12月22日晚间，上期所发布公告，针对白银期货相关合约出台多项风险防范措施，内容涵盖调整交易限额、调整平今仓交易手续费等。分析人士认为，此举旨在 为市场降温，引导理性交易，投资者在交易时应注意控制风险。 上期所出手降温 具体来看，上期所宣布，自12月24日（即12月23日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银期货AG2602合约的日内开仓交易的最大数 量为10000手。实际控制关系账户组日内开仓交易的最大数量按照单个客户执行。 在另一条公告中，上期所还对白银期货相关合约交易手续费做出了调整。上期所公告表示，自2025年12月24日交易（即12月23日晚夜盘）起，白银期货AG2602合约 日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之二点五。白银期货AG2604合约日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之零点五。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达指出，上期所此次对白银期货AG2602合约实施日内开仓量限制，是其在价格持续飙升、市场交易活跃度显著提升的背景下，出于防范风 险、抑制过度投机的考虑所采取的一项针对性措施。 近日，国内白银期货主力合约也连续创下历史新高。这种快速上涨容易积聚风险，交易所通过 ...

中信建投金属行业首席王介超认为，黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格大幅飙升，锡、铜、铝等工业金属 亦表现强势。一面是充裕的流动性，一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。另外， 基础原材料对经济发展的重要性越来越被相关国家重视，甚至启用关税的手段获得这类产品，加剧了市 场的区域性缺口，进一步推动价格的上行。 12月22日早盘，国内外黄金、白银期货继续走高。现货白银首次站上69美元/盎司，今年迄今累涨近 139%；现货黄金首次站上4400美元/盎司，今年迄今累涨近68%。 消息面上，市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续升温，以及随着圣诞假期和新年假期的临近，地缘不确 定性增加，为金价提供支撑。 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超认为，美联储降息预期构成贵金属价格上涨的核心支撑，但地缘局势缓和 压制了涨幅。白银价格上涨幅度超过黄金，白银价格弹性远高于黄金，且白银整体流动性相对较小，大 资金涌入易放大白银价格的波动。中长期看，白银工业需求例如绿色能源、人工智能领域的故事仍有潜 力，但前提是能度过短期的市场泡沫。在全球央行购金、美元走弱、外汇储备"多元化"需求以及实际利 率预期下行的背景下，金银比有望进一步收敛，白银或 ...

