晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化不大 钢价盘整运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量下降 5.28 万吨至 165.1 万吨， 热卷产量下降 0.2 万吨至 309.61 万吨，五大材总产量下降 7.98 万吨至 796.77 万吨；螺纹钢总库存上升 84.56 万吨至 800.6 万吨，热卷总库存 上升 18.3 万吨至 452.15 万吨，五大材总库存上升 134.27 万吨至 1846.11 万吨；螺纹钢表观需求量上升 39.38 万吨至 80.54 万吨，热卷表观需求量 上升 44.58 万吨至 291.31 万吨，五大材表观需求量上升 126.86 万吨至 662.5 万吨。据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 25 日，全国 10692 个工地开复 工率为 8.9%，农历同比增加 1.5 个百分点；劳务上工率 15.5%，农历同比 增加 3.7 个百分点；资金到位率 29%，农历同比增加 9.4 个百分点。其中， 房地产项目开复工率为 8.2%，非房地产项目开复工率为 9.2 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-27 沙特供应收紧，进口成本保持坚挺 市场分析 1、2月26日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4500；东北市场，3670-4100；华北市场，4180-4450；华东市场，4200-4400； 沿江市场，4560-4780；西北市场，4050-4250；华南市场，4600-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷670美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5106元/吨，涨62元/吨，丁烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷650美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨，丁烷4954元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 25日晚间沙特juaymah NGL设施突发故障，导致Ras Tanura码头3月部分装船计划被取消，外盘纸货维持强势行情， 国际市场偏紧、进口成本较高的局面延续，国内化工装置利润或将受到进一步压制。除了意外的不可抗力外 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 25566 亿元，较上日放量 757 亿元。目 前临近两会政策时间窗口，股市风险偏好有所回升，股市成交量能逐渐放量，不过 ...

【钢材】"沪七条"及限产政策给盘面短暂反弹驱动 周三期价企稳反弹,现货跟随上涨,目内驱动主要来自于"炉七条"地产新政及北方区域钢厂限产政策,但观察现货成交和 涨价跟随情况,并没有很理想。从产业库存、产销等历史季节性数据来线性推演:目前现货库存仍处于脉冲累积的过程, 后第三周后逐步进入降库周期,今年库存总量预估中性略高，板材和钢坯库存高位,作为后续测试去库压力的重要观察品 种。从节前了解到的现货各环节冬储情况来看冬储敞口压力不大,推测现货的主动抛压不会太重。而产销角度，春节闹晚 节后天气对复工、复产启动提供较好基础,同时两会召开可能释放的政策信号或许是"十五五"开局之年值得期待的宏观驱 动点。 | | | | | | | | | ER EN ENR | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | ...

招联首席经济学家董希淼表示，2025年以来，一揽子重磅政策陆续出台，其政策效应还需要进一步发 挥。加强存量政策执行落实和持续优化，是2026年宏观政策重要着力点。 经济日报：2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 和跨周期调节力度。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，伴随美国高关税对全球贸易和我国出口负面影响的逐步显现，二季 度宏观经济可能出现一定下行压力，届时不排除逆周期调节政策发力的可能。 在此过程中，适时实施降准降息尤其是引导LPR稳中有降，仍然具有空间和可能。中信证券首席经济学 家明明分析，在当下实体经济融资成本已相对较低，而银行息差有待修复的环境下，国内降息的紧迫性 并不强，实际操作节奏可能取决于信贷需求修复情况，需关注一季度各项金融数据成色。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic growth, with the highest fiscal deficit levels in recent years and a significant increase in government bond issuance to boost key sector spending [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 will feature a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2]. - The new government debt scale will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to be 287.395 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure will be 1.129 trillion yuan, up 11.3% [2]. Government Bonds - Government bonds will play a crucial role in expanding investment and addressing shortfalls, with expenditures on special bonds reaching 619 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The fiscal policy will utilize a combination of tools, including increasing the fiscal deficit rate and issuing long-term special bonds to support macroeconomic stability and high-quality development [3]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will see a rapid growth in the total financial volume, with M2 growth significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB loan balance is expected to reach 272 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 7% after adjusting for local debt impacts [3]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a package of financial support measures to solidify the economic recovery [2][3]. Support for Domestic Demand - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to boost investment, enhance consumption, and improve livelihoods, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption program is expected to generate sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. Financial Support for Consumption - By the end of 2025, financial institutions have reported applications for 118.4 billion yuan in re-loans to support consumption and elderly care [5]. - Consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, are projected to reach 21.2 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [5]. Policy Integration - In early 2026, the continued issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and equipment upgrades, injecting strong momentum into the economy [6]. - The macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and monetary measures [8]. Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has confirmed the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, emphasizing precision and effectiveness in policy implementation [7]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies and stimulate domestic demand [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

