Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of the warming sentiment in the commodity market and the rising cost side, the price of manganese - silicon has recently shown a volatile upward trend. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in its supply - demand pattern, the upward momentum of the price is limited, and the subsequent trend is likely to turn into a volatile one. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes in the manganese ore segment [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since December last year, the manganese - silicon futures price has shown a volatile upward trend. The price of the main contract once exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.6% from the low. The spot price also rose synchronously, with the increase range in the mainstream areas being 120 - 300 yuan/ton [2] Cost Factor - The recent continuous strengthening of the manganese - silicon price is driven by two factors: the warm sentiment in the overall commodity market and the significant upward movement of upstream costs. Since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly. Against this backdrop, the price of manganese ore has also increased. Overseas mainstream manganese ore suppliers have raised their export quotes. The increase in the cost side has directly pushed up the production cost of manganese - silicon. It is expected that the iron ore price will remain firm, and the cost side's support for the manganese - silicon price will continue [3][4] Supply Situation - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon has not improved substantially, as evidenced by the high inventory in enterprises and the slow de - stocking process. As of the week of January 9, the total inventory of domestic manganese - silicon enterprises was 382,500 tons, still at a historical high. The production loss of manganese - silicon enterprises has been narrowing, and the production enthusiasm has gradually stabilized. The new production capacity of the manganese - silicon industry has continued to be put into operation. In 2025, the average monthly production capacity of manganese - silicon was 1.9082 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.23%. In 2026, the to - be - invested production capacity of manganese - silicon is 3.0865 million tons. If this batch of production capacity is put into operation, the industry's over - supply situation will intensify [5][6] Demand Situation - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for manganese - silicon has improved marginally. As of the week of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills have rebounded, and the production enthusiasm of short - process steel mills has also increased. Driven by this, the domestic steel output has rebounded from the low level, and the demand for manganese - silicon has also improved. However, the subsequent growth space of manganese - silicon demand is worrying due to limited profit - repair of steel mills and the traditional off - season in the steel market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series products still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - policy is in a window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is expected to gradually enter the off - season, and after the recovery of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory replenishment of steel mills and the rhythm of molten iron production [5] - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, attention should be paid to the short - term high - volatility risks. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations [8][9] - The positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of coal production capacity reduction have driven the upward movement of coking coal prices. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] - Industrial silicon is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [17][20] - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash market is still weak due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [23][25] 3. Summary of Each Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.126%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57,766 tons, a net increase of 1,833 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.6915 million lots, an increase of 3,518 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,210 yuan/ton and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.090%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173,103 tons, with no change. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4489 million lots, an increase of 8,625 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,280 yuan/ton and 3,290 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shanghai price up 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. Rebar production increased counter - seasonally, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series products oscillated at the bottom and were sensitive to news. Attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil destocking and "dual - carbon" policies [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 821.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 9,381 lots to 662,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 1.002 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.50 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.76% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline. The shipments from Brazil decreased significantly, and those from Rio Tinto and BHP among the major mines decreased. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. The daily molten iron production was 229.5 tons, and the utilization rate of blast furnaces increased. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory replenishment and molten iron production [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 14, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) closed up 0.07% at 5,920 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,940 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5,690 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton [7] - The manganese silicon price has been oscillating after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 6,000 yuan/ton and 6,250 yuan/ton and the support at 5,800 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price has returned to range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 5,850 yuan/ton and 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at 5,500 yuan/ton [7] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has led to the upward movement of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market trends are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 14, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) oscillated and closed up 0.46% at 1,196.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanxi low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Meng 5 refined coal all increased to varying degrees, with premiums on the futures market. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.37% at 1,738.