Core Insights - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for September rose less than expected, indicating a potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates next week [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, marking the slowest growth in three months, and rose by 3% year-over-year [1] - The lower-than-expected data may encourage policymakers to consider another rate cut in December, especially in light of the ongoing government shutdown and the inability to release other official data [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone's unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.2% in August, indicating a strong labor market but with a slowdown in job growth, raising risks of future unemployment increases as labor force expands [2] - Eurozone's inflation rate rose from 2.0% to 2.2% in September, driven by energy price base effects, aligning with expectations and potentially reaffirming the European Central Bank's outlook [3] - The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone was slightly adjusted from 49.5 to 49.8 in September, indicating weakened manufacturing momentum, with expectations of further economic softening by year-end [3] Group 2 - In the US, the ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000, suggesting overall labor market weakness [4] - The ISM manufacturing index rose from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, slightly above expectations, but production and employment growth were offset by declines in new and export orders [4] - The Swedish manufacturing PMI increased from 55.3 to 55.6 in September, supported by job and new order growth, with no significant impact from tariffs on production plans or supply chains [4][5] Group 3 - Norwegian manufacturing PMI rose from 49.6 to 49.9 in September, indicating a continued moderate slowdown, with mixed data on new orders and improvements in production and employment [5] - European stock markets saw significant gains, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 1.2%, driven by investor confidence amid US government issues, while the S&P 500 index also reached a historical high [5] - Pfizer and the US government reached an agreement on tariff reductions, benefiting pharmaceutical and biotech stocks, while EU steel manufacturers' stocks rose due to potential cuts in steel import quotas [5]

Core Insights - India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.07% year-on-year in August, marking the first increase in 10 months and up from a revised 1.61% in July, signaling a warning for policymakers [1][2] - Despite the rise, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2% to 6%, with food prices showing a significant improvement as the decline narrowed to 0.69% from 1.76% in July [1][2] - Core inflation has increased to nearly 4%, driven by rising prices in services such as healthcare and personal care, indicating underlying economic pressures [1][2] Economic Factors - The normal rainfall in India for the 2025 monsoon season has positively impacted agricultural production, stabilizing vegetable prices and alleviating food inflation risks [2] - Strong demand in the service sector, reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remaining in expansion territory for 16 consecutive months, is contributing to price rigidity in related services [2] - Input cost pressures from geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics are gradually affecting consumer prices, particularly in manufacturing sectors [2] Policy Implications - The moderate rise in inflation reflects a delicate balance between stimulating economic recovery and maintaining price stability, complicating policy decisions for the Indian government and central bank [2] - The core inflation increase and sticky service prices are constraining the central bank's ability to maintain an accommodative monetary policy [2] - The Indian government has announced a new round of tax reforms, which has positively impacted market sentiment and may represent a proactive step in addressing inflation concerns [3] Future Considerations - Key variables to monitor include whether food inflation will reverse with the end of the monsoon season and increased festive demand, and if service sector demand can remain robust amid potential interest rate hikes [3] - The current inflation rebound necessitates careful observation beyond seasonal factors to assess the true inflation landscape in India [3]

Core Insights - U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in August exceeded expectations, indicating strong consumer resilience [1] - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [1] - The core PCE price index, a key focus for the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.2% from July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between the 10-day and 200-day moving averages, with the latest rate at 148.0100, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, but Powell's hawkish tone has reinforced the resilience of the US dollar [1] - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, marking the slowest growth since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at its upcoming two-day meeting due to the slowdown in core inflation and domestic political uncertainty [1] - The indicator excluding fresh food and energy showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.4% [1] - Investors are focused on the policy guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda after the meeting, with a potential 25 basis point rate hike in October still being considered [1] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate broke through the resistance level of 147.50-147.60 and surpassed the 148.00 mark, indicating a bullish technical outlook [1] - The daily momentum indicators suggest that buying pressure is increasing [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 200-day moving average of 148.55-148.60, with potential challenges to the 149.00 and 149.20 levels if broken [2]

