Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil is experiencing a weakening of high - yield marginal trading and a technical rebound [1]. - Soybean oil lacks a strong driving force from US soybeans and is mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil: The day - session closing price was 8,626 yuan/ton with a 1.15% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume was 410,968 lots with an increase of 27,550 lots, and the open interest was 331,361 lots with a decrease of 33,791 lots [1]. - Soybean oil: The day - session closing price was 8,244 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase. Trading volume was 172,181 lots with a decrease of 53,408 lots, and the open interest was 347,390 lots with a decrease of 10,124 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The day - session closing price was 9,757 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and the night - session closing price was 9,785 yuan/ton with a 0.29% increase. Trading volume was 235,179 lots with a decrease of 5,362 lots, and the open interest was 175,955 lots with a decrease of 5,986 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil (Malaysian ringgit/ton): The closing price was 4,114 with a 0.59% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil (US cents/pound): The closing price was 52.08 with a 2.06% increase [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 180 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,280 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): The price was 1,030 US dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 56 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 326 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 523 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,131 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 1,244 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 382 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 304 yuan/ton) [1]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: - 52 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: - 62 yuan/ton) [1]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 204 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 222 yuan/ton) [1]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 256 yuan/ton (previous two - day value: 233 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil News**: - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were expected to be 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease [2]. - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in December at 926.14 US dollars/ton, lower than 963.75 US dollars/ton in November. The export tariff will drop to 74 US dollars/ton from 124 US dollars/ton in the previous month, and there is an additional 10% export special tax [2][3]. - Indonesian suppliers are expected to postpone the shipment of 310,000 tons of palm oil from November to December due to an expected export tax reduction of over 50 US dollars/ton in December [3]. - **Soybean News**: - A private US exporter reported the sale of 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery [4]. - In September, the US used 1.053 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the overall growth of Brazil's soybean crops indicates that the yield potential in most areas will be lower than in the 2024/2025 season. The sowing progress is 86.97%, compared with 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [4]. - Agroconsult expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach a record 178.1 million tons [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, the soybean planting in South Mato Grosso, Brazil, is nearing completion. As of November 21, 95.6% of the expected area (4.583 million hectares) has been sown, with 93.7% of the crops in good condition. The estimated average yield is 52.8 bags per hectare, and the expected total output is 15.1 million tons [5]. - In South Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the soybean sowing area has reached 60% of the expected area, and the crops are in the germination and vegetative development stages with good emergence [5]. - As of November 27, Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 39% (last week: 25%, last year: 47%) [5]. - As of November 26, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, last year: 45%). The proportion of crops in good condition was 62% (last week: 70%, last year: 21%), and 38% were in normal condition (last week: 30%, last year: 79%) [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's soybean production in the 2026/2027 season will be 3.2 million tons, up from 3 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Due to a significant increase in the planting area, Expana expects the EU's rapeseed production in the 2026/2027 season to be 20.8 million tons, a 1.5% increase from 20.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. - Expana estimates that the EU's sunflower seed production in the 2026/2027 season will be 9.8 million tons, compared with 8.4 million tons in the 2025/2026 season [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil industries, including export sales, planting progress, and price - setting data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.108 million tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 1.7301 million tons, up 150% from the previous week and 173% from the four - week average [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 543,100 tons, up 52% from the previous week and 288% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 380,400 tons, up 86% from the previous week and 46% from the four - week average [1]. - Patria Agronegocios reported that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86.97%, lower than 89.54% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 85.13%, and most areas may have lower yields than the 2024/25 season [1]. - The EIA reported that US soybean oil used for biofuel production in September rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14 per ton, lower than $963.75 in November, and the export tariff will drop to $74 from $124 in the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 24 to November 28, 2025 are presented [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 01 contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the export of Canadian canola has declined significantly this year, the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan, which designates canola oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote canola exports to Pakistan provide support. Domestically, the supply of imported canola is structurally tight, and canola oil will continue to be destocked, supporting its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for canola oil. The canola oil futures price has been fluctuating narrowly and slightly lower recently, but it may be stronger than other oils due to tight supply. Short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed higher. The 01 contract closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean is in the export season with abundant supply, but it faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The good domestic crushing consumption in the US and China's purchase of nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30 support the US soybean price. Domestically, the import of Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and the supply is tight. However, the demand for canola meal in aquaculture has weakened due to the temperature drop, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand for canola meal. