Group 1: Silver Fund Premium - The only silver fund in China has reached a historical high premium of 12%, indicating that investors are buying at a price higher than the actual asset value [9][10] - The fund manager has issued multiple warnings about the risks of blindly purchasing high-premium fund shares, suggesting potential significant losses for investors [7][10] - Investors in the silver fund need the silver price to increase by at least 12% to make a profit, or find someone willing to buy at a higher price, otherwise, they face compounded losses [10] Group 2: Yield Curve Steepening - The yield curve is becoming steeper, meaning that long-term interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates, which poses risks for long-term bond fund investors [11][16] - The recent steepening of the yield curve is attributed to an increase in long-term debt issuance and a shift in investment focus towards the stock market, leading to a gradual rise in interest rates [18] - The current economic policy outlook suggests that the steepening trend in the yield curve may continue, indicating a potential for long-term interest rates to rise further [18] Group 3: Market Imbalances - Both the silver fund and the bond market reflect structural imbalances that could lead to value corrections, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying causes of market distortions [20] - The silver fund's popularity is influenced by external factors such as trade conflicts, while the bond market's previous low rates were a result of supply shortages during an asset scarcity period [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential pricing bubbles driven by market distortions, especially when many retail investors are involved [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - **Black Metals**: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese**: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - **Corn**: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - **Imported Soybeans**: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - **Logs**: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - **BR Rubber**: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber**: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - **Styrene**: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - **PP, PE**: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - **Urea**: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - **Propylene**: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - **LPG**: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]

Group 1 - Several leading listed companies have announced substantial hedging plans for the 2026 fiscal year, with notable commitments from 佛燃能源, 新奥股份, 隆基股份, and 三一重工 [1] - 佛燃能源 has set a maximum contract value limit of 12 billion RMB for its commodity and foreign exchange hedging business for 2026, with a margin cap of 4.17 billion RMB [1] - 新奥股份 plans to utilize a maximum margin and premium of 4.7 billion USD for its 2026 commodity hedging plan [1] - 隆基股份 has a maximum margin limit of 1.5 billion RMB for its hedging business in 2026 [1] - 三一重工's subsidiary plans to have a maximum trading margin and premium of 800 million RMB, with a maximum contract value of 2 billion RMB on any trading day [1] Group 2 - A total of 1,782 A-share listed companies in the real economy issued hedging-related announcements from January to November 2025, an increase of 279 companies or 18.6% compared to the entire year of 2024 [3] - Currency risk remains the primary hedging demand, with 1,311 companies issuing related announcements, followed by interest rate risk (517 companies) and commodity price risk (481 companies) [3] - The electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, and pharmaceutical industries have the highest number of companies engaging in hedging [3] - Copper is identified as the most actively hedged commodity [3] - Over 30 domestic insurance institutions have entered the futures market, primarily using government bond futures and stock index futures to manage interest rate risk and equity market volatility [3] - The number of new accounts opened by insurance funds in the futures market increased by 166% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, reaching a historical high [3] - Recent regulatory documents have supported the participation of insurance funds in financial derivatives trading, providing a framework for managing asset-liability risks [3]

12月11日，香港金融管理局（以下简称"香港金管局"）根据预设公式，将香港的基本利率调整为 4.00%，实时生效。香港金管局介绍，基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基 础利率。 美国有关部门在当地时间12月10日，调低了联邦基金利率的目标区间25个基点。基于香港的"联系汇率 制度"和维持金融系统稳定的需要，香港的利率水平也会相应调整。由于调整后的美国联邦基金利率目 标区间的下限加50个基点是4.00%，所以根据香港金融管理局的预设公式，将香港的基本利率设定于 4.00%。 香港金管局：美联储利率仍存在不确定性，投资需考虑利率风险 12月11日上午，香港金管局总裁余伟文对记者表示，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称"美联储"）本次降 息的决定，大致与市场预期差不多。美联储有可能在2026年继续减息，但仍然存在很大的不确定性，其 未来货币政策的走向还需要观察。他说，香港金融市场保持稳健。比较短期的银行同业拆息受到香港本 地市场的因素影响，包括季节性影响、资本市场活动等。而在存贷利率方面，银行也会考虑到多重因 素，评估调整利率的调整幅度。 第三季度服务业收益数据出炉：香港IT服务界及旅游会展向好 本周 ...

