Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and rose, with Wind All A Index increasing by 1.89% and a trading volume of 2.27 trillion yuan [9] - The communication sector led the gains, with the CSI 1000 Index up by 2.26%, CSI 500 Index up by 2.02%, CSI 300 Index up by 1.63%, and SSE 50 Index up by 1.45% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [9] - The market is entering a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for short-term trading [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed positive movement, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.14% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 1130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The 10-year treasury yield has fallen below the 1.8% mark, with low expectations for further rate cuts and concerns over inflation data impacting the bond market [10] - The PMI price index is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI anticipated [10] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market experienced fluctuations, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 61.3 and the platinum-palladium spread decreasing to 376 USD/oz [11] - U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, which may alleviate market concerns about aggressive tightening [11] - Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region continue to pose risks, impacting market predictions for precious metals [11]

Report Core View - The central bank's reverse repurchase scale reached 1180.9 billion yuan this week, with abundant liquidity. Moderate inflation, negative PPI growth, and a reasonable and abundant capital supply support Treasury bond futures. However, the net supply of 10-year Treasury bonds has increased, and the bond supply bears have rebounded. The market is highly sensitive to negative factors, with rumors of a downward adjustment of the growth target and the central bank providing MLF funds to city commercial banks. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the capital supply and the impact of the flattening of the yield curve on asset allocation [2] Data Charts - The report presents data charts on Treasury bond yields, capital rates, Treasury bond term spreads, Treasury bond futures positions, Treasury bond futures trading volumes, Treasury bond futures basis, Treasury bond futures inter - period spreads, and Treasury bond futures cross - variety spreads, covering different time ranges and maturities such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds [3][5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - 1 - month official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back below the boom - bust line, with a decline in manufacturing market demand; construction and service business activity indices were weak; the Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure; the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year; the Wande All - A Index was slightly weak this week, and capital interest rates fell compared to last week; treasury bond futures rose overall, and may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term [39] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, most treasury bond futures main contracts showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The 30 - year variety was strong. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.63% for the whole week, the 10 - year rose 0.12%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.06% [5] - As of February 6, compared with January 30, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted downward overall, with the ultra - long end shifting down slightly more. The 2 - year yield dropped 2 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 2 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 4 BP to 2.25% [7] 3.2 January Manufacturing PMI Data - January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back in the contraction range, with large enterprises continuing to expand and medium - and small - sized enterprises' prosperity declining [10] - The production index was 50.6% and the new order index was 49.2%, indicating continued expansion in production but a decline in market demand. The procurement volume index was 48.7%, falling below the boom - bust line [13] - The new export order index was 47.8% and the import index was 47.3%. The new export order index declined compared to December [16] - The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, both expanding compared to the previous month. The average value of the South China Industrial Products Index rose 4.4% month - on - month and fell 4.75% year - on - year [18] - The raw material inventory index was 47.4% and the finished product inventory index was 48.6%. Inventory remained stable, and the profits of large - scale manufacturing enterprises increased in 2025 [21] - The manufacturing employment index was 48.1%, with little change in the employment prosperity level. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%, indicating a decline in future prosperity expectations [24] 3.3 January Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index Data - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%. The construction business activity index was 48.8%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month [27] - The construction new order index was 40.1%, the employment index was 41.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 49.8%, all showing a decline [30] - The service new order index was 47.1%, the employment index was 47.0%, and the business activity expectation index was 57.1%, slightly rising. The input price index was 49.7% and the sales price index was 48.9%. Financial and insurance industries were active, while the real estate industry was weak [33] 3.4 Capital Interest Rate and Market Operation - This week, capital interest rates fell compared to last week. DR001 dropped to 1.275%, DR007 dropped to 1.46%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%. On February 4, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing on the same day [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined. The yields to maturity of 2 - 7Y bonds dropped by about 2 - 3bp, and the yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively to 1.80% and 2.22%. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rising by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the market's expectations of pre - holiday reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have cooled, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [9][100] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased, while the open interests all decreased. The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. [13][30] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: The "14th Five - Year Plan"'s first central No. 1 document was released, focusing on rural revitalization. The central bank carried out 800 billion yuan of 3 - month repurchase operations and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan. There were important phone calls between China and the US leaders, emphasizing issues such as the Taiwan issue. In the US, the government's partial shutdown ended, but the employment market showed weakness, with a significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims and a sharp decline in job vacancies. Iran and the US held nuclear - issue negotiations. [33][34][35] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Price Difference Changes**: The yield spread between 10Y and 5Y and the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y, the spread between TF and TS main contracts, the 10 - year contract inter - period spread, and the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed; the 30 - year contract inter - period spread, the 2 - year contract inter - period spread, and the spread between TF and TS main contracts fluctuated. [43][49][53] - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T - bond futures main contract decreased. [66] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell back to around 1.46% and fluctuated. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined, with the 10Y and 30Y yields to maturity falling by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively. The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond yield spread narrowed, while the 30 - year treasury bond yield spread widened. [68][73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.0055 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.7615 trillion yuan due, and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan in repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 65.6 billion yuan. [79] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 169.9266 billion yuan, the total repayment was 42.3261 billion yuan, and the net financing was 127.6005 billion yuan. [83] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9590, with a cumulative increase of 88 basis points this week. The spread between the RMB offshore and on - shore exchange rates narrowed. The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly. [89][92][97] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In January, the prosperity levels of China's manufacturing and service industries both declined, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range, but the industrial structure continued to improve. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year - on - year in December, and the annual profits achieved positive growth. The unexpected decline in the January PMI data indicates that the current fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, and the endogenous driving force of the economy needs to be further boosted. [100] - **Overseas Situation**: The US employment market remains weak, with the number of job vacancies in December dropping to the lowest level since 2020 and the number of layoffs increasing slightly. The market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts have cooled. [100] - **Market Outlook**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to maintain a loose liquidity environment. The market risk appetite has declined significantly, and some funds have flowed into the bond market. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the downward space for yields is limited, and it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [100]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.181%, UK 4.558%, France 3.445%, Germany 2.842%, Italy 3.468%, Spain 3.221%, Switzerland 0.244%, Greece 3.450%, Japan 2.231%, Brazil 6.180%, China 1.810%, Australia 4.857%, New Zealand 4.535% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.452%, UK 3.653%, Germany 2.090%, Japan 1.280%, Italy 2.243%, China (1Y yield) 1.318%, Australia 4.286% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.272, South Africa zar 16.309, Korean won 1463.600, Thai baht 31.802, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB are: on - shore RMB 6.938, off - shore RMB 6.941, RMB central parity rate 6.957, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.806 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6798.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48908.720, Nasdaq 22540.590, Mexican stock index 68858.280, UK stock index 10309.220, France CAC 8238.170, Germany DAX 24491.060, Spanish stock index 17746.300, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53818.040, Hang Seng Index 26885.240, Shanghai Composite Index 4075.917, Taiwan stock index 31801.270, South Korean stock index 5163.570, Indian stock index 8103.879, Thai stock index 1346.230, Malaysian stock index 1731.020, Australian stock index 9154.855, emerging - economy stock index 1507.530 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3561.790, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.919, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 291.120, US high - yield credit - bond index 2927.790, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.450, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1846.721 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4075.92, 4670.42, 3059.01, 3260.28, and 8146.11 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.64%, - 0.60%, - 0.33%, - 1.55%, and - 1.84% [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.08, 11.64, 36.92, 27.25, and 19.00 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.02, - 0.68, - 0.24, and - 0.09 [4] - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a环比 change of 0.13, and that of Germany DAX is 2.42 with a环比 change of 0.04 [4] - The latest fund - flow values for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 909.73, - 607.84, (not available), - 237.79, and - 34.01 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 447.20, - 349.02, (not available), - 69.06, and - 76.03 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the SME board, and ChiNext are 21762.20, 5504.33, 1479.97, 4377.19, and 5522.89 respectively, with环比 changes of - 3047.51, - 855.86, - 218.85, - 414.09, and - 1233.00 [5] - The basis and basis percentage of IF, IH, and IC are - 5.22 (- 0.11%), 2.39 (0.08%), and - 25.91 (- 0.32%) respectively [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in treasury - bond futures are 108.32, 105.91, 108.33, and 105.94 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.08%, and 0.04% [5] - The current R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market are 1.3926%, 1.5522%, and 1.5805% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. Although the upward momentum is insufficient due to the low possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term, there is still strong support because of the expected loose monetary and credit environment in the future [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation" with the core logic being the reduced possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "weakening" and a medium - term view of "fluctuation", with a reference view of "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. With the announcement of the new Fed Chairman candidate, the expectation of a hawkish shift in Fed monetary policy has increased. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low, weakening the upward momentum. However, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak - biased", and the overall view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that although the manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand and a future loose monetary and credit environment that provides strong support for Treasury bond futures, due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak - biased | Oscillation consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation consolidation - **Core Logic**: The Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand, which is consistent with the weak performance of December's consumption, investment, and credit data. This means that the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

