投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-25 节后首日板块品种多上涨为主 油脂：外盘提振，油脂补涨 蛋白粕：节后首日交投清淡，盘面延续震荡 玉米：下游补库，玉米增仓上行 生猪：节后淡季，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：看涨情绪进一步放大，胶价迎来开门红 合成橡胶：市场情绪偏暖维持 棉花：宏观和供需预期利好共振，郑棉增仓上涨 白糖：印度食糖产量预期下调，节内外盘上涨，糖价中长期仍偏弱震荡 纸浆：偏暖金融市场氛围带动纸浆上涨 双胶纸：供需矛盾不突出，双胶窄幅震荡 原木：外盘提涨，内盘底部有支撑 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：看涨情绪进⼀步放⼤，㬵价迎来开⻔红 逻辑：天胶两品种昨日均大涨接近4%，除了市场氛围依旧向好，我们认为 昨日泰国公布的1月份天胶出口数据进一步放大了当前市场看涨情绪。由 于该降幅略超市场前期预期，所以该数据为盘面提供了较强的上涨推动。 不过需要看到的实际情况是，由于1月出口数据主要反映的是10-11月的产 出情况，而去年这段时间内泰国天气问题的确导致了阶段性的小幅减产， 并且由于12月存在年底集中发货的情况， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, oils, grains, and livestock. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and offers corresponding trading strategies for different futures contracts [3][4][5]. - For most products, the market is influenced by factors such as domestic and international policies, seasonal demand, and weather conditions. For example, the US biodiesel policy affects the prices of soybeans and soybean oil, and the supply of imported grains impacts the domestic grain market [3][5][7]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, but the post - holiday outlook is positive. The supply of domestic beans is sufficient. The expected good performance of US soybeans drives up the prices of domestic beans. For example, the soybean No.1 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the soybean No.2 05 contract is also expected to be volatile and bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: The US biodiesel policy is expected to be positive, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil are strong. The inventory of domestic soybean oil is low, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Dalian soybean oil. The rapeseed oil supply is gradually becoming looser, but the price still has support. The MPOB report for palm oil is bullish, but the high - frequency data in February is weak, and the supply - demand situation in the first quarter still has support. For example, the soybean oil 05 contract is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the palm oil 05 contract is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices after the holiday [11]. - **Proteins**: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the pre - holiday stocking is basically over. The expected good performance of US soybean prices may boost the prices of domestic beans. Rapeseed meal is driven by the protein sector. For example, the soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term; the rapeseed meal 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: The supply - demand mismatch during the Spring Festival still supports the prices. The corn 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the starch 03 contract follows the cost of corn and is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [11]. - **Livestock**: For pigs, the feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. For eggs, the new production is decreasing, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. For example, the pig 03 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the egg 05 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For example, in the oilseed sector, the soybeans No.1 3 - 5 and soybeans No.2 3 - 5 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see; in the oil sector, the soybean oil 5 - 9, rapeseed oil 5 - 9, and palm oil 5 - 9 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see. In the energy and by - product sector, the corn 3 - 5 arbitrage is recommended to go short at high prices [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [18][19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of pig and egg prices, as well as the weekly key data of the pig market, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, etc., and the weekly data of the egg market, including supply, demand, and profit data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [26][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and trading data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, as well as the basis and spread data [35][42][49]. - **Feed End**: It includes the price, basis, spread, inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [52][60][67][80]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes the futures spread, historical volatility, and option trading volume and open interest data of various products [92][93][94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [100][102][104][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, soybeans, live pigs, and eggs, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and price trends [3][4][5]. - For most products, it is recommended to consider the market situation before and after the Spring Festival, such as waiting for opportunities to go long after the festival for some products, and adopting a wait - and - see or short - term operation strategy before the festival [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is expected to improve after the holiday. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. | 4300 - 4310 | 4550 - 4600 | Oscillate strongly | Lightly go long | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is over. The US soybean market is expected to improve, driving up the domestic soybean market. | 3400 - 3420 | 3550 - 3580 | Oscillate strongly | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 05 | The US biodiesel policy is expected to be favorable, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil are strong. China's soybean oil inventory is low. | 7950 - 8000 | 8560 - 8600 | Stabilize and oscillate | Go long when stabilizing | | | Rapeseed oil 05 | Limited contradictions before the holiday. | 8800 - 8810 | 9390 - 9400 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | | Palm oil 05 | MPOB report is positive, but February's high - frequency data is weak. Supply - demand is supported in Q1. | 8860 - 8880 | 9370 - 9400 | Oscillate | Look for buying opportunities after the holiday | | Protein | Soybean meal 05 | Supply is sufficient, pre - holiday stocking is basically over. The US soybean price is expected to rise, which may boost domestic soybean prices. | 2650 - 2680 | 2800 - 2830 | Oscillate strongly | Lightly go long in the short - term | | | Rapeseed meal 05 | Limited fundamental drivers, driven up by the protein sector. | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Oscillate | Wait and see or operate within a range | | Energy and By - products | Corn 05 | Spring Festival supply - demand mismatch provides support. Short - term price may oscillate strongly. | 2240 - 2250 | 2350 - 2380 | Oscillate strongly | Go long on dips | | | Corn starch 03 | Follow the cost of corn and oscillate strongly. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Oscillate strongly | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Find the bottom through oscillation | Lightly go long | | | Eggs 05 | Newly - opened production decreases + consumption peak season expectation. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Find the bottom through oscillation | Wait and see | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, except for the 3 - 5 spread of corn, where it is recommended to sell short at high prices [11][12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing margin is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their operating rates [17][18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market indicators such as production costs, profits, slaughter volume, and inventory [19][20][21][23]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal) sectors to track the market fundamentals [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][57][58][59][61][63][64][65][66][68][70][72][73][75][77][79][81][83][88][91][92][93][96][97] Part IV: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts related to the options of feed, livestock, and oils, including the historical volatility of various products and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [89][92][93][94][96][97] Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts showing the warehouse receipt quantities of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig and egg indices [98][99][101][103][105][106][107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the domestic and international soybean oil market have no obvious changes. With positive expectations for the US biodiesel policy, the price of soybean oil is expected to rise easily and fall difficultly in the future. It is recommended to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes [3]. - The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to turn loose, but the decline in the futures price may have certain support. It is advisable to wait and see before the Spring Festival [3]. - The MPOB January report for palm oil is generally bullish, and there is still support for supply and demand in the first quarter. After the festival, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [3]. - The February USDA supply - demand report for soybeans is expected to be neutral. The price of domestic beans is expected to fluctuate at a low level before the festival. It is recommended to leave the short - position of soybean meal and wait and see, and temporarily leave the oil - meal ratio arbitrage before the festival [4]. - The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn loose, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [4]. - The price of corn futures is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contract on dips. For options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. - The price of soybean No.1 may run strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. - The short - term pressure on the spot price of live pigs is relatively large, and the far - month contract has a premium. Conservative investors can hold long positions in the far - month contract, while aggressive investors can wait for the spot pressure to be released and then go long on the 2607 contract at a low price [6]. - The spot price of eggs has dropped significantly, and the futures premium has declined. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 04 contract below 3000 points [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No.1 05 contract is expected to be adjusted in a shock, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; Soybean No.2 05 contract is expected to decline in a shock, and it is recommended to operate bearishly [10]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 05 contract is expected to stabilize in a shock, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization; Rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [10]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 05 contract is expected to decline in a shock, and it is recommended to go short with a light position; Rapeseed meal 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to turn to waiting and seeing [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 03 contract and corn starch 03 contract are expected to be sorted out in a shock, and it is recommended to return to waiting and seeing [10]. - **Livestock**: Live pig 03 contract is expected to find the bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; Egg 05 contract is expected to find the bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, and the corn 3 - 5 contract is