余伟文表示，香港方面，货币及金融市场保持有序运作。港元拆息在联系汇率制度下整体上趋近美元利 率水平，而较短期限的拆息也同时受本地市场港元资金供求影响，例如年结等季节性因素及资本市场活 动。 至于存贷利率方面，余伟文表示，银行一般会考虑同业市场资金供求、拆息及相关利率水平、本身的资 金成本结构等因素，来评估是否需要调整及调整的幅度。美国未来利率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的 利率环境亦会有所影响，市民在作出置业、投资或借贷决定时，需充分考虑及管理利率风险。香港金管 局会继续密切监察市场变化，维持货币及金融稳定。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。12月11日，香港金融管理局跟进下调基本利 率至4%。 关于美联储最新利率决议，香港金融管理局总裁余伟文12月11日发表观点称，美联储自2024年9月开启 降息周期以来已经降息175基点。会后发表的点阵图显示，美联储有可能于2026年内再降息25基点，但 通胀走势和就业市场情况仍存在较大不确定性，因而未来的货币政策走向有待观察。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, but uncertainties regarding inflation and employment remain [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in interest rates is expected to positively influence the housing market and the economy, as well as lower borrowing costs [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted that the recent economic growth in Hong Kong, such as a 3.8% increase in the third quarter, is strong in both exports and consumption, which is expected to have a positive effect on consumer spending [1] Group 2: Response to Local Events - In response to the fire at the Hong Fu Court in Tai Po, the HKMA and the banking sector have quickly implemented two rounds of measures totaling 11 initiatives to assist victims [1] - The situation regarding mortgages at Hong Fu Court is complex, and discussions are ongoing with various stakeholders, including the government and legal professionals, to develop a solution [1]

位。(3) 短纤价格继续跟随成本紧密波动。 能源化 (1) 苯乙烯市场整体维持窄幅震荡。 (2) 出口的讨论提供一定 支撑,但聚合物市场销售疲软。(3)美国汽油需求转弱,调油料 价格下行,高辛烷值组分价格下行。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 尿素 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 检修减少,开工负荷高位。(2)远洋到港,供应增加。( 3) 下游需求开工走弱。（4）原油价格走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)丙烯单体高位,成本支撑较强。(4)原油价格 走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 盘面回归基本面。 (2)后续检修较少,新产能放量,供应 PVC 压力攀升。 需求减弱, 订单不佳。 (1) 广西氧化铝投前开始送货,部分氧化铝厂延迟投产,采购节 奏放缓。（2）开工负荷较高,检修较少。(3)山东烧碱存在累 库压力,液氯价格居高不下。(4)临近交割月,01合约持仓异 常,出现空逼多现象。 (1) 地缘/关税缓和,国际油气回归基本面宽松逻辑。(2) CP/ FEI近期回补修复上行。(3)华南茂名石化乙烯装置计划检修, 届时至1月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

Group 1 - The global bond market is focusing on three main themes: European fiscal risks, a data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [1] - The European Central Bank warns of increasing sovereign debt supply pressure and a shrinking scale of central bank bond purchases, leading to rising interest rate risks [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December in the US has dropped from 95% to 50% due to government shutdown, creating policy uncertainty in the market [1] Group 2 - Major bond yields globally have generally declined, with US long-term yields falling more than short-term yields, exemplified by a 5.2 basis point drop in the 30-year yield [1] - The UK 10-year bond yield saw a significant drop of 9.34 basis points, leading declines in developed markets [1] - Credit spreads have compressed significantly, with investment-grade corporate bonds dropping by 11 basis points and high-yield bonds decreasing by 29 basis points to 6.58% [1] Group 3 - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 41, with a scale of 95.383 billion yuan, where central bank bills accounted for 47.2% of the issuance [2] - The overall issuance structure is dominated by bank financial bonds, with urban investment bonds' coupon rates concentrated in the 5-7% range [2] - Offshore RMB bonds show a flattening characteristic with short-end yields rising and long-end yields falling, while the sovereign bond 10-year spread narrowed from 8.95 basis points to 5.19 basis points [2] Group 4 - The global bond market is experiencing a stable credit environment with no major sovereign rating adjustments or systemic defaults [3] - The debt of high-risk US companies increased from $271 billion to $296 billion, a rise of 9.2%, indicating accumulating refinancing pressure [3] - The net outflow from high-yield bond funds was $333 million, and from leveraged loan funds was $89 million, indicating pressure on liquidity [3] Group 5 - The strategy suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-term bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve and rolling down yields, while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4] - The preferred regional allocation includes US investment-grade corporate bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, while caution is advised for European bonds [4]