Group 1 - European government bonds declined, following the downward trend of U.S. Treasuries, as traders reduced bets on U.S. interest rate cuts [1][6] - Short-term German bond yields increased more than long-term yields [2][7] - German bonds faced pressure ahead of the issuance of debt maturing in 2035 [3][8] Group 2 - Market updates indicate that German bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.87% [5][10] - German bond futures fell by 24 points to 127.93 [5][10] - The yield on Italy's 10-year bonds increased by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the Italy-Germany bond spread remained stable at 62 basis points [5][10] - French 10-year bond yields rose by 3 basis points to 3.45% [5][10] - The yield on 10-year UK bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 4.50% [5][10]

国债期货日报 2026/2/2 行业消息 | | 周一国债现券收益率涨跌不一，7Y以下到期收益率变动幅度在1bp以内，10Y、30Y到期收益 | | --- | --- | | | 率分别变动0.1、-1.1bp左右至1.81%、2.25%。周一国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TF、T主力合约 | | | 分别下跌0.01%、0.02%、0.03%，TL主力合约上涨0.18%。DR007加权利率回落至1.49%附 | | | 近震荡。国内基本面端，我国1月制造业、服务业景气水平双双回落，制造业PMI重回收缩区 | | | 间，但产业结构持续改善，新兴产业PMI均位于荣枯线上。12月全国规上工企业利润同比 | | | 5.3%，全年利润实现正增长，扭转连续三年下行趋势。海外方面，美国总统特朗普正式提名前 | | 观点总结 | 美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，沃什政策主张更侧重通过缩表控制通胀，市场对美联 | | | 储降息预期降温，避险情绪下行。美国联邦政府陷入部分"停摆"状态，新拨款法案仍待表决 | | | 通过。综合来看，美联储主席换任虽引发市场巨震，但对国内债市的直接影响较为有限。权益 | | | 市场波动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of government bond futures on February 2, with mixed results across different maturities [1] - The 30-year main contract increased by 0.18%, indicating a rise in long-term bond prices [1] - The 10-year main contract decreased by 0.03%, suggesting a slight decline in mid-term bond prices [1] - The 5-year main contract fell by 0.02%, reflecting a minor drop in prices for this maturity [1] - The 2-year main contract remained essentially unchanged, indicating stability in short-term bond prices [1]