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke decreased and remained unchanged respectively, with discounts on the futures market [11] - The coking coal price is in a rebound cycle, with resistance at around 1,260 yuan/ton and support at 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/ton. The coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through, the resistance is at around 1,850 yuan/ton, and the support is at 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton [12] Strategy Views - The strong coking coal price was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of coal production capacity reduction. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, up 1.39% (+120). The weighted open interest decreased by 10,310 lots to 368,426 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 445 yuan/ton and 95 yuan/ton respectively [16] - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (-60). The weighted open interest decreased by 930 lots to 87,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 5,805 yuan/ton [18] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon production in December remained stable, and the supply - side improvement was limited. The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was expected to be weak. If the production cut or shutdown plan of a polysilicon leading enterprise is implemented, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will deteriorate. The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure [17] - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustments have affected the polysilicon price. The spot price has increased, but downstream观望 sentiment is strong. If the production cut or shutdown plan is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main glass contract closed at 1,096 yuan/ton on Wednesday, with no change. The prices of large - size glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 134,800,000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55,518,000 boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 25,090 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 8,485 lots [22] - The main soda ash contract closed at 1,222 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 0.83% (+10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164,400 tons (+2.37%) to 1,572,700 tons, with increases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3,272 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 4,260 lots [24] Strategy Views - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual spot transactions, and it is recommended to wait and see [23] - The soda ash supply is stable, but the demand from the photovoltaic and float glass industries has decreased. The enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillation", "oscillation with an upward bias", and "oscillation with a downward bias" [5][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - environmental impacts. It concludes that most products will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - to - medium term, with some showing a slight upward or downward bias [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Spot inventory is decreasing, and oils and fats are oscillating narrowly. - **Logic**: The commercial inventory of three major oils has decreased, but the impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices has weakened, and the supply - demand relationship in the oil market is complex. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Weather in Argentina has drawn attention, and both soybean meal and rapeseed meal have risen slightly. - **Logic**: International soybean markets face competition, and domestic pre - holiday supply and demand are both weak. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Corn purchase has restarted, and prices are oscillating within a range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are stable, and the purchase policy provides short - term support. - **Outlook**: Corn prices will oscillate, with a possible decline before the Spring Festival and a rise after [10][11] 3.1.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures contract has rebounded. - **Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. - **Outlook**: Hog prices will oscillate, with near - month contracts at a low level and far - month contracts supported by production - reduction expectations [12][13][14] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Positive capital sentiment continues, and rubber prices are rising. - **Logic**: Driven by overall commodity sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it can be treated as bullish [17][18] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the upward trend of natural rubber. - **Logic**: The improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but there is short - term pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is pressure and may need adjustment; in the medium term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [19][20] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues. - **Logic**: Domestic demand is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area. - **Outlook**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [20][21] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. - **Logic**: Global and domestic sugar supplies are both increasing. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it will oscillate with a downward bias [21] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by capital and macro factors, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are a mix of positives and negatives, and the market is currently driven by capital. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate with an upward bias [22] 3.1.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has improved, and offset paper is performing strongly. - **Logic**: Paper mills have raised prices, and the market sentiment has warmed up. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [23][24] 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: There are no significant contradictions, and it is recommended to operate within a range. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there is support at certain price levels. - **Outlook**: From January to February, supply pressure will ease marginally, and logs will mainly oscillate within a range [25] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [26][45][58] 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 6, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a positive performance, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a 5 - day increase of 0.73%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [184][186]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 商品市场情绪偏多，橡胶维持震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前云南产区停割。海南产区西线、南部地区部分胶林正常割胶，新鲜胶水干含处于偏低水平，岛内可收胶量较为有限，受到生产利润有 所恢复提振，部分加工厂存在加价抢收情绪。（2）泰国产区：泰国整体天气趋于正常，泰柬地缘紧张局势有缓解迹象，东北部大部分区 域处于割胶高产阶 | | | | 段，杯胶价格相对坚挺；南部产区供应逐步上量，拖拽胶水价格下滑。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气整体良好，产区割胶作业未受到扰动，原料供应稳定 | | | | 在常规状态，虽备货需求暂未启动，但是本土轮胎厂刚需采购支撑因素仍在，故原料价格原料价格保持坚挺。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （ ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 商品市场情绪偏暖，螺纹期价触底回升，但供需格局并未好转，螺纹产量小幅回升但依旧处于 年内低位，低供应未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢厂利润改善，后续存回升预期。