价格运行阶段有所释放，且随着江西某矿山年内复产预期不断 减弱，支撑工碳价格不断冲击高位，并在年底突破12.4万元/吨。 "相较于2025年下半年的上涨行情，2026年开年至今，碳酸锂价格上涨还受到出口退税政策影响，中国 锂电企业即日起开始抢出口。在出口退税政策逐步退坡的影响下，2027年的海外部分需求将提前至2026 年。"上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师李攀表示，当前碳酸锂市场正处于"供应扰动叠加下游需求爆发 增长"的市场环境下。供应方面，市场主要受枧下窝矿区停产造成的供应扰动，需求则是动力端和储能 需求双重爆发造成的需求大幅增长以及出口退税政策调整导致的下游抢出口带来的需求增长。当下需求 增长带来的对价格的影响权重会更高一些 ...

1月13日，国内期货市场碳酸锂主力合约2605持续领涨，盘中一度涨停，突破17万元/吨关口。不过午后 该主力合约涨势回落，截至下午收盘，碳酸锂2605合约报涨7.44%，收于166980元/吨。 （原标题：碳酸锂期货，突破17万元关口！） 去年10月份，碳酸锂价格从约7.5万元/吨开始启动大幅回升，目前已实现翻倍。进入2026年以来，碳酸 锂主力合约2605价格就已录得超40%的涨幅。 11月至12月，需求保持旺盛，碳酸锂供需格局维持收紧状态，尽管现货市场呈现出价格高位运行后成交 活跃度受限的情况，但下游需求仍在某些价格运行阶段有所释放，且随着江西某矿山年内复产预期不断 减弱，支撑工碳价格不断冲击高位，并在年底突破12.4万元/吨。 "相较于2025年下半年的上涨行情，2026年开年至今，碳酸锂价格上涨还受到出口退税政策影响，中国 锂电企业即日起开始抢出口。在出口退税政策逐步退坡的影响下，2027年的海外部分需求将提前至2026 年。"上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师李攀表示，当前碳酸锂市场正处于"供应扰动叠加下游需求爆发 增长"的市场环境下。供应方面，市场主要受枧下窝矿区停产造成的供应扰动，需求则是动力端和储 ...

1月13日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1210.3点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1220.4点，跌幅3.81%。 指数方面，1月9日，SCFI欧线指数为1719美元/TEU，较上期上涨1.7%。线上运价方面，HPL1月至2月 上半月大柜运价2735美金，下调300美金；CMA2月初大柜运价3893美金，下调200美金。地缘方面，1 月12日，哈马斯已向埃及方面提交一份包含40名候选人的名单，由埃及从中挑选成员组成未来的加沙管 理委员会。综合而言，光伏等产品取消出口退税政策带来抢运预期，短期情绪面利多，但相关产品占欧 线货量仅约5%，加上04合约处在传统需求淡季，建议谨慎看待上方空间，关注今日马士基开舱价指 引。期价随资金博弈波动，谨慎操作。 国泰君安期货：集运指数（欧线）04轻仓试空 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空。出口退税政策催生"抢出口"预期带动盘面反弹。运力 端，观察2026年春节前（week-1至week-5)、春节中(week0至week2）以及春节后（week3至week5）的运 力分布情况：2026年大年初一是2月17日，位于第8周（即 ...

【PVC现货】 国内PVC市场盘中大幅震荡，受周五晚间发布PVC取消出口退税影响，市场担忧远期出口竞争优势减 弱，盘中一度探低，今日市场黑色等产业盘面持续上涨推动成本支撑增强，叠加市场对政策前出口的预 期向好，午后市场止跌回涨，现货市场成交重心调整有限，华东地区电石法五型现货库提在4580-4680 元/吨，乙烯法僵持在4700-4900元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：截止1月9日PVC粉整体开工负荷率为78.85%，环比上周77.34%提升1.51个百分点；其中电石法 PVC粉开工负荷率为80.23%，环比上周78.23%提升2个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为75.69%，环 比上周75.28%提升0.41个百分点。周内检修企业较少，本周检修损失量下降；除此之外，部分前期降负 荷企业近期开工逐步提升。 库存：截至1月8日本周PVC社会库存统计环比增加3.48%至111.41万吨，环比节前增加4.72%，同比增加 40.98%；其中华东地区在106.04万吨，环比增加3.68%，同比增加40.69%；华南地区在5.37万吨，环比 减少0.26%，同比增加47.06%。 【PVC行情展望】 周一PVC ...