Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although the overall profit on the supply - side has declined, natural soda ash projects maintain high profits. Traditional backward - capacity maintenance has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in significant supply pressure. On the demand side, while futures and spot traders are active and restocking is sufficient, the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a slowdown in demand and a decrease in the de - stocking speed. The main downstream industries of soda ash, such as float glass and photovoltaic glass, are not optimistic. Therefore, it is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract after a rebound [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the resumption of production lines in some areas has increased the weekly output, but the overall industry profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited, so the subsequent resumption of production may decline. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and demand will weaken further in the traditional off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The increase in the inventory of automobile glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. It is expected that there is still upward momentum in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a short - term rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 240 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 22 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 963 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 1203 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is 7 yuan, with a decrease of 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 contract spread of glass is - 55 yuan, with a decrease of 3 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 5 yuan, with a decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of glass is 68 yuan, with a decrease of 46 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipt**: The position of the soda ash main contract is 1443208 lots, with a decrease of 65754 lots; the position of the glass main contract is 1552205 lots, with an increase of 107933 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 227449 lots, with a decrease of 52982 lots; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 220121 lots, with a decrease of 45869 lots. The soda ash exchange warehouse receipt is 3340 tons, with an increase of 1278 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of East China light soda ash is 1340 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 78.57%, with a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, with an increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - **Production Capacity and Inventory**: The in - production capacity of glass is 15.63 million tons/year, with no change; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, with an increase of 2. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 162.43 million tons, with an increase of 2.2 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6766.2 million heavy - boxes, with a decrease of 10.7 million heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - **Real - Estate**: The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 17835.84 million square meters, with an increase of 4839.38 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 15647.85 million square meters, with an increase of 2587.58 million square meters [2]. 行业消息 - Multiple industry news is reported, including the organization of the first - batch pilot work of new - type power system construction by the National Energy Administration, the research and deployment of promoting the development of the artificial - intelligence industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the preliminary estimate of 124 million new - energy passenger - vehicle wholesale sales in May by the Passenger Car Association with a year - on - year increase of 38%, etc. [2] 宏观情况 - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May is 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, and it has fallen below the critical point for the first time since last October [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a weakening basis [2]. - The overall fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of sufficient supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,680 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 193,023 lots, a decrease of 2,191 lots [2]. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 3,161 lots, a decrease of 1,541 lots; the LME copper inventory is 141,350 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,791 tons, an increase of 7,120 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 83,300 tons, an increase of 8,275 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 31,687 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 78,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 78,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 79 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 48.48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.83 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.56 dollars/kiloton, an increase of 0.72 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,660 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,360 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials is 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 1,408.16 billion yuan, an increase of 451.95 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan, an increase of 7,825.40 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.77%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.25%, a decrease of 0.22% [2]. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.34%, a decrease of 0.0012%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.83, an increase of 0.0285 [2]. Industry News - The "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, and the overall economic outlook remains pessimistic. Some enterprises plan to raise prices in the next three months [2]. - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, far lower than expected [2]. - The National Energy Administration organized the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system and required the acceleration of the continuous operation of power spot markets [2]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May reached 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9% [2].

Group 1 - Manus has launched a "text-to-video" feature [1] - The first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine has been approved for market [1] - Amazon plans to invest $10 billion in North Carolina for artificial intelligence innovation [1] Group 2 - OpenAI has over 3 million paid enterprise users, with projected revenue of $12.7 billion for this year [1] - The establishment of safety requirements for intelligent connected vehicles' combination driving assistance systems is underway, with public consultation [1] Group 3 - Boeing will spend over $1.3 billion to settle two accident lawsuits, including fines, compensation, and rectification costs [1] - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.24 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 38% [1]

Domestic News - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Jiangsu Bank and exclude Great Wall Motor [4] - The Energy Administration is organizing the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system [4] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on promoting the development of the artificial intelligence industry and empowering new industrialization [4] - Shanghai encourages local enterprises to actively apply for infrastructure REITs reserve projects [4] - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [4] - Tiger International denies "violating regulations to develop new clients in mainland China," stating that all operations are conducted within the regulatory framework [4] International News - Saudi Arabia plans to push OPEC+ to continue increasing oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate its market share [3] - Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan will consider slowing down its bond reduction pace next year [3] - The ISM survey shows that the US services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, indicating rising inflation [3] - Trump calls for the complete elimination of the debt ceiling and urges bipartisan cooperation to achieve this [3] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei states that completely abandoning uranium enrichment is against Iran's interests [3] - The Bank of Canada maintains its key interest rate but may consider lowering it in the future, with the Canadian dollar reaching a new high [3] - The US ADP employment figures for May significantly fell short of expectations, prompting Trump to call for immediate interest rate cuts from Powell [3] - Musk continues to criticize Trump's tax law, publicly urging fans to call legislators to reject the law [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office states that Trump's tax law will increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [3] - Saudi Arabia lowers the oil price for July shipments to Asia to the lowest level in nearly four years, priced at $1.20 above the Oman/Dubai average [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reports slight declines in economic activity across six regions, with businesses generally expecting future costs to rise [3]

