1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 18, during the tax payment period, the liquidity tightened; the bond market weakened significantly; the main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend, with most individual convertible bonds rising; the yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, boosting domestic circulation, stabilizing the real estate market, and improving people's livelihood [3] - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into institutions involved in the illegal use of bond issuance proceeds [4] - On August 18, the total market capitalization of A - shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The market rally was driven by policy dividends, industrial upgrading, and other factors [4] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, and emerging industries led the growth. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index all rose [5] 3.1.2 International News - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin to arrange a three - party meeting, and both Russia and the U.S. supported direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [6] - In June, EU exports to the U.S. reached a two - year low, with a 10% year - on - year decline. The EU's trade surplus shrank, and the chemical industry was particularly affected. Germany's exports to the U.S. declined, and the strengthening of the euro exacerbated the challenges [7] 3.1.3 Commodities - On August 18, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI September crude oil futures rose 0.99% to $63.42 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures rose 1.14% to $66.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.58% to $2.906 per ounce [8][9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On August 18, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 154.5 billion yuan [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On August 18, due to tax payments, the liquidity tightened, and major repurchase rates increased. DR001 rose 4.70bp to 1.503%, and DR007 rose 3.46bp to 1.514% [12] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On August 18, the strong stock market and the tightened liquidity due to tax payments weakened the bond market. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 2.50bp to 1.7700%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 rose 2.25bp to 1.8900% [16] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25NongfaDiscount07 (Increment 2) and 25Guokai06 (Increment 31) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, and other details [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On August 18, 4 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds had transaction prices deviating by more than 10%. For example, "H1 Bidi 04" rose by more than 31%, and "18 Taixing Xinghuang Bond 01" fell by more than 49% [18][19] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced events such as adjusting bond repayment arrangements, canceling bond issuances, and facing losses or legal issues [21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On August 18, the A - share market strengthened, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.92%, 0.87%, and 1.01% respectively. Most individual convertible bonds rose [21] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Jinwei Convertible Bond will start online subscription on August 20 [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of most U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 2 - year yield rising 2bp to 3.77% and the 10 - year yield rising 1bp to 4.34%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 1bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate remained at 2.38% [25][26][27] - **European Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained at 2.78%, while the yields of French, Italian, and Spanish 10 - year government bonds declined, and the yield of the British 10 - year government bond rose [28][29] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of top - 10 rising and falling Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on August 18 was provided, including companies such as Sunac China and SMIC [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face involves measures to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, foster service consumption, and increase effective investment. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the zinc ore processing fee is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth is accelerating. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall transaction is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price supports the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings, breaking below the MA60, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The three - month zinc quotation on the LME is 2,777 US dollars/ton, down 19.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 214,599 lots, up 2,376 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 3,632 lots, down 10,163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,538 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 76,803 tons (weekly), up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 75,850 tons, down 475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.65 US dollars/ton, down 3.43 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,990 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore output of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 114,900 tons (weekly), up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.45% (daily), up 1.43 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 5.36% (daily), down 2.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.12% (daily), up 0.09 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Macro - face: Measures should be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase effective investment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report indicates that the recent slight decline in tin prices is mostly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. LME inventories continue to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai tin is 40 yuan higher. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,702 dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 21,004 hands, down 1,092 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 713 hands. The total inventory of LME tin is 1,655 tons, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange (weekly) is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 145 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange (daily) are 7,513 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,110 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 1,890 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 89 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. Industry News - Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. He also mentioned measures to strengthen the domestic large - scale cycle, stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and promote the construction of a unified national market. There are also measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In July, the increase in production was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, since it has entered the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid - demand production and procurement, and the orders are just passable. Recently, the tin price has slightly declined, mainly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The LME inventory continues to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,194.5, down 1.89%. The market sentiment declined due to trading volume restrictions. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months with a moderately high inventory. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 19, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,708.5, down 0.96%. The spot market started the seventh round of price increase. Macroscopically, the flood - control situation is still severe. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory rebounded, and the hot metal output was at a high level. The coking coal total inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价: 1,194.50 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价: 1,708.50 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量: 931,492.00 hands, down 9,578.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量: 49,890.00 hands, down 1,555.00 hands [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓: - 116,069.00 hands, up 2,014.00 hands; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓: - 6,039.00 hands, down 193.00 hands [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差: 143.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan; J1 - 9月合约价差: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - 焦煤仓单: 0.00; 焦炭仓单: 820.00 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤: 954.00 yuan/ton, down 42.00 yuan; 唐山一级冶金焦: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货 (CFR): 147.00 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; 日照港准一级冶金焦: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤: 1,500.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; 天津港一级冶金焦: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤: 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; 天津港准一级冶金焦: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约基差: 11.50 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan [2]. - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价: 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM主力合约基差: 105.