站在"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国经济的增长叙事与资本市场的驱动逻辑正经历一场深刻而静默的切换。 近日，华安证券联席首席策略分析师刘超指出，市场的核心驱动力将告别由流动性主导的估值扩张，转而进入由基本面接棒的盈利修复周期。在这场从预期 到盈利的宏大切换中，消费的结构性变迁、政策的精准滴灌以及盈利的广泛复苏，构成了把握2026年市场脉络的三大支柱。 与此同时，刘超指出，消费正步入缓慢抬升通道，且政策支持重心逐渐从商品转向服务领域。 这一判断直接来自其对消费刺激政策效果的持续跟踪。"以旧换新等商品补贴政策对消费的边际拉动已明显减弱。"刘超指出，"即便政策力度维持，刺激效 果也会随时间自然衰减。"这既受限于耐用品3~5年的自然更新周期，也反映了政策对居民长期消费决策影响的逐步递减，加之当前消费信心仍在修复过程 中，均使得传统补贴模式的效应逐渐弱化。 展望2026年，刘超认为消费政策预计将保持连贯，结构进一步优化。"以旧换新政策有望延续并扩大覆盖范围，对新增品类仍具提振作用，我们预计全年消 费增速将维持在4%左右，虽较2025年可能略有放缓，但增长内涵将发生实质性转变。" 与此同时，刘超强调，增速温和放缓的背后是增长 ...

"2026年将迎来关键的中美政策周期共振，这不仅是宏观需求的重要推手，更将成为A股市场从流动性 驱动迈向盈利驱动新阶段的核心转折点。"近日，在谈及新一年的投资展望时，招商证券首席策略分析 师张夏提出了鲜明观点。 在他看来，以PPI回升为标志的盈利改善将引领市场进入牛市第三阶段，而内需复苏与科技自立构成的 双轮驱动主线，将定义全年的核心机遇。 中美需求共振，有望提振大宗商品需求 2026年A股会面临怎样的宏观环境？ 招商证券策略研究团队认为，过去依赖地产、基建信用扩张的增长模式已式微，2022年后广义政府支出 成为总需求波动的核心边际力量，股市走势与之高度相关。在"十五五"规划开局之年，政策定调积极， 预计财政支出将保持扩张，基建与重大项目集中落地有望带动投资，特别是基建增速回升，与潜在的房 地产企稳政策形成合力，共同对冲出口回落压力，推动内需回暖、总需求增速重回扩张。 与此同时，2026年正值美国中期选举年。"历史规律显示美国政府倾向于推行扩张性财政货币政策以提 振经济"，张夏指出，这与中国"十五五"开局形成中美需求共振，有望提振全球工业金属等大宗商品需 求。同时，在美元信用长期过度扩张、其全球储备货币地位相 ...

2025年，A股在政策、估值、盈利、资金四重支撑下走出了牛市行情。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之 年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，A股市场细分赛道的分化愈发明显。 在这样的背景下，2026年的投资机会如何？驱动2026年行情的核心变量是什么？哪些领域可能成为市场 资金新的"共识"？对于这些问题，私募大佬们又有着怎样独到的判断？近日，《每日经济新闻》记者 （以下简称NBD）带着这些问题，专访了星石投资副总经理方磊。 由估值走向盈利驱动 NBD：从2025年市场表现来看，政策、资金、盈利三大要素的联动效应尤为明显，您认为这三者中哪 个是驱动2026年行情的核心变量？请结合来年的市场特征说明理由。 方磊：2026年驱动股市行情的核心变量是盈利要素，全市场将进入业绩释放期，股市将由估值驱动走向 盈利驱动，各个板块均有投资机会，2026年市场风格与2025年相比有望更为均衡。2025年，人工智能、 高端制造等科技成长板块景气度率先修复，顺周期等传统行业基本面及预期相对低迷，共同造成了科技 成长风格估值率先修复、累计涨幅突出的局面。 进入2026年，人工智能产业链景气度有望延续，虽然高估值可能会带来波动放大，但盈 ...

