Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Different sectors in the market show diverse trends. Some sectors like precious metals and certain agricultural products have medium - term positive outlooks but face short - term adjustments, while others such as crude oil and some industrial metals have bearish or uncertain trends in the short to medium term [1][2] - The overall market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent futures declined 0.33%. After the peak consumption season, there is a growing supply - demand surplus. The mid - term trend is bearish. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations, and a strategy of combining short positions and call options is recommended [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weakening, and supply is abundant, but Russian attacks support its valuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply - demand drivers [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand increased marginally. The price is supported, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [23] - **Urea**: Domestic supply is abundant, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the progress of rigid demand [24] - **Methanol**: Short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. High - inventory pressure exists, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. The mid - term trend is positive, but short - term adjustments are possible [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by domestic spot supply - demand, but consumption indicators are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate between 79,000 - 80,500 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream开工率 is rising seasonally, but inventory has not turned around. The resistance level is at the March high [4] - **Zinc**: The export window is approaching, and domestic inventory is under pressure. The short - term trend is bearish [7] - **Lead**: The fundamentals are improving, and there is room for upward movement in the short term [8] - **Nickel**: Affected by the earthquake in Indonesia, the short - term trend is weak [9] - **Tin**: After price adjustments, inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see or use a "buy low, sell high" strategy [10] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: Both are in a strong - oscillation trend, and prices are likely to rise due to the "anti - involution" background [18][19] - **Ferro - alloys**: - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both have a high probability of strong - oscillation due to sufficient carbon supply, high iron - water production, and pre - holiday restocking [16][17] - **Non - Ferrous Metals Related**: - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is supported at around 2,830 yuan [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the decline of Shanghai aluminum but may show stronger resilience [5] Building Materials - **Steel**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a strong - oscillation. Demand for rebar is improving, while that for hot - rolled coil is falling. Attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term trend is high - level oscillation. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by high iron - water production [15] - **Glass**: It has a high - supply and low - demand pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment [33] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, and the short - term price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. The long - term trend is bearish due to over - supply [35] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is increasing, but demand is improving, and the market is slowly recovering [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may decline. Caustic soda shows regional differences and is in an oscillation pattern [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term market is weak, but there is a possibility of downstream restocking after PX's negative factors are released [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is at the bottom of the range. Supply pressure is expected but currently low [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing - margin recovery [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. Long - term, soybean meal can be cautiously bullish [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Short - term, pay attention to trade - relation expectations. Long - term, they can be bought at low prices [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic supply bottleneck supports prices. Attention should be paid to the opening rate and trade - relation expectations [38] - **Corn**: After the new grain is on the market, the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the futures are bearish [41] - **Eggs**: The seasonal peak is ending. Consider long - positions in the far - month contract [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is bearish. Wait and see after the price break - down [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic market is in an oscillation [44] - **Apples**: The short - term price may decline due to lack of supply - side drivers [45] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [46] Others - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see or use an oscillation strategy [47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillatory one. Allocate more to technology - growth sectors and consider cyclical and consumer sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures prices are falling, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48] - **Shipping**: The freight index is under pressure in the short term. The impact of the Poland - Belarus border closure on shipping demand needs to be monitored [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central price of palm oil is supported by a balanced supply - demand situation in the near term and a tight supply expectation in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil fluctuates following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil shows relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - In the international market, the USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak this week, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major vegetable oils mainly fluctuated, and the net long positions of foreign capital seats also fluctuated. Palm oil showed mediocre performance due to weak export data from Malaysia, with a decline in high - frequency production in September in Malaysia and still no significant increase in exports. Soybean oil fluctuated following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - **International Vegetable Oils**: The USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Vegetable Oils**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, the absolute valuation is high, the export of Malaysian palm oil is average with high production, indicating average demand in sales areas or high production in Indonesia, and there is a tight supply expectation in the medium term. Global rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase by 5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. India and China currently make purchases based on rigid demand, and the relatively low inventory in India may attract palm oil buyers at low prices [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to be bullish. The core driving logic is the factors mentioned above that support the central price of vegetable oils. Currently, the valuation is high, and it is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the basis of palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3.3 Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, which helps to understand the supply situation of palm oil [27][28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: It presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil through charts, reflecting the supply situation of soybean and rapeseed [29][30] - **Palm Oil Production Area Weather**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices and phenomena through charts, which may affect palm oil production [32][33] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Vegetable Oils**: The report shows the total inventory of domestic three major vegetable oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts, reflecting the overall inventory situation [39] - **Profit and Inventory of Different Vegetable Oils**: It presents the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, as well as the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the inventory