recommended to go short on rallies [11][12]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, and the 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil are recommended to close positions [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, such as the arrival - at - port premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and import - arrival - at - port duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, and peanuts [17][18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival - at - port duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market data such as breeding costs, profits, and slaughter data [19][20][21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End**: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related price data such as piglets, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [25][27][28][29][30][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and trading data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, as well as the basis and spread data [34][36][38][40][44][47][48]. - **Feed End**: It includes the price, basis, inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [50][53][55][63][65][72][74][76][78][82][86]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides the option - related data such as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, historical volatility, and option trading volume and open interest of various varieties [89][90][91][92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [97][99][100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main soybean oil contract declined due to macro - and geopolitical disturbances. The domestic and international fundamental market logic of soybean oil has no obvious changes. The U.S. biodiesel policy has positive expectations, palm oil production areas are in a period of production reduction and inventory decline, and domestic oil inventories are decreasing. It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. It is advisable to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8560 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, the main rapeseed oil contract fluctuated downward, mainly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices and news of rapeseed purchases. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading has become dull. It is advisable to wait and see before the holiday. The resistance range of the 05 contract is 9390 - 9400, and the support range is 8800 - 8810 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: This week, the main palm oil contract fluctuated downward, driven by the sharp drop in crude oil and the collective weakness of the oil and fat sector, and the departure of long - position holders due to increased risk - aversion sentiment. The latest biodiesel tax credit policy (45Z) announced by the IRS has strengthened the positive expectations for U.S. biodiesel, which may have an indirect positive impact on palm oil. The supply - demand situation in the first quarter has strong support. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. The resistance range of the main contract is 9370 - 9400, and the support range is 8880 - 8900 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: This week, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 declined, mainly due to the general decline of commodities under the influence of macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances. The fundamentals are mixed. It is advisable to exit short - positions in soybean meal and wait and see. During the period of weather disturbances and the vacuum of biodiesel news, it is advisable to temporarily exit the oil - meal ratio arbitrage before the holiday [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal fluctuated downward. The supply is expected to turn loose, but the low - margin on the futures market limits the downward space of the price. The short - term driving force is limited, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider taking profit on previous short - positions [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main soybean No. 1 futures contract fluctuated at a high level. The market logic has no obvious changes. The stocking of domestic soybeans is coming to an end, market activity has decreased, and sentiment has weakened. It is advisable to exit long - positions and wait and see [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate. The U.S. corn production and ending stocks are at a historical high, which constitutes the main market pressure. However, the good export performance of U.S. corn and the optimistic expectation of fuel ethanol have offset the negative impact to some extent. It is advisable to wait and see or pay attention to the opportunity of going long on far - month contracts on dips [4]. - **Pigs**: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, consumption entered the last peak. The spot price of pigs fluctuated slightly. The slaughter volume rebounded month - on - month. The futures price of pigs hit a new annual low, and the discount of the 03 contract to the spot price widened. It is advisable for cautious investors to exit the short - near - month and long - far - month reverse arbitrage opportunely, and for aggressive investors to buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep - out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 points to reduce the cost of bottom - fishing [5]. - **Eggs**: Approaching the Spring Festival, domestic sales strengthened. The spot price of eggs rebounded slightly. After the Spring Festival, the egg price is expected to have a relatively limited seasonal decline. It is advisable for aggressive investors to buy the 2605 contract on