Core Viewpoint - The market is showing its first bearish signal in half a year, with a recommendation to reduce positions in the main board and small-cap sectors to low levels, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Market Performance - Last week, the market recorded gains, with the CSI 300 index up 1.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, and the CSI 500 index up 3.38%. Speculative funds became active again, pushing various sector indices to their highs before August [3]. Economic Indicators - The domestic economy is showing signs of weakening while inflation is rising. Recent import and export data showed significant weakness, which has hindered the enthusiasm of some institutional investors. Financial data released last Friday appeared stable but is actually weakening, with expectations of a slowdown in year-on-year growth in the coming months. Meanwhile, CPI and PPI data have shown a rebound, indicating a temporary stagflation cycle in the Chinese economy [3][4]. Technical Analysis - There is a deepening divergence in the funding landscape. While the market has been driven by funds since June, institutional funds have shown a more decisive reduction in positions, while speculative funds are attempting a final upward push. The strength of technical signals has weakened [4]. Sector Positioning - The main board's market-driving forces are becoming increasingly differentiated, shifting from fundamentals to funds, and then to speculative funds. This indicates that market volatility is likely to increase further. The recommendation is to reduce positions in the main board to low levels, marking the first sell signal in half a year. The small-cap sector also showed slight advantages due to speculative activity, but overall differentiation has increased, suggesting a balanced style for the time being [5]. Short-term Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.43%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.73%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.24% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 325.2053 billion, with the total short-selling amount on the main board reaching HKD 43.934 billion, accounting for 14.859% of the total turnover of shortable stocks [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - Southbound funds continued to flow strongly into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of HKD 18.989 billion through the Stock Connect [3] - The most actively traded stocks among the top ten in the Hong Kong Stock Connect included Alibaba (9988.HK), Innovent Biologics (1801.HK), and SMIC (981.HK) for net purchases, while Tencent (700.HK), CanSino Biologics (9926.HK), and Meituan (3690.HK) saw the most net sales [3] Group 3: Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a collective decline due to rumors of stricter regulations from the Trump administration on Chinese drugs, particularly experimental drugs [4] - Notable declines included Gilead Sciences (1672.HK) down 19.66%, Tigermed (3347.HK) down 9.36%, and BeiGene (6160.HK) down 6.92% [4] - The consumer sector also weakened, with Meituan (3690.HK) down 5.06% and other consumer stocks like Li Ning (2331.HK) and Great Wall Motors (2333.HK) also experiencing declines [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector - TSMC reported an 8% year-on-year increase in sales for August, indicating strong global demand for advanced AI chips [5] - The semiconductor sector saw gains, with stocks like ChipMOS Technologies (2166.HK) up 8.99% and SMIC (981.HK) up 4.97% [5] Group 5: Software and Internet Industry Analysis - Alibaba's Amap launched the "Amap Street Ranking," which is based on user behavior analysis and covers over 300 cities, competing with Meituan's Dianping [8][9] - The online penetration rate in the dine-in and travel market remains low, indicating significant market potential [10] - The estimated GTV for Meituan's dine-in and travel business in 2024 is approximately HKD 950 billion, representing 5.2% of the service consumption scale [10] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba's Amap has a potential reach of 900 million MAUs, compared to Baidu Maps' 580 million, indicating a significant competitive advantage [11] - Meituan has integrated its dine-in and delivery services, with nearly 15 million active merchants on its platform, making it challenging for new entrants to gain market share quickly [11] - The report suggests that the dine-in and travel market is still a blue ocean, with new players likely to increase user scale and online penetration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to overcome inflation risks and weak employment prospects, ending the year with upward momentum, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Two-thirds of survey respondents believe the S&P 500 index will continue to rise through 2025, largely due to signals of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant drop in non-farm payroll data has led traders to bet on three interest rate cuts this year, starting from September 17 [1] - Less than one-fifth of respondents view economic data recovery as a catalyst for stock market gains, indicating prevailing economic concerns [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, it may dampen investor enthusiasm, similar to last year's scenario where a 50 basis point cut led to a decline in the S&P 500 [2] - The current economic environment is characterized by mild stagflation, with inflation expected to rise slightly while unemployment worsens [4] - Despite a stagnant job market and challenges in the real estate sector, manufacturing and service sectors show signs of improvement, contributing to a favorable environment for the stock market [4] Group 3: Asset Performance Expectations - Respondents anticipate that stocks will provide higher risk-adjusted returns compared to bonds in the coming month [6] - There is a divergence among respondents regarding the future movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but most expect the yield curve to steepen due to ongoing inflation and fiscal concerns [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference unexpectedly conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally [1] - The immediate market