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The canola meal has been generally fluctuating recently, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 01 contract of canola oil futures closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The export decline of Canadian canola exerts pressure, but policies and new export agreements provide support. Domestically, the supply is tight, and the price is supported, but the demand is limited by soybean oil. The price may be stronger than other oils, and short - term participation is recommended [8]. - **Canola Meal**: The 01 contract of canola meal futures closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean market has both supply and demand factors. Domestically, the supply is tight, but the demand is weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 175,955 lots, a decrease of 67,869 lots from last week. Canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed up, with a total position of 319,701 lots, a decrease of 36,483 lots from last week [14]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were +2,658 this week, compared with +4,542 last week, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 11,641 this week, compared with - 10,587 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [19]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 3,965 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [24][25]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,700 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was +313 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was - 32 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of canola oil was +256 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of canola meal was +37 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of canola oil and canola meal was 3.979, and the ratio of the average spot price was 3.97 [52]. - **Price Spread between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and soybean oil was 1,513 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and palm oil was 1,131 yuan/ton. Both spreads fluctuated narrowly and contracted this week [61]. - **Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The spread between the 01 contract of soybean meal and canola meal was 592 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 560 yuan/ton as of Thursday [67]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Canola**: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of canola in oil mills was 0.1 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of canola in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 million tons respectively. The spot crushing profit of imported canola was +1,190 yuan/ton as of November 27. The crushing volume of canola in coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons in the 47th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0%. The import volume of canola in October 2025 was 0 million tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Canola Oil**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola oil was 43.9 million tons, a decrease of 4.4 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.98%. The import volume of canola oil in October 2025 was 14.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. The contract volume of imported and crushed canola oil was 3.8 million tons as of the end of the 47th week of 2025, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.91% [89][93][97]. - **Canola Meal**: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola meal was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The import volume of canola meal in October 2025 was 22.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.99% and a month - on - month increase of 6.30 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 28, the implied volatility of canola meal options was 17.7%, a decrease of 3.03% from the previous week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards traditional oil and gas sectors, with investors showing increased acceptance of major European oil companies' stocks [27] Core Insights - The demand for energy driven by artificial intelligence and data centers is significantly increasing, posing challenges to existing power infrastructure and necessitating new energy supplies to support digital transformation [1][3] - Natural gas has re-emerged as a key transitional fuel, while oil demand is expected to continue growing until 2040, despite strong renewable energy development [5][12] - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act positively impacts clean technology development, with Texas emerging as a clean technology hub [6] - European electricity demand, which stagnated for 15 years, has recently begun to grow at an annual rate of 2-3%, driven by electrification, declining electric vehicle costs, and the rise of data centers [9][10] Summary by Sections Energy Demand and Supply - Artificial intelligence and data centers are projected to significantly increase future energy demand, necessitating substantial investments in energy infrastructure [3][4] - Global oil supply is under pressure due to a lack of major discoveries over the past decade, while U.S. shale oil growth is slowing [12] - Renewable energy is expected to meet base load consumption growth over the next decade, but its intermittent nature will increase the demand for battery storage [13] Regulatory Impact - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Emissions Trading System (EUETS) are crucial in shaping the development of clean technologies [6][21] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory changes in fostering clean technology advancements and the potential impacts of border adjustment mechanisms [6] Market Trends - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment towards utility stocks and data center themes, with significant buying activity observed [28] - The renewable energy market