证券研究报告 | 2025 年06月16日 02 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（163） 优于大市 看好养殖龙头估值修复，布局肉牛周期反转 周度农产品价格跟踪：生猪价格维持低波动，橡胶价格短期企稳。 生猪：产能维持低波动，预计 2025 年猪价景气有望延续。6 月 13 日生猪价 格 13.99 元/公斤，周环比-0.50%；7kg 仔猪价格约 469 元/头，周环比-3.53%。 白鸡：中期父母代同比减量且存在结构变化，消费或逐步上移。6 月 13 日， 鸡苗价格 2.2 元/羽，周环比-13.25%；毛鸡价格 7.2 元/千克，周环比+0.56%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。6 月 13 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.0/4.4/6.4 元，周环比-13%/-12%/-6%。 鸡蛋：祖代引种充裕，远月供给压力较大。6 月 13 日，鸡蛋主产区价格 2.64 元/斤，环比-6.71%，同比-40.27%。 肉牛：牛肉价格淡季不淡，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。6 月 13 日，国内 牛肉市场价为 59.38 元/kg，环比+0.00%，同比+28.39%。 豆粕：新季美 ...

文章转自2025年03月18日太平洋农林牧渔团队报告 ，分析师： 程晓东/ 李忠华 投资要点 原奶行业特点： 来需要 24垒场短时间内很难进入其供应链。 ，个目月2前；年以上的时间。其次，消费需求稳增。供给刚性主要由两方面因素决定： 投b.生资产新区建1）域奶周比牛期较场性集的较中投强，资：难额近以度年扩较来张大，。，原奶私奶牛人价喜资格凉本波怕占动热比通，较常生小五产。年性3）左能下右受游一温客个度户周影稳期响定。较a.性周生物资产特点。奶牛这一生物资产生产周期较长，从补栏到原奶产出需要至少 大较期，强性全，主球由要公于受认食两的品方"安黄面全金因特奶素殊源影性响带要："在求首我，先国大，仅型供占乳给国企具土对有面原刚积奶性的质，15%量一要旦。求生2）非产较短常高缺的，资恢新复本建起牧壁 优然牧业为国内奶牛养殖第一龙头，集规模、成本和客户优势为一体。 1）优然牧业是国内最大原奶供应商，产能规模位居全国第一。现拥有96座牧场、管理饲 养近60万头奶牛，原奶产量占全国的9.7%。2）产业链覆盖奶牛育种、饲料、养殖，规模效应显著，奶牛单产达到12.6吨，原奶饲料成本2.17元/公斤。3）手握优 质客户，优势明显 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a projected recovery in profit growth starting in Q1 2025, marking the end of a four-year downtrend [3] - Key drivers of this turnaround include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with a leaner structure, and a recovery in the real estate sector boosting the property chain [3] - The return on equity (ROE) has significantly improved from its bottom, supported by a decrease in expense ratios that offsets operational pressures, alongside a rebound in asset turnover and leverage [3] Market Sentiment and Risks - Risk appetite peaked in Q4 2024 and is expected to shift from pessimism to optimism, driven by breakthroughs in AI research and high-end manufacturing, as well as strengthened industrial cluster advantages [4] - Concerns regarding U.S. tariff risks are deemed logically flawed and not a major long-term issue for the A-share market [5] Investment Strategy - The focus for industry allocation in the A-share market should be on identifying stocks with upward elasticity, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI-enabled manufacturing and the inventory cycle reversal [5] - The forum highlighted the importance of deep research capabilities as a key to success in active equity investment amidst market volatility and industrial transformation [5] - The company has demonstrated strong performance over 26 years, with a cumulative return of 953.86% for its active equity products over nearly two decades, positioning it among the industry leaders [5]