of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different vegetable oils [42][44][45][47] 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts, reflecting the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Cost**: It presents the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts, reflecting the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Vegetable Oil Trading Volume**: The report shows the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts, reflecting the trading demand for vegetable oils [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts, which helps to understand the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on vegetable oil demand [58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Corn, Eggs [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. In the long - term, some products like soybean meal and bean - palm oil have potential upward trends, while others like Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean decline slows down with price hovering at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual acquisition performance in the Northeast after late September and the verification of the expected improvement in trade relations for imported soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal 2601 decreased positions by over 50,000 lots and rose 0.43%. Supply is sufficient in Q4, and there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The decline of soybean oil and palm oil slows down with a small rebound. Overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September shows differences. In the long - term, they can be considered for buying at low prices under the support of overseas biodiesel policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed prices rise with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Canadian rapeseed continues to decline. The support of domestic supply bottlenecks for rapeseed prices remains, and attention should be paid to the expected trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low. Spot prices vary in different regions. After the enthusiasm for new grain acquisition fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - Both spot and futures prices of live hogs continue to decline, hitting new lows this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish sentiment persists after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [8] Eggs - Egg futures continue to reduce positions with a weak near - term and strong far - term pattern. The spot price has回调 for two consecutive days. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [9]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Special Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9258 | 9198 | 9212 | 9090 | 9108 | -150 | -1.62% | 44838 | 89682 | 3604 | | P2601 | 9494 | 9408 | 9428 | 9280 | 9304 | -190 | -2.00% | 627749 | 423179 | -12824 | | Y2605 | 8132 | 8090 | 8114 | 8000 | 8022 | -110 | -1.35% | 48401 | 223676 | -982 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8352 | 8366 | 8262 | 8284 | -138 | -1.64% | -348953 | 574844 | -13601 | | OI2605 | 9572 | 9533 | 9541 | 9462 | - | -0.80% | 14529 | 47029 | 806 | | OI2601 | 10055 | 9991 | 10010 | 9926 | 9984 | - | -0.71% | 266924 | 326231 | -10512 | [7] Basis Price Information - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230 - East China Grade 1 rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330 - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200 - East China 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quote basis: September: P2601 - 50; October: P2601 + 0; October - November: P2601 + 50 [7] Core View - Bullish funds left the market, and the oil and fat market continued to decline. The negative factors mainly came from the external market. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries, but it was not finalized, disappointing the market. Also, the harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed was approaching, and the harvest pressure and uncertain demand prospects under the trade - war background weighed on the market. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly tried to sell at higher prices, leading to a continuous increase in the basis price. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade situation and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. Recently, the oil and fat market faced pressure on the upside but also had support on the downside. Wait for the technical correction to end. In the long - and medium - term, the oil and fat market is bullish due to the favorable biodiesel policy [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the data released by shipping surveyor ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to 724,191 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase from 8,800 tons in the previous month. - According to the data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.21% month - on - month. - According to the data released by shipping surveyor SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to 537,183 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 34,000 tons, higher than 14,000 tons in the previous month. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term market is affected by factors such as trade relationship expectations, policy guidance, and supply - demand changes, and presents a volatile trend. Long - term trends are influenced by factors like overseas bio - diesel policies and production capacity changes. For some products, long - term bullish or bearish trends are expected, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Soybean - The decline of domestic soybeans has eased and rebounded. The expected opening price of new soybeans is around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan/jin. The market has high expectations for Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian soybean premiums have fallen. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations, policy guidance, and the performance of new soybeans on the market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and may cut rates twice more this year. Affected by the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, Dalian futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism about Dalian soybean meal is maintained [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil are in a downward trend. The price of US soybean oil has weakened, and the soybean - oil ratio has adjusted after reaching a new high. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations. In the long - term, considering the support of overseas bio - diesel policies, it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil followed the decline of the vegetable oil sector, but the decline was the smallest due to the uniqueness of its supply. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025/26 has been slightly increased, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.65% today. Spot prices in different regions are differentiated. There is a certain sentiment of hoarding among farmers. Short - term attention should be paid to policy guidance, and after the enthusiasm for new grain purchases fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall to a new low this year. The main November contract opened lower and continued to decline, breaking through the key resistance level. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and a bearish view is maintained [8] Eggs - Egg futures significantly reduced their positions by 60,000 lots, with the near - term weaker than the far - term. The spot price started to correct today. The industry still has a high inventory problem, and the pressure of new production is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is advisable to consider deploying long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.22% to 9484.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Inventory and Trade Data - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions reached 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 3.58%. Year-on-year, this is an increase of 128,000 tons from 513,500 tons, marking a 24.92% rise [2] - On September 15, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports was 200 tons, a decrease of 85.71% compared to the previous trading day [2] - According to shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 to 15 was 742,648 tons, an increase of 2.6% compared to 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, suggesting a buy-on-dips strategy [3] - Jinxin Futures noted that the recent cumulative increase in the oilseed market has been significant, and with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's momentum for further gains is diminishing, leading to increased profit-taking pressure. A bearish outlook is suggested [3]

