12月24日，全球贵金属市场迎来集体狂欢。 伦敦现货黄金价格盘中突破每盎司4500美元，刷新历史纪录。 纽约白银期货以及伦敦现货白银价格均升破每盎司72美元关口，年内涨幅远超黄金。 现货铂金历史上首次突破2300美元/盎司，年内累涨超150%，为1987年开始汇编相关数据以来的最大年 度涨幅。 世界黄金协会数据显示，各国央行的持续大量买入为此轮黄金牛市提供了坚实基础。与此同时，资金正 源源不断地流入黄金ETF，今年除5月外，全球黄金ETF的总持仓量每个月都在上升。 其中，全球最大的贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust，其持仓量今年已增长超过五分之 一。 Muthoot Fincorp的首席经济学家指出，近几个月流入黄金ETF的资金主要来自散户投资者，其资金黏性 较低，这可能意味着金价的波动性仍将维持在较高水平。 对于未来走势，高盛集团预测，金价在2026年的基准情景下将达到每盎司4900美元。 伦敦铜价突破每吨12159.50美元，创历史新高。 尽管不同品类具体上涨逻辑各有差异，但有分析人士指出，本次贵金属集体且远超预期的普涨，是流动 性宽松预期、地缘风险不稳、产业供需结构性矛盾等多重 ...

格隆汇12月24日｜贵金属迎来高光时刻，集体暴走： ⭐现货黄金历史上首次突破4500美元/盎司，最高 已涨至4525美元，年内累涨超70%，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。(地缘政治以及美联储降息 预期推动) ⭐现货白银历史上首次突破70美元/盎司，最高已涨至72美元，年内累涨超150%。(白银市场 已连续五年处于供应短缺状态，而工业需求持续增长，这是支撑价格的基本面现实) ⭐现货铂金历史上 首次突破2300美元/盎司，年内累涨超150%，为1987年开始汇编相关数据以来的最大年度涨幅。(全球供 应紧张) ⭐现货钯金突破1900美元/盎司，最高至1960美元，为2022年年底以来首次。 尽管不同品类具 体上涨逻辑各有差异，但有分析人士指出，本次贵金属集体且远超预期的普涨，背后是流动性宽松预 期、地缘风险不稳、产业供需结构性矛盾，三者共振所致。需注意的是，黄金以外的贵金属，有较强工 业属性，产业供需波动会过度放大市场情绪，火箭式行情也意味着投机情绪浓厚，相关投资需额外注 意。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Influence factors: Affected by factors such as loose liquidity expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions, precious metal prices have strengthened again. Silver benefits from supply - demand imbalance and continuous inflow of ETF holdings, with funds boosting price elasticity. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain high and strong, but risks of sharp fluctuations exist due to accumulated leverage risks and potential weakening of macro - drivers. The better - than - expected Q3 GDP growth in the US weakens rate - cut expectations and may suppress prices. The short - term unilateral strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6]. - Medium - to - long - term view: In the long run, the Fed's easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased dollar credit risks will drive up the demand for precious metals. Gold prices are likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, London gold spot rose 1.4% to $4479.01 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $69.34 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 1.4% to $4511.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $69.41 per ounce. AU2602 rose 1.3% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and AG2602 rose 1.4% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price rose 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price fell 20.0%, the spread of gold TD - London rose 2.6%, and the spread of silver TD - London rose - 12.3%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.1%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.9%. The spread of AU2604 - 2602 rose 30.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 rose 50.0% [5]. 3. Position Data - As of December 22, 2025, compared with December 19, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 1.14% to 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV rose 3.32% to 16599.25081 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 2.74%, non - commercial short positions rose 1.89%, and net long positions rose 2.91%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions rose 10.71%, non - commercial short positions rose 0.92%, and net long positions rose 16.07% [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.18% to 93711 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory fell 0.20% to 899663 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.68% to 450643486 troy ounces [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell - 0.07% to 7.05. The US dollar index fell - 0.46% to 98.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell - 1.15% to 3.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.17%, the VIX fell - 5.57% to 14.08, the S&P 500 rose 0.64% to 6878.49, and NYWEX crude oil rose 2.49% to 57.95 [5]. 6. Market Review - On December 23, 2023, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.73% to 1014.24 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 4.3% to 16441 yuan per kilogram [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-24 联储降息预期回摆，⾦银新⾼后"V 型"震荡 地缘政治⻛险加剧、美元⾛软、央⾏持续购⾦及明年美国利率下调预期的 共振下，⻩⾦、⽩银价格均续创历史新⾼。⽽美国第三季度GDP数据超预 期影响下降息预期回摆，美元有所冲⾼，⾦银价格⾃新⾼回落。⻩⾦价格 下⾏空间或有限，地缘紧张局势升级、央⾏购⾦及联储降息预期的影响持 续存在。⽩银⽅⾯，近期⼀些⾼位获利可能引发短期整合，短线波动或放 ⼤，但整体趋势仍然是积极的。 重点资讯： 1） 美国10月耐用品订单月率为-2.2%，不及预期的-1.5%和前值0. 7%；其中扣除国防的耐用品订单月率为-1.5%，前值0.1%；扣除运输 的耐用品订单月率为0.2%，不及预期0.3%和前值0.7%。 2） 美国11月工业产出月率为0.2%，预期、前值均为0.1%；11月制 造业产出月率为0%，预期0.1%，前值0%。11月产能利用率为76%，预 期、前值均为75.9%。 3） 美国第三季度GDP季率、个人消费支出季率、以及GDP价格指 数初值均超出预期和前值。其中，第三季度实际GDP年化季率 ...

