Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has historically surpassed $4,500 per ounce, driven by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and capital allocation dynamics [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - Weakening U.S. macroeconomic and employment data has strengthened the expectations for risk aversion and interest rate cuts, providing crucial support for gold prices [1] - The market's concerns about further tightening of U.S. monetary policy have diminished, allowing gold to maintain a relatively stable performance despite high prices [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and expectations for liquidity easing are resonating in the market, with the new Fed chair nominee aligning with rate cut expectations [2] - The Fed's recent actions, including a $40 billion monthly liquidity injection, have further supported the upward movement of precious metal prices [2] - Divergent policy adjustments among major global economies, such as the Bank of England's rate cut and the European Central Bank's stable rates, have created a favorable environment for gold prices [2] Group 3: Capital Allocation Demand - There is a rigid growth in capital allocation demand, with private sector funds becoming the dominant force in the gold market [2] - Global gold ETFs have seen six consecutive months of net inflows, with November's inflow reaching $5.2 billion, driven by increased purchases from Asian investors [2] - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as "risk-free" has been damaged, leading long-term funds to view gold as an important alternative asset [2] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are increasingly recognized as a significant factor supporting gold prices, driven by motives such as asset management and preparation for extreme scenarios [3] - Central banks are adjusting their asset allocations between U.S. Treasuries and gold to optimize returns during price volatility [3] - In the context of a reshaping monetary system, central banks are accumulating gold to mitigate uncertainties, which influences the price stability of gold over time [3] Group 5: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, international gold prices are expected to remain in a high volatility range, with liquidity potentially tightening as holiday trading slows [4] - Looking towards 2026, significant investment opportunities in the gold market may arise around February, coinciding with expected increases in U.S. Treasury issuance [4] - The combination of rising debt levels and financing needs may lead to a peak in long-term U.S. Treasury supply, potentially driving gold prices higher [4]

Group 1 - Precious metals have experienced significant price increases, with spot gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $4,525, and showing an annual increase of over 70%, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [1] - Spot silver has also reached a historic high, breaking $70 per ounce and peaking at $72, with an annual increase exceeding 150%. The silver market has faced a supply shortage for five consecutive years, while industrial demand continues to grow, supporting the price fundamentals [1] - Spot platinum has crossed $2,300 per ounce for the first time, with an annual increase of over 150%, representing the largest annual gain since data compilation began in 1987 [1] - Spot palladium has risen above $1,900 per ounce, reaching a high of $1,960, marking the first increase since the end of 2022 [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the collective and unexpected surge in precious metals to a combination of expectations for liquidity easing, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances in the industry [1] - It is noted that precious metals, excluding gold, have strong industrial characteristics, and fluctuations in supply and demand can significantly amplify market sentiment, indicating a speculative environment that requires additional caution for related investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with continued price increases in technology hardware and rising metal demand driven by emerging technologies, alongside expectations of monetary easing leading to higher non-ferrous metal prices. Meanwhile, domestic demand shows marginal improvement in service consumption, but the real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The global AI infrastructure is driving demand in the electronics supply chain, leading to significant price increases in high-end memory chips, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 reaching $56.9 and $26.7 respectively, reflecting increases of 12.1% and 1.8% [3]. - The service consumption sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increasing by 11.2% week-on-week and 56.2% year-on-year, and the Hainan tourism price index rising by 0.9% [2]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of actions to boost consumption, suggesting potential unexpected policy space for consumption on both supply and demand sides by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Real Estate and Durable Goods - The real estate market remains weak, with a 21.5% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, particularly in first and second-tier cities where declines are 36.3% and 23.2% respectively [2]. - Sales pressure in durable goods is evident, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars down 17% year-on-year, and domestic sales of household air conditioners dropping by 39.8% [2]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - The manufacturing sector maintains stable operating rates, with construction demand continuing to face challenges, leading to low price fluctuations in steel and building materials [3]. - Coal prices have significantly decreased, while international metal prices have surged due to expectations of interest rate cuts following a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI [3]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand shows a slight increase, with domestic and international flight operations up by 1.0% and 1.5% respectively, although long-distance travel demand has decreased [4]. - In freight logistics, there is a slight fluctuation in demand, with highway truck traffic increasing by 2.0% while railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% [4].