is experiencing a new cycle of returns, with internal rates of return reaching 78% [20] Infrastructure Challenges - Aging electricity grids in Europe and the U.S. require modernization to meet future demands, with significant capital investments anticipated [18] - The expansion of data centers is expected to lead to a substantial increase in electricity consumption in Europe, with projections of a 10-15% rise in demand from 2029 to 2035 [22] Future Energy Landscape - Nuclear energy is positioned to play a critical role in the future energy structure, although large-scale applications will take time due to long construction cycles [29][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing importance of fossil fuels in certain regions, particularly in the context of energy security and supply challenges [5][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed lower. The 01 - contract closed at 9,816 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the significant decline in Canadian rapeseed exports exerts pressure, the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan, with rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote rapeseed exports are positive factors. However, the possible delay of the US bio - fuel import incentive cut plan and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil drag down the international oil market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs. The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near term, and oil mills are mostly shut down, so rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting its price. But the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit rapeseed oil demand to mostly rigid demand. The short - term price fluctuation has increased, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal futures continued to decline. The 01 - contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The unexpected downward adjustment of US soybean exports by USDA triggered selling, but good domestic consumption and Chinese purchases of US soybeans support the US soybean market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term. With oil mills mostly shut down, the supply pressure is small. However, due to the decline in water temperature, the demand for aquaculture has weakened, and the rigid demand for rapeseed meal has decreased. Also, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal have weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The market has declined recently with increased volatility, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - Canadian trade policy can make a breakthrough [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 107 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is affected by both international and domestic factors, with short - term price fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 59 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly at the low level this week, with a total position of 243,824 lots, a decrease of 4,656 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total position of 356,184 lots, a decrease of 116,496 lots from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +4,542, a slight decrease from +5,946 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from a net long position of +27,455 last week to a net short position of - 10,587 this week [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 4,033 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +344 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 11 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +391 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +64 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 01 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 4.038, and the average spot price ratio was 4.06 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 01 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,626 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,266 yuan/ton, both with narrow fluctuations this week. The 01 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 581 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 600 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed - Supply**: As of November 14, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.25 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,177 yuan/ton as of November 20. The crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons in the 46th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0%. The total import volume of rapeseed in September 2025 was 11.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.14 tons [71][75][79][83]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 48.3 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.40%. The total import volume of rapeseed oil in September 2025 was 15.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 1.90 tons [87]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 495 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of catering were 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 9.28% [91][95]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 60.0%. The total import volume of rapeseed meal in September 2025 was 15.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.57 tons [99][103]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3128.7 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20.67%, a 0.02% increase from last week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

Market Overview - Technology stocks strengthened ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, leading the Nasdaq to outperform U.S. stock indices, while the S&P 500 ended a four-day decline [2] - Nvidia reported a 62% year-over-year revenue growth for the last quarter, with guidance exceeding expectations, and its stock rose 6% in after-hours trading [4][15] - The U.S. dollar and bond yields increased, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 2.5 basis points [2][10] Nvidia Insights - Nvidia's revenue accelerated by 62% year-over-year, with data center revenue growing by 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter [15] - The company is facing supply constraints and has shifted to using mobile-style memory for its chips, which may lead to a doubling of server memory prices next year [15] - Nvidia's new Blackwell chips are expected to generate $500 billion in revenue over the next few quarters, indicating strong demand for AI computing [15] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among members regarding a potential rate cut in December, with many expressing concerns about market stability [16][22] - The delay in the release of the October non-farm payroll report has led to reduced expectations for a rate cut this year [17] Saudi-U.S. AI Partnership - Saudi Arabia and the U.S. signed a strategic partnership in artificial intelligence, with plans for advanced chip sales to Saudi AI companies [18][23] - Nvidia and AMD are expected to benefit from this partnership, with significant projects planned in the region [23] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, with the largest spot Bitcoin ETF seeing record redemptions, totaling nearly $2 billion in November [19] Asian Market Developments - A-shares saw fluctuations but ultimately closed higher, with lithium mining stocks surging as lithium carbonate futures surpassed 100,000 [3] Company Movements - Segment leader Duan Yongping significantly increased his holdings in Berkshire Hathaway while reducing his positions in Nvidia and other tech stocks [5] - Kuaishou reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase and a 37% rise in net profit, with AI revenue exceeding 300 million [7] M&A Activity - China International Capital Corporation plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, indicating a trend of consolidation in the brokerage sector [6][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2) Report Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, rapeseed meal prices have dropped significantly with increased market volatility, so short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, due to the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage, rapeseed oil demand is mainly for rigid needs [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9813 yuan/ton (down 61 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2419 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 655.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 0.3 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed was 5551 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 363 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan), rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 32 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 243297 lots (down 7957 lots), rapeseed meal was 387336 lots (down 23838 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 745 lots (down 1497 lots), rapeseed meal was - 16912 lots (down 12632 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 4161 sheets (down 1092 sheets), rapeseed meal was 2000 sheets (down 745 sheets) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2400 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 10363.75 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), import cost of rapeseed was 8075.71 yuan/ton (up 53.24 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 396 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 19 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1660 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed - palm oil was 1650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 11.53 tons (down 13.13 tons), import rapeseed crushing profit was 686 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan) [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.25 tons (down 0.25 tons), weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 0% (unchanged) [2] - Import quantity: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 tons (up 2 tons), rapeseed meal was 15.77 tons (down 5.57 tons) [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 2.08 tons (down 0.52 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.2 tons (down 0.3 tons) [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 40.05 tons (down 2.37 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.96 tons (down 2.49 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 1.48 tons (down 0.32 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.3 tons (up 1.5 tons) [2] - Weekly pick - up volume: Rapeseed oil was 1.01 tons (down 0.3 tons), rapeseed meal was 0.3 tons (up 0.1 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3128.7 tons (up 201.5 tons), catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 5199 billion yuan (up 690.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 495 tons (up 44.4 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 20.73% (down 0.83%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 20.72% (down 0.84%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal (20 - day) was 22.01% (down 0.36%), rapeseed meal (60 - day) was 21.45% (down 0.28%); rapeseed oil (20 - day) was 14.91% (down 0.13%), rapeseed oil (60 - day) was 13.7% (down 0.07%) [2] Industry News - On November 18 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, following the uptrend of vegetable oils. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 1.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 656.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - USDA unexpectedly lowered US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season. After the report was released, there was a sell - off. However, Chinese buyers started purchasing US soybeans this week, supporting the US soybean market [2] Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production and weak export data, while the Dalian palm oil futures are expected to try to break through 8900. - Soybean oil: The global crude oil supply - demand forecast in 2026 by OPEC has affected the soybean oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the spot basis is likely to remain stable [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak, but there is an expectation of strengthening in the market tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA monthly report is expected to show little change in the ending stocks. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [7]. 2.4 Corn Industry - Corn prices in the Northeast are rising locally, and those in the North China are stable with a slight upward trend. The price increase and decrease are limited due to supply pressures and cost and policy support. The short - term corn price may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is restricted [8]. 2.5 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are falling, and the domestic cotton price is likely to be in a range - bound pattern due to hedging pressure and cost support, with weak downstream demand but rigid raw - material demand from textile enterprises [11]. 2.6 Sugar Industry - Brazilian rainfall may affect sugarcane crushing, and India's sugar export has uncertainties. The domestic sugar market is expected to be in a price - oscillation state, with the new - season sugarcane crushing in Guangxi likely to be postponed [13][14]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs remains under pressure as the laying - hen inventory is high in November. The consumption is weak, but the egg price is at a bottom - range, and 2512 short positions can be gradually closed at a low price below 3000 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8560, the futures price of Y2601 rose 0.34% to 8316, and the basis decreased 10.29% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong dropped 0.58% to 8570, the futures price of P2601 rose 0.09% to 8752, and the basis decreased 46.