Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume sharply declined, and the contract is in the process of position transfer. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand is still weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengzhou cotton's main 2509 contract decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume decreased significantly, and the contract is in the position - transfer stage. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,677 (-135) sheets, with registered warehouse receipts at 8,329 (-135) sheets and valid forecasts at 348 (+0) sheets [3]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that the global cotton trade volume will remain stable at 9.7 million tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 25.9 million tons, slightly exceeding the expected consumption of 25.6 million tons. India will maintain its position as the country with the largest cotton - planting area, accounting for 38% of the global total. China is expected to continue leading in cotton production, accounting for 24% of the global total, and remain the largest cotton consumer, with an expected consumption of 8.2 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total. The ICAC estimates the cotton price for the next season to range from 57 to 94 cents/pound, with a median of 73 cents/pound [3][4]. - As of August 4, 2025, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 98%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The flower positions were mainly on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, with an average boll number of 8.6, an increase of 1.4 from the previous period [4]. - US President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continuous import of Russian oil. The new tariff will take effect 21 days after August 7, and the comprehensive tax rate for some Indian goods will rise to 50% [4]. - The cotton - picking operation in South Texas, USA, has expanded, and there has been continuous rainfall in the southeastern cotton - growing area. In Brazil, the cotton - picking progress in the main production area continues to advance. As of August 1, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state increased by 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% month - on - month, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The situation of the war makes an immediate cease - fire unlikely. The international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand [16]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The main contract is in the position - transfer stage. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand remains weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The market sentiment is low because of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. - In the domestic market, although the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well, it is still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest this year and the weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose 0.66%, closing at 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff measures and the expectation of a bumper harvest, the US cotton fell 1.19% overnight, closing at 66.42 cents/pound on ICE. [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 30, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,032 (-123), including 8,684 (-123) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts. - As of July 31, 2025, the national new cotton picking and delivery were basically completed. The national processing rate was 100%, the same as the previous year and the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher than the previous year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.483 million tons, an increase of 1.181 million tons compared with the previous year and 1.05 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. - Argentina's main cotton - producing area, Chaco Province, has completed the new cotton harvest, with the national harvest progress reaching 90% and the processing progress reaching 80%. - As of the week ending July 29, cotton speculators' net short positions increased by 1,467 lots to 52,972 lots. - As of July 24, 2025, the cumulative net signed export of US cotton in the 2024/25 season was 2.783 million tons, reaching 108.35% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.593 million tons, with a shipment rate of 93.17%. [3][4][5] 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions. [7][10][14][15] 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% in July, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. Although the GDP increased by 3% in the second quarter, the deterioration of the employment market has made investors bet on the Fed to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in advance. - The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as the continuous loosening of global cotton supply - demand and weak export demand for US cotton. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has reduced market enthusiasm. - Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is de - stocking well but still at a high level. With the high possibility of a new cotton bumper harvest and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited. [16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation with various factors influencing prices. Supply is considered neutral, with potential for increased Chinese production in 2025/26 despite USDA's prediction of a double - decline. Demand is downward, as cotton prices are weaker than棉纱, and spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low. Inventory is in a neutral state, with the de - stocking speed accelerating. The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend, and opportunities for 11 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA's July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons. The US cotton planting area in 2025 will decrease by 12% year - on - year. China's 2025/26 cotton production is revised up by 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons, while import demand is reduced by 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. There is still room for an increase in China's cotton production due to good weather and strong