上半年，我国实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，高于全年 5%左右的增长目 标，一定程度上减缓了下半年稳增长的压力，提供了更大的政策操作空间。 二季度，我国经济整体保持在合理区间。以支出法看，二季度我国经济运行 结构呈现一定改善迹象。整体看来，消费主力地位稳固，投资修复动能增 强，净出口虽边际回落但仍有效对冲内需波动，结构性改善趋势逐步显现。 2025 年 6 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.8%，增速回升 1.0pct。 从行业结构来看，制造业依旧是拉动工业增长的核心力量。制造业内部结 构正在逐步向产品附加值更高、技术含量更强的方向调整，为后续工业稳增 长提供了更坚实的基础。不过，传统产业仍呈现出一定疲态。水泥产量同比 下降，钢材产量微增，显示基建与地产相关链条依旧疲弱，未能对整体工业 形成有力支撑。从所有制结构和外贸导向看，市场化主体展现出更强的弹 性。6 月私营企业和股份制企业工业增加值表现好于国有控股企业。 2025 年 6 月社会消费品零售总额虽然当月增速略显疲软，但从更中长 期视角看，消费修复趋势并未改变。上半年社会消费品零售总额同比增速较 一季度加快，消费对经济恢复的支撑作用依然稳固。具体来 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing population dynamics in China, highlighting a shift in migration patterns among graduates and migrant workers, with a notable trend of returning to hometowns and a preference for provincial capitals over major cities [1][10][15]. Group 1: Population Trends - In 2024, eight provinces in China experienced positive population growth, a decrease from eleven in 2023, while twenty provinces saw a total population decline of 3.04 million [1]. - The total number of migrant workers in China reached 29.973 million in 2024, an increase of 220,000 from the previous year, with a notable shift towards local mobility rather than interprovincial migration [10][14]. - The population in Chongqing decreased slightly, but mechanical growth exceeded 80,000 due to returning migrant workers [13]. Group 2: Graduate Employment Preferences - Many graduates prefer to stay in their hometowns for employment, citing a lack of competitive advantages in larger cities [4][19]. - The talent attraction report indicates that the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions continue to attract graduates, with Zhejiang and Guangdong leading in population growth [4][5]. - The number of provinces with positive population growth has been declining, with only eight provinces showing growth in 2024 compared to fifteen in 2021 [5]. Group 3: Provincial Capitals' Appeal - Provincial capitals are becoming increasingly popular due to better infrastructure, job opportunities, and lower living costs compared to first-tier cities [15][16]. - In 2024, 23 out of 25 provincial capitals reported positive population growth, contrasting with the declining populations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [16][18]. - The article notes that while first-tier cities still offer high salaries and job opportunities, the high cost of living and competition are driving some individuals towards second and third-tier cities or provincial capitals [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic conditions in Northeast China, highlighting its low cost of living and the underlying factors such as low wages, aging population, and the dominance of state-owned enterprises [3][8][29]. Group 1: Cost of Living - Northeast China is perceived as a "low-price paradise" for young people, with significantly lower food prices compared to other regions [4][6]. - Examples of low prices include a breakfast buffet for 10 yuan and a full meal for 80 yuan that can serve multiple people [7][8]. - The article emphasizes that the low prices are a result of low wage levels in the region [10][11]. Group 2: Wage Levels - In 2023, Harbin's individual income tax revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, