证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 美元债双周报（25 年第 47 周） 弱于大市 经济数据陆续发布，降息预期大幅抬升 新美联储主席人选或在圣诞前宣布，热门候选人主张 12 月降息。11 月 25 日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国总统特朗普极有可能在今 年圣诞节前，提名美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。鲍威尔当前任期将于 2026年 5月结束，但特朗普此前已多次公开批评其货币政策并要求辞职。 而下一届联储主席热门候选人沃勒表示，他主张在 12 月降息。他指出， 最新数据显示劳动力市场依然疲软，不过一旦明年 1 月收到大量经济数 据后，美联储大概可以采取"逐次会议"决定的方式。与此同时，旧金 山联储主席戴利也表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是她认为就 业市场突然恶化的可能性更大，且比通胀飙升更难管理。 美国 9 月 PPI 核心通胀继续放缓。11 月 25 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 因政府停摆而延迟的的报告，数据显示显示核心通胀持续放缓。9 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.3%符合预期，主要受能源和食品价格推动；但剔除这两项的 核心 PPI 环比仅涨 0.1%，不及预期的 0.2%。同比方面，核心 PPI ...

衡量美元兑一篮子六种主要货币强弱的美元指数最新上涨0.1%，报99.624，此前连续五天下跌，创下7 月21日以来最大单周跌幅。 周五，美元有望创下7月下旬以来最差的单周表现，原因是交易员纷纷押注美联储下月将进一步放松货 币政策，同时美国感恩节假期也导致市场流动性趋于紧张。 最明显的改变是美国今年的"黑色星期五"。即使存在很大折扣，许多零售高管都反映，顾客正变得更精 明，越来越注重优惠力度。曾几何时，人们为抢购限时折扣的玩具和电视而在商店过道大打出手的场面 已然不复存在。 对此，业内专家表示，美国消费者多年来都保持持续消费的习惯，因为他们都确信实际前景可能比他们 描述的更好。然而，经历了今年至今关税政策带来的波动后，许多企业选择将部分进口税成本转嫁给消 费者，这让消费者对价格更敏感。 在这当中，玩具、婴幼儿用品、家居用品及团体运动装备等品类受冲击最为严重。数据显示，9月销售 的玩具中有83%涨幅达5%以上，因为美国销售的玩具近80%产自中国。 目前美国的输入性通胀（如关税成本）和核心通胀仍存隐忧，为了在控制通胀与支持就业间平衡，官员 不得不释放降息信号以稳定市场预期。 不过这一变化对中国市场而言，意味着多重积 ...

日本央行审议委员野口旭：几乎无法精准确定中性利率。核心通胀能否持续稳步迈向2%目标，完全取 决于工资上涨的动能能否持续，并向中小企业和地方经济扩散。如果经济活动和物价的发展与央行的预 期相符，央行将逐步调整货币宽松程度。要使通胀保持足够的可持续性和稳定性，需要的是需求的稳定 扩张以及伴随而来的名义工资的持续增长。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 斯里兰卡央行：理事会认为，当前的货币政策立场将有助于引导通胀朝着5%的目标水平发展。预计通 胀率的上升速度将比此前预测的更为缓慢，并在2026年下半年趋近目标水平。预计核心通胀将以温和的 速度加速上升。中期通胀预期仍围绕通胀目标保持稳定。随着外汇流动性改善，卢比贬值压力得到缓 解。斯里兰卡法定准备金率设定为2%。 ...

Macro Research - The core inflation and overall CPI have been diverging since the beginning of the year, driven by anti-involution governance, fiscal support, and rising gold prices, which are beneficial for the long-term recovery of core inflation [2][5] - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but rebounded to 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [3][16] Overseas Strategy Research - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily due to the US government shutdown causing liquidity issues, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and weakness in non-US currencies [6][25] - Historically, a strong dollar has led to capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks, and under the currency peg system, it may temporarily affect local liquidity and sectors in Hong Kong [7][26] - Short-term focus should be on the reopening of the US government and economic data, while mid-term prospects for Hong Kong stocks are optimistic, particularly in the technology sector [8][27] Transportation Industry Research - The Chinese aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle" as supply and demand gradually recover, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated [9][10] - The supply side is constrained by airspace bottlenecks, leading to a low growth environment, while demand is expected to remain robust due to the ongoing aviation population dividend [11][10] - The recovery in demand will drive ticket prices higher, contributing to a sustainable increase in profitability for airlines [10][11]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The core inflation continues to rise steadily, with October CPI increasing by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while PPI shows a year-on-year decline of 2.1% but a month-on-month recovery to 0.1% [3][5] - The main drivers for the recent rise in core CPI include anti-involution governance, fiscal stimulus, and rising gold prices, while long-term recovery relies on improving consumer capacity and high-quality consumption scenarios [3][5] - Food price drag has lessened, with core service prices rising seasonally, reaching the highest level since March 2024 [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The strong dollar has led to outflows of foreign capital from Hong Kong stocks, with a net outflow of 791.8 million HKD since the end of September [9][10] - The dollar's strength is attributed to U.S. government shutdowns, hawkish Fed statements, and weakness in non-dollar currencies, impacting liquidity in Hong Kong [8][9] - Despite short-term pressures, the Hong Kong market is expected to reach new highs in the medium term, driven by inflows of incremental capital and high-quality assets [10] Group 3: Aviation Sector Outlook - The Chinese aviation sector is entering a "super cycle," with a significant rise in profitability expected as supply and demand recover, leading to higher ticket prices [14][15] - The supply side is constrained by airspace bottlenecks, while demand is supported by a growing aviation population and recovery in customer structure [14] - The long-term logic of the aviation sector suggests a strategic increase in positions, particularly in high-quality networks, as demand continues to strengthen [15] Group 4: Machinery Industry Performance - The machinery industry is projected to see overall improvement by 2025, with significant revenue growth and profit increases reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [17] - Key growth areas include humanoid robots and engineering machinery, driven by advancements in AI manufacturing and increased orders from overseas markets [18] - The energy equipment sector is also recovering, with a focus on rational competition and price recovery in the photovoltaic equipment market [18]