Core Insights - The global precious metals market experienced a significant rally on December 24, with gold, silver, platinum, and copper all reaching historical highs, driven by multiple factors including liquidity expectations, geopolitical risks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1][3]. Gold Market - London spot gold prices broke through $4,500 per ounce, reaching a new historical record, with a year-to-date increase of approximately $1,880 per ounce, translating to a 64% rise when priced in Chinese yuan [2][4]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the weak U.S. labor market, as indicated by the November unemployment rate, which supports ongoing monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve [4]. - Central banks worldwide have been buying gold in large quantities, providing a solid foundation for the current bull market, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust, which saw its holdings increase by over 20% this year [4]. Silver Market - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with London silver reaching $72.255 per ounce and a year-to-date increase exceeding 150% [6]. - The rise in silver prices is driven by both investment and industrial demand, with significant imports in major consumer countries like India, particularly during festive seasons [6]. - The global silver market is experiencing a structural shortage, as demand has consistently outstripped mine production for five consecutive years, exacerbated by the accelerating transition to green energy [6]. Platinum Market - Platinum has emerged as the standout performer among precious metals, with prices surpassing $2,300 per ounce, marking a 150% increase year-to-date, the best annual performance since data collection began in 1987 [7]. - The hydrogen energy sector is creating new demand for platinum, which is used as a catalyst in hydrogen fuel applications, indicating a shift in price dynamics away from traditional precious metal frameworks [7]. - Supply disruptions in major producing countries like South Africa are contributing to a third consecutive year of supply shortages in the platinum market [7]. Copper Market - Copper prices reached a historical high of $12,159.50 per ton, driven by global supply chain tensions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [3][8]. - The supply shortage is a critical factor in rising copper prices, with multiple mines facing production interruptions and preemptive stockpiling due to potential tariff policies [8]. - The long-term demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, supported by global energy transition and infrastructure development, although high prices may suppress some consumption and encourage the development of alternative materials [8].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing a significant surge, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all reaching historical price milestones due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold has historically surpassed $4,500 per ounce, peaking at $4,525, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver has also reached a historical high, breaking $70 per ounce and peaking at $72, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 150%, driven by a continuous supply shortage and growing industrial demand [1] Group 3: Platinum Market - Spot platinum has crossed $2,300 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 150%, representing the largest annual gain since data compilation began in 1987 [1] Group 4: Palladium Market - Spot palladium has surpassed $1,900 per ounce, reaching a high of $1,960, marking the first increase since the end of 2022 [1] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The collective and unexpected surge in precious metals is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing expectations, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances, which have created a resonating effect [1] - It is noted that precious metals other than gold have strong industrial characteristics, and fluctuations in supply and demand can amplify market sentiment, indicating a speculative environment that requires careful investment consideration [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Influence factors: Affected by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices have strengthened again. Silver benefits from supply - demand imbalance and continuous inflow of ETF holdings, with funds boosting price elasticity. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain high and strong, but risks of sharp fluctuations exist due to accumulated leverage risks and potential weakening of macro - drivers. The better - than - expected Q3 GDP growth in the US weakens rate - cut expectations and may suppress prices. The short - term unilateral strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6]. - Medium - to - long - term view: In the long run, the Fed's easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased dollar credit risks will drive up the demand for precious metals. Gold prices are likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.4% to $4479.01 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $69.34 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 1.4% to $4511.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $69.41 per ounce. AU2602 rose 1.3% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and AG2602 rose 1.4% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price rose 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price fell 20.0%, the spread of gold TD - London rose 2.6%, and the spread of silver TD - London rose - 12.3%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.1%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.9%. The spread of AU2604 - 2602 rose 30.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 rose 50.0% [5]. 