投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,拥 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/30 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5245 | 5280 | 35 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 3829 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The strong PX market leads the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds flow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, with polyester leading the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing domestic PTA plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some domestic PX plants are under maintenance, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After a long - term slump, the price of overseas ethylene glycol has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East boosts market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch to polyethylene production on one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines in mid - February due to profit considerations. The supply contraction creates room for price increases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price on January 28, 2026, was 460.3 yuan/barrel, and on January 29, 2026, it was 472.5 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 12.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA - SC**: The value on January 28, 2026, was 2025.0 yuan/ton, and on January 29, 2026, it was 1898.3 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 126.66 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It was 1.6054 on January 28, 2026, and 1.5528 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.0525 [2] - **CFR China PX**: The price was 924 on January 28, 2026, and 921 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 3 [2] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It was 356 on January 28, 2026, and 337 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 19 [2] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 5370 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5332 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA Spot Price**: It was 5235 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5245 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: It was 369.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 413.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 44.7 yuan/ton [2] - **Disk Processing Fee**: It was 504.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 480.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 23.3 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 3970 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 3957 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 13.0 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG - Naphtha**: It was (159.45) yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and (158.64) yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.8 [2] - **MEG Inner - Market Price**: It was 3832 on January 28, 2026, and 3829 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained at 85.82% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **PTA Operating Rate**: It remained at 75.63% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **MEG Operating Rate**: It increased from 60.17% on January 28, 2026, to 60.66% on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.49% [2] - **Polyester Load**: It decreased from 81.96% on January 28, 2026, to 81.05% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.91% [2] 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: The price was 7055 on January 28, 2026, and 7030 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 25.0 [2] - **POY Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 13 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 31.0 [2] - **FDY150D/96F**: The price remained at 7220 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **FDY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (291) on January 28, 2026, to (297) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **DTY150D/48F**: The price remained at 8110 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **DTY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (107) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price was 6705 on January 28, 2026, and 6700 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 5 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 33 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 11.0 [2] - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price was 6010 on January 28, 2026, and 6000 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 10.0 [2] - **Chip Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (117) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 16.0 [2] 3.4 Product Sales Ratios - **Long - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 30% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Short - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 59% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Chip Sales Ratio**: It decreased from 70% on January 28, 2026, to 62% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 8% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th [2] - A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market strongly leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cyclical reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [2] - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester; India's PTA runs at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [2] - Two domestic PX plants are still under maintenance, and the shutdown of some reforming units in Zhejiang Petrochemical restricts aromatic raw materials. There are also planned shutdowns in the Middle East; South Korean plants have the intention to increase load or restart, and the current PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at about $150 [2] - The PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, significantly higher than the gasoline blending profit, prompting refineries to continuously favor aromatic extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high开工, domestic demand declines, and the production cuts of polyester factories have limited negative feedback on PTA, with bottle - chip profits expanding and short - fiber profits declining [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 5235 to 5245, a change of 10 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3835 to 3829, a change of - 6 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 5370 to 5332, a change of - 38 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3970 to 3957, a change of - 13 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6705 to 6700, a change of - 5 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from - 4 to - 18, a change of - 14 [2] - 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 48 to - 56, a change of - 8 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1405 to 1400, a change of - 5 [2] - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6443 to 6451, a change of 8 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 845 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 582 to 584, a change of 1 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3995 to 4000, a change of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15735 to 15880, a change of 145 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1407 to 1355, a change of - 51 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7300 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 339 to 333, a change of - 7 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures contract rose 32 to 6720. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were mainly stable, and the prices of traders fluctuated slightly with the futures price. Downstream demand was weak, and there was not much trading in the market [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6380 - 6430 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly, the cost - side support was average, most supply - side offers were stable, the market spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was mainly for rigid restocking, and the market negotiation focus rose slightly [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a change of - 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 60.00% to 55.00%, a change of - 5.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/28 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5225 | 5235 | 10 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3843 | 3835 | -8 | 短纤:短纤主力期货涨38到6748。现货市场:涤 | | PTA收盘价 | 5258 | 5370 | 112 | 纶短纤生产工厂价格偏强运行,贸易商价格跟随 | | MEG收盘价 | 3938 | 3970 | 32 | 期货价格微涨,下游采买意向差,场内成交谨慎 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6735 | 6705 | -30 | 。 1.56dtex*38mm半光本日(1. 4D)涤纶短纤华东 | | | | | | 市场价格在6580-6800现款现汇含税自提,华北 | | 短纤 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/29 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 446. 7 | 460. 3 | 13. 60 | 成交情况: PTA:中东地缘局势加剧,原油行情上涨,成本推涨 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 2011.8 | 2025. 0 | 13. 17 | PTA。PTA现货供大于求,临近月底,未闻现货成交, 日均基差参考报盘、递盘评估。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.6197 | 1. 6054 | -0. 0144 | | | | CFR中国PX | 903 | 924 | 21 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 330 | 356 | 26 | ...

