Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **metal industry**, particularly **strategic metals** and **new materials** for the first half of 2025, highlighting the revaluation of strategic metals and opportunities in new materials due to technological iterations [1][3][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strategic Metals Pricing**: By mid-2025, the pricing of strategic metals has fully reflected actual metal prices, influenced by global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][3]. - **Focus on Key Metals**: Emphasis on rare earth magnets, tungsten, and antimony, which have strong domestic resource control [1][3]. - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to counter U.S. technology restrictions, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets compared to domestic prices [1][6][9][11]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance is expected to improve gradually, potentially shifting from surplus to shortage, which will drive prices upward [2][12]. Specific Metal Insights - **Tungsten**: - The tungsten quota has decreased for two consecutive years due to resource depletion, with demand linked to macroeconomic conditions and growth in sectors like 3C and military, pushing prices to historical highs [4][15][16]. - Current tungsten prices exceed 170,000 yuan per ton, with production challenges due to low ore grades [14][15]. - **Antimony**: - Antimony market is strong, with domestic supply accounting for over 60% of global production. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of demand, expected to grow as installation capacity expands [4][17][18]. - **Molybdenum**: - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to stable production and lack of new mining projects, with demand primarily from stainless steel and special steel applications [19][22]. New Materials Sector - **Growth Opportunities**: The electronic and military sectors are highlighted as key areas for growth in new materials, driven by advancements in AI and electronic components [5][23][24]. - **Technological Upgrades**: The demand for upgraded electronic materials is increasing, particularly for components like capacitors and inductors, which require smaller particle sizes and higher performance [23][24]. Geopolitical and Market Impacts - **China's Dominance**: China holds a significant advantage in the smelting of strategic metals, with over 90% of rare earth separation occurring domestically, despite U.S. technology restrictions [1][10][11][12]. - **U.S. Dependency**: The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for strategic metals, with significant portions of its tungsten, antimony, and rare earth needs met by Chinese imports [11]. Emerging Trends - **Military Sector Recovery**: The military industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in aerospace, with increased demand for strategic metals [26]. - **New Applications**: The demand for tantalum, niobium, and titanium in high-temperature applications and aerospace is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and military needs [28]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market is poised for growth, supported by strong demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Companies in this sector, such as Jinchuan Group and Xiamen Tungsten, are recommended for their promising outlooks [29].

Group 1: Strategic Metal Pricing and Supply Dynamics - The strategic attributes of metals are increasingly important, with China implementing export controls on key strategic metals, leading to significant price differentiation domestically and internationally. This has resulted in an overall upward trend in domestic strategic metal prices [12][14][51]. - The supply of rare earth materials is tightening due to slowed domestic mining quotas and increased instability in overseas supply. In 2024, China's rare earth production is expected to be 270,000 tons REO, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping from 21% in 2023 to 6% [19][26][52]. - China's dominance in rare earth resources is evident, holding 48.9% of global reserves and 69% of global production in 2024. The concentration of resources is significant, with the top four countries accounting for 86.2% of global reserves [19][21][49]. Group 2: Demand Growth in Key Sectors - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow, driven by the rapid development of electric vehicles, energy-saving motors, and humanoid robots, which are key areas for future growth [52]. - The tungsten market is anticipated to see steady demand recovery, supported by the increasing need for hard alloys and applications in the photovoltaic sector, alongside military demand due to geopolitical tensions [3][5]. - The electronic materials sector is benefiting from advancements in AI technology, which is driving the need for upgraded electronic materials to meet higher performance requirements [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Materials - The AI technology evolution is creating opportunities for the electronic new materials sector, with a notable recovery trend in the electronic industry expected to accelerate the demand for these materials [7][8]. - The military sector is gradually recovering, with new materials for military applications expected to see increased demand as the aerospace industry continues to evolve [10][11]. - The titanium market is poised for growth due to the ongoing development of the aerospace sector, with increasing orders for domestic aircraft like the C919 [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of tightening supply in the second half of the year [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with better-than-expected production in photovoltaic aluminum profiles [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attractiveness due to heightened geopolitical tensions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices decreased by 0.24% to $9647.50 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper fell by 1.17% to 78,000 yuan per ton [15] - Aluminum prices increased by 2.10% to $2503.00 per ton on LME, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.84% to 20,000 yuan per ton [3] - Gold prices rose by 3.16% to $3452.60 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid international tensions [17] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$44.75 per ton [15] - National copper inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons to 14.48 thousand tons [15] - Expected increase in operating rates for copper enterprises in China by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56% by June 2025 [15] 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 460,000 tons [3] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leaders fell by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] 2.3 Precious Metals - SPDR gold holdings increased by 4.27 tons to 940.49 tons [17] - Geopolitical events, including the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, have increased gold's short-term safe-haven appeal [17] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, with export controls likely to drive prices higher [35] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to new certification standards for flame-retardant cables [39] - Molybdenum prices remain stable, with a positive outlook due to increased demand in the steel industry [40] 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for dysprosium and terbium remained stable at $800 and $3500 per ton, respectively [36] - The Chinese government is facilitating compliant trade for heavy rare earth products [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 189,500 yuan per ton, reflecting weak export demand [39] - The upcoming implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may boost demand for antimony [39] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 3840 yuan per ton [40] - Steel procurement volumes have increased by 8% year-on-year, supporting molybdenum demand [40] 5. Overview of Energy Metals Market - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.4% to 60,400 yuan per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased by 2.18% to 66,000 yuan per ton [6] - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices decreased by 2.5% to $15,100 per ton [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong upward movement on June 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly returning to 3400 points, and nearly 3700 stocks in the green. The half-day trading volume reached 823 billion, an increase of 764 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Factors Influencing Market Strength - The strengthening of indices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Central Huijin becoming the actual controller of eight companies including Xinda Securities, which is expected to drive a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry [2][5] 2. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts, thereby enhancing investment value [3] 3. The Ministry of Commerce stated that the export control of rare earths aligns with international practices, having approved a certain number of compliant applications [4] Sector Performance - **Brokerage Sector**: The "bull market leader" brokerage stocks surged, with Xinda Securities hitting the daily limit. Other stocks like Yong'an Futures and Nanhua Futures also reached their daily limits, driven by the announcement of Central Huijin's control over several securities firms [5] - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The innovative drug and CRO sectors saw significant gains, with multiple stocks such as Zhongseng Pharmaceutical and Ruizhi Pharmaceutical hitting their daily limits. Analysts predict a sustained recovery in the pharmaceutical market, highlighting structural opportunities [6] - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector**: This sector has shown repeated strength, with stocks like Zhongke Magnetic Materials reaching a 20% limit up. The Ministry of Commerce's comments on export controls have positively influenced this sector [7] - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: Stocks in this sector, including Yinglian Co. and Dexin Technology, also saw gains, with predictions of significant production increases by 2030 [8] Institutional Insights - **CITIC Securities**: The firm suggests that the upcoming bull market entry point may occur in late Q3 to Q4, but a transitional phase of 3-4 months is expected. They emphasize the need for more concrete measures to boost domestic demand and caution against macroeconomic uncertainties [10] - **CITIC Construction Investment**: They highlight June as a critical period for dividend releases, recommending tracking fund flows and industry conditions to identify high-dividend stock opportunities [11] - **Orient Securities**: They believe that despite external negative factors, internal support is strong, suggesting limited downside for stock indices and recommending patience for opportunities in sectors like technology and strategic metals [12]

