Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 29 日，元旦假期在即，市场交投谨慎，植物油板块承压，棕榈油技术位面临 较大压力，豆油和菜籽油呈现弱势振荡。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7818 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增仓 | | | | | 3768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7716 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.31%，日增 | | | | | 仓 646 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8512 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.65%，日减 | | | | | 仓 26557 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期周一 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 26 日，植物油板块走势整体偏强，豆油空单大量离场提振 ...

油料产业周报 油料周报 2025/12/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期周五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | 力位 | 2448，支撑位 | 2274。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 套利方面：暂无 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期周四 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 12 月 24 日，植物油板块强弱再分化，菜籽油止跌回升幅度较大，豆油和棕榈油偏 | | | | | 弱。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7764 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.10%，日增仓 1562 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7700 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增 | | | | | 仓 119 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8488 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.02%，日减 | | | | | 仓 37874 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次 ...

农业专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 2025 年航运市场受三大联盟重组、关税贸易战及全球经济压力影响， 船公司定价保守，运费低于预期。西北欧和地中海航线因 MSC 和 Ocean 联盟调整运力，供给侧变量发生变化。 预计 2026 年交付的 24,000 标准箱新巴拿马型船不会显著增加西北欧 和地中海航线的运力，因其应用场景广泛，现有线路已能满足需求。航 运公司通过拉长航线、布局新兴市场和新增航线来应对苏伊士运河恢复 通航。 2025 年中国对美国出口预计负增长，美国进口下滑源于内部经济压力， 而非贸易争端。亚欧航线受益于欧洲对中国商品的需求，总体倾向卖方 市场，出口货量创新高。 预计 2026 年航线总数不会显著增加，新增运力主要集中在 Ocean 航线， 以大型船只替换小型船只。体育产业和传集运产业可能提前进入价格竞 争。 2025 年油脂市场受棕榈油增产预期、中加经贸关系及美国生物柴油题 材炒作影响，走势分化。马来西亚油棕种植业面临树林老化问题，重置 率低，预计 2026 年产量难以持续增长。 Q&A 2025 年航运市场的整体表现如何？ 2025 年航运市场经历了显著的疲软，与 2 ...

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计2026年2月前中国购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷有初步干旱迹象 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai J ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月18日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | | 期分 | Y2605 | 8096 | 8172 | -76 | -0.93% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | 364 | 338 | 26 | 7.69% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+490 | 01+490 | 0 | ւ | | | 仓单 | | 25964 | 25964 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | | 现价 期价 | 广东24度 P2605 | 8380 8398 | 8430 8 ...

成文日期: 20251212 报告周期:周度 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 豆油期货周报 本周核心观点 本周（20251208-1212）豆油期货市场呈现震荡下跌格局,价格 显著回落，主力合约持仓量大幅增加,同时现货价格保持坚挺. 期现 基差维持高位。这反映出市场多空分歧巨大:空头逻辑在于,国内豆 油商业库存持续攀升至近年高位,现货供应压力沉重,且国际棕榈油 等关联油脂市场表现疲软,共同压制期货盘面;而多头逻辑在于极高 的现货升水所蕴含的期价修复可能. 以及潜在的节前备货需求。此外, 市场对美国生物柴油政策利好兑现的预期有所降温,也削弱了重要的 上行驱动力。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当周豆油期货市场整体呈现震荡下跌走势,主力合约 y2605 收 于 7,994 元/吨,较上周下跌 88 元/吨,成交量为 1,125,831 手,持 仓量为 592,514 手，持仓量增加 74,932 手。 图 1 豆油期货主力合约日线图 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务 ...