Group 1: Industry Developments - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has approved two mandatory national standards for civil unmanned aerial vehicles, which will be implemented starting May 1, 2026, promoting safer and more orderly industry development [6] - Dinglong Co. is set to begin trial production of high-end wafer photoresist, having received orders from major domestic wafer manufacturers, accelerating the domestic substitution process in semiconductor materials [6] - Significant advancements in quantum computing have been reported, with the "Zu Chongzhi 3.2" superconducting quantum processor achieving key technological progress, which is expected to accelerate the practical application of quantum computing [6] - Baidu is collaborating with Uber and Lyft to conduct trial runs of autonomous taxis in the UK, marking progress in the export of autonomous driving technology, attracting market attention to related domestic industries such as lidar and onboard algorithms [6] - Chasing Technology has launched the world's first AI health glasses, which monitor health indicators such as heart rate and blood oxygen levels, with expectations for rapid growth in the AI glasses market by 2026 [6] Group 2: Company News - MiniMax and Zhiyu Huazhang, AI model startups, have received approval for their overseas IPO plans, with MiniMax aiming to raise up to $700 million by issuing up to 33,577,240 shares [7] - Wallen Technology has begun accepting subscriptions for its Hong Kong IPO, with the first day of oversubscription reaching nearly 47 times, aiming to raise up to HKD 4.85 billion [7] - Liying Intelligent Manufacturing has signed a share transfer agreement to acquire a 35% stake in Liminda for CNY 875 million, gaining control over 52.78% of the voting rights [7] - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit of CNY 3.874 billion to CNY 4.649 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% to 50% [7] - Huaxia Happiness announced that its board of directors will not submit a temporary proposal from Ping An Life for shareholder meeting review, as the proposal was not approved [7] - Yongding Co.'s subsidiary plans to raise CNY 55 million through external investment, involving several investors [7] - Duoke Culture has announced a potential change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading for up to two trading days [7] - Lingyun Optical's subsidiary plans to invest up to $5 million in the IPO of Zhiyu on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - Vanke has disclosed an extension of the grace period for its mid-term notes, increasing the grace period from 5 to 30 trading days without penalty interest [7] - Kuaishou has experienced a severe cybersecurity incident, leading to the spread of inappropriate content, with the platform currently addressing the issue [7] - Apple has been fined €98 million by the Italian antitrust authority for alleged abuse of market dominance regarding its app tracking transparency policy, with plans to appeal the decision [10] - Paramount has modified its acquisition offer for Warner Bros, with Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison providing $40.4 billion in equity financing guarantees to alleviate concerns about the stability of the acquisition funds [10]

Market Overview - Major US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.23%, Nasdaq up 0.64%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [1] - The seven major US tech companies saw a general increase, with Nvidia rising by 1.2% and Tesla reaching a historic high with a 3.38% increase, bringing its market value to $1.65 trillion, a cumulative increase of 57% over the last 120 trading days [3][4] Tesla Developments - Tesla's stock price reached $497.47, with a market capitalization of $1,654.5 billion and a P/E ratio of 326 [4] - Tesla signed an agreement with Matrix Renewable Energy to develop a battery storage project in the UK [3] Chinese Stock Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market will continue its upward trend into 2026, although at a slower pace [5] - Analysts expect a shift from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven" market dynamics, with corporate earnings projected to grow by 14% in the next year and 12% in 2027, alongside a valuation expansion of around 10% [5] - The Chinese stock market could see a potential increase of 38% by the end of 2027 [5] Commodity Market Insights - Spot gold prices surged over 2%, reaching a historic high of $4,427.80 per ounce, while silver prices also broke through $69 per ounce, increasing by over 3% [6][8] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors including a loose monetary cycle, high fiscal deficits, and a global manufacturing recovery [10] Gold Price Projections - Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that gold prices will continue to rise, with a baseline scenario of $4,900 per ounce next year, indicating potential upward risks [11] - The current price of gold is seen as part of a super cycle, with the $4,400 per ounce level possibly being a midpoint in this cycle [11]

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 股指 国投期货 2026 年度策略报告 ——盈车嘉穗，风禾尽起 2025 年 12 月 王伟钰 分析师 从业资格证号：F03142688 近期相关报告： 《挖掘潜能，政策集成———— 2025 年中央经济工作会议点 评》20251212 《降息落地叠加扩表维稳，"鹰 派降息"压力缓和——2025 年 12 月份美联储议息会议点 评》20251211 《坚守高质量的强国之路 —< 中国共产党第二十届中央委员 会第四次全体会议公报 >政策 解析》20251026 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 0 各项声明请参见报告尾页 | 目录 | | --- | | 1. 市场回顾与宏观展望：盈车嘉穗 3 | | --- | | 1.1. A股市场回顾 3 韩泽文 | | 分析师 | | 1.2. 宏观展望 6 | | 2. 估值与驱动 7 | | 2.1. 中资定价权的稳步回归 8 | | 王伟钰 | | 2.2. 当前估值所处历史位置与横向对比 9 分析师 | | 2.3. 股息率与风险溢价 11 | | 2.4. 利润增速是相对偏强指数的有力支撑 13 | | 3. 投资者结构与基差中枢展望：波 ...

