Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's monetary policy and credit data, indicating a mixed outlook with signs of both improvement and concern in various sectors of the economy [3][4][11]. Monetary Policy and Credit Data - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, significantly lower than the expected 802.6 billion and the previous year's 950 billion [3][4]. - New social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating a better-than-expected performance [11]. - The growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, slightly below expectations, while M1 growth improved to 2.3% [3][12]. Sector Analysis - The residential short-term loans have seen negative growth for two consecutive months, reflecting weak consumer spending, while medium to long-term loans have turned positive, aligning with real estate sales trends [5][6]. - Corporate short-term financing has increased significantly, indicating improved cash flow pressures, while medium to long-term loans have continued to show less growth due to weakened investment sentiment amid tariff disturbances [9][11]. Government and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing was a major support for social financing, with 1.46 trillion issued, while corporate bond financing also showed positive growth, suggesting that corporate financing conditions have not deteriorated significantly [13]. - The article highlights that the overall credit expansion is still heavily influenced by fiscal policies, with a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, down from 7.7% in March, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.4%[3] - High-tech industries maintained a strong performance with a 10% year-on-year growth in April, although slightly down from 10.7% in March[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4% in April, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter[3] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[3] - Jewelry retail sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than the previous month's 10.6% growth[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales also showed strong growth at 38.8% year-on-year in April, up from 35.1% in March[3] Employment and External Factors - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions[3] - Despite external pressures, domestic demand indicators such as employment and retail sales did not show signs of a sharp decline, suggesting resilience in the economy[3] - The report highlights potential risks from export-driven growth strategies that may affect the second half of the year[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for April 2025. M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of April 2025 increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The accelerated implementation of existing fiscal policies and government financing supported the growth of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, and the initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13]. - The low base and capital re - flow drove the rebound of M2 growth. At the end of April, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rebounded by 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating weak corporate investment willingness [3][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Financing Supports the Stable Growth of Social Financing - The implementation of existing fiscal policies accelerated, and government financing supported the significant rebound of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan, 135.72 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - Credit in the social financing caliber in April was weak. New RMB loans were 8.44 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Direct financing: corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan in April, 6.33 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 3.92 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Non - standard financing: new non - standard financing decreased by 28.73 billion yuan in April, 13.86 billion yuan less than the same period last year [13]. - New RMB loans in the financial institution caliber in April were 28 billion yuan, 45 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate department: corporate loans increased by 61 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident department: resident loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][14]. 3.2 Low Base and Capital Re - flow Drive the Rebound of M2 Growth - At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The low base caused by the rectification of "manual interest compensation" and "squeezing water" in financial data last year, combined with the acceleration of deposit creation by government financing and the reduction of capital re - flow to wealth management products, pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M2. M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating that corporate investment willingness needs to be improved. The M1 - M2 gap was negative, and the absolute value widened to 6.50 pct [23]. - In terms of deposit structure, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year. Household deposits decreased by 139 billion yuan in April, 46 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 132.97 billion yuan, 54.28 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 157.1 billion yuan, 190.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 37.1 billion yuan, 27.29 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3][23]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Credit supply needs to pick up. The social financing data in April verified the policy effect of the front - loaded fiscal policy. Government bonds became the core source of increment, and the credit structure may reflect the strengthened support for key areas of the real economy. Although the credit growth rate may be disturbed by debt replacement in the short term, the supporting role of finance in the economy will continue to appear under the synergistic effect of policies [4][30]. - April is a traditional "low - credit month", and combined with the uncertainty of foreign trade, credit demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, a package of financial policies introduced in May is expected to boost confidence. In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of special treasury bonds and the marginal impact of changes in the foreign trade environment on the demand side. The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted from "responding to shocks" to "structural breakthroughs" [4][30]. - There is adjustment pressure in the short - term bond market, and the yield curve of bonds becomes steeper. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm, trading accounts increase positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to the opportunity to intervene when the supply of local bonds increases [4][30].

Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is expected to have significant impacts on the market [1][2] - There is a high expectation for continued monetary easing, but the timing of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor due to internal and external interest rate differentials [2][3] - Recent social financing data indicates a positive signal, with government departments initiating credit expansion, although both residents and enterprises remain cautious [3] Group 2 - The market has experienced significant volatility, leading to challenges in timing investments correctly, with many investors feeling they are "only earning the index but not making money" despite a nearly 10% index increase since April 7 [3][4] - Investors often misjudge market movements, leading to poor decision-making, such as selling at lows or buying at highs, which can result in missed opportunities [4][6] - Understanding the true intentions of institutional funds is crucial for improving trading success rates, as many investors rely solely on price movements [6][7] Group 3 - Advanced data analytics can help identify different trading behaviors, allowing investors to better align their strategies with market movements [7][9] - The analysis of trading behaviors reveals that price movements may not always reflect the underlying intentions of institutional investors, highlighting the importance of data-driven insights [9][11] - There are multiple trading behaviors beyond simple price increases or decreases, which can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, have officially taken effect, but their impact on the market may not be fully recognized [1] - There is a significant expectation for continued monetary easing, but further interest rate cuts will depend on the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding interest rate differentials [2][4] - Recent economic data from the U.S. has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts to the third or even fourth quarter [3] Group 2 - The credit expansion in the government sector is noted, with recent social financing data indicating that government financing is the primary area of expansion [4][5] - The market has experienced frequent shifts in focus, leading to a situation where many investors feel they have not profited despite the index rising nearly 10% since April 7 [7] - The volatility in the market is attributed to investors making decisions based on price movements rather than understanding the underlying intentions of institutional funds [11] Group 3 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of tracking institutional trading behaviors through big data, which can reveal different trading actions beyond just price movements [12][14] - The data indicates that there are multiple trading behaviors, and understanding these can help investors align their strategies with market trends [16]

回顾:央行昨日开展了645亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日1586亿元逆回购和 1250亿元MLF到期,据此计算,单日全口径净回笼2191亿元。 热评:周五央行公开市场将有770亿元逆回购到期。5月7日举行的国新办 新闻发布会上,中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管 理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,并 答记者问。发布会上,中国人民银行行长潘功胜公布了央行将降准0.5个百 分点、降低政策利率0.1个百分点、降低个人住房公积金房贷利率25bp、降 低结构性货币政策工具利率25bp、增加3000亿元技术创新再贷款额度、设 立5000亿元养老再贷款额度、增加3000亿元支农支小再贷款额度等举措。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024[5] - The increase in social financing was partly due to a low base from the previous year, where April 2024 saw a decrease of 658 million yuan in new social financing[7] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan from January to April 2025, and 976.2 billion yuan in April alone, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Credit and Loan Insights - In April 2025, new credit amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate bill financing being the main support at 834.1 billion yuan[12] - The decline in credit performance in April is attributed to several factors, including local government debt replacement leading to loan repayments and external trade tensions affecting export financing activities[12] - Resident loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan in April, indicating a need for improved leverage willingness among households[16] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rebounded to 8.0% in April, up 1 percentage point from March, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year[21] - The short-term policy stance has been clarified in recent political meetings, indicating a gradual approach to policy adjustments, with a focus on real estate and domestic demand trends[21] - External uncertainties are rising, which may impact future economic data and financial metrics, prompting potential additional policy measures if conditions weaken[25]

Important News - The US has adjusted tariffs on China as of May 14, 00:01 Eastern Time [1] - China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation clarified that account verification is a routine operation, not a special arrangement for "off-market financing" [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that from January to April, the total social financing increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 10.06 trillion yuan, and M2 growth year-on-year at 8% [1] Company News - Tencent (00700.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK) received an increase of approximately 302 million H-shares from Sinopec Group [1] - Longfor Properties (06968.HK) reported contract sales of approximately 1.804 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - Oceanwide Holdings (03377.HK) reported cumulative contract sales of approximately 8.09 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 13.62% [1] - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) reported original insurance premium income of 85.3791 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) reported original insurance premium income of 115.359 billion yuan from Pacific Life Insurance in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - Heng Rui Medicine plans to issue 224.5 million shares in Hong Kong, with an issue price not exceeding 44.05 HKD [1] - Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) announced that its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, plans to provide a loan to the company not exceeding 1.552 billion yuan [1] - Greentown China Holdings (00095.HK) has postponed the hearing for its liquidation application to July 9 [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]