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu rose 1.48% to 10260, the futures price of OI601 rose 1.37% to 9975, and the basis rose 5.56% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased 0.89%, that of palm oil decreased 13.33%, and that of rapeseed oil increased 9.11% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of pig 2605 rose 0.82% to 12235, and that of pig 2601 rose 0.55% to 11860. - Spot: The spot prices in most regions decreased, such as in Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - The sample - point slaughter volume decreased 0.74%, the white - strip price decreased 0.53%, and the piglet price decreased 15% [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3050, the futures price of M2601 rose 0.39% to 3071, and the basis decreased 133.33% [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 decreased 0.08% to 2492, and the basis increased 33.33% [7]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.78%, and that of rapeseed meal increased 1.61% [7]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Corn: The futures price of corn 2601 rose 0.41% to 2186, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price rose 0.46% to 2200, and the basis rose 7.69% [8]. - Corn starch: The futures price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.68% to 2507, and the basis decreased 85% [8]. 3.4.2 Industry Indicators - The import profit of corn increased 4.66%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased 14.54% [8]. 3.5 Cotton Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased 0.22% to 13495, and that of cotton 2601 decreased 0.18% to 13490. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased 0.38% to 14614, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased 0.22% to 14819 [11]. 3.5.2 Industry Indicators - The commercial inventory increased 70.4% to 293.06 tons, and the industrial inventory increased 9.7% to 88.82 tons [11]. 3.6 Sugar Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 rose 0.62% to 5512, and that of sugar 2605 rose 0.41% to 5433. - Spot: The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5660, and the Kunming spot price remained unchanged at 5540 [13]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the national sugar sales increased 9.17% to 1048.00 tons [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased 0.75% to 3040, and the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased 1.72% to 3322. - The egg - producing area price decreased 0.25% to 2.99 yuan per catty [16]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - The egg - chicken feed ratio decreased 1.68% to 2.34, and the breeding profit decreased 8.51% to - 26.52 yuan per chicken [16].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2026, the company reported net revenue of BRL 286.6 million, an adjusted EBITDA of BRL 64 million, and a net loss of BRL 64.3 million, indicating a challenging quarter due to the end of the sugarcane harvest and the planting of new crops [2][22][23] - The operational EBITDA was BRL 64 million, similar to BRL 61.4 million in the same period last year, reflecting stable operational performance despite market volatility [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The sugarcane segment faced challenges with productivity, leading to a decrease in ATR levels from historical averages of 140 kg to around 135-136 kg, impacting overall revenue [22][24] - Soy sales were strong, with 56% of the current harvest sold at BRL 1,072, benefiting from strategic timing in the market [19][20] - Corn prices showed recovery, and the company has a significant volume of corn yet to be sold, indicating potential for future revenue [20][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The sugar market has been under pressure due to global production expectations, leading to lower prices [4][22] - The cotton market experienced a 14% price drop, while cattle raising showed signs of recovery due to export restrictions [4][11] - The company anticipates a good soy harvest in Brazil, with estimates ranging from 178 to 180 million tons [5][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on diversifying its operations across various commodities to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [10][12] - There is an emphasis on cost management and strategic timing in sales to optimize margins, particularly in the soy and corn segments [3][19] - The management is exploring opportunities in biofuels and crushing projects, indicating a long-term strategic shift towards sustainable practices [40][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatility in the agricultural market, particularly influenced by geopolitical factors affecting trade agreements [18][41] - There is optimism regarding the recovery of sugarcane productivity due to improved weather conditions and irrigation strategies [50][51] - The company remains committed to being a dividend-paying entity, reflecting confidence in its long-term financial health despite current challenges [34][35] Other Important Information - The company has a significant amount of receivables, over BRL 650 million, which will positively impact its balance sheet in the coming quarters [20][32] - The company is actively managing its debt levels, with a net debt of BRL 658 million and a focus on maintaining liquidity [32][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected sugarcane harvest scenario? - Management expects about 10% more tons harvested by the end of the harvest year, but acknowledges that market estimates may be overly optimistic [36][37] Question: Can you provide an update on land purchase and sale scenarios? - The company is actively pursuing land sales and sees ongoing opportunities in regions like Bahia, despite challenges posed by interest rates [38][39] Question: What is the perspective on soy imports and market competitiveness? - The company anticipates favorable conditions for soy imports from China, which could enhance competitiveness in the market [40][41] Question: How does the company view the potential for biofuels and M&A? - Management sees biofuels as a long-term opportunity and is exploring M&A possibilities to enhance operational efficiency [40][42] Question: What are the expectations for sugarcane TCH recovery? - Management is optimistic about TCH recovery due to improved weather conditions and irrigation strategies, expecting significant improvements in the next harvest [47][50]