Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 市场资金大幅流入，聚酯领涨化工板块 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：市场资金大幅流入，聚酯领涨化工板块 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | PX市场强势引领化工品上涨，化工板块资金大幅流入。在"周期反转"叙事推动下，市场大幅增持化工品配置，聚酯领涨整个化工板块。国内PTA产量 续增长，国内无新增PTA产能，现有装置需要维持高负荷以匹配聚酯增长；PTA加工费回升至500元。PX与石脑油价差维持在350美元以上。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 聚酯内需有所回落，聚酯工厂的减产对PTA形成一定负反馈，但影响有限，PTA消费量维持高位，加工费快速扩张。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存减少5万吨，下游聚酯工厂负反馈推动基差走弱。 | | 基差 | 偏多 | PTA利润明显扩张，PX维持搞利润。 | | 利润 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,拥 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/23 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5155 | 5285 | 130 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 3660 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及问第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVA -- PTA: PX市场强势引领化工品上涨,化工板块资金大幅 流入。在"周期反转"叙事推动下,市场大幅增持化 工品配置,聚酯领涨整个化工板块。国内PTA产量持续 增长,国内无新增PTA产能,现有装置需要维持高负荷 以匹配聚酯增长;印度PTA满产运行,新项目GMPL已采 购PX用于调试,进一步推升区域需求。国内两套PX装 料,中东亦有计划性停产;韩国装置虽有提负或重启 意向,当前PX-混合二甲苯价差维持约150美元。PX-石 脑油价差继续扩张,显著高于汽油调合收益,促使炼 厂持续倾向芳烃 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commercial aerospace** and **engineering machinery** industries, with a focus on **AI**, **renewable energy**, and **solid-state batteries**. Key Points on Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed as a new version of the "Star Wars" program, integrating technology and competition beyond the historical context of the US-Soviet rivalry [2][3]. - There is significant local government interest in commercial aerospace, surpassing previous focuses on low-altitude and deep-sea technologies [2]. - The sector is expected to combine aerospace, AI, new energy, and robotics, indicating a broad technological convergence [3]. - The growth of commercial aerospace is linked to a broader cycle of growth, including military and industrial sectors, with a notable increase in demand for AI-driven technologies [4][5]. Key Points on Engineering Machinery - The global leader in engineering machinery, **Caterpillar**, has a market capitalization exceeding **210 billion RMB**, while China's top three companies (Sany, XCMG, and Zoomlion) collectively hold a market share close to Caterpillar's [8][9]. - The Chinese companies are significantly undervalued, with a combined market cap of approximately **420 billion RMB**, only **20%** of Caterpillar's valuation [8][9]. - There is a notable increase in demand for mining machinery due to rising prices of metals like copper, gold, and aluminum, which is expected to drive growth in the sector [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of Sany Heavy Industry, highlighting its new management team and its significant overseas revenue contribution, which is projected to grow [10][11][12]. Insights on Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to reach a critical inflection point by **2027**, with expectations for small-scale production [21][22]. - Key drivers for the solid-state battery market include global regulations, policy direction, and new demand [21]. - The report identifies essential equipment for solid-state battery production, including steel powder electrode equipment and high-precision stacking machines [22][23]. - The market for equipment related to solid-state batteries is projected to exceed **6 billion RMB** by **2030**, with a rapid growth rate [23]. Additional Insights - The discussion on **space solar power** highlights the potential for deploying **100 GW** of solar energy in space, which could significantly impact the energy landscape [14][15]. - The feasibility of space-based power generation is supported by the advantages of continuous sunlight and lower operational costs compared to terrestrial systems [15][16]. - The need for advanced equipment and thinner silicon wafers for solar power generation in space is emphasized, with several companies identified as key players in this emerging market [16][17][19]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the commercial aerospace and engineering machinery sectors, emphasizing growth opportunities driven by technological advancements and market dynamics. The solid-state battery industry is also highlighted as a key area for future investment, with significant potential for growth and innovation.

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports a decrease in stock positions among public funds in Q4, with an increase in A-shares and a continued decline in Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 1: Public Fund Position Changes - In Q4, the overall stock position of public funds decreased, while A-share positions increased and Hong Kong stock positions continued to decline [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.2% in Q4, with the ChiNext Index down by 1.1% and the STAR Market down by 10.1% [2] - The median return of actively managed equity public funds dropped to -1.5%, marking the lowest quarterly return of the year [2] Group 2: Asset Scale and Composition - The total asset value of public funds increased from 38.1 trillion yuan to 39.5 trillion yuan in Q4, with stock assets slightly rising to over 9 trillion yuan [3] - The proportion of equity assets decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 22.9%, while bond assets increased by 0.6 percentage points to 53.4% [3] Group 3: Active Equity Fund Characteristics - The total value of actively managed equity funds decreased from 3.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with stock asset scale declining to 2.6 trillion yuan [4] - A-share positions rose from 71.7% to 72.3%, remaining at a relatively low level over the past decade [4] - The net redemption scale of actively managed equity funds decreased to 128.2 billion yuan in Q4 [4] Group 4: Heavyweight Stock Configuration - The concentration of holdings in leading companies decreased, with the market value of the top 100 companies held by actively managed equity funds dropping from 60.3% to 58.8% [5] - The top 50 companies' market value share fell from 47.7% to 46.7% [5] - The positions in the ChiNext increased by 1.2 percentage points to 24.9%, while the STAR Market positions decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 16.7% [5] Group 5: Sector Adjustments - Increased allocations were seen in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, and non-bank financials, while reductions occurred in consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7] - Non-ferrous metals saw a 2.3 percentage point increase in positions, supported by strong industry fundamentals [6] - The communication sector's position rose by 2 percentage points, while consumer electronics saw a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [7] Group 6: ETF Fund Developments - The total asset value of public ETFs rose from 6.6 trillion yuan to 7.1 trillion yuan, with stock assets accounting for 65% [8] - The total asset value of stock ETFs reached 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [8] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by multiple factors including industry hotspots and improved liquidity [9] - The market is anticipated to perform strongly at the beginning of the year, with trading volumes reaching new highs [9] Group 8: Investment Recommendations - Suggested areas for investment include AI technology, overseas expansion opportunities, cyclical reversals, high dividend stocks, and sectors with promising annual report highlights [10]

