针对当前多空博弈的僵局，EasyMarkets易信认为，比特币目前在90000美元上方的震荡反映了投资者对 未来监管环境和宏观通胀路径的谨慎态度。虽然部分成功转型AI基础设施的矿商股表现稳健，显示出 行业内部存在结构性机会，但在短期内，宏观政策的定调将对比特币能否开启新一轮涨势起到决定性作 用。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 1月12日，上周五，加密货币市场再次上演了一出"冲高回落"的戏码，比特币在早盘一度尝试向上突 破，但最终未能站稳脚跟，价格重新回落至90000美元的关键心理关口附近。EasyMarkets易信认为，尽 管市场对风险资产仍存兴趣，但在宏观政策靴子落地之前，多头力量显得后劲不足，加密市场正处于一 个微妙的重新定价阶段。 从基本面来看，美国劳工部最新公布的12月就业报告呈现出极其复杂的信号。EasyMarkets易信表示， 上月新增非农就业岗位仅为5万个，低于市场预期的6万个，且前期数据遭遇了显著的下修。不过，失业 率却超预期降至4.4%。这种数据的矛盾性加剧了市场对劳动力市场真实状态的争论。受此类不确定因 素影响，比特币在一度触及92000美元的高位后迅速掉头向下，过去24小时跌幅 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.1.12 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 02 本周有色行情预判 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 铝锭：宏观依旧偏强 价格高位运行 Ø 逻辑：上周沪铝震荡走强。宏观上12月美国非农就业增长放缓程度超出预期，但失业率下降，表明劳动力市场并未出现 快速恶化，提升了经济有望避免陷入衰退的信心。基本面，国产矿方面，当前北方地区货源偏紧，但受氧化铝价格持续 走弱影响，氧化铝厂对铝土矿的溢价采购意愿不强。在供需博弈下，预计国产矿价仍有一定下行空间。进口矿市场近期 呈现买卖双方意向价分歧态势，整体成交表现胶着。不过，一季度长单价格总体平稳，加之部分矿区恢复发运， ...

宏观政策是我国经济保持平稳运行、迈向高质量发展的重要保障。 宏观政策是我国经济保持平稳运行、迈向高质量发展的重要保障。2025年我国首次实施更加积极的财政 政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据中央经 济工作会议部署，2026年宏观政策取向上要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 更加积极的财政政策要精准增效。 更大力度支持"两重"项目，加力扩围实施"两新"政策，大幅增加基础研究投入，充实稳就业政策工 具……2025年，财政政策提高赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券，增加对地方转移支付，推动地方落实隐 性债务置换政策，为稳增长、调结构、防风险提供了有力支撑。2026年，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量，既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持 续。 必须看到，近年来，外部冲击加大、内部困难增多等因素交织，对一些地方财政收支造成很大影响，可 用财力下降叠加刚性支出持续增长。要重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增 ...

从同比看，2025年12月份，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。"同比涨幅扩大主要是食 品价格涨幅扩大拉动。"董莉娟说。 具体而言，2025年12月份，食品价格同比上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影 响比上月增加约0.17个百分点。能源价格同比下降3.8%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点，其中汽油价格 同比降幅扩大至8.4%。 国家统计局1月9日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.8%，环比上涨 0.2%。2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，受食品价格涨幅扩大拉动，2025年12月份，CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高。 CPI环比由降转涨 从环比看，2025年12月份，CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，董莉娟表示，环比上涨主要受除能 源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。 数据显示，2025年12月份，扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比上涨0.6%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.16个百分 点。"其中，提振消费政策效果持续显现，叠加元 ...

因地制宜是习近平总书记反复强调的工作方法。早在地方工作时，习近平同志就坚持因地制宜开展工作。在河北工作期间，根据正定县区位特点提出 了"半城郊型"经济发展的新路子。在福建，提出发展林下经济、耕海牧渔，念好"山海经"，把丰富的山海资源转化为发展优势。在浙江，针对全省农村地 区发展不平衡，亲自谋划、亲自部署、亲自推动"千万工程"，让万千乡村找到了各美其美、美美与共的最优解。在上海，明确提出以"四个放在"思考和谋 划上海未来发展。 党的十八大以来，习近平总书记把因地制宜的要求贯穿治国理政的多个方面。总书记强调，"扶贫要实事求是，因地制宜"；乡村振兴要"科学把握乡村的 差异性，因村制宜，精准施策，打造各具特色的现代版'富春山居图'"；生态治理要"宜林则林、宜草则草、宜沙则沙、宜荒则荒"；区域协调发展要"宜水 则水、宜山则山，宜粮则粮、宜农则农，宜工则工、宜商则商"。近两年在发展新质生产力上，总书记更是反复强调要因地制宜。 习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上强调："因地制宜，本质是实事求是。"因地制宜，是正确政绩观，是科学方法论，是各地各部门结合实际贯彻落实中 央经济工作会议精神的关键之举和重要遵循。 20 26年1月7 ...

宏观政策是我国经济保持平稳运行、迈向高质量发展的重要保障。2025年我国首次实施更加积极的财政 政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据中央经 济工作会议部署，2026年宏观政策取向上要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 更加积极的财政政策要精准增效。 更大力度支持"两重"项目，加力扩围实施"两新"政策，大幅增加基础研究投入，充实稳就业政策工 具……2025年，财政政策提高赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券，增加对地方转移支付，推动地方落实隐 性债务置换政策，为稳增长、调结构、防风险提供了有力支撑。2026年，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量，既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持 续。 必须看到，近年来，外部冲击加大、内部困难增多等因素交织，对一些地方财政收支造成很大影响，可 用财力下降叠加刚性支出持续增长。要重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主 财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 近年来，针对经济运 ...

双焦 2026年1月双焦基本面月报 红塔期货 研究员：赵欧娅 从业资格号：F3067732 投资咨询号：Z0017180 Email：zhaoouya@hongtaqh.com 投资咨询业务资格 云证监许可[2012]291号 仅作参考，请仔细阅读文件末尾【免责声明】 双焦基本面概述 宏观因素 全球流动性趋松 海外主要经济体货币政策趋向宽松为市场提供了流动性支持；国内十五五"规划开局之年，在经济增长承压背景下，积极的 财政政策有望靠前发力，赤字率预计维持较高水平，并辅以适度的货币宽松。 供需情况 需求弱势抑制价格 1月，炼焦煤市场，供需对价格支撑难有明显带动，价格端仍是承压，需关注补库强度带动市场情绪，是否能带动价格企稳反 弹；焦炭市场，高库存和供需宽松格局大概率还是继续抑制着价格空间，而终端钢材淡季需求疲软继续加剧着供需失衡。 国内市场：宏观政策靠前发力。 12月中国制造业PMI录得50.1%，环比上升0.9个百分点，逆周期扩张力度显著，时隔8个月重回扩张区间。同期，非制造业PMI回升至 50.2%，其中建筑业指数大幅上涨3.2个百分点至52.8%，重返扩张区间，而服务业指数仅微升0.2个百分点至49.7% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].