3. Position Data - As of December 22, 2025, compared with December 19, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 1.14% to 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV rose 3.32% to 16599.25081 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 2.74%, non - commercial short positions rose 1.89%, and net long positions rose 2.91%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions rose 10.71%, non - commercial short positions rose 0.92%, and net long positions rose 16.07% [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.18% to 93711 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory fell 0.20% to 899663 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.68% to 450643486 troy ounces [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell - 0.07% to 7.05. The US dollar index fell - 0.46% to 98.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell - 1.15% to 3.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.17%, the VIX fell - 5.57% to 14.08, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6878.49, and NYWEX crude oil rose 2.49% to 57.95 [5]. 6. Market Review - On December 23, 2023, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.73% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 4.3% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-24 联储降息预期回摆，⾦银新⾼后"V 型"震荡 地缘政治⻛险加剧、美元⾛软、央⾏持续购⾦及明年美国利率下调预期的 共振下，⻩⾦、⽩银价格均续创历史新⾼。⽽美国第三季度GDP数据超预 期影响下降息预期回摆，美元有所冲⾼，⾦银价格⾃新⾼回落。⻩⾦价格 下⾏空间或有限，地缘紧张局势升级、央⾏购⾦及联储降息预期的影响持 续存在。⽩银⽅⾯，近期⼀些⾼位获利可能引发短期整合，短线波动或放 ⼤，但整体趋势仍然是积极的。 重点资讯： 1） 美国10月耐用品订单月率为-2.2%，不及预期的-1.5%和前值0. 7%；其中扣除国防的耐用品订单月率为-1.5%，前值0.1%；扣除运输 的耐用品订单月率为0.2%，不及预期0.3%和前值0.7%。 2） 美国11月工业产出月率为0.2%，预期、前值均为0.1%；11月制 造业产出月率为0%，预期0.1%，前值0%。11月产能利用率为76%，预 期、前值均为75.9%。 3） 美国第三季度GDP季率、个人消费支出季率、以及GDP价格指 数初值均超出预期和前值。其中，第三季度实际GDP年化季率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by supply-demand balance, geopolitical risk premiums, and expectations of liquidity easing, with current prices reaching new highs since June 2022 [1][2]. Market Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of 1 tin in the Changjiang spot market is quoted at 336,500-338,500 CNY per ton, with an average of 337,500 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 4,000 CNY per ton from the previous day [1]. - The cumulative increase over three days exceeds 5.5%, with the Shanghai tin futures contract closing at 338,410 CNY per ton, marking a 1% rise [1]. Macroeconomic Influences - The latest U.S. CPI data for November shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2]. - Easing liquidity conditions globally are supporting risk assets, including tin, while China's economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand are enhancing market confidence [2]. - Geopolitical risks related to the supply chain of critical minerals are adding a risk premium to tin prices, alongside disruptions in supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and logistical issues in Cambodia [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by structural tightness with limited marginal improvements, primarily due to slow recovery in Myanmar, policy restrictions in Indonesia, and ongoing raw material shortages [3]. - Global refined tin production is declining, and visible inventories are at historically low levels, amplifying the price impact of any supply disruptions [3]. - Demand is transitioning with traditional sectors like consumer electronics facing weakness, while emerging sectors such as AI servers, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics are becoming key growth drivers [3][5]. Industry Structure and Challenges - The upstream sector is dominated by a few major regions, facing challenges from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks, which restrict effective supply release [3]. - The midstream sector is under pressure due to high raw material costs and inefficiencies, pushing the industry towards higher efficiency and concentration through technological upgrades [4]. - The downstream sector is witnessing a structural transformation, with traditional demand stagnating while high-end applications in emerging industries are driving growth [5]. Short-term Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, balancing supply disruptions and cost support against weak demand and inventory pressures [5]. - Key factors influencing this balance include the actual recovery of supply from major producing regions and the efficiency of cost transmission to downstream demand [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest - rate meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, liquidity - driven soft - landing trades are heating up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate Hassert has a rising nomination probability, which could lead to a smooth phase for liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risk trades [5]. - Domestic macro: The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive, and it is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals sector and high - financial - attribute varieties in the non - ferrous metals sector such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to industrial - attribute commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. The equity index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings and is defensive [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Attention should be paid to the overcrowding of small - cap funds [6]. - Stock index options: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include the possibility of the option market's liquidity falling short of expectations [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors to watch are policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff - related factors [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: With the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and tight silver spot supply, they are expected to oscillate upward in the short term, with silver having greater elasticity. Attention should be paid to the US economic performance, Fed monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: After the peak season in the third quarter, the market is facing loading pressure and lacks upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [6]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is still weak, and attention should be paid to cost support, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [6]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Factors to watch include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [6]. - Coke: Supported by cost, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the spot price continues