expansion intentions in Xinjiang [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are relatively weaker than 棉纱 this week, and the spot transaction price is falling. Spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low in the off - season, while weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: As of mid - July, the social cotton inventory is 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, with a month - on - month decline of 8.26%. The de - stocking speed is the fastest of the year. The industrial inventory of spinning mills continues to decline, and inland spinning mills are not enthusiastic about stocking raw materials [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 8,807, with 348 valid forecasts, and the total amount of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 366,200 tons, down from 384,600 tons on July 25 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price falls with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, due to the withdrawal of some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang and poor overall demand prospects, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - **Macro**: The previous macro - positive expectations in China have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a significant month - on - month decline. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data was significantly revised down. The commodity attribute is bearish in the next few months, while the macro - attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [6]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend. It is advisable to lay out 11 - 1 reverse spreads at high levels [6]. 02. Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton supply and demand situation shows changes in various indicators such as inventory, production, consumption, etc. For example, the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.47 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 25.64 million tons [14]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. China's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.24% [15]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The demand of main cotton - consuming countries also shows different trends. For example, China's cotton consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% [16]. - **US Cotton Weather**: The USDA's planting intention report shows that the US cotton planting area in 2025 is expected to be 10.12 million acres, higher than market expectations, which brings pressure to the market [18]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking, and the clothing inventory of wholesalers and retailers is turning from de - stocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the relaxation of tariffs and previous import - rushing behaviors, the retailer inventory has reached a high point, weakening the continuous restocking behavior [29]. - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: Domestic new - year cotton planting area is expanding, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area shows an increasing trend [34]. - **Cotton Imports**: Cotton and 棉纱 imports are relatively low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas [35]. - **Cotton Industry Chain Inventory**: The inventory situation of the cotton industry chain includes the inventory of spinning mills and weaving mills, and the de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast [57]. - **Spinning Profits**: Spinning profits are still poor [45]. - **Industry Chain Downstream Startup Rates**: The startup rates of the downstream of the industry chain, including spinning mills and weaving mills, are also presented in the report [48][51]. - **Cotton and Substitute Price Spreads**: The price spreads between cotton and its substitutes are also analyzed [54].

Report Summary 1. Market Review - The main cotton futures contract closed with a small negative line this week. The closing price was 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close [1] 2. News - The improvement of US unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy. Brazilian association data shows a 7% year - on - year increase in cotton production, and consumption is on par with the average of the past five years. In China, high temperatures in Xinjiang this week have affected cotton growth [2] 3. Fundamentals - In terms of supply, it is generally tight. Port inventories are at a 20 - month low, and domestic cotton destocking was evident this week. On the demand side, downstream textile mills are in the off - season, with a declining operating rate. Enterprises are replenishing inventory normally. Cotton inventory decreased by 267 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 8.53% [3] 4. Global Supply and Demand Forecast - The USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast monthly report shows that in the 2024/25 season, global production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been revised down [5]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market has a complex situation with both supply - demand and external factor impacts [7] - Macroscopically, there are tariff disturbances as Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU on August 1st. The USDA July monthly supply - demand report shows a slight adjustment in the global cotton market, with total production up 310,000 tons to 25.78 million tons and total consumption up 80,000 tons to 25.72 million tons, and a slight accumulation of ending stocks. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream industry is weak, and short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain. However, considering the consumption off - season, tariff disturbances, and lack of weather - related impacts, the upside potential should be viewed with caution [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The cotton sales basis is different in different regions. The pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in downstream operating rates, stable yarn prices, and a slight increase in inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the market outlook for July and August is generally pessimistic [7] - **Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**: Tariff disturbances exist. The USDA report shows minor adjustments in the global cotton market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream is weak. Short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain, but the upside potential is limited due to the off - season, tariff issues, and lack of weather impacts [8] 3.2 Industry News - The agricultural rural department's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. Most cotton in China is in the budding to flowering stage, with a development period 4 - 7 days earlier than usual. There is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang in July. The cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in the off - season, and spinning mills are cautious in raw material procurement [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillating market. The overall financial market sentiment provides support, but the market is concerned about the results of the US tariff negotiations. Domestic cotton futures are oscillating strongly, following the financial market sentiment. The price is supported by concerns about tight domestic cotton inventories, but the poor downstream operating conditions limit the upward momentum. Overall, cotton futures are in an oscillating trend. To break through the 14,100 level, more supply - side drivers are needed, and attention should be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation. The risk points are downstream demand and import cotton policies [2][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 69.35 | 69.48 | 67.76 | 68.43 | - 0.89 | - 1.28 | 85,729 | - 38,686 | 148,946 | - 4,046 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13,755 | 13,920 | 13,675 | 13,780 | 20 | 0.15 | 957,445 | - 84,936 | 546,129 | - 44,893 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20,125 | 20,245 | 19,950 | 20,000 | - 105 | - 0.52 | 42,604 | 2,676 | 22,872 | 1,012 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It fell 1.28% this week, mainly due to the US Department of Agriculture's area outlook report on Monday. The 2025 US cotton planting area is 10.12 million acres, higher than the market estimate and the USDA's June forecast. Later, it fluctuated narrowly as the market awaited the US tariff policy deadline [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 0.54 tons, down 13% week - on - week and 66% from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 2.42 tons. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 is 2.7612 million tons, accounting for 110.45% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume is 2.4 million tons, accounting for 87% of the total annual contracts [6]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: As of June 27, the cotton planting area was 5.46 million hectares, 9% lower than last year. Rainfall is generally beneficial for sowing, and the cotton inventory of the Cotton Corporation of India has decreased [7]. - **Turkey**: Cotton imports increased year - on - year, and clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Spinning mills face difficulties such as weak demand, thin profits, and high costs. The current operating rate is 60% - 65% and may decline further [8]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is weak. Crop growth is good, but late - sown cotton may be affected by monsoon rains. The domestic cotton price is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Bangladesh**: Spinning mills have few cotton inquiries. The government's 2% pre - withholding income tax on imports has raised concerns. The market is waiting for the results of the meeting between Bangladesh and the US on tariffs and trade [10]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates**: As of the week ending July 4, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73%, Vietnam's was 64.5%, and Pakistan's was 61% [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Market**: Spot trading is weak, and prices are stable. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The sales basis of cotton spot is basically stable [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, there were 10,067 registered warehouse receipts and 262 pending warehouse receipts of Grade 1 cotton, totaling 10,329 receipts, equivalent to 433,818 tons [12]. - **Downstream Market**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: Trading is average. The price of cotton yarn has increased slightly, but the actual increase is less than the quoted increase. Inland spinning mills are suffering large losses, and Xinjiang spinning mills are near the break - even point. The operating rate of inland spinning mills is declining, and inventory growth has slowed, while Xinjiang spinning mills' inventory is still accumulating rapidly [13]. - **Cotton Fabric Market**: Trading is light, prices have not continued to rise, the operating rate is low at 45%, and inventory is increasing. Both the domestic and foreign markets are lackluster, and fabric mills mainly make small - quantity and on - demand purchases of cotton yarn [13]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), etc., but no specific data analysis is presented [15]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillating trend. The overall financial market sentiment is positive, but attention should be paid to the US tariff policy. Domestic cotton futures are oscillating strongly. To break through the 14,100 level, more supply - side drivers are needed, such as weather problems in Xinjiang. Attention should also be paid to the financial market sentiment and international economic and trade situation. The risk points are downstream demand and import cotton policies [18].