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **East China Third - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: From September to October, the price is OI2601 + 220; from November to December, it is OI2601 + 230. - **East China First - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: In September, the price is OI2601 + 300; in October, it is OI2601 + 320. - **East China First - Grade Soybean Oil**: The spot price is Y2601 + 150, in October it is Y2601 + 160, from October to January it is Y2601 + 190, from February to May it is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July it is Y2605 + 200. - **East China 24 - Degree Palm Oil**: In September, the basis is P2601 - 50, in October it is P2601 + 0, and from October to November it is P2601 + 50. [7] Oil and Fat Comments - The market is dominated by news such as China - Canada and China - US negotiations, showing a high - level volatile trend. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term inventory is at a high level with sufficient supply, but there are concerns about long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provides strong support, so there is limited room for price decline. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly. The supply is sufficient before the end of the year based on current inventory and ship purchases, and the long - term situation depends on policies. The market trend is tangled with insufficient driving force. - **Palm Oil**: The production in the palm oil - producing areas may still increase in the third quarter, peaking in September - October and then declining. The high - frequency export data in early September is poor, and the price lacks short - term upward momentum. - **Industry Policy**: Indonesia may first increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50. - **Operation Suggestion**: For the three major oils, the strategy is mainly to buy low and go long on a single - side basis. [8] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From September 1 - 10, the production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.7% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.09% [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (ITS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 million tons, higher than 0.1 million tons in the same period last month [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (SGS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.83 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous week [9][10]. - **Policy News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14 - 17, discussing issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Indonesia may first implement a B45 transition plan before the B50 biodiesel policy, reflecting the government's caution and flexibility in promoting renewable energy use and expanding domestic palm oil demand [15]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [13][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★) [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market trends of various agricultural products are mainly volatile, and different products have different driving factors. Market participants need to pay attention to policy, weather, trade results, and other information. For some products, a low - buying strategy can be considered, while for others, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main domestic soybean futures contract rebounded from a low, basically recovering the decline in the first half of the week. The domestic soybean auction on Friday had poor results, with all 36,112 tons up for sale at a base price of 4,100/4,150 yuan/ton failing to sell. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the market is concerned about future supply pressure due to the expected good harvest this year. Policy and new - crop yield performance should be continuously monitored [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 4, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, down from 818,000 tons the previous week. As of September 9, about 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The USDA will release a September supply - demand report on the early morning of September 13. The market expects a reduction in soybean yield, which is bullish for US soybeans. The short - term market may continue to be volatile and bullish, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the market expects a decline in US soybean yield, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices are volatile. In the medium term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees may have a bottom - supporting effect on soybean and palm oils. A low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products declined slightly. The market is waiting for the US agricultural supply - demand report. Canadian rapeseed harvesting is underway, and there is no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. Ukraine's tariff on oilseed exports may affect its exports to the EU. Canadian and Australian rapeseed may expand into the EU market, potentially stabilizing global rapeseed prices. Domestic rapeseed product demand is suppressed, and inventory reduction is slow. The price center of rapeseed futures may move slightly upward [6] Corn - Corn futures were volatile and bearish today. CGC imported about 190,000 tons of corn for auction, with a 34% transaction rate. Shandong's spot supply remains loose, while the spot price at Northeast ports is strong. New - crop corn may be delayed due to heavy rainfall in the Northeast. Corn prices may be volatile and bullish before the new - crop harvest, and Dalian corn futures may be bearish at the bottom after the harvest enthusiasm fades [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were volatile and adjusted, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were stable and slightly bullish. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is high due to the continuous realization of previous production capacity. The market is waiting for the results of the live pig production capacity regulation symposium on September 17. The current main - contract futures price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8] Egg - Egg spot prices continued to rise, while distant - month futures contracts declined significantly, and near - month contracts were supported by the rising spot price. The market is in a seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high inventory problem, and capacity reduction is still needed. The pressure of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of this round of production capacity is expected to be reached in the fourth quarter. A long - position strategy can be considered for distant - month contracts next year, and attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds from near - month contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The soybean oil futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract showing a notable drop and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a growing sentiment of capital leaving the market. The sudden negative news regarding the US biodiesel policy and the high inventory levels at domestic ports jointly pressured the market. Despite the support from the high premium of the spot market, the fundamental bearish situation remains difficult to change. In the short term, the market lacks effective positive drivers, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the MPOB and USDA reports and the actual performance of pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, down 162 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.92%. The trading volume was 448,885 lots, and the open interest was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 512,750 lots, and the total open interest was 858,927 lots, a decrease of 21,352 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 34,460 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 87,808 lots, an increase of 2,445 lots, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,510 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2601 was 8,322 yuan/ton, and the basis was 188 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors On September 9, commodity funds net - sold 1,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 3,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - bought 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - sold 5,500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].