to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost support exists, but there is a lack of upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Silicomanganese: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and the market is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - Glass: Supply cuts have been implemented, and the spot price has risen, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on spot sales [6]. - Soda ash: Downstream low - price replenishment has led to a slight increase in the spot price, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [6]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have led to a short - term decline in copper prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, unexpected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends [6]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - Zinc: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery [6]. - Lead: Secondary lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [6]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply release [6]. - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly rebounded, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - Tin: Supply constraints still exist, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and expected demand improvement [6]. - Industrial silicon: Sentiment fluctuates, but supply is abundant, and the price is oscillating in the short term. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly strengthened, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [8]. - LPG: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments, with a short - term outlook of oscillation [8]. - Asphalt: The futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is weakly oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the crude oil market and oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. The focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - Methanol: There is some support at the 2100 level, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - energy and overseas developments [8]. - Urea: High inventory and cost support co - exist, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference [8]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimistic sentiment is hard to reverse, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions [8]. - PX: The market lacks clear guidance, and the cost - emotion game maintains oscillation, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: New Fengming has started new production and stopped old production, and short - term new supply is limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - Short - fiber: Downstream factories are digesting previous inventory, and processing fees are expected to be compressed, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [8]. - Bottle chips: Cost is stagnant, and supply - demand drivers are limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: Downstream transactions have improved limitedly, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - conditions [8]. - PP: Fundamental support is limited, and the market weakens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Plastic: Short - term maintenance has decreased, and the market is in a weak pattern, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Styrene: Concerns about over - inventory still exist, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [8]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has improved, and waiting for positive factors to ferment, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [8]. - Protein meal: Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are weather, domestic demand, macro - conditions, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - Corn/starch: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand, macro - conditions, and weather [8]. - Live pigs: Producers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the price oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - Natural rubber: The market is oscillating and adjusting, and the bearish sentiment remains, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - Synthetic rubber: The market has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factor is significant crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand and inventory [8]. - Sugar: The strategy is to sell at high prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are imports and Brazilian production [8]. - Pulp: The futures price has risen with increased trading volume, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [8]. - Offset paper: It follows the pulp market and strengthens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up [8]. - Logs: The market is oscillating at the bottom, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest rate meeting was overall dovish. With the US fundamentals and inflation both in a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity further heated up. The SEP of this meeting showed an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the relatively dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and assumption of office, it may be the most fluent stage for trading on liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [7]. - Domestic macro: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference was moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [7]. - Asset views: The current macro environment is still beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metal varieties with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be maintained on other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The combination of strong demand for industrial products from emerging markets and expected interest rate cuts in the US is favorable for industrial commodities. The supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum are still tight, which may stimulate their further strengthening. The equity - index futures may lack upward momentum after the important meetings, and are relatively defensive [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations 3.1.1 Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures: CSI 300 futures rose 1.75% daily, 0.09% weekly, 1.61% monthly, - 0.86% quarterly, and 