摘要周五(12月19日)现货黄金多头获利出逃，金价高位急刹车回吐涨幅，最终收涨0.17%，报4338.53美 元/盎司，周线累计上涨0.91%，整体来看，当前金价回落更偏向于高位整理而非趋势反转。通胀降温与 降息预期构成中长期核心支撑，而地缘不确定性持续为黄金提供避险溢价，短期黄金多头结构未改。 周五(12月19日)现货黄金多头获利出逃，金价高位急刹车回吐涨幅，最终收涨0.17%，报4338.53美元/盎 司，周线累计上涨0.91%，整体来看，当前金价回落更偏向于高位整理而非趋势反转。通胀降温与降息 预期构成中长期核心支撑，而地缘不确定性持续为黄金提供避险溢价，短期黄金多头结构未改。 从技术结构来看，黄金行情整体仍维持明显的多头格局。价格运行在关键均线之上，高点与低点不断抬 升，显示趋势尚未被破坏。 金价稳守100周期指数均线之上，中期上升通道保持完整。 RSI运行在中轴上方，虽有回落但仍处于强势区间，表明多头优势尚存。布林带继续张口，暗示行情仍 具备进一步扩展空间。上方4350美元附近构成短线阻力，该位置对应布林带上轨区域。 若黄金价格有效突破，或重新测试4381美元历史高位，并进一步指向4400美元整数关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain high. However, the opening of positions by Guangzhou Futures Exchange and speculative investors may cause price fluctuations, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait and see or mainly buy call options in the short - term [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Information - **Price Changes on December 18, 2025**: London gold spot rose 0.1% to $4333.58 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $66.43 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4363.80 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $66.58 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) rose 0.1% to 980.5 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) rose 0.1% to 15521 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: Gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.8 yuan per gram on December 18, with a - 2.2% change from the previous day. Silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 26 yuan per kilogram, with a - 23.5% change [5]. Position and Inventory Information - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of December 2, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 261331 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 43771 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 217560 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory decreased 0.01% to 91716 kilograms on December 18, 2025, while SHFE silver inventory increased 0.03% to 912164 kilograms [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Market Index Information - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06 on December 18, 2025, with a 0.01% change. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.29% to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.16% [5]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On December 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.33% to 980.5 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 3.44% to 15512 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US November inflation rate was 2.7%, lower than market expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8%, the lowest since March 2020. The data increased expectations of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank remained unchanged and sent a hawkish signal, and the US dollar index was under pressure. Geopolitical tensions also supported precious metal prices [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-18 宏观与地缘变量共振，⾦稳银涨 宏观宽松与地缘不确定性⽀撑贵⾦属，⾦稳银涨格局延续。⻩⾦在⾼位保 持稳定，⽩银在资⾦推动下加速上⾏并触及66美元，短线波动放⼤但中期 ⽅向未改。 研究员： 重点资讯： 1） 美国正在考虑的制裁选项包括针对用于运输俄罗斯石油的所谓" 影子船队"油轮，以及促成相关交易的贸易商。这些措施正在筹备 中，以备俄罗斯总统普京拒绝与乌克兰达成提议的和平协议时动用， 最早或本周启动。 2） 德国制造业成为拖累因素，产出指数跌至49.4，结束了连续九个 月的增长态势。制造业PMI降至47.7，连续第二个月位于收缩区间。 法国制造业出现积极信号，PMI升至50.6，创40个月新高，制造业产 出指数也从11月的45.0大幅回升至49.7，为四个月高位。 3） 美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，将芬太尼列为"大规模杀伤 性武器"，此举极大地扩展了美国政府打击这种合成阿片类药物非法 贩运的权限。该药物每年造成数以万计的美国人因过量使用而死亡。 价格逻辑： 宏观与地缘变量共振延续，金价进入高位再定价阶段。美国通 ...

在美联储决议公布前，市场大概率维持区间震荡。应该轻仓区间操作，做好突破的准备工作，严格风控。 阻力：4218-4230 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 影响因素： 昨日被视为下任美联储主席潜在人选的哈塞特表示，提前制定长期利率计划是"不负责任"的。这番言论被市场解读为对未来激进降息路径的"降温"，导致市 场对2026年的降息预期大大回落，导致昨晚金价急跌4176美元附近的主要原因之一。 另外俄罗斯宣布将从2026年起禁止金条出口，这从长期供应层面为金价提供了一定的心理支撑。 全球央行持续购金（如中国已连续13个月增持）；长期来看，去美元化、地缘不确定性等因素构成稳固基础。 个人思路： 如果金价强势突破而且站稳4230上方，很大可能将开启新一轮上涨，可顺势轻仓追多。 如果金价有效跌破4170，短期调整可能加深，需要警惕市场下探4160-4150的风险。 支撑：4170；强支撑在4155-4163区域 日内区间策略： 如果金价反弹4210-4220出现上涨乏力迹象，可轻仓空，止损4230，目标看4190-4180。 如果金价回落4170-4176美元区域企稳，可轻仓多， ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, with spot gold falling below $4200 per ounce, currently reported at $4189.03 per ounce, reflecting a drop of 1% [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking, while investors await U.S. economic data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near a two-week high, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alongside a continuous decline in the U.S. dollar index [4]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Short-term gold price trends appear weaker compared to silver, with a general rise in the base metals sector indicating a recovery in market risk appetite, which is unfavorable for gold prices [4]. - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell short of expectations and has contracted for nine consecutive months, heightening concerns over economic slowdown and monetary policy easing [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties are heightened by discussions within the Trump administration regarding further actions in Venezuela and the Russian military's control over two key towns in Ukraine, which may boost safe-haven demand [4]. - Conversely, signals from the Bank of Japan's governor regarding potential interest rate hikes suggest a tightening global liquidity environment, which could limit upward movement in precious metals [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that despite the current market pressures, the combination of weak economic data and geopolitical risks may provide short-term support for gold prices [4]. - The overall sentiment remains that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will support gold prices from a yield perspective [5].

