内容概要：钛锭具有比强度高、耐蚀耐热、无磁无毒、生物相容性好等特性，是继钢铁、铝之后的重要 金属材料，广泛应用于航空、航天、航海、军工、核电、电子、医疗、化工等领域，被誉为"第三金 属"、"太空金属"、"海洋金属"等。钛锭材料在国民经济中的应用在一定程度上反映了一个国家的综合 国力、经济实力和国防实力，是高新技术不可或缺的关键材料。随着下游领域对钛材需求的拉动，钛锭 需求量提升，进一步推动了钛锭和钛加工材的产量增加。同时，随着我国钛材加工工艺不断提升，国产 钛材产品质量在国际市场中的认可度有所提升，我国钛锭出口贸易有所增加。据统计，2024年，中国钛 锭产量为19万吨，需求量约达18.19万吨，进口量0.4万吨，出口量1.21万吨；预计2025年，中国钛锭产 量约为23.5万吨，需求量约22.69万吨，进口量0.65万吨，出口量1.5万吨。我国是钛锭主要生产国，钛锭 产量超过全球钛锭产量的60%。未来，随着国产替代加速与出口结构优化，预计2026年我国钛锭出口量 保持增长。 钛锭铸锭的熔炼方法及生产步骤 二、钛锭行业发展现状 钛锭具有比强度高、耐蚀耐热、无磁无毒、生物相容性好等特性，是继钢铁、铝之后的重要金属 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...

2025 年 7 月份是化工行业行情的起点，这一时间点具有必然性和偶然性。首 先，从供给端来看，2025 年整个化工行业的新增产能基本落地或进入产能消 化阶段，各子行业的产能增速大幅下降，甚至未来几年可能出现供给收缩。这 种边际变化在报表上暂时未显现，但对市场影响深远。其次，2025 年 7 月中 央财经会议上，习近平总书记特别强调反内卷政策，这一政策导向对市场情绪 产生了积极影响。此外，当时化工板块股票位置、盈利和估值均较低，机构配 化工行业产能过剩问题若仅依靠市场化出清，要么不可行，要么代价过 大。需要通过提高标准和双碳政策引导来逐步实现反内卷，而不是像过 去那样一刀切地进行供给侧改革。 炼化和煤化工板块表现最佳的原因在于其产品种类丰富且体量大，具备 显著的成本优势，是双碳政策和反内卷政策的最先受益者，且在化工 ETF 中的权重较高，受政策影响的概率更大。 预计这波化工行情将持续两到三年甚至更长时间，由于反内卷及双碳政 策等慢变量因素影响，将使得整个过程更加持久。从供给端优化开始， 到盈利修复，再到需求迸发式增长，各个子行业将逐步迎来供不应求局 面。 化工行业产能增速大幅下降，未来几年可能出现供给收缩，但 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-24 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 春节前最后一个交易日螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3055 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.163%）。当 日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比增加 2694 吨。主力合约持仓量为 194.24 万手，环比减少 87095 手。现货市场 方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/ 吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3222 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 332840 吨, 环比增加 34986 吨。主 ...

一、行业概况与发展趋势 陕西省作为西北工业重镇，近年来在矿产、建材、化工等领域的快速发展推动了对高强度包装材料的需 求。塑编集装袋（吨袋）凭借其承载能力强、可循环使用等特性，逐渐成为大宗商品运输的主流选择。 行业呈现三大趋势： 1. 环保化：可降解材料应用加速，符合"双碳"政策要求； 2. 定制化：针对不同行业需求开发防静电、耐腐蚀等特种产品； 3. 服务化：企业从单一生产向全流程解决方案转型，强化技术支持与供应链响应。 二、广平县凯盛包装有限公司核心竞争力分析 1. 企业实力与行业积淀 3. 质量信任背书 设备与工艺：配备全自动生产线及德国工艺标准，缝线强度达12N/50mm，远超行业平均水平； 多元化产品矩阵：主营吨包袋、集装袋、基布等，支持防漏、防潮、耐高温等定制化设计，适配 矿产、建材、化工等高要求场景。 技术创新驱动：采用进口聚丙烯原料，结合精密测试仪器与完善检测手段，确保产品承重稳定性 （单层吊带拉力≥2吨）和密封性。 灵活服务体系：提供从设计、生产到物流的全流程支持，承诺24小时内响应技术问题，紧急订单 快速交付。 检测体系：执行GB/T10454-2000国家标准，产品合格率连续三年保持99. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading integrated chemical enterprise with diversified operations, resembling a smaller version of a chemical ETF. The report anticipates an upward trend in the chemical industry, suggesting that the company has significant potential for improvement in product pricing and demand [6][14]. - The company's main business segments include polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, with a strong competitive advantage in each area [6][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections Main Business - The company operates in three primary segments: polyurethane, petrochemicals, and fine chemicals/new materials. It has established a strong competitive edge in each sector, particularly in MDI and TDI production, with total capacities of 3.8 million tons/year and 1.44 million tons/year, respectively [6][22][37]. Product Prosperity - The chemical industry is currently at a low point but is expected to gradually improve. The company's products show significant potential for upward elasticity, with many price differentials at historical lows. The IMF has raised its global GDP growth forecast, which is likely to boost chemical consumption [7][48]. - Specific product insights include: - Polyurethane: MDI and TDI prices are at historical low percentiles of 26.6% and 37.6%, respectively, indicating potential for recovery [53]. - Petrochemicals: Price differentials for key products like propylene and ethylene are at 19.3% and 3.0%, respectively, suggesting a potential for price recovery [56]. - Fine Chemicals and New Materials: Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have risen significantly, indicating strong demand and potential for sustained high profitability [53][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's ability to capitalize on the expected recovery in the chemical industry, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated upward elasticity of its product lines [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company Longyuan Power (000966.SZ) is expected to report a loss for 2025, despite strong performance in January's power generation and ongoing investment in renewable energy projects, amid increasing volatility in main capital and changing industry policy environment [1]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of between 65 million to 97 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 109.09% to 113.56%, primarily due to decreases in both power generation and electricity selling prices [2]. Operational Status - In January 2026, the company achieved a power generation of 3.971 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 37.81%, with thermal and hydro power generation rising by 41.13% and 133.37% respectively, while renewable energy generation decreased by 12.73%, potentially impacting short-term market sentiment [3]. Project Development - In January 2026, the company announced plans to invest 572 million yuan in a 100MW wind power project, with an expected internal rate of return of 7.33%, aimed at accelerating its green transition, which may support long-term performance post-project launch [4]. Capital Situation - Recent capital flows have shown divergence, with a net outflow of 18.556 million yuan on February 13, 2026, leading to a 2.17% drop in stock price, while a net inflow of 13.5188 million yuan on February 6 resulted in a 2.02% increase, reflecting market speculation on transformation expectations [5]. Industry Policy and Environment - The thermal power industry in 2026 faces trends of bottoming electricity volume and prices, alongside rising capacity prices, with deepening electricity market reforms potentially affecting the company's profit stability. Attention is needed on the long-term driving effect of "dual carbon" policies on renewable energy consumption [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - building materials market is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the black - building materials are likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery strength of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For the whole year of 2026, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 16,903 tons, with a net decrease of 0 tons compared to the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0295 million lots, a decrease of 34,123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 297,854 tons, an increase of 21,435 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5337 million lots, a decrease of 18,682 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Strategy Views - The short - term impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel supply - demand pattern is relatively limited, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have a seasonal decline, and the inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined, the production decline is relatively slow, and the inventory has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.07% (- 0.50). The position changed by - 9039 lots to 497,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 854,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.41% [3]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period have declined significantly. Affected by cyclones, the shipments from Australia have dropped sharply, and the shipments of three major Australian mines have decreased significantly. The shipments from Brazil have decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries have remained stable. The near - end arrivals have decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's statistics has increased to 2.3049 million tons. The resumption of blast furnaces is mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and at the same time, some blast furnaces in certain regions have started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills has declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years and has decreased month - on - month. Near the Spring Festival, the inventory has accelerated the transfer to the factories, driving up the port clearance volume. The steel mills' procurement rhythm has accelerated, and the imported ore inventory has increased significantly. Overall, overseas shipments are gradually entering the off - season and are declining month - on - month, while pig iron production is in a recovery trend, and there is no obvious marginal contradiction in supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, there is a certain risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and it is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments, the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand after the Spring Festival, and the pig iron production rhythm [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.41% at 5800 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.36% at 5500 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. In the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals has dragged down the market sentiment. From the perspective of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been reflected in the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement with the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the direction of the black - building materials sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. Particular attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese - ore segment and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.31% at 1120.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 133 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 82 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.18% at 1664.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 61.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price [11]. Strategy Views - In the short term, although there are many overseas coal - related disturbances with a bullish atmosphere, they have no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking - coal fundamentals. The sharp rise and fall of precious metals have magnified the overall volatility of the coking - coal futures price and put pressure on the market sentiment. In terms of the supply - demand structure, coking coal and coke are gradually becoming more relaxed. Although there is still some restocking by downstream enterprises, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the restocking is coming to an end, and the restocking willingness of downstream steel mills is significantly low. Therefore, the restocking is not expected to form a strong price - driving force. In addition, although the coking - coal futures price often shows abnormal fluctuations, the short - term upward driving force is not strong due to insufficient fundamental support and an unfavorable market - sentiment environment. Considering the current time node, there is a risk of a phased price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [14][15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8335 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.42% (- 35). The weighted contract position changed by - 7100 lots to 417,094 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 49015 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.34% (- 165). The weighted contract position changed by - 808 lots to 64,320 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4235 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: In February, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak. The supply may contract significantly, and the demand is also weak. Although the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve to some extent, the upward driving force is insufficient in the weak commodity - market atmosphere. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment caused by market - sentiment fluctuations [20]. - Polysilicon: In February, the supply of polysilicon continues to decrease, and the silicon - wafer production is expected to remain stable. The high inventory in the silicon - material segment is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot - price game continues, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the Spring Festival. The polysilicon futures is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1065 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 6). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, an increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 16,548 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 7627 lots [24]. - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 1.36% (- 16). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.0096 million tons (+ 0.961%). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 756,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 831,600 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders decreased their long positions by 16,540 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 8571 lots [26]. Strategy Views - Glass: Downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage of production, mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and their inventory is generally at a low level. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. However, due to the lack of substantial demand recovery or policy support, the market has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The demand for heavy soda ash remains weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. In the relatively loose supply - demand structure, the market shows a weak and stable oscillation trend. Although the glass demand is expected to remain stable during the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward driving force, and it is expected that the soda - ash price will continue to run weakly. The main - contract reference range is 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [27].