Domestic News - The first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine has been approved for market launch [3] - The National Energy Administration has initiated the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on promoting the development of the artificial intelligence industry and its integration into new industrialization [3] - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [3] - A draft for the safety requirements of "Intelligent Connected Vehicles - Combined Driving Assistance Systems" has been initiated and is open for public consultation [3] International News - The European Central Bank has approved Bulgaria's use of the euro [3] - Sources indicate that a trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada may be reached before the upcoming G7 summit [3] - President Trump stated that it is "too late" for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates now [3] - Russian presidential aide Mezhinsky reported that Ukraine is seeking an unconditional ceasefire lasting 30 to 60 days [3] - The German cabinet has approved a tax reduction plan amounting to €46 billion for the period from 2025 to 2029 [3] - UK Prime Minister Starmer expressed confidence in being able to reduce U.S. tariffs in a very short time [3] - Sources indicate that the U.S. and the UAE have agreed to negotiate a trade agreement that may lower tariffs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The downstream raw material inventory in the lithium industry is at a high level, with sufficient warehouse receipt inventory. In the short term, downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the willingness to stock up has not increased. The social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a supply surplus situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 66,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 65,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2505 is 64,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.55% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 64,200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 64,160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.99% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 65,320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.77% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 65,520 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.86% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6500 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2490 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1120 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,033 tons, an increase of 169 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 51,033 tons, a decrease of 1367 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,169 tons, an increase of 2346 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,831 tons, a decrease of 810 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipt inventory (daily, tons) is 36,244 tons, an increase of 1008 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 70,422 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 4684 yuan/ton [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 71,805 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 7653 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Sales - According to the comprehensive estimate of Passenger Federation data, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China in April was 1.14 million, with a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative sales volume from January to April this year is estimated [3]

Market Performance - On May 7, 2025, A-shares saw collective gains with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.67 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 0.36% to 1030.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.22% to 10104.13 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.51% to 1996.51 points [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened higher but narrowed gains, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.13% at 22691.88 points and a total turnover of HKD 2400.5 million; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.23% to 8242.25 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.75% to 5200.04 points [1] - U.S. stocks also experienced gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 284.97 points (0.70%) to 41113.97 points, the Nasdaq up by 48.50 points (0.27%) to 17738.16 points, and the S&P 500 increasing by 24.37 points (0.43%) to 5631.28 points [1] New Stock Offerings - Two new stocks are available for subscription today: - Taili Technology, with a subscription price of CNY 17.05 per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.55, focuses on new material research and vacuum technology applications, offering a range of home storage products and related functional materials [3] - Weigao Blood Purification, priced at CNY 26.5 per share with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.82, specializes in the research, production, and sales of medical products for blood purification, including hemodialysis devices and peritoneal dialysis solutions, making it one of the most comprehensive manufacturers in this field in China [3] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a new action plan aimed at promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing the need for improved salary management linked to fund performance [4][5] - Fund managers whose products underperform the benchmark by more than 10 percentage points over three years will see a significant reduction in their performance-based compensation, while those who exceed benchmarks may receive reasonable increases [5] - The action plan includes 25 measures designed to shift the focus of the industry from scale to returns, addressing market and social concerns and aiming for a turning point in high-quality development [5] Industry Insights - According to preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April 2025 are estimated at 1.14 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [6] - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the total wholesale volume reached 4 million units, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42% [6]

Group 1 - A-share market has a more solid foundation for long-term stable operation due to a series of continuously strengthened policies [16] - The recent emphasis on stabilizing and activating the capital market by the State Council Information Office further supports this outlook [16] - The role of central financial institutions in promoting long-term capital inflow into the market is expected to enhance market resilience [16] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and high-quality development [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including reducing investor costs and reforming performance evaluation mechanisms [4][5] - The Guangdong provincial government has launched a special action plan to boost consumption, which includes encouraging listed companies to implement employee stock ownership plans [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate target range, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [7] - The Fed's concerns about rising unemployment and inflation risks indicate a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [7] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff discussions between the U.S. and China continue to create economic uncertainty [5][8]