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation between 65 to 80 cents per pound in the second half of 2025, lacking strong upward or downward driving forces [1][12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA's June global cotton supply and demand data indicates a slight decrease in the cotton stock-to-use ratio for the 2025/2026 season, down to 65.22%. Production is expected to decrease by 640,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, while consumption is projected to increase by 260,000 tons to 25.64 million tons. Ending stocks are down by 110,000 tons to 16.72 million tons, reflecting a limited decline in the overall stock-to-use ratio [2]. - The import and export dynamics remain balanced, with China, Turkey, and Bangladesh reducing their import volumes, while Pakistan's imports are expected to rise. Brazil and Australia are projected to increase their export expectations, while India's exports are expected to decrease [2]. - The planting and growth conditions for U.S. cotton show a slight delay, with planting rates at 92%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year. The quality of U.S. cotton remains low, with a good-excellent rate of 47%, down 9 percentage points from last year [3]. Export Dynamics - The signing of new contracts for U.S. cotton is cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies. As of June 12, 2025, the weekly signing volume for the 2025/2026 season was 62,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 146%, but previous weeks had shown low activity due to tariff concerns [4]. - India's cotton planting area is increasing, with a reported 3.125 million hectares planted, up by 214,000 hectares from the previous year, driven by higher minimum support prices and favorable weather conditions [5][6]. - Brazil's cotton export momentum has slowed, with a 16% decrease in average daily exports compared to the previous year. The total cotton production for Brazil in the 2024/2025 season is projected at 3.913 million tons, with a slight increase in yield but a decrease in planted area [8][9]. Market Outlook - The global cotton market is characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with uncertainties in tariff policies limiting demand growth. Consequently, significant price increases for U.S. cotton are unlikely without strong driving factors [12].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The industry investment rating suggests the cotton market is "oscillating with a slight upward trend, and low-buying is advisable" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's June global cotton supply and demand forecast shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 710,000 tons, while global consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 304,000 tons. The planting area of cotton in the US in 2025 has decreased by 12% year-on-year to 9.867 million acres, with an 8% reduction in the main producing area of Texas. The planting progress is slow, and the good and excellent rate is 49%, lower than the same period last year. The USDA predicts that the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 3.18 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but the weather in the third quarter remains a key variable [3] - In Xinjiang, China, as the temperature rises, the cotton growth progress has accelerated, generally entering the early flowering stage, and pests have appeared in some cotton fields. The Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory forecasts that most areas in Xinjiang will experience continuous high temperatures above 35°C in the next week, with local short-term heavy precipitation, so the impact of weather changes on cotton growth needs continuous attention [3] - This week, the trend of cotton yarn has been relatively weaker than that of cotton. The spot transaction price has been relatively stable. The processing profit of inland spinning mills has remained around the cash flow. Downstream orders have decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. Spinning mills mainly make rigid-demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude [3] - As of the end of May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April. The monthly decline has exceeded 600,000 tons for three consecutive months, and the de-stocking speed has reached a new high in the same period in recent years. If this pace continues, the inventory may drop to a low level before the new cotton is listed (September - October), intensifying market concerns about tight supply and supporting the futures price [3][32] - As of June 27, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,302 lots, with 302 lots of valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 423,800 tons, compared with 433,400 tons on June 20 [3] - The basis of 31-grade double-28 Xinjiang new cotton against the 05 contract is 950 - 980 yuan/ton, and that of double-29 cotton is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - The overall average cost of ginning plants this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of some ginning plant production capacity in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook for the new season, the expected opening price is not expected to be high [3] - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran shows fragility, but the short-term easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and China's timely introduction of incremental reserve policies have boosted market confidence in the short term through the expectation of monetary easing [3] - Recent cotton price rebounds are mainly due to crowded short-selling funds, low valuations, and the depletion of high-quality domestic cotton caused by reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn this year, which has led to a continuous strengthening of the basis. However, the downstream is in a loss state, so in the short term, attention should be paid to the issuance of sliding-scale import quotas or even state reserve sales that may be triggered by the difficulties faced by spinning mills, which could effectively address the continuously decreasing cotton inventory [3] Summary According to the Directory Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA estimates that the world will continue to accumulate cotton stocks. From the 2020/21 season to the 2024/25 season, the global ending inventory has generally increased, and the inventory-to-use ratio has also risen from 58.54% to 67.97% [5] - The new season is still expected to have an oversupply of cotton globally [8] US Cotton Exports - The export prospects of US cotton in the next season face significant challenges and uncertainties. The trade war poses a major risk to the supply chain, and textile-producing countries are very cautious about forward purchases of US cotton. If China's tariffs on US cotton continue, China's purchases of US cotton in the next season will also remain stagnant. Additionally, Brazil's