16.76% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures rose 1.21% daily, 0.01% weekly, 0.81% monthly, - 0.06% quarterly, and 11.55% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures rose 1.95% daily, - 0.38% weekly, 2.47% monthly, - 1.97% quarterly, and 25.54% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures rose 1.47% daily, - 0.91% weekly, 0.47% monthly, - 1.50% quarterly, and 24.73% year - to - date [2][4]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures rose 0.01% daily, - 0.03% weekly, 0.05% monthly, 0.14% quarterly, and - 0.52% year - to - date; 5 - year bond futures rose 0.04% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.09% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 0.66% year - to - date; 10 - year bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.02% weekly, 0.06% monthly, 0.44% quarterly, and - 0.84% year - to - date; 30 - year bond futures rose 0.67% daily, - 0.29% weekly, - 2.05% monthly, - 1.26% quarterly, and - 5.63% year - to - date [2][4]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was flat daily, - 0.18% weekly, - 1.23% monthly, 0.41% quarterly, and - 9.46% year - to - date; the euro - US dollar exchange rate had 0 pips daily change, 6 pips weekly, 146 pips monthly, 13 pips quarterly, and 1394 pips year - to - date; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was flat daily, - 0.71% weekly, - 0.92% monthly, 4.60% quarterly, and - 1.57% year - to - date [2][4]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate had 0 bp daily change, 2 bp weekly, - 2 bp monthly, 3 bp quarterly, and - 27 bp year - to - date; the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had - 0.3 bp daily change, 0.6 bp weekly, 0.5 bp monthly, - 1.5 bp quarterly, and 0.2 bp year - to - date; the 10Y US government bond yield had - 3 bp daily change, - 4 bp weekly, 0.01 bp monthly, - 1 bp quarterly, and - 40 bp year - to - date [2][4]. - Shipping and precious metals: The European container shipping route rose 0.77% daily, 1.31% weekly, 15.48% monthly, 3.47% quarterly, and - 24.69% year - to - date; gold rose 0.85% daily, 0.93% weekly, 2.70% monthly, 11.74% quarterly, and 58.63% year - to - date; silver rose 5.77% daily, 4.16% weekly, 21.88% monthly, 41.69% quarterly, and 107.66% year - to - date [2][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper rose 0.98% daily, - 1.43% weekly, 6.20% monthly, 11.76% quarterly, and 25.82% year - to - date; aluminum rose 0.32% daily, - 1.15% weekly, 1.22% monthly, 5.87% quarterly, and 10.79% year - to - date; zinc fell - 0.26% daily, - 2.69% weekly, 2.43% monthly, 5.01% quarterly, and - 9.78% year - to - date [2][4]. - Black metals and building materials: Iron ore rose 0.92% daily, 0.99% weekly, 0.00% monthly, 1.12% quarterly, and - 1.41% year - to - date; coke rose 1.06% daily, 3.76% weekly, - 2.79% monthly, - 5.70% quarterly, and - 15.54% year - to - date; coking coal fell - 0.52% daily, 4.48% weekly, - 7.81% monthly, - 12.38% quarterly, and - 8.49% year - to - date [2][4]. 3.1.2 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil fell - 2.66% daily, - 4.10% weekly, - 5.66% monthly, - 11.63% quarterly, and - 23.24% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil fell - 2.52% daily, - 3.89% weekly, - 5.58% monthly, - 11.05% quarterly, and - 21.37% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas fell - 2.43% daily, - 3.97% weekly, - 19.00% monthly, 18.22% quarterly, and 8.40% year - to - date [3][4]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell - 0.05% daily, rose 0.06% weekly, 1.78% monthly, 11.44% quarterly, and 64.14% year - to - date; COMEX silver fell - 0.52% daily, rose 2.75% weekly, 11.75% monthly, 36.20% quarterly, and 117.80% year - to - date [3][4]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper fell - 0.57% daily, rose 0.58% weekly, 3.97% monthly, 12.85% quarterly, and 32.31% year - to - date; LME aluminum rose 0.26% daily, 0.26% weekly, 0.61% monthly, 7.28% quarterly, and 12.93% year - to - date; LME zinc fell - 1.94% daily, - 3.31% weekly, - 0.52% monthly, 2.66% quarterly, and 1.54% year - to - date [3][4]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans fell - 0.91% daily, - 1.21% weekly, - 6.51% monthly, 6.25% quarterly, and 5.27% year - to - date; CBOT corn fell - 0.80% daily, - 1.02% weekly, - 2.62% monthly, 4.81% quarterly, and - 4.96% year - to - date; CBOT wheat fell - 2.26% daily, - 3.92% weekly, - 5.48% monthly, 0.30% quarterly, and - 7.62% year - to - date [3][4]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with attention on the over - crowding of small - cap funds [8]. - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market trading volume slightly declined, with attention on the under - expected liquidity in the options market [8]. - Bond futures are expected to fluctuate as the bond market remains weak, with attention on policy, fundamental - repair, and tariff - factor surprises [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and economic - trade tensions ease, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity - market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, with attention on the rate of freight - price decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon, manganese - silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to fluctuate, with various factors such as special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, and cost support being the focus [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to fluctuate, with factors like trade frictions, inventory changes, and supply - side disturbances being the focus [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, propylene, PP, plastics, styrene, PVC, caustic soda, and oils are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as OPEC+ production policy, cost - end progress, and supply disturbances being the focus [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Protein meal, corn/starch, and synthetic rubber are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as weather, domestic demand, and crude - oil price fluctuations being the focus; natural rubber, cotton, sugar, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as demand, inventory, and macro - economic changes being the focus [11].