reaction included a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a record closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [1] - Market participants exhibited a mixed sentiment, with expectations for liquidity easing contrasted by worries about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term stock market growth [1] - Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole provided short-term relief to market tensions, but the true test will come from upcoming economic data in the following weeks [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The industrial production growth is differentiated, with the electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors leading, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] - High-end equipment manufacturing, such as shipbuilding and mobile communication base stations, has seen a surge in output, while high-tech manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in integrated circuits [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: Out of 41 industrial categories, 35 reported growth with an overall growth rate of 8%, slightly lower than June's figures. Equipment manufacturing grew at 8.4%, consistently outperforming overall industrial growth for 24 months [2] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: The overall growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed to 1.6%, with real estate being a major drag. Excluding real estate, the growth rate is 5.3%. Manufacturing investment remains relatively stable at 6.2% [3][4] - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market is facing a negative cycle of weak sales, reduced construction starts, and investment contraction. From January to July, real estate investment fell by 12%, with a monthly decline of 17% in July [5] - **Consumer Retail Trends**: The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a significant slowdown. However, policies promoting the replacement of old appliances have positively impacted retail sales in categories like home appliances [6] - **Service Consumption**: Service consumption grew by 5.2% from January to July, with a notable increase in travel and leisure services during the summer [7] Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecast**: The economic growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, with real estate continuing to be a major drag on the economy. However, the target of 5% annual growth remains achievable [8] - **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, showed mixed results. The PPI exceeded expectations, leading to market volatility, while the core CPI remains resilient [9][10] - **Inflation Dynamics**: Current inflation in the US appears manageable, with service prices rebounding, particularly in air travel and medical services. However, the prices of tariff-sensitive goods have shown mixed trends [10][11][12] - **Retail Performance in the US**: US retail data for July showed a solid performance with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by promotional activities in department stores, although service-related sectors remain weak [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and challenges of various industries, particularly in the context of economic data and trends.

Group 1 - After entering August, both domestic and international gold prices have rebounded, with New York gold reaching a high of $3470.3 per ounce on August 7, recovering losses from late July [1] - The Shanghai gold futures contract closed at 785.02 yuan per gram on August 7, marking an increase of nearly 2% since the end of July [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data for July, which has raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. services PMI for July fell to 50.1, below expectations, while the prices index rose to 69.9, indicating inflationary pressures [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased to 90%, which is expected to support gold prices [2] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, an increase of 60,000 ounces [2] Group 3 - Since May, the international trade friction has eased, leading to a slight adjustment in international gold prices, although they remain high [3] - The ongoing geopolitical and economic changes have reduced the necessity for China to pause its gold purchases, while the demand for optimizing international reserve structures has increased [3] - The expectation of further rate cuts and uncertainties in the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical landscape are likely to support gold prices in the medium term [3]

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - President Trump stated that the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine depends on President Putin [1] - Putin expressed interest in a meeting with Trump and mentioned the UAE as a suitable location for such a meeting [1] - Putin indicated that conditions need to be created for a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] Group 2: Israel-Gaza Conflict - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced plans for military control over the entire Gaza Strip, aiming to transfer governance to capable Arab forces [2] - Hamas condemned Netanyahu's statements, claiming they reflect a continuation of violence against Palestinians and a rejection of negotiation processes [2] - Hamas warned that any forces formed under Netanyahu's plan would be viewed as occupying forces [2] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [3] - The Bank cited ongoing economic stagnation and rising inflation, with food prices contributing to an expected peak inflation rate of 4% in September [3] - The rate cut aligns with market expectations amid concerns over rising unemployment and global trade impacts from US tariff policies [3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve Appointments - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to fill a vacant position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [4][5] - Moore previously served as a senior economic advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a PhD in economics from Harvard [5] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded and are experiencing high volatility, with New York gold reaching $3,470.3 per ounce on August 7 [6] - The rebound is attributed to disappointing US employment data and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts and ongoing economic uncertainties will support gold prices in the medium term [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Headwinds - The market is increasingly concerned about "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI nearing the threshold and the price index soaring to 69.9%, a three-year high [2] - Investors are selling industrial metals like copper in favor of safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds due to fears of stagnant growth and high inflation [2] Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The tariff policy from the Trump administration has targeted the copper supply chain, imposing a 50% tax on semi-finished products like copper cables while exempting refined copper [3] - This has led U.S. wire importers to cancel orders and forced Chinese copper processing companies to relocate to Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Uncertainty - The sudden announcement of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership has raised concerns about potential delays in interest rate cuts, prompting copper bulls to exit the market [4] - This uncertainty has contributed to increased market volatility and further depressed copper prices [4] Group 4: Inventory Dynamics - LME copper inventories surged by 14,275 tons (10.23%) on August 5, reaching a five-month high, primarily due to U.S. traders selling off during the tariff exemption window [7] - In contrast, the Chinese market is experiencing a shortage of copper, with significant price discrepancies between regions, indicating an underlying inventory crisis [7] Group 5: Industry Chain Challenges - Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to -42.09 USD/ton, resulting in losses for smelters [8] - The cost of production for Chilean copper has risen to 2.10 USD/pound, while smelters are struggling to maintain profitability [8] Group 6: Market Reactions - On August 6, stocks of copper companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper saw significant price increases, driven by speculation around policy expectations [9] - However, futures markets remain focused on real inventory levels and weak consumption, leading to narrow trading ranges for copper contracts [9] Group 7: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the demand for copper driven by electrification remains strong, with Tesla's Shanghai factory increasing copper cable orders by 35% year-on-year [10] - Strategic stockpiling activities by various entities, including the Chinese state reserves and U.S. military contractors, are also noteworthy [10] Group 8: Conclusion - The short-term fluctuations in copper prices are influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, tariff policies, supply chain dynamics, and market expectations [12] - The future trajectory of copper prices will depend on the resolution of these interrelated factors [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a short - term volatile and bullish pattern. Given the background of potential interest rate cuts by the FOMC this year, the overnight US dollar index and long - term US Treasury yields have corrected. Driven by the sentiment of gold - silver ratio repair, silver prices may show more resilience recently [3]. - If the CPI data in the next few months reflects the substantial impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices may be boosted due to the increasing risk of economic stagflation in the US. Key data to watch include the US New York Fed inflation expectation index and last week's initial jobless claims data. A significant increase in jobless claims and rising inflation expectations may further intensify market concerns about economic stagflation and be beneficial to gold prices [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a strategy of buying on dips in the long term, while paying attention to risk control. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 785.02 yuan/gram, up 1.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 76 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 217,630 lots, up 2,418 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 378,070 lots, up 4,694 lots [3]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 170,427 lots, up 2,102 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 103,977 lots, up 7,502 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,045 kilograms (no change); the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,150,338 kilograms (no change) [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 779.9 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 5.12 yuan/gram; the silver spot price is 9175 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 83 yuan/kilogram [3]. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15,112.28 tons, up 67.81 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 223,596 contracts, down 29,442 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 59,407 contracts, down 1,213 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, down 0.96%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.46%, down 0.02% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for gold is 18.56%, down 0.46% [3]. Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, making the total tariff rate reach 50%. The new 25% tariff will take effect in 21 days, and the first - round 25% tariff will take effect this Thursday. Trump also plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, but companies building factories in the US will be exempted [3]. - **Diplomatic Efforts**: Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. - **Fed's Stance**: Fed's Daly said that policy may need to be adjusted in the next few months. The labor market slowdown is unwelcome, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation in a way that requires monetary policy intervention. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that the US economic slowdown may make short - term interest rate cuts appropriate, and he still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of this year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]