风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长助攻 投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 指数触及波动区，结构仍值得关注 朝闻道 20260114 市场策略 指数触及波动区，结构仍值得关注 行业策略 有色：退税政策催化，锂价再上涨 主题策略 机器人：相关催化剂增多，T 链进可攻退可守 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、机器人量产进程不及预期等风险 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 警惕指数遇扰动，关注"AI+"低位补涨： 朝闻道 20260112 2026-01-10 指数震荡稳行，市场多点开花：朝闻道 20260109 2026-01-08 非银助力开门红，缓涨更健康：朝闻道 20260107 2026-01-07 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 指数多日连阳后遇阻，但总体呈现量价齐升格局，当前有色化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "high-low switch" and "hot-cold differentiation," indicating significant divergence among sectors, with a notable increase in trading volume exceeding 2.4 trillion, reflecting intense competition between bulls and bears [1][4]. Market Analysis - The previously hot sectors such as aerospace, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors are undergoing a collective correction, which is seen as a normal adjustment after substantial gains [4]. - Meanwhile, funds are shifting towards undervalued sectors with strong performance support or short-term catalysts, suggesting a transition from sentiment-driven trading to a focus on fundamentals and value [4]. Strategy Recommendations - For investors with heavy positions, especially in the sectors that have corrected, it is advisable to consider reducing positions during intraday rebounds to maintain a comfortable level of exposure and retain some liquidity for future opportunities [5]. - Shift focus from chasing hot stocks to identifying fundamentally strong companies with real orders and performance backing, observing which sectors or stocks stabilize first during market fluctuations, as they may attract future capital [5]. - Maintain patience and adhere to long-term growth narratives in technology, as short-term volatility does not alter the underlying logic, and it is prudent to wait for more certain and favorable conditions before making significant moves [5].

文|文夏 来源|财富独角兽 2026新年开局，A股市场交出一份火热答卷。 上证指数稳稳站上4100点，沪深两市成交额飙至3万亿。Wind数据显示，2026年首周，上证指数上涨 3.8%、创业板指上涨 3.9%、科创50 涨幅最高，达到 9.8%。行业方面，芯片、AI 应用、商业航天、医药等赛道集体爆发，赚钱效应持续升温。 与此同时，笔者发现这一系列密集涌动的市场热点，呈现出清晰的延续性——它们都是 2025年资本市场那条最核心的科技成长主线的深化和拓展，硬科 技风范尽显。值得一提的是，招商证券在A股2026年投资策略展望表示，2026年市场主线仍是科技。 当2025年行情中最耀眼的科技、AI等主线在2026年开年继续轮动上涨时，基民的核心问题再次浮出水面：面对持续的结构性机会，普通投资者如何通过 基金投资把握行情？ 或许，刚刚尘埃落定的2025年主动权益基金榜单能给我们提供有价值的参考。 01 2025年各公募基金公司权益表现 回首2025年，从年初DeepSeek概念引爆AI算力、光模块，到年末商业航天、人形机器人、GPU自主化等硬科技题材再升温，科技主线贯穿始终，重仓大 科技的主动权益基金获得"大丰收"。 ...

【博时市场点评1月12日】两市放量上涨，成交创历史新高 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数放量上涨，沪指涨超1%，深证成指、创业板指均涨超1.7%。两市成交今日突破3.6万 亿，创历史新高，资金交易情绪持续活跃。12月CPI同比上涨0.7%，环比上涨0.2%，创2024年3月以来 新高；PPI同比降幅继续收窄，环比由平转涨。价格体系逐步筑底向好，核心CPI持续稍弱说明内需复苏 仍属弱弹性，PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛至约-2.6个百分点，中游制造企业盈利压力边际缓解。当前国内基本面 处于"弱复苏+低通胀"阶段，CPI温和回升、PPI触底反弹，但内生动力仍待持续提升。政策端通过财政 金融协同、扩大公共服务、引导产业升级等多维手段托底经济。对权益市场而言，"风险偏好提升+盈 利预期边际改善" 引导市场热度提升，配置上或可关注 "科技成长为主+顺周期为辅" 的策略，同时密切 跟踪1月中下旬即将公布的社融、信贷及春节消费数据，以验证复苏成色。 消息面 根据国际电信联盟官网信息，我国在2025年12月25日至31日期间，集中提交了新增20.3万颗卫星的频率 与轨道资源申请，覆盖14个卫星星座。这是我国迄今规模最大的一次国际频轨集中 ...