Company Project Progress - The company plans to add coal production capacity of 6.4 million tons per year and coal chemical capacity of 900,000 tons per year by the end of 2026 or 2027. Specific projects include the Libu Mine and the Weizigou Coal Mine expansion, with progress reported at 50.59% and 72.39% respectively as of August 2025, and expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [2] Industry Policy Status - The domestic coal market is expected to see a slowdown in supply growth by 2026, but there is significant policy support at the bottom. The continuation of the National Energy Administration's overproduction policy may create a price range for coal. Additionally, the advancement of "dual carbon" policies may limit coal demand growth, although demand in the coal chemical sector is expected to increase [3] Company Structure and Governance - The company completed adjustments to its fifth board of directors' special committee on January 30, 2026. Future attention should be given to the release schedule of regular reports, such as the 2025 annual report, and potential investor research activities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery intensity of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [3]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival. Future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, although it is thought that coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, in the short term, the upward catalyst is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival [15][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, with supply and demand both weak in February, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. - For glass, it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Summary by Categories Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 16,903 tons, a net increase of 1,193 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 2.0637 million lots, a net decrease of 1,877 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3228 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.248%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 276,419 tons, a net increase of 23,219 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5524 million lots, a net increase of 9,529 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has recovered, but the prices of finished steel products have continued to be weak. In the short term, the new carbon - trading policy has limited direct impact on the steel supply - demand pattern, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have both declined seasonally, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable; the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also increased slightly, with the supply - demand structure being generally neutral [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The open interest changed by - 6983 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 867,900 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.35% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has declined significantly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia has decreased sharply due to cyclones, and the shipping volume from Brazil has decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries has remained basically stable, and the near - end arrival volume has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output in the latest period was 228.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons, lower than expected. The port inventory has continued to increase and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which exerts pressure on the absolute price. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5824 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures surface, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.07% at 5574 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but these factors may have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.40% at 1123.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.12% at 1667.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 58.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 99 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas coal - related disturbances have been frequent recently, and the sentiment is bullish, but it has no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking coal market. The price of coking coal has fluctuated significantly due to the sharp rise and fall of precious metals. In the short term, the upward catalyst for coking coal prices is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, especially during the period from June to October [15][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 5). The weighted contract open interest increased by 5762 lots to 424,194 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 830 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after converting to the futures price was 480 yuan/ton [19]. - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 49180 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.47% (+230). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 700 lots to 65,128 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.65 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4470 yuan/ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak in February. The supply may shrink significantly, and the demand is also weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.09% (+1). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million boxes (+0.95%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7689 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 14,869 lots [25]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1178 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.60% (+7). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%), including 746,100 tons of heavy soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, and 835,000 tons of light soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 6900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 5814 lots [27]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage, with weak purchasing willingness. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, the demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. The market is in a weak and stable volatile state, and it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28].