dips, and it is necessary to be cautious about short - selling speculatively [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, market trading is light, and sentiment is cooling | 4300 - 4310 | 4500 - 4550 | Oscillatory adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | The U.S. soybean biodiesel policy has positive expectations, and South American weather disturbances are intensifying. Short - term soybean No. 2 may stop falling | 3400 - 3420 | 3550 - 3580 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, the U.S. biodiesel expectation is positive, and the positive driving force for soybean oil continues | 7850 - 7880 | 8250 - 8300 | Oscillatory and bullish | Light - position short - term long | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Supply is expected to turn loose, but the current low - margin on the futures market may provide some support after the price decline. Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and market trading is dull | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Range oscillation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Palm 05 | The supply - demand situation in the main production areas in the first quarter still has strong support | 8880 - 8900 | 9370 - 9400 | Oscillatory and bullish | Go long on dips | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 05 | South American weather disturbances are intensifying, and soybean meal may stop falling and oscillate in the short term | 2650 - 2680 | 2780 - 2800 | Firm operation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Supply is turning loose, but the margin on the futures market is falling | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Low - level oscillation | Take profit on short - positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | The structural contradiction support continues, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the range | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | | Starch 03 | The cost - end corn price fluctuates in the range, and it may follow the corn to fluctuate in the range in the short term | 2430 - 2440 | 2630 - 2650 | Range fluctuation | Temporarily wait and see | | Livestock | Pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the industry has capacity - reduction policies | 11000 - 11200 | 11800 - 12500 | Low - level oscillation | Go long on dips | | | Eggs 03 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3080 | 3150 - 3280 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Go long on dips | [9] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4160 | 4160 | - 218 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3950 | 3950 | 452 | 0 | | | Peanut | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8650 | 8650 | 408 | - 28 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 9940 | 0 | 796 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9080 | - 100 | 54 | - 84 | | Proteins | Soybean Meal | 3050 | 0 | 365 | 365 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2520 | 0 | 281 | - 1 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2310 | 0 | 63 | 203 | | | Starch | 2640 | 0 | 57 | - 11 | | Livestock | Pigs | 12.14 (yuan/kg) | 0.03 (yuan/kg) | 775 | - 390 | | | Eggs | 2.82 (yuan/jin) | - 0.29 (yuan/jin) | 746 (yuan/500kg) | - 113.00 (yuan/500kg) | [10][11] 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil at different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [11][12]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operation rate of various oilseeds and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operation rates of soybean oil mills, rapeseed oil mills, and peanut oil mills [13]. 3.2.2 Feed The report presents the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [13]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pigs**: The data includes the weekly average prices of binary sows, 7KG external - ternary piglets, external - ternary pigs, and pig feed, as well as the breeding cost, profit, pig - grain ratio, slaughter weight, slaughter data, and frozen - product inventory rate [14]. - **Eggs**: The data covers the laying rate, the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the age and quantity of culled chickens, the sales volume, inventory, profit, and related spot prices [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts 3.3.1 Livestock (Pigs and Eggs) The report provides the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, white - striped pigs, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [16][18][19][21]. 3.3.2 Oilseeds and Oils - **Palm Oil**: It includes the monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import margin, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of Malaysian palm oil [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operation rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: It presents the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit, the weekly raw - material procurement volume of some oil mills, the weekly operation rate, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills, the monthly import volume, price spreads, and basis [38][40][42]. 3.3.3 Feed - **Corn**: It includes the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, processing profit, and price difference with wheat of corn [44][47][49]. - **Corn Starch**: It shows the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operation rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [52][53][54]. - **Rapeseed**: It presents the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, crushing volume, and profit of rapeseed [56][60][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in ports and soybean meal in domestic oil mills [65][67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][74][75]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [80][85][87].