周期反转的号角已经吹响，聪明资金悄然布局。 数据显示，2025年12月，石油和化工行业景气指数回升至100.91，环比上涨3.7个百分点，总体呈现复苏 迹象。值得注意的是，燃料加工业景气指数为114.45，环比上升19.77个百分点，显现出强劲反弹势头。 细分领域表现更加亮眼。在"减油增化"趋势推动下，炼化企业稳步推进转型升级。同时，传统石化品逐 步向高端化转型，国产替代加速，科技助力新兴产业崛起，新材料需求空间广阔。 今年以来，石化板块悄然走强。截至1月27日，石化ETF（159731）今年以来收益率已达11.82%，远超 沪深300指数1.64%的水平。更引人注目的是，该基金连续获得资金净流入，今年以来累计"吸金"达8亿 元，规模从去年底的2.45亿元迅速飙升至1月27日的10.45亿元，创下成立以来新高。 这一持续资金流入的背后，是市场对石化产业周期底部反转的强烈预期。 01 周期、政策与资金共振 首先，行业周期反转是最大驱动力。有研究机构指出，在基本面有所改善的背景下，化工板块的配置占 比在去年四季度出现触底回升。当前板块扩产周期基本结束，盈利仍处于周期底部。 华泰证券指出，2025年下半年以来化学原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide a unified industry investment rating. Instead, it gives trend judgments and investment suggestions for different varieties, including "看多" (Bullish), "震荡" (Sideways), and "震荡偏强" (Sideways with an upward bias). 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index**: In the short term, the adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend before the holiday, as the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm and market performance will be highly correlated with regulatory trends [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be noted [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price maintains a high - level sideways movement as the dollar index has declined, but the enthusiasm for buying copper has eased [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to move sideways as the industrial driving force is limited recently, but the decline of the dollar index supports the price [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, as the current price is near the cost line, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stable. The recent cold wave in North America has increased energy prices, which is not conducive to the resumption of overseas smelters. Zinc has a certain room for a supplementary rise [1]. - **Nickel**: In the short term, the nickel price is at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Supply concerns may continuously disrupt the market. In the long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures are in a high - level sideways movement. Supply - side disruptions are frequent, and spot trading is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is negative news, the increase in tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. In the pattern of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is still upward potential for tin. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions [1]. - **Precious Metals and New Energy**: - **Silver**: International uncertainties and the weakening dollar index support the price of precious metals. Due to factors such as spot shortages and falling inventories, there is a significant short - squeeze sentiment in the domestic market. The import window has opened significantly. It is recommended to control positions in single - side trading and pay attention to the inter - market arbitrage opportunities for the far - month contracts [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The macro - driving force has weakened slightly, but international uncertainties are still high, which may support the prices of platinum and palladium, and the price fluctuations may be large. In the long - term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. It is recommended to allocate platinum on dips or continue to pay attention to the [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of polysilicon and silicone decreased in December. The northwest region increased production while the southwest region decreased production [1]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: High production, high inventory, etc., suppress the price increase space. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. It is recommended to exit long single - side positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage. The upward pressure on iron ore is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The market is pessimistic about the end - point price of the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased their positions. The coking coal 05 contract broke through important support levels. In the future, the price may be gradually priced according to the Mongolian coal long - term contract cost. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: The purchasing rhythm of major consuming countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The domestic soybean - oil fundamentals are strong. Coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, creating a positive expectation gap. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". Future attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is no continuous driving force in the short - term fundamental aspect. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - **Corn**: The corn sales progress has passed half, and the inventories at ports and downstream are still low. With the replenishment of downstream enterprises and the profit - taking of long - positions before the holiday, there is a certain risk of price correction [1]. - **Soybeans**: The dry weather in Argentina may cause short - term weather speculation. The precipitation in February is expected to return to normal. With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the overall rebound of M05 is expected to be limited [1]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - environment. It has not broken through the sideways area. Short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebound, and the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas offer has still declined slightly, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the log futures and spot markets. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand, the production capacity still needs to be further released as the average slaughter weight has not decreased significantly [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified, and the cold wave in the United States has increased energy demand, which is beneficial to the price increase of crude oil and fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is relatively high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw - material cost has strong support, the synthetic rubber has risen significantly, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish, driving the upward movement of the natural - rubber market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom. Recently, the profit of private butadiene - styrene rubber plants has been seriously lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to have a wide - range sideways correction, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - **PTA and Short - fiber**: The strong PX market has led to the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of capital has flowed into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise of the entire chemical industry. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The speculative demand in the market has increased significantly [1]. - **Styrene**: The news of the shutdown of Middle Eastern styrene plants has led to a rapid rebound of the styrene futures price. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, the styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import of methanol is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading plants have stopped production, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. The freight in the inland area has increased due to the cold air, and the northwest enterprises have great pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase. The full - density plant of Zhong'an United has stopped production, and the linear - production ratio has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global PVC production capacity will be put into operation less, and the future expectation is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor. The export tax - rebate policy has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export in the future. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity [1]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the market sentiment will switch between fundamentals and emotions. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the futures price is expected to weaken. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

| | | | | 聚酯致据口报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/27 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 457. 3 | 446. 7 | -10. 60 | 成交情况: PTA:原油行情偏弱震荡,且下游聚酯工厂减产中, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 2114.8 | 2011. 8 | -102. 97 | PTA积累库存,PTA行情下跌,现货基差微幅下跌。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 6364 | 1. 6197 | -0. 0166 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 930 | 903 | -27 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 365 | 330 | -35 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 5438 | 5258 | -180.0 ...