1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

Group 1: Core Concept - Margin trading allows investors to borrow money or stocks from securities companies to trade, amplifying potential returns but also risks [1][3][5] Group 2: Margin Financing - Investors can borrow money to purchase stocks if they believe the stock price will rise, enabling them to buy more shares than they could with their own funds [1][3] - For example, if a stock is priced at 10 yuan and an investor wants to buy 10,000 shares but only has 50,000 yuan, they can borrow 50,000 yuan to complete the purchase [1] - If the stock price rises to 12 yuan, selling the shares would yield 120,000 yuan, allowing the investor to repay the loan and keep the profit [1] Group 3: Margin Short Selling - Investors can borrow stocks to sell if they believe the stock price will decline, allowing them to profit from the price difference [3][5] - For instance, if a stock is priced at 15 yuan and an investor borrows 10,000 shares to sell, they would receive 150,000 yuan [3] - If the stock price later drops to 10 yuan, the investor can buy back the shares for 100,000 yuan, returning them to the lender and keeping the profit [3] Group 4: Participation Requirements - Securities companies assess investors' assets, trading experience, and risk tolerance before allowing participation in margin trading [3][5] - Investors must have at least six months of trading experience and an average asset of over 500,000 yuan across 20 trading days to qualify [3] Group 5: Risks of Margin Trading - Leverage risk: Margin trading amplifies both potential gains and losses, which can lead to significant financial loss if stock prices move unfavorably [5][7] - Forced liquidation risk: If the value of the investor's account falls below a certain threshold, the securities company may require additional collateral or liquidate positions to cover the loan [5][7] - Market risk: Stock prices can be volatile due to various factors, which may adversely affect the returns from margin trading [7] - Interest rate risk: Changes in interest rates can increase the cost of margin trading, reducing overall profitability [7]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in the bond market following the LPR reduction on May 20, 2025, with a notable increase in the issuance of special government bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.2 basis points to 1.72% compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the yield curve [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 8.0 basis points to 4.51%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy due to the Trump tax cuts, which widened the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The R007 and DR007 interbank liquidity rates increased by 4.6 basis points and 4.4 basis points respectively, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [1] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the 10-year government bond index (H11077), which includes publicly issued and listed government bonds with a maturity of 6.5 to 10 years, serving as a benchmark for long-term government bond market performance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

| I C E H Ho | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博策略参 | | | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | 行业板块 趋势研判 品种 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减,加上当前 | | 股指 震荡 | | 反弹已至区间上沿,在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入 | | | | 震荡整固阶段,策略上、短线多单考虑冲高止盈, 警惕调整风险 | | 宏观金融 震荡 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 国债 | | 空间。 | | 賣金 農汤 | | 多空交织，短期金价或盘整震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | 白银 震荡 | C B | 跟随黄金宽幅震荡, 但中期上方空间有限。 | | 看空 第四 | | 近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市场风险偏好,叠加铜下游需求有 | | | | 所转弱,铜价短期偏弱运行。 | | 農汤 | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | | | | 受限,预计近期震荡运行。 | | 氢化 ...