有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/14 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78670 9662 8.16 三月 78340 9684 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -220.79 现货出口 -64.09 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22450 2772 8.10 三月 22355 2773 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1530.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20790 2607 7.97 三月 20630 2609 7.93 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1371.41 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 15058 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 -2894.10 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -100 ...

取 更 多 资 讯 从业证书号 Z0019878 瑞达期货研究院 助理研究员: 「2025.07.11」 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类市场周报 淡季影响持续发酵，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.29%，报20695元/吨。氧化铝先涨后跌，周涨跌+3.08%，报3117元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存小幅回升，位于中高区间运行，供应量仍较为充足；几内亚供给受季节 性变化影响发运量减少，预计到港后国内进口量级或有收敛，铝土矿报价整体持稳。供给方面，国内在产产能维持高 位，现货市场供给宽松，近期氧化铝期货上涨令市场出现期现套利机会，期现商询价积极，现货报价上调。短期内， 国内氧化铝供给量预计仍将保持偏多状态。需求方面，国内电解铝产能持稳并保持高位，对氧化铝需求情绪仍相对稳 定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给相对偏多、需求稳定的阶段，前期盘面乐观情 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/10 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79040 9683 8.25 三月 78200 9661 8.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -437.33 现货出口 -232.74 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/10 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22160 2719 8.15 三月 22045 2717 6.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1420.13 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/10 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20660 2583 8.00 三月 20455 2585 7.95 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1323.71 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/10 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 118350 14781 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2437.48 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/10 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -1440 -1640 -1840 -2030 理论价差 501 900 1309 1 ...

资金博弈推升碳酸锂震荡，供需矛盾制约上行空间 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约7月8日报63880元/吨，较前一日小幅上 涨0.35%。基差继续走弱，现货贴水期货幅度扩大至-1080元，远期供需改 善预期仍存分歧。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量单日大幅增加15500手，成交量暴涨155.69% 至54.5万手，创近一周新高，多空资金博弈加剧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：短期扰动因素增多。锂盐厂产能利用率环比下降1个百分点至 61.8%，但中期供给放量压力仍存。原料价格维持僵持，锂辉石精矿与锂云 母精矿价格近两周持平。 需求端：边际改善但弹性不足。6月新能源车零售107.1万辆，同比增长 25%，渗透率突破52.7%，终端数据超预期。但传导至正极材料环节有限， 三元材料和磷酸铁锂仅微幅跟涨，电芯价格全线持稳，中游采购仍以长协 为主，零单补库意愿低迷。 库存与仓单：产业链累库压力延续，碳酸锂总库存环比增加1510吨至 138347吨，连续四周攀升。 市场小结 碳酸锂市场短期或延续震荡上行格局，但上行空间仍受供应端过剩的因素 限制。基本面矛盾依然突出，新能源车销量增 ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 6 日 国债期货周报 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 国 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货上周先下后上。 ◼ 权益市场风险偏好回落，同时央行二季度例会压低市场三季度降息降准预期。 ◼ 国债期货长端合约走强，短端走弱。 ◼ 投机与配置周度净多头持仓均呈现超 10%的较大正增长。 ◼ IRR 回落，正套可了结符合我们 6 月底策略会的判断。 ◼ 维持后市大方向看震荡的观点。适当取舍做多跨期、逢低配置与逢高套保。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 国债期货合约周度表现分化。短端合约表现较弱的同时长端较强，曲线有所走平。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 100 105 110 115 120 125 2024-01 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong "counter - attack" of coking coal futures prices is related to supply - side low - valuation - matching production cuts, 6 - 7 month production and import seasonality, high - level iron - water production, and market expectation revisions. The futures price has changed from long - term discount to premium. Given the current small premium and the upcoming resumption of domestic coking coal mines, excessive bullish expectations for coking coal futures prices are not advisable. The valuation decline space caused by the previous concentrated short - view on coking coal futures prices will be significantly revised upwards [12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Mongolian coal suspends customs clearance due to holidays, and the effect of domestic coal production cuts emerges - Recently, the trading of Mongolian coal has improved significantly due to the premium opportunity provided by the futures price. During the Naadam Festival from July 11th to July 15th, the three major Mongolian ports were closed for 5 days, leading to an expected short - term supply tightening. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased from 705 yuan/ton in the second half of the month to 740 - 750 yuan/ton [1] - Since May, domestic coking coal mines have successively cut production. State - owned large mines have poor sales and some mines are forced to cut production due to full storage; small mines have many accidents and the number of mines under suspension and rectification has increased since June; some private mines in certain regions have cut or even stopped production due to poor sales and production losses [1] - As production cuts continue and expand, the inventory of coking coal in some invisible links has been significantly digested, and the visible carbon element inventory has shown a significant decline since mid - June [3] 2. The sentiment of futures - spot trading surges, bringing vitality to spot trading - The reversal of futures price sentiment has provided space for futures - spot arbitrage and selling hedging, leading to a surge in futures - spot trading sentiment, which has driven the spot market of coking coal. The rate of unsuccessful auctions in the spot market has rapidly declined, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded significantly. For example, the price of lean coking coal in Shanxi has increased from 930 yuan/ton to 970 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse - receipt prices in Shanxi (except Mongolian coal) have also risen to 875 - 920 yuan/ton [5] - The price of Australian imported low - sulfur main coking coal converted into warehouse - receipt price is close to the futures price, and the trading of imported coal at ports has become more active. On the 2nd, the price index of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal rose by 9.7 to 196.85. The significant improvement in coking coal spot liquidity, combined with the small - scale replenishment of downstream coking plants and steel mills, will promote coal mine sales and drive up prices [7][9] 3. High - level iron - water production is maintained during the off - season, and the "anti - involution" expectation protects steel - making profits - Thanks to the relatively weak prices of coke and iron ore and the continuous support of export resilience, the current steel prices and steel - making profit levels are not bad. During the off - season of construction demand, iron - water production has not significantly decreased and remains at a high level of 242,000 tons per day. Although there are expectations of phased production restrictions in Tangshan, the national iron - water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to profit incentives [10] - The widespread discussion of "anti - involution" has led to a good expectation of future steel - making profits in the market. In the past, during the expectation stage of production restrictions or flat - control, both steel prices and raw material prices were driven upwards. The "anti - involution" expectation has also led to a re - discussion of the valuation repair of bulk commodities with over - capacity and valuations close to cost support [12]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/03 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -280 -470 -770 -1000 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -140 -195 -245 理论价差 215 335 456 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -165 -235 -325 -435 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 105 120 120 125 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 690 780 940 1050 锡 5-1 价差 -1000 理论价差 5546 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -140 -420 理论价差 237 644 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -60 理论价差 113 243 国 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79990 10059 7.97 三月 79680 9878 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1666.99 现货出口 1406.63 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22500 2770 8.12 三月 22445 2780 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.64 -1440.41 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20780 2598 8.00 三月 20495 2599 7.90 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.54 -1404.94 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 15025 7.98 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.23 -2486.93 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/01 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客 ...