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量: 26.40 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; 314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存: 297.00 million tons, up 8.90 million tons [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率: 0.37%, unchanged; 原煤产量: 38,098.70 million tons, down 4,008.70 million tons [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量: 3,561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; 523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量: 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存: 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; 焦炭18个港口库存: 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存: 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; 独立焦企全样本焦炭库存: 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存: 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; 全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存: 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数: 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; 247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数: 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量: 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; 焦炭及半焦炭出口量: 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - 炼焦煤产量: 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; 独立焦企产能利用率: 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况: 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; 焦炭产量: 4,185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率: 83.57%, down 0.20%; 247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率: 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - 粗钢产量: 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The flood - control situation is still severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August [2]. - On August 18, mainstream coking enterprises proposed the seventh round of coke price increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 19 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real - estate market [2]. - The steel industry achieved good results in the first half of the year, with the significant decline in crude steel output being the fundamental reason for profit improvement [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with large price fluctuations and an overall positive outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 87,540 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 149,845 hands, up 13,913 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 414,097 hands, down 7,009 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,555 hands/ton, up 70 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,840 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 990 US dollars/ton, up 79 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4%; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.53 million yuan/ton, up 0.03 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1%; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.33%, up 0.69%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.74%, up 0.36% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 148,147 contracts, down 3,229 contracts; the total put position is 138,973 contracts, up 16,351 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 93.81%, up 12.8026%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang: Consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. Further enhance the implementation effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluate policy implementation, respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations. Strengthen the domestic big cycle. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of the year, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses, and the problem of tight liquidity spread across the entire circulation industry. In 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat trend, but the growth expectation is lower than that at the end of last year. - TrendForce: In the second quarter, global new - energy vehicle (NEV) sales, including battery - electric vehicles (BEV), plug - in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and hydrogen - fuel - cell vehicles, reached 4.868 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Including hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), EV sales in the second quarter reached 6.456 million, accounting for 29% of global vehicle sales [2] Viewpoint Summary - The put - call ratio of option positions is 93.81%, up 12.8026% compared with the previous period. The call position in the option market dominates, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2] Operation Suggestion - Conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]

铝类产业日报 2025/8/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 20,545.00 | 环比 数据指标 -55.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 3,120.00 | 环比 -51.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 45.00 | +15.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 1.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 234,699.00 | +61704.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 192,727.00 | +15152.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 14,050.00 2,588.50 | -50.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) -14.50↓ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 88,412.00 479,525.00 | +2940.00↑ -25.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, and the market presents a mild recovery trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited price support. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3]. Aluminum - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% compared with last week [3]. - Last week, the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery. In some sub - fields, the start - up rate increased, while the recycled aluminum start - up rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to pick up in late August, and the traditional peak season may further drive demand [3]. - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 20,000 tons compared with last Monday [3]. - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations support the price. It is expected to run in a range in the near future, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity and improve the treasury bond yield curve [1] - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [1] - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US contact on the Ukraine issue [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, boosting domestic circulation, and stimulating consumption [2] 2. Key Focus - Commodities to focus on: coking coal, rapeseed meal, PX, soda ash, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.88%, precious metals 26.18%, oilseeds 13.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.24%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.83%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.70%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.97% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from August 12 - 18, 2025 [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.85 | 4.33 | 11.23 | | | SSE 50 | 0.21 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | | CSI 300 | 0.88 | 4.02 | 7.74 | | | CSI 500 | 1.52 | 7.10 | 16.46 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.01 | 1.73 | 9.65 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.37 | 1.63 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | - 0.18 | 1.04 | 22.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.77 | 6.44 | 9.57 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 12.05 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | - 0.29 | - 0.43 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | - 0.21 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.04 | - 0.05 | - 0.65 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.16 | - 1.25 | - 0.24 | | | WTI crude oil | 0.88 | - 8.48 | - 11.92 | | | London spot gold | - 0.10 | 1.28 | 26.97 | | | LME copper | - 0.41 | 1.31 | 10.84 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.11 | - 0.40 | 15.15 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.31 | - 1.89 | - 9.52 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 9.75 | - 13.03 | [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as risk premiums of related stock indices [6]

Economic Performance Overview - From January to July, Yunnan Province's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The mining industry saw an added value growth of 10.4%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 5.5%, both accelerating compared to the first half of the year [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry experienced a 2.3% increase in added value [1] Sector Analysis - Tobacco industry added value grew by 1.8%, energy industry by 3.8%, and non-tobacco and non-energy industries by 8.6% [1] - Key industrial products showed significant growth: single crystal silicon increased by 21.6% and electrolytic aluminum by 12.7% [1] - Under the policy of replacing old consumer goods, electric bicycles and solar water heaters saw increases of 39.0% and 28.7% respectively, while smartphones surged by 17.9 times year-on-year [1] Power Generation and Consumption - The total industrial power generation in Yunnan reached 248.189 billion kWh, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Clean energy sources (hydropower, wind power, and solar photovoltaic) accounted for 85.4% of the total power generation, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [1] Retail and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan amounted to 733.511 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2] - Fixed asset investment in the province increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - The service industry above designated size achieved operating income of 182.686 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year [2] Economic Outlook - Yunnan's economy is maintaining a stable and positive development trend, supported by proactive macro policies [2] - However, challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain, indicating the need for further consolidation of the economic recovery [2] - Future efforts will focus on implementing policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while effectively releasing domestic demand potential [2]