棕榈油月报 关注马棕油去库节奏 棕榈油仍有支撑 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国和伊朗地缘局势不确定较大，油价止跌上涨，对油 脂板块形成支撑。生柴政策方面。生柴政策方面，前期 预期2026年下半年开始实施B50政策，由于资金和技术等 因素的限制，印尼政府计划取消在2026年实施B50政策， 但相关研究工作仍在进行；印尼政府启动全国性专项整 治行动，旨在全面收回被非法采矿和油棕种植侵占的国 有林区，也影响棕榈油的生产。美国特朗普政府预计将 在3月初敲定2026年生物柴油政策，预计将把生物燃料掺 混义务量维持在52-56亿加仑，将放弃惩罚可再生燃料及 其原料进口的计划；美国发布的45Z拟议规则，维持税收 抵免范围在北美原料。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 各机构高频数据显示，1月马棕油产量环比减少，出口需 求持续改善，主要是印度1月棕榈油进口量大幅增加，外 媒报道印度1月进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to South American bumper harvest, there is no basis for a bull market; however, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. Overall, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans increased significantly. The settlement price of the continuous US soybean contract was 1115.25 cents per bushel, up 51 cents per bushel. The price was supported by China's additional purchase of 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year and the unresolved threat to crops in the Argentine production area [7] - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.6 per short ton, up $10 per short ton. The strength of US soybean meal was mainly supported by China's additional purchase of US soybeans and Trump's expected visit to China in April [11] - This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, at 55.33 cents per pound, up 1.82 cents per pound. The rise was driven by the strength of US soybeans, the increase in crude oil prices, and the re - stabilization of the commodity index [15] - As of January 30, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.82 per bushel, up $0.13 [18] - As of January 30, the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.943 per bushel, basically unchanged [20] - On February 6, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose by 0.96 to 100.59 reais per bag [22] - As of February 5, the spot price of soybeans at Brazilian ports rose by 0.7 to 125.61 reais per bag [24] 3.2 Supply Factors - In Brazil, the western region will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The overall precipitation in the main production areas in the next two weeks will be normal to above - normal [27][31] - In Argentina, the main production areas will be dry in the next week, and precipitation will gradually recover in the second phase. The southern production areas will have less precipitation, while the northern production areas will improve [42][44] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of January 30, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.61 per bushel, compared with $2.4 last week [49] - In the week of January 30, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.3876 million tons, compared with 1.2695 million tons last week [51] - In the week of January 30, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3105 million tons, compared with 1.3244 million tons last week [53] - In the week of January 30, the net sales of the current crop year were 436,900 tons, compared with 818,900 tons last week [56] - The sales of US soybeans for the next crop year were 9,000 tons, compared with 400 tons last week [58] - In the week of January 30, the quantity shipped to China was 740,000 tons, compared with 897,400 tons last week [60] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.85, and La Nina is weakening [63] - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the planting costs of soybeans in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly [65][67] - As of February 3, the net long position of soybeans was 61,600 lots, compared with 54,300 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 9,950 lots, compared with a net short position of 18,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 21,700 lots, compared with a net short position of 31,700 lots last week [71][73][75]

| | | | V V > | | 2026年02月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。CBOT大豆表现强势,因对美豆出口预期转好。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积 方面出台保障政策,种植利润多项措施保护。本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强, 成交均价4298元/吨、溢价210- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-6 合成橡胶盘面弹性较大，关注低位支撑 油脂：供应预期承压，油脂弱势回调 蛋⽩粕：现货涨跌互现，双粕盘⾯震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现震荡运⾏ ⽣猪：购销顺畅，猪价弱势 天然橡㬵：短期⽀撑仍有效 合成橡㬵：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 棉花：震荡调整，节前缺乏单边趋势 ⽩糖：巴西⻝糖出⼝仍存潜⼒，中⻓期震荡偏弱预期不改 纸浆：针叶美⾦盘报平，基本⾯弱势更为明显 双㬵纸：商品转弱，双㬵回调 原⽊：冲⾼回落，原⽊区间运⾏ ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 【异动品种】 合成橡㬵观点：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 逻辑：昨日BR盘面夜盘突然大幅下挫，而后日盘商品在贵金属继续大幅回 调的带动下走低，BR维持偏弱，但触及12500元/吨关口后获得支撑并小幅 反弹。从基本面来看并未出现明显变化，丁二烯成交也并不差，所以我们 认为盘面更多仅是调整需求。目前来说，中期核心逻辑暂时未变，即对于 丁二烯在2026上半年供应偏紧预期的交易。目前来说，在原料偏紧格局 下,商品情绪即使整体影响依旧较大，并造成盘面偶尔出 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-05 待美生柴政策指引，盘面震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9138.00元/吨，环比变化+44元，幅度+0.48%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8140.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.67%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9243.00元/吨，环比变化+28.00元，幅度+0.30%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9070.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.44%，现货基差P05-68.00，环比变化 -4.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+280.00， 环比变化-14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9990.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.20%，现货基差 OI05+747.00，环比变化-8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：政策周期与听证安排：美国国税局发布45Z生物税收抵免拟议规则，将进行为期60天的公众评 议，并定于2026年5月28日举行听证会。该政策适用期限至2029年12月31日截止。SAF生产限制：禁止使用棕榈脂 ...