杰斐逊强调，在未来的利率决策过程中，他将采取逐次会议的方式进行评估。他特别指出，在当前情况下这种审慎做法尤为必要，因为美国的政府停摆导致 经济数据的发布受到影响。原定于近期公布的十月非农就业报告已被推迟，这将是连续第二个月无法按时获得关键就业数据。 根据现有信息分析，杰斐逊 认为过去几个月美国整体经济形势保持相对稳定，经济继续以温和速度扩张，同时劳动力市场正在逐步降温。在通胀方面，他表示年度通胀率与一年前水平 相近，这主要受到外部因素影响，但同时也有迹象显示核心通胀可能正朝着百分之二的政策目标稳步靠拢。 在讨论经济前景时，杰斐逊还谈及人工智能技术发展的影响。他表示目前要准确评估AI对劳动力市场和价格水平的实际影响还为时过早。他指出，近期在 招聘模式、生产率增长和通胀变化中观察到的部分现象，可能反映了人工智能技术推动的变革，但具体影响程度仍难以确定。 美联储副主席杰斐逊近日表示，随着货币政策逐渐接近中性水平，美联储在未来的决策中应当保持谨慎态度。这一表态发生在美联储上周决定降息二十五个 基点之后，引发市场对后续政策路径的广泛关注。 在出席德国央行一场活动时，杰斐逊指出当前货币政策立场已从明显紧缩转向接近中性水平 ...

CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) and turned from a year-on-year decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%[4] - The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion[4] - The rise in food CPI was primarily driven by weather-related increases in fresh vegetables and fruits, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%[6] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value: flat) and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.1% (previous value: -2.3%) in October[16] - Sector analysis shows that coal prices rose due to increased heating demand in northern regions, while non-ferrous metals also saw price increases[18] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to continue rising in November due to improved tailing factors and the ongoing recovery in core inflation[21] - Key challenges include the pace of pork production capacity reduction and the balance between supply surplus and weak demand, which may pressure oil prices[21] - The M1 money supply growth is rebounding, which could support PPI improvement, but overall economic momentum remains insufficient[21]

Group 1: CPI Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics will release October's consumer price index (CPI) data on November 9 at 9:30 AM [1] - In September, the national CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, marking the first return to 1% in nearly 19 months [2] - Multiple institutions predict a rebound in October's CPI, with estimates ranging from -0.1% to 0.1% [2] - Pork prices continue to negatively impact the CPI, with wholesale prices declining year-on-year from -26.3% to -27.2% in October [2] - Prices for 28 monitored vegetables and 7 monitored fruits are expected to improve, with year-on-year declines narrowing from -18.7% and -5.3% to -10.0% and -2.7%, respectively [2] Group 2: PPI Insights - Institutions anticipate a slight increase in the year-on-year decline of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, reflecting weak short-term economic performance [4] - In September, the national PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month [4] - Forecasts for October's PPI year-on-year change range from -2.2% to -2.6% [4] - The PMI for major raw material purchase prices and factory prices fell by 0.7 percentage points compared to September, indicating a potential month-on-month PPI decline [5] - The fluctuation in PPI is influenced by international commodity prices and domestic industry competition, with expectations of a year-on-year PPI decline of -2.6% and a month-on-month decline of -0.6% [5]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, up from 50 in September, indicating economic expansion and surpassing market expectations of 50.8[2] - The services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.2%[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, recovering from a loss of 29,000 in September, suggesting a slowdown in job losses[1] - The price index for services rose to 70, the highest since 2022, indicating persistent inflation pressures in the services sector[2] - Core inflation is beginning to stabilize due to tariff transmission and reduced labor supply[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a potential pause in December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate around 3.8% (target range 3.75%-4%) [1] - Further rate cuts may occur next year, with a target federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% by year-end as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]