（来源：求是网） 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，开好局、起好步至关重要。政策支持的关键在于通过实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 把握2026年政策支持的着力点，一个重要方面就是"提质增效"。然而，由于客观形势的变化、政策 理解的差异、政策之间协同不到位等情况，宏观政策在实施过程中会出现偏差，导致政策效果不及预 期。一方面，部门或地方在各自合理的前提下实施政策，但叠加后最终未能达成整体最优甚至出现政策 之间相互抵牾的情况。另一方面，虽然制定了科学合理的宏观政策目标，但在向部门或地方层面分解过 程中，不能有效转化为可执行的具体行动，从而导致宏观政策目标在微观层面无法有效落实。防范和化 解这些政策偏差，关键是要深刻领会和落实中央经济工作会议强调的"提质增效"要求，进一步强化系统 观念，增强宏观政策取向一致性，提升政策的前瞻性针对性协同性。 实际上，从2022年以来，国务院各部门出台文件凡涉及宏观经济稳定和市场预期稳定的，都要由国 家发展改革委开展宏观政策取向一致性评估。实践中，要用好宏观政策一致性评估工作机制 ...

供需端的利好进一步支撑价格。原油市场方面，EIA 数据显示截至 2 月 13 日美国原油库存减少 900 万 桶，远超市场预期的增加 210 万桶，库存意外下降为油价提供了基本面支撑。贵金属方面，全球央行持 续购金的长期逻辑未变，叠加白银库存紧张，为银价上涨提供了额外动力中经网。 尽管假期行情强势，业内机构对后市却保持谨慎，认为多重变量将加剧价格波动。原油市场方面，南华 期货指出，3 月至 4 月全球炼厂将进入传统检修季，需求可能出现阶段性收缩，同时 "欧佩克 +"4 月是 否重启增产、非欧佩克产油国产量增长情况，均为供应端带来不确定性中国经济网。此外，IEA、EIA 预测 2026 年全球原油可能出现供应过剩超 200 万桶 / 天，基本面与当前地缘溢价存在背离。 贵金属市场方面，正信期货表示，当前市场不确定性较高，操作需以谨慎为主中国经济网。黄金虽有央 行购金、地缘避险等利多逻辑支撑，但短期涨幅较大，面临获利了结压力；白银因兼具工业属性，且市 场规模小、投机头寸集中，波动率约为黄金的 1.5 倍，价格急涨急跌的风险更高。 后续，市场将聚焦四大核心变量：2 月 26 日美伊日内瓦谈判的实际进展、美国 15% ...

2025年GDP实际增速为5%，名义增速仅3.9%，实际GDP增速较高与整个经济偏冷的紧缩状态并存。 对当下中国经济的讨论，多数人心目中的对照组可能仍是20年前甚至30年前的画面。这些画面有时候出 现在关于越南经济的报道中，那是热火朝天的繁荣景象。彼时中国正处于经济高速增长的阶段，繁荣由 大规模的外资流入（世界工厂）、基建（资本积累）和人口迁移（城市化）推动。这样的繁荣景象太深 刻，以至于很难从我们脑海中抹去。这样的景象如何再现？超常增长时期已过，中国经济也变得更强 大。但如果政策处理得当，中国经济在达到中等发达国家水平之前，依然可以保持比西方世界更快的增 长。 正因为保持了长达几十年的高增长，中国经济获得了全面的发展，不仅让近8亿人摆脱了贫困，而且拥 有了覆盖全国的一流的物质基础设施，拥有了发达的高速公路、高铁网络、航空、通讯、电网、互联网 和5G等。在制造业领域，中国从简单加工起步，经历用市场换技术的中外合资办厂与引进国外技术并 消化吸收阶段，如今已拥有本土相当先进的制造能力与发达的供应链，涌现出一大批有科技创新能力和 国际竞争力的企业，并在人工智能、电动汽车、智能制造和生物医药等领域保持着世界先进的地位 ...