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4%, with a 7:2 vote in favor, indicating a dovish stance among some members who support a 25 basis point cut [2] - The quantitative tightening scale is reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, effective from October [2] - Inflation remains a concern, with August inflation at 3.8%, nearly double the target, and expected to reach 4% this month [3] Group 2: Japan's Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of August, still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, but marking the lowest increase in nine months [3] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates stable at 0.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] Group 3: Russia's Tax Policy - President Putin announces tax increases to address budget deficits, raising corporate tax from 20% to 25% starting January 1, 2025, and implementing a progressive personal income tax system [3] - The government plans to increase VAT from 20% to 22% by 2026 to counteract declining energy revenues and rising defense spending [3] Group 4: US Labor Market - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 231,000, marking the largest drop in nearly four years, exceeding expectations [4] - Despite the decline in initial claims, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, with the average unemployment duration extending to 24.5 weeks, the longest since April 2022 [4] Group 5: Nvidia and Intel Partnership - Nvidia announces a $5 billion investment in Intel, becoming one of its largest shareholders with over 4% ownership, aimed at joint development of PC and data center chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock rose by 22.77%, while Nvidia's increased by 3.49% [6] Group 6: Google's AI Integration - Google plans to integrate its self-developed AI model, Gemini, into the Chrome browser, enhancing user experience with features like webpage content explanation and multi-tab information integration [8] - This move is a strategic response to competition from OpenAI and other companies that have recently launched AI browser tools [8] Group 7: Microsoft's AI Data Center Investment - Microsoft announces a $7.3 billion investment in Wisconsin to build two AI data centers, deploying tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs, significantly enhancing computational power [8] - This investment is seen as a critical step for Microsoft to strengthen its AI infrastructure amid competition from OpenAI and Oracle [8] Group 8: SoftBank's Vision Fund Restructuring - SoftBank confirms a 20% workforce reduction in its Vision Fund, marking the third round of layoffs since 2022 [9] - This restructuring follows a record quarterly investment return of ¥726.8 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards AI investments, including a planned $500 billion project [9] Group 9: Hyundai's Production Strategy - Hyundai adjusts its production strategy in response to US tariffs, lowering its operating profit margin target from 7%-8% to 6%-7% due to a loss of 4.248 billion won from tariffs [10] - The company anticipates a recovery in profit margins by 2027, aiming for 7%-8% and 8%-9% by 2030 [10]

Inflation Data Summary - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% and down from the previous month's 0.0%[3] - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from a previous decline of 3.6%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 18 months and continuing to improve for four consecutive months[5] Price Dynamics - Food prices significantly dragged down the overall CPI, with food items declining by 4.3% year-on-year, compared to a 1.6% decline in the previous month[5] - Pork prices saw a substantial drop of 16.1% year-on-year, contributing to the weaker-than-expected CPI data[5] - Service items and industrial consumer goods prices remained stable, with service CPI increasing by 0.6% year-on-year and industrial consumer goods rising by 1.5%[5] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month change stabilized at 0.0%, marking the first halt in decline since November 2024[8] - Upstream prices showed notable stabilization, particularly in black metal mining and smelting, with increases of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively[8] - Downstream industrial product prices showed minimal improvement, with automotive and general machinery PPI declining slightly[8] Future Outlook - The weak August CPI reflects a significant divergence in consumption structure, primarily influenced by high base effects and supply-side factors[6] - There is potential for CPI to gradually recover post high base effects, especially if international commodity prices rebound and domestic policies align[10]

Core Insights - There are signs that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumer prices, although the transmission is slow [1] - In August, core goods prices in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% increases in June and July [1] - Year-on-year, core goods prices increased by 1.5%, marking the fastest growth since May 2023 [1] - Automobile prices have risen again, with some metrics showing a significant increase [1] - Despite the rise in goods prices, a decline in service prices has kept overall core inflation steady at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1] - This inflation data is likely to reassure the Federal Reserve, indicating that a rate cut in September will not pose excessive risks to its price stability mission [1]

Group 1 - The August consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to proceed with interest rate cuts during its policy meeting on September 16-17, despite the inflation data [1] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July's figures [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]