江勇表示，自己正以"极致分散+安全边际"策略应对市场潜在波动，通过量化模型辅助挖掘低估值、盈 利确定性标的，在严控回撤前提下把握慢牛机遇。 始终遵循"绝对收益"理念 在当前低利率市场环境下，固定收益类资产的回报走低，加之权益市场逐步回暖，"固收+"产品性价比 凸显，日益受到投资者关注。 江勇早年在期货公司做研究员，后来加入海富通基金，现任混合资产投资部总经理、基金经理。他擅长 资产配置，拥有指数增强、被动指数、二级债基、偏债混合等多元产品管理经验。这些经验使得他对 于"固收+"类产品有一套成熟的、系统化的资产配置方法论。 海富通基金/供图 "当前A股或正步入慢牛格局，其核心驱动力来自估值修复与盈利改善的双重共振。"海富通基金混合资 产投资部总经理江勇在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，当前银行股超4%的股息率已显著高于十年期国 债收益，周期行业盈利触底回升预期升温，叠加市场情绪回暖，权益资产配置性价比凸显。 以他管理时间较长的海富通欣睿混合A为例，该基金行业和个股高度分散。自2021年2月9日基金成立以 来，半年报和年报披露的全部持仓股票，数量均超过150只，多数时候在250只左右，前十大重仓股票市 值合计占股票投 ...

梁跃军认为，A股市场在功能定位、资金格局、支持科技创新和产业升级三个方面已经出现积极变化， 从而带来流动性与估值修复驱动的上涨，这是A股市场持续走好的充分条件。展望2026年，他认为，A 股市场的上涨有望由流动性和估值驱动转换为由盈利驱动，这是A股市场持续走好的必要条件之一。 在2026年度投资策略会上，长城基金权益投资部基金经理苏俊彦认为，市场上涨动力将从单纯估值驱动 转向盈利与估值双轮驱动，结构上从外需拉动转向内外需共振。 近日，华安基金、富国基金、长城基金、朱雀基金等召开策略会，对于市场风格再平衡、科技和AI如 何投资、债券市场如何演绎等，进行了全方位分析。 整体来看，上述公募基金认为，2026年，市场将迈向盈利驱动，风格的再平衡或将发生。硬科技和AI 领域的投资，仍将有明显机会。 市场：从流动性驱动迈向盈利驱动 展望2026年，公募基金不约而同地将"盈利驱动"作为关键词。 12月15日—17日，华安基金举办2026马年投资嘉年华。华安基金副总经理、首席投资官翁启森在会上表 示，2026年市场有望从流动性驱动逐步迈向盈利驱动。全A(非金融)盈利增长有望进一步改善，预计 TMT/制造业保持高增长、周期/消 ...

三是，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升。同时，国内资金开 始从定期存款向多元理财配置转变，保险和银行资管等机构开始"真金白银"入市。 在邢自强看来，全球流动性环境趋于宽松将支持风险资产表现，预计2026年上半年美联储将会有三次降 息，分别在1月、4月和6月进行，这为全球风险资产创造了有利环境。 12月2日，摩根士丹利举办线下媒体圆桌分享会，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强和摩根士丹利中 国首席股票策略师王滢讨论了2026年中国经济和股市策略。 中国股市进入"估值结构性修复"过程 王滢认为，中国股市已经进入了"估值结构性修复"的过程。"今年A股、港股，包括全球机构投资人追 踪最为紧密的明晟中国指数，在估值上取得了非常大程度的修复。尤其港股恒生指数和明晟中国指数， 市盈率修复超30%。"她说。 摩根士丹利表示，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升，中国股 市重新被定义为"有成长性的市场"。该机构小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，将2026年12月沪深300指数 的目标点位定为4840点，并表示"明晟中国指数12个月前瞻市盈率在12至13倍之间是合理的" ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the A-share market is expected to continue in a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, with several brokerages expressing optimism about market performance driven by key events such as the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections [1][2][3] - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach a target of 100 by the end of 2026, indicating a 14% upside from current levels, supported by favorable factors including innovation and global competitiveness of Chinese companies [2][3] - The shift in market drivers from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" growth is anticipated, with expected earnings growth for the entire A-share market around 4.7% in 2026, highlighting the increasing importance of fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - Key investment themes for the upcoming year include AI, with a focus on domestic chip production and applications in robotics and smart driving, as well as the globalization of Chinese companies transitioning to multinational operations [4][5] - The cyclical recovery in sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and clearing excess capacity, with a forecasted narrowing of PPI declines [5] - Consumer sectors may see a rebound if extraordinary stimulus measures are introduced, with long-term focus areas including health, emotional consumption, and internationalization [5]