元旦后资金在向上行情预期下出现抢筹行为，两市成交额显著增长，推升高风险偏好的科技成长方向， 同时低位科技开始修复。 具体来看，上周市场整体维持普涨格局，科技成长与资源品双主线延续，军工板块行情从商业航天扩散 至其他细分领域，AI应用相关的传媒、计算机行业走强。 宏观分析：国内通胀维持稳中有升态势 国内方面，12月通胀维持稳中有升态势，核心通胀韧性仍在。国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月 CPI同比增速+0.8%，环比+0.2%；PPI同比增速-1.9%，环比回升至0.2%。主要受益于四个原因：一是食 品对CPI的拖累减小，二是输入型影响因素加强，包括能源、黄金和有色等，三是黑色金属价格相对平 稳，四是政策的持续影响。不过中长期回升依然需要居民资产负债表的持续修复。接下来进入数据真空 期，需关注春季新开工与1-2月经济数据的验证。 政策层面，央行继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。2026年中国人民银 行工作会议指出，要灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件 相对宽松。畅通货币政策传导机制，发挥好政策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综 ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2026-1-12 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 指数连阳，热情高涨 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种走势以连续上涨为主，其中上中证 500 和中证 1000 的涨幅相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度有 所收窄，大部分主力合约保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货- 现货基差，IH 收于 0.48，IF 收于-15.12，IC 收于-18.89，IM 收 于-80.78。 投资咨询号： 上周A股市场走出连续上涨的行情，上证指数日K线连收五阳， 累计收出 16 连阳，创出 10 年来新高，上证指数周线涨幅接近 4%， 深圳成指和创业板指数也联袂上扬，市场呈现出一定的牛市风格特 征。市场超强的背后是两市成交量的连续增长，市场的投资风险偏 好明显提升，这是值得投资者注意的积极信号。从市场中期趋势看， 上涨空间已经逐渐打开，中线行情明显乐观;市场热点较多，从主 线来看，依然是延续科技成长主线和顺周期主线，权重股方面，有 色和券商增量资金介入明显，军工和科技持续活跃，AI 产业链和 AI 应用端轮番发力。 综合分析： 宏观方面，0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 stock market has seen a significant recovery for active equity fund managers, with the CSI Equity Fund Index rising by 31.14%, yet investor confidence in active equity funds remains low, as evidenced by a decline in fund shares despite an increase in total assets [1][25]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Over 70 funds achieved annual returns exceeding 100%, with the top-performing fund, managed by Ren Jie, yielding 233.69%, surpassing the previous record set in 2007 [1][25]. - Despite the strong performance, the overall share of active equity funds decreased by 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and 15.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating that growth in assets was primarily due to net value increases rather than new subscriptions [1][25]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Investor Preferences - In 2025, ETFs saw a growth of over 2 trillion yuan, reaching a total of 6 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs alone accounting for 3.8 trillion yuan [2][26]. - Even with some active funds showing impressive returns, many did not attract significant investment, as seen with the fund "Jiaoyin Youze" which had a return of 140% but a scale of less than 1 billion yuan [2][26]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics - Active equity funds have focused on high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, with top-performing funds heavily concentrated in these areas, achieving returns of over 80% for around 200 funds [4][28]. - The strategy of concentrating on specific sectors has led to a significant number of funds doubling their returns, but the overall market remains competitive with ETFs capturing a larger share of investor interest [4][28]. Group 4: Challenges Faced by Active Fund Managers - Active fund managers are under pressure from the growing popularity of ETFs, which offer lower fees and easier trading options, leading to a shift in investor preference [3][34]. - Many active fund managers struggle to differentiate their strategies, often leading to a lack of unique positioning in a crowded market, which diminishes investor confidence [7][32]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Active Equity Funds - The path forward for active equity fund managers may involve adopting strategies that align more closely with index performance while still seeking opportunities for excess returns [20][21]. - There is potential for active managers to focus on niche sectors that are not well-covered by ETFs, allowing them to meet specific investor needs [31][32].