Core Viewpoint - Despite external negative disturbances, internal support forces are strong, limiting the downward space of stock indices, with a high probability of short-term index fluctuations [5] Group 1: Market Trends - The solid-state battery sector is gaining strength, with companies like Yinglian Co. and Dexin Technology hitting the daily limit [2] - The CRO sector in pharmaceuticals is also performing well, with companies like Lianhua Technology reaching the daily limit [5] - The agricultural pesticide sector continues its strong performance, with Changqing Co. achieving consecutive gains [5] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests avoiding macro disturbances and focusing on industrial trends, indicating a transitional phase before a potential bull market in the third to fourth quarter [3] - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes the importance of tracking capital flows and industry sentiment in June, a key period for dividend distribution, to identify high-dividend investment opportunities [4]

Strategic Metals - The Chinese government is enhancing control over strategic mineral exports to prevent illegal outflow, with a focus on various strategic metals such as rare earths, cobalt, and tungsten [1] - Analysts from Zheshang Securities and CITIC Securities suggest that the valuation of strategic metals is expected to rise due to resource scarcity and increasing demand from sectors like new energy and military [1] Beer Industry - In the first four months of 2025, China's beer production from large enterprises decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, but April saw a 4.8% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery trend [2] - Analysts expect the beer industry to improve in 2024, driven by increased consumption in dining channels and low inventory levels [2] Smart Cleaning Industry - The launch of MOVA's lawn mowers in Europe has gained significant market traction, achieving top sales rankings on Amazon in France and Germany [3] - The smart cleaning industry is entering a phase of technological commercialization and policy support, with advancements in AI and sensor technology enhancing operational efficiency [3] Toy Industry - Miniso is planning to spin off its TOPTOY brand for an IPO in Hong Kong, following the success of similar companies like Pop Mart [4] - The rapid expansion of TOPTOY, which has grown to 280 stores, reflects Miniso's commitment to the trendy toy market [4] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector reported a premium income of 25,955 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with a notable 9.6% growth in April [5] - The market acceptance of dividend insurance products is rising, contributing to the industry's growth [5] Exoskeleton Robots - The development of a new lower-limb exoskeleton robot by the Chinese Academy of Sciences aims to assist patients with lower limb paralysis, showing promising results in clinical trials [6] - The exoskeleton robot market is transitioning from medical applications to consumer markets, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [6] Aviation Industry - China is considering a significant order for Airbus aircraft, potentially ranging from 200 to 500 units, which could become the largest aircraft purchase in Chinese aviation history [7] - The order is expected to benefit Airbus at a time when Boeing faces challenges in the Chinese market due to ongoing trade tensions [7] Macro and Industry News - The central government plans to support urban renewal actions in 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin [8] - The National Energy Administration is initiating pilot projects for new power system construction [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on promoting the development of the artificial intelligence industry [10]