中国基金报记者 忆山 12月2日，国际金价持续下跌。截至发稿，伦敦金现失守4200美元/盎司，报4189.03美元/盎司，跌幅达 1%；COMEX黄金报4227.1美元/盎司，下跌1.12%。 来源：中国基金报 【导读】国际金价持续下跌，现货黄金失守4200美元/盎司 KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特表示，黄金基本面未变，包括预期的美联储降息，从收益率角度 看应会支撑金价。 编辑：江右 校对：纪元 制作：舰长 审核：陈思扬 | W | | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4189.030 | | 昨结 | | 4231.470 | 总量 | | | 0 | | -42.440 | -1.00% 开盘 | | | 4231.470 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4236.000 | 持 | 色 | 0 | タト | 智 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4180.895 | 增 | 色 | 0 | 内 | 盟 | | 0 | | 分时 ...

日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持(吨) 2025-12-01 1128.49 -2.34 2025-11-28 1130.83 -6.25 【要闻回顾】 美国11月ISM制造业PMI不及预期且连续九个月萎缩，强化了经济增长放缓忧虑与货币政策宽松预期； 同时，特朗普政府商讨对委内瑞拉"下一步行动"以及俄军宣布控制乌克兰两座重镇，均加剧地缘不确定 性，推升避险情绪。 日本央行行长释放明确加息信号，预示全球流动性环境可能边际收紧，或在一定程度上抑制贵金属上行 空间。 摘要12月1日，COMEX黄金库存录得1128.49吨，较上一交易日减少2.34吨；COMEX黄金周一(12月1日) 收4271.60美元/盎司，上涨0.36%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4299.60美元/盎司，最低触及4241.10 美元/盎司。 12月1日，COMEX黄金库存录得1128.49吨，较上一交易日减少2.34吨；COMEX黄金周一(12月1日)收 4271.60美元/盎司，上涨0.36%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4299.60美元/盎司，最低触及4241.10美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

Group 1 - Precious metals market rebounds strongly after a brief correction, with silver reaching a 14-year high and leading the gains in the gold and silver sector [1] - As of 11:00 AM, New York silver rose by 1.50% to $43.58 per ounce, while Shanghai silver surged by 3.07% to ¥10,243 per kilogram [1] - Gold also experienced upward movement, with New York gold futures increasing by 0.43% to $3,721.8 per ounce, and Shanghai gold rising by 1.25% to ¥840.16 per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is driven by speculative sentiment and growing industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The gold-silver ratio in the domestic market is around 83, while the international market is approximately 85, indicating potential for silver price correction as it remains above the historical range of 60-80 [1] - Multiple factors, including speculative sentiment, industrial fundamentals, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to enhance silver's price elasticity compared to gold [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, as indicated by officials, reinforces market expectations for continued monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly boosting global market risk aversion and providing strong support for gold and silver prices [2] - The ongoing restructuring of military alliances in the region and the anticipated long-term conflicts are likely to sustain demand for gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [2] Group 4 - Overall, expectations of monetary policy easing, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with bullish sentiment from institutions, are driving upward momentum in gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, key support for New York gold has risen to around $3,600, with potential to reach $3,800, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, aims for a target of $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Market corrections are viewed as opportunities for positioning, with gold and silver expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend [3]