全球锡矿资源高度集中在少数几个主要产区，呈现寡头格局。核心制约在于，主要矿山面临资源品位自 然下滑与新增项目受限的双重压力，而关键产区的地缘政治风险与政策不确定性，进一步限制了供应的 有效释放。国内资源供应亦呈现集中化趋势，主要由少数头部企业主导，资源的天然稀缺性构成了长期 且坚实的成本支撑。 中游：成本挤压与效率变革 尽管中国在全球冶炼产能中占据主要地位，但持续的原料短缺导致开工率难以提升。冶炼环节正承受显 著压力：原料采购面临高价与紧缺，而成本向下游的传导存在时滞，利润空间受到挤压。这一压力正推 动行业向更高效率与更集约化的模式演进，通过技术升级与智能化改造来应对挑战，行业集中度预计将 进一步提高。 下游：需求引擎的结构性转换 今日长江现货市场锡价走势趋势 截至2025年12月19日锡价延续强势，据长江有色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#锡报价为336,500- 338,500元/吨，均价337,500元/吨，较前一日上涨4,000元/吨。三日累计涨幅超5.5%，沪锡主力合约最新 收报338410元/吨，涨幅达1%触及2022年6月以来新高。当前市场由"供需紧平衡、地缘风险溢价与流动 性宽松预期"三重动力 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251219 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4550.4 -0.61% | | -0.52% | 0.99% | -1.46% | 16.05% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 166 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，铂、钯表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251218 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4578.2 | 1.75% | 0.09% | 1.61% | -0.86% | 16.76% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1699. ...

Core Viewpoint - The NYMEX platinum futures prices have surged significantly, reaching a high of $1955 per ounce, marking a more than 110% increase year-to-date, driven by structural supply shortages, rising demand, and supportive macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Price Movement - Since December, NYMEX platinum futures have increased over 15%, with notable monthly gains of 30% in June and 18% in September [2][6]. - The domestic market has also seen significant price increases, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising from 405 yuan per gram to a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, a 30% increase since its listing [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where supply is constrained due to underinvestment, power shortages, and aging infrastructure [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply shortfall of about 20 tons in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of supply deficits [3]. Emerging Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is diversifying, with significant growth expected in hydrogen energy applications, where platinum is essential for fuel cells [4][7]. - China's investment demand for platinum is projected to surge by 100% by 2025, positioning it as the largest retail investment market globally [4]. Macroeconomic Influences - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and expectations of continued monetary easing have bolstered platinum prices [5][10]. - The correlation between platinum and gold prices has been highlighted, with both metals benefiting from macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the price of platinum may continue to rise, there could be periods of high volatility and potential corrections due to profit-taking [10][11]. - The future price predictions for platinum in 2026 vary widely, reflecting market uncertainties and differing views on economic conditions [10].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后，有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂、钯。 12月15日，国内期货市场铂、钯主力合约领涨。截至下午收盘，铂2606合约涨停，报涨7%；钯2606报 涨4.73%。 "今年铂金属价格呈现阶段性上涨态势，较年初已累计上涨98.67%。"卓创资讯富宝贵金属分析师黄加奇 接受证券时报记者采访时表示，年内铂金走势表现出"三波上涨"： "当前市场主要是避险买盘驱动贵金属价格上涨，例如黄金价格上涨带来的外溢效应。市场目前担忧美 国科技股泡沫破灭，且美联储货币宽松和高企的债务进一步导致美元信用走弱。"华闻期货有限公司总 经理助理程小勇在分析近期铂价大涨时也表示，除宏观因素外，当前铂的供应持续下降。 第一波发生于5月至7月，由于南非一季度生产面临极端天气、矿体老化、限电政策和政局不稳定 性干扰，南非一季度铂族金属产量同比下降13%，全球铂金矿端总供应量2025年一季度同比下滑 13%至34吨，为2020年第二季度以来最低季度产量。而库存的反馈具有一定滞后性，二季度国际 市场铂金可交割货源紧张，推升了铂金价格。 第二波上涨发生于8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].