点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金四季度仓位变动：股票仓位有所下降；A股仓位上升，港股继续下降 2025年四季度，A股整体窄幅震荡。11月中上旬，受中美关系阶段性缓和与"十五五"政策预期带动，上证指数一度刷新年内高点；其后在美联储降息节奏 反复、市场对AI估值泡沫担忧升温等因素扰动下，风险偏好有所回落；至12月中旬跨年行情启动，市场再度走强。总体来看，四季度上证指数上涨 2.2%；前期表现强势的成长风格回调，科创50下跌10.1%，跌幅靠前，创业板指收跌1.1%；偏大盘的上证50上涨1.4%而沪深300微跌0.2%；偏中小盘的中 证1000和中证2000分别上涨0.3%和3.6%；红利风格有所表现，中证红利指数上涨0.8%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数为-1.5%， 较上季度显著下降，单季收益为年内最低。 公募基金资产规模继续扩张，权益资产占比下降，债券资产占比回升。 公募基金整体资产规模连续三个季度扩张，四季度资产总值由上季度的38.1万亿元 升至39.5万亿元。其中，股票资产规模小幅上升至9万亿元以上，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度下降0.7个百分点至22.9%；债券资产占比较上季度上升 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2026年1月19日--1月24日）交易理想国知识星球共发布35条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 合成橡胶为何突然"暴走"？ 合成橡胶（BR）是绝对的主角。 资金像潮水一样涌进来，大部分合约直接被买到了涨停板，做多的情绪非常高涨，根本不给空头反应的时 间。 天然橡胶（RU和NR）是被动跟涨。 在BR的强力带动下，它们也不得不"营业"，价格重心被明显抬了上去。但明眼人都知道，这波行情的 发动机是BR。 这里出现了一个非常关键的信号：价差剧烈收缩。随着BR价格暴力拉升，20号胶与合成橡胶之间的价差（NR-BR）大幅收窄。目前这个价 差已经被压到了100元附近，这是一个非常极端的水平。 这意味着，传统上认为天然橡胶比合成橡胶贵的逻辑，正在受到巨大挑战。如果价差进一步缩小甚至倒挂（合成比天然还贵），那很多基 于价差的交易策略就得重新思考了。 二、为什么涨？核心驱动力在供应端 这种级别的暴涨，肯定不是无缘无故的。在我看来，核心的驱动力来自供应端受到了"双重打击"。 第一重打击，也是最硬 ...

这些政策信号意义重大，它可能意味着供应端无序扩张的阶段临近尾声。与之相呼应的是行业数据：企业扩张意愿正在减弱。2025年前 三季度，石化化工上市公司资本开支同比减少10.1%，在建工程规模收缩。当行业处于长期低价、扩张停止且政策推动出清时，其"否极 泰来"的潜力自然会吸引资金的目光。这也能解释为何股市化工板块及关联ETF同步走强，并进一步带动了商品市场的热度。 短期"催化剂"强化上涨叙事 02 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期商品市场热点轮动。继贵金属和有色金属之后，化工板块开始吸引资金关注。以1月22日为例，化工期货几乎全线上涨，合成橡胶、乙 二醇和苯乙烯涨幅均超4%。资金流入迹象明显，仅PTA和苯乙烯两个品种就流入近17亿元。这引发了一个核心问题：化工板块的集体走强， 是趋势反转的开始，还是短期情绪的宣泄？ 市场关注点为何转向化工？ 01 一轮行情的启动，通常需要一个清晰的叙事逻辑。 当前市场关注的核心，是一个关于 "周期反转" 的故事。 这个故事的前半段是漫长的行业低谷。过去四年，化工行业面临双重压力：前期资本开支扩张导致产能严重过剩，同时下游如房地产等 领域需求 ...

浙商证券（601878）认为，公司规模化优势显著，通过持续的降本增效，不断提高核心竞争力，作为行 业龙头有望受益于周期反转充分释放盈利弹性。该行指出，原奶价格上行一方面将带动公司成母牛公允 价值回升，另一方面公司原奶业务具备高成长弹性。此外，肉牛周期回升下，公司成犊牛及育成牛生物 资产公允价值有望提升，同时带动公司淘汰牛价格上涨、淘牛收入增长。 优然牧业(09858)反弹逾9%，截至发稿，涨9.15%，报4.65港元，成交额6777.97万港元。 消息面上，近日，优然牧业发布公告，拟按每股3.92港元配售股份，较1月15日收市价4.3港元折让 8.84%，所得款项净额23.3亿港元。公告称，公司将先旧后新配售2.9925亿股，卖方(博源，公司控股股 东伊利的全资附属公司)另将认购2.9925亿股新股份。紧随完成后，控股股东于公司持股由33.93%增加 至36.07%。国泰海通证券认为，增发募资降本增效，大股东定增彰显信心。 ...