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现弱稳，高频需求指标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业也未好转，淡 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating." The report suggests that the industry may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material prices have strong support, the mid - stream inventory has increased slightly, the downstream demand remains stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. With the improvement of short - term commodity market sentiment, the natural rubber market may show a relatively strong oscillating performance in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan first fell and then rose, while in Hainan, they were adjusted downward due to weather disturbances. In Thailand, the glue price in the south increased, and the cup - rubber price in the northeast decreased. In Vietnam, raw material prices were relatively firm due to typhoon - induced rain [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese tire sample enterprises was stable, and it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week, with potential drag from individual enterprises' maintenance plans [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, with an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory and a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory. The warehouse - receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber also increased [3][108]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is bullish. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread both widened [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber, domestic concentrated latex, and Yunnan whole - milk rubber was in a loss state, but the loss of Yunnan whole - milk rubber delivery profit improved [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The short - term Sino - US tariff policy has been postponed, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term market may maintain a relatively strong oscillating performance [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage, while paying attention to production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely this week. They first fell and then rose. As of November 7, the RU main contract closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 0.60% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,035 yuan/ton, down 1.67% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices showed an oscillating performance [9]. - **Position**: The RU position was low, and the NR position decreased. The RU - NR spread rebounded [16][23][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting rubber production [40]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices were firm. The prices of glue and cup - rubber in Thailand and glue in China showed different trends [50]. - **Production in Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). China's natural rubber imports from January to September were 4.7172 million tons (+19.65%) [73][92]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social "inventory" increased slightly. As of November 2, 2025, the social inventory of natural "rubber" was 1.056 million tons, and the inventory in Qingdao also increased [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: Tire capacity utilization remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization of full - steel "tire" sample enterprises was 65 "37%", and that of semi - "steel" tire sample enterprises was 72.89%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next week [118]. " - **Down "stream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventory in Shandong decreased slightly [119]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in October, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [137]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, tire exports were 7.28 million tons (+5.0%) [139][146]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk " "rubber" was in a loss state [148]. - **Futures - Spot Spread "**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [169].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rubber market shows a volatile performance. As the commodity market approaches the September delivery, it returns to the fundamental logic. The previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled down, leading to weak commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a volatile and weak trend. The recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 price is 15720, up 45 from the previous value; NR主力 is 12600, up 75; BR主力 is 11775, up 60 [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is 316.5 yen/kg, up 2.7; Sicom TF is 170.8 cents/kg, unchanged [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 is 1000, up 45; RU2605 - RU2601 is 95, down 10; NR主力 - 次主力 is - 20, down 70; BR主力 - 次主力 is 20, up 10 [3]. - **Futures Spreads**: RU - NR is 3120, down 30; RU - BR is 3945, down 15; NR - BR is 825, up 15 [3]. - **Cross - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 42, down 12; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 47, up 11 [3]. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand**: Glue price is 54.70 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg, down 0.15 [3][5]. - **Hainan and Yunnan**: Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole - milk is 13200 yuan/ton, down 200; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk is 14200 yuan/ton, up 100 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Thailand is 929, up 55; Hainan is 640, unchanged [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and No.20 Rubber Gross Profits**: Thailand No.20 rubber is - 189, unchanged; domestic 9710 is 250, unchanged [3]. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk is 14750, unchanged; Vietnam 3L is 14900, up 50; Thai mixed is 14620, up 90; Malaysian mixed is 14570, up 90 [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard is 12903, up 90; domestic standard No.2 is 13850, unchanged [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11750, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12300, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 11300, up 100 [3]. Overseas Spot - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF is 1815, up 20; Malaysian standard CIF is 1810, up 25; Indian standard CIF is 1735, up 15 [3]. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed is 100, down 90; RU - old whole - milk is - 30, unchanged; RU - Vietnam 3L is - 180, down 50 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 568, down 70; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is 6, down 70; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 532, down 105 [3]. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, up 5; Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed is 280, down 40; domestic standard No.2 - Thai mixed is - 770, down 90 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: Thailand's raw material glue price is 54.7 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 128.5 tons, up 0.75 tons, an increase of 0.6%; dark - colored rubber social total inventory is 80.6 tons, up 1.2%; light - colored rubber social total inventory is 47.9 tons, down 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month - on - month and 7.01 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month - on - month and down 7.81 percentage points year - on - year [3].