1月12日，港股集体高开，其中恒生指数涨0.55%，报26376.84点，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，报5737.43 点，国企指数涨0.75%，报9116.01点，红筹指数涨0.68%，报4129.13点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨0.27%，腾讯控股涨0.82%，京东集团涨0.87%，小米集团跌 0.21%，网易涨0.37%，美团涨2.84%，快手涨1.47%，哔哩哔哩涨2.06%；贵金属板块多股高开，赤峰黄 金涨4%，紫金矿业涨2.72%；商业航天概念继续活跃，亚太卫星涨超5%；芯片股高开，天数智芯涨超 3%；今日豪威集团登陆港交所，首日高开逾3%。 企业新闻 舜宇光学科技(02382.HK)：12月手机镜头出货量为9559.2万件，同比减少8.9%。车载镜头出货量为747.7 万件，同比增长17.7%。手机摄像模组出货量为3774.4万件，同比减少29.3%。主要受客户年底的库存管 控、圣诞节假期等因素影响。 东方海外国际(00316.HK)：截至2025年12月31日止第4季度的航线收入较去年同期减少17.2%，报20.81 亿美元。总载货量上升0.8%，运载力上升4.5%。整体运载率较 ...

◎记者 赵明超 在2026年开年以来的行情中，多只基金的实际净值与估算净值产生较大偏差，表明基金持仓已发生明显 变化。从上市公司公告看，机构不仅密集调仓换股，还在加大调研力度，对先进制造领域的关注度显著 提升。 从上市公司近期发布的公告可以看出，部分机构的持仓发生了变化。 根据珀莱雅发布的回购公告，与2025年三季度末持仓情况相比，截至2025年12月30日，刘彦春管理的景 顺长城新兴成长混合基金减持珀莱雅73.2万股，张伟锋管理的东方红睿玺三年持有期混合基金减持10.67 万股。此外，胡昕炜管理的汇添富消费行业混合基金已不是前十大流通股股东。在上述主动权益类基金 减持之际，兴业收益增强债券基金新晋珀莱雅前十大流通股股东。从珀莱雅股价表现来看，自2025年5 月以来持续下行。 而对于科伦药业，机构之间分歧明显。根据科伦药业发布的回购公告，2025年四季度，葛兰管理的中欧 医疗健康混合基金减持科伦药业186.7万股。截至2025年底，唐晓斌管理的广发多因子混合基金已退出 科伦药业前十大流通股股东之列，结合上市公司定期报告分析发现，2025年四季度，广发多因子混合基 金减持科伦药业超1000万股。不过，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant discrepancies between the actual net asset values and estimated net asset values of several funds since the beginning of the year, indicating that fund managers may have adjusted their portfolios towards popular sectors such as technology growth and commercial aerospace. However, some fund managers are now warning of increased investment difficulties and the risks of excessive speculation in concept stocks [2][10]. Fund Performance Analysis - Since the start of the year, the market has experienced a volatile upward trend, with certain hot concept stocks surging. For instance, the Guangfa Zhaoli Mixed Fund saw its net value increase by 6.99% on January 8, despite seven of its top ten holdings declining in value on the same day [3][4]. - The Guangfa Zhaoli Mixed Fund's net value rose again by 5.29% on January 9, indicating a potential significant adjustment in its holdings since the end of the third quarter of 2025 [3]. - Similarly, the Zhongjia Advantage Enterprise Mixed Fund's net value increased by 6.21% on January 8, while nine of its top ten holdings also saw declines that day [5][6]. - The Guangfa Yuanshi Zhixuan Mixed Fund experienced a net value increase of 4.83% on January 7, with six of its top ten holdings declining in value [7][9]. - The Huitianfu Competitive Advantage Mixed Fund reported a net value increase of 7.2% on January 7, despite seven of its top ten holdings declining, with the highest performer being Dongfang Tieta, which rose by 3.04% [10]. Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - Recent market trends suggest that the aforementioned funds hold a significant number of technology growth-related assets, with several semiconductor equipment-themed ETFs rising over 7% on January 7 [10]. - The first quarterly reports for 2025 have begun to reveal the specific paths of institutional portfolio adjustments, with new top holdings emerging in various funds, including Jie Rui Co., Xiaopeng Motors-W, and Tianfu Communication [10][11]. - Fund managers are increasingly cautious about the commercial aerospace sector, emphasizing the need for thorough evaluations based on technological barriers, order scale, and application progress. They warn against overvalued "pseudo-commercial aerospace" stocks lacking clear application scenarios [12]. - Investment difficulty is reportedly increasing, necessitating deeper understanding and research into listed companies, with some managers adjusting their portfolios to include more balanced and lower-valued assets [12][13].