record-high production will compete with US cotton in the supply market, and the export contracts for US cotton in the 2025/26 season are expected to be signed very slowly [14] Overseas and Domestic Market Conditions - Overseas cotton mill operating rates are relatively stable [18] - In China, the downstream operating rates have slightly rebounded, and the operating rates of weaving factories have steadily increased [21][24] - Chinese cotton spinning enterprises maintain rigid-demand restocking, with insufficient initiative for restocking [27] - In China, the raw material inventory of weaving factories has declined, while the finished product inventory has continued to accumulate [30] - The total volume of new cotton warehouse receipts in China remains high [34]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Sugar Industry**: The records primarily discuss the sugar industry, focusing on Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, along with insights into the wood industry in New Zealand. Key Points Brazil Sugar Production - **Cane Crushing and Sugar Production**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased by 11.85% and 11.64% year-on-year as of May 2025 due to heavy rainfall in April and early May. However, production improved in late May as rainfall decreased, leading to a recovery in sugar production [3][5][6]. - **Total Sugar Production Forecast**: Despite lower yields, the sugar production ratio increased, with total sugar production expected to exceed 40 million tons for the 2025 season [5][6]. - **Ethanol Market**: Ethanol sales in Brazil remained stable year-on-year, with a high market share of hydrous ethanol in the fuel market, indicating a surplus supply of sugarcane [7]. International Sugar Market - **India's Sugar Production**: For the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly to between 32.3 million and 35 million tons due to favorable rainfall and increased procurement prices [11][12]. - **Thailand's Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to good rainfall and an increase in planting area [13]. Domestic Sugar Market (China) - **Production and Sales**: China's sugar production and sales are expected to increase for the 2024/25 season, with a significant reduction in imports. Sugar syrup and premix powder imports have also decreased, positively impacting domestic sugar prices [14][15]. - **Weather Impact**: The weather in Guangxi during the third quarter is crucial for sugarcane yields, with historical data indicating that rainfall during this period significantly affects final yields [16][19]. Wood Industry (New Zealand) - **Current Market Conditions**: The New Zealand wood industry is in a downturn, with low international demand leading to reduced production and exports. The domestic wood futures and spot prices are weak, and a surplus supply is expected in the next two years, followed by a reduction cycle starting in 2027 [4][20][24]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - **Sugar Price Trends**: The sugar prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term due to strong production forecasts in major producing countries. The market is closely monitoring weather conditions that could impact yields [2][19]. - **Wood Price Trends**: The wood market is expected to see a slight rebound in prices, but overall, the market remains in a downtrend due to weak demand [20][31]. Additional Insights - **Export and Inventory Levels**: Brazil's sugar exports from January to May 2025 totaled 9.5381 million tons, a significant decrease year-on-year, with inventories at a low level of 2.8 million tons, down 35.37% [9]. - **Weather Predictions**: Future weather patterns in Brazil indicate potential challenges for sugarcane harvesting in June but favorable conditions from July to September, which could benefit sugarcane growth [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the sugar and wood industries, their production forecasts, market conditions, and price trends.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, national policies, and support from sugar - making enterprises. However, early drought in Guangxi limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, the supply - demand gap is basically stable, and imports are expected to stay at 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: The cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang is stable, leading to a slight increase in planting area, while the planting area in inland areas continues to decline. The climate during sowing and emergence was good, with expected stable yield per unit area. Total cotton output is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from last year. Cotton consumption is expected to be weak due to US tariffs, with consumption expected to be 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and imports to be 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary Price Changes - **Outer - market Quotes**: On May 28 - 29, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.77% from $16.91 to $17.04, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.46% from $65.33 to $65.03 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged on May 28 - 29, 2025. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.04%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.34% [3]. - **Spreads**: Different sugar and cotton spreads showed various changes on May 28 - 29, 2025, with the SR01 - 05 spread decreasing by 5.56%, the SR09 - 01 increasing by 1.65%, etc. [3]. - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged on May 28 - 29, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged on May 28 - 29, 2025 [3]. Options and Warehouse Receipts - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR509C5800, SR509P5800, CF509C13400, and CF509P13400 are 0.0801, 0.0811, 0.0978, and 0.0967 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 28 - 29, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.32% to 31,481, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.46% to 11,157 [3]. Company Information - **Company Overview**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a well - regulated and high - reputation large - scale futures company in China [9]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9].