Core Insights - The 12th Fortune Forum focused on new models of active equity investment in the A-share market, emphasizing consumer dynamics and the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Key speakers provided forward-looking insights on investment strategies, industry allocation, and market positioning to instill confidence and vitality in the market [1] Group 1: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with Q1 2025 marking a turnaround in profit growth after four years of decline [2] - The core drivers of this reversal include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with less burden, and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in second-hand housing [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) has significantly improved from its bottom, supported by a decrease in expense ratios offsetting operational pressures, and a recovery in asset turnover and leverage [2] - The market sentiment is expected to improve significantly due to the narrative of China's industrial transformation, including breakthroughs in AI and high-end manufacturing [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is showing structural investment opportunities, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios at near ten-year lows and institutional holdings at a bottom [3] - Catalysts for a rebound in the consumer sector include a peak in household savings rates, improved income expectations, and the re-emergence of wealth effects [3] - Investment opportunities include traditional consumer leaders with stable dividends and new consumption trends such as domestic brand growth and service consumption upgrades [3] - The second half of 2025 may present a recovery window for the consumer sector due to supportive consumption policies and a favorable profit base effect [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Resilience - Despite facing foreign capital outflow pressures, the Hong Kong stock market shows resilience supported by continuous inflows from southbound funds and increased company buybacks [4] - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a 12% annualized return in RMB terms over the past three years, highlighting the market's value proposition [4] - A GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is recommended, focusing on high-growth sectors like consumer and technology, stable cash flow assets, and companies with low leverage and high governance standards [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a fundamental approach to investment, selecting stocks based on strong earnings and favorable market conditions to achieve sustainable long-term returns [5] - The company has achieved a cumulative return of 953.86% over nearly two decades for its active equity products, positioning itself among industry leaders [5] - Continuous enhancement of professional investment capabilities is crucial for capturing certainty in investment opportunities amid global changes [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The 12th Fortune Forum focused on the transformation of the A-share market from a "stock economy" to a "new model," indicating a shift in investment strategies and consumer dynamics [1][2] - The forum attracted over 300 institutional investors and industry experts offline, with online viewership exceeding 160,000, highlighting the growing interest in proactive equity investment [1] - Key speakers provided insights into the recovery of the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of identifying growth-oriented sectors, particularly in AI-enabled manufacturing and inventory cycle reversals [2] Group 2: Key Themes from Speakers - Chen Jie highlighted that the A-share market is entering a recovery phase, with Q1 2025 profit growth turning positive after four years of decline, driven by low inventory levels and a recovering real estate market [2] - Zhou Wenbo discussed the undervaluation of the consumer sector, noting that the current PE percentile is at a near ten-year low, suggesting significant structural investment opportunities [3] - Zhang Feng emphasized the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market despite foreign capital outflows, advocating for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy to select high-growth, stable cash flow companies [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Chen Jie recommended focusing on sectors with upward elasticity and growth potential, particularly in AI and manufacturing, to capitalize on the recovery cycle [2] - Zhou Wenbo suggested balancing "valuation safety margins" with "growth certainty" in the consumer sector, anticipating a recovery window in the second half of 2025 [3] - Zhang Feng's investment approach involves selecting stocks with high earnings growth, stable cash flows, and low leverage, aiming for long-term sustainable returns [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a shareholder loss of 0.691 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.050 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The raw milk business showed strong growth, while the ruminant animal breeding solutions business faced challenges, with revenues of 15.1 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively for FY24, reflecting year-on-year changes of +17.0% and -13.7% [3] - The company’s cash EBITDA for FY24 reached 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 38.3% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance despite accounting losses from biological asset impairments [4] - The raw milk price is expected to enter a reversal cycle, with the company positioned to benefit as a leading player in the industry, anticipating a recovery in demand alongside supply-side adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for FY24 was 20.1 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 10.05 billion yuan for H2 FY24, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 28.8%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved operational management [4] Business Segments - The raw milk segment achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan in FY24, with a volume of 3.6695 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, while the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6.1% to 4.12 yuan/kg [3] - The company has increased its dairy cow inventory to 622,000 heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, enhancing its production capacity [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to 22.25 billion yuan and 24.49 billion yuan respectively, with an additional forecast for FY27 at 25.79 billion yuan [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 and FY26 have been revised to 0.17 yuan and 0.28 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for FY27 at 0.38 yuan [7]

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [晨Ta光bl生e_物Sto(c3k0A0n1d3Ra8n)k] 投资评级 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] Q1 业绩大增，反转趋势确立 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma公ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 17.16 亿元， 同比-0.92%；归母净利润 1.09 亿元，同比+183.69%；扣非归母净利润 9592 万元，同比+97.83%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 上次评级 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 收入表现平稳，多款产品销量创历史新高。分板块看，Q1 植提业务实 现收入 8.67 亿元，同比+13.78%；棉籽业务实现收入 7.60 亿元，同比 -9.49%。植提业务中，多款产品以量补价，辣椒红收入同比+7%，销 量快速增长，销售价格随成本相 ...

内需跟踪及展望：从挖机到非挖 20250427 摘要 • 工程机械行业显现见底信号，向上修复趋势明确。设备租赁价格和混凝土 机械价格已触底，设备利用率逐步修复，供应商投资回报率见底回升，前 期高杠杆客户还款接近尾声，预示行业周期反转。 • 中国挖掘机保有量约 180 万台，临近淘汰设备占比约 15%。二手机出口 加速清理存量设备，提升老旧设备占比，增加更新换代需求。挖掘机终端 需求结构去地产化，小型和大型挖掘机销量占比超 80%，需求转向高标准 农田、水利和新农村建设。 • 2025 年 1-4 月挖掘机市场表现良好，销量增速保持增长，延续行业见底 修复态势。预计全年国内挖掘机销量有望实现至少 20%的增长，更高增速 取决于后续政策推进情况。 • 非挖掘设备市场中，混凝土机械一季度已转正，汽车起重机降幅收窄，预 计二季度末接近转正。后周期设备复苏通常比挖掘机晚半年到一年，关注 混凝土机械和起重机械转正后的变化，或将增加主机企业利润弹性。 • 国内工程机械板块业绩边际改善显著，收入和利润增速均提升，弹性修复 使其成为 2025 年表现突出的部分。出口贡献板块收入占比超 50%，利润 贡献接近 70%，新兴市场需 ...

Group 1 - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/2026, with current trading at 26.9/11.0 times P/E and 0.9/0.8 times P/B for 2025/2026, raising the target price by 10.0% to HKD 1.43, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 13.3 billion, with a 2H24 revenue of CNY 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The cash EBITDA for 2024 is CNY 3 billion, representing a growth of approximately 20% [1] - The company’s milk yield continues to improve, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.6% to 12.8 tons per cow in 2024, and the herd size is expected to reach 491,000 by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company benefits from a decrease in feed costs by 16.7% and an improvement in milk yield, leading to a slight expansion of gross margin by 2.8 percentage points in 2024 [2] - Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company’s cash EBITDA increased by 20% due to improved gross margins [2] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in herd size, with 85-90% of the industry facing losses, and a continued decrease in herd size is expected into 2025 [3] Group 3 - The company is positioned well in the industry downturn, with a projected domestic raw milk supply gap of approximately high single digits to 10% in 2024, and potential stabilization of raw milk prices anticipated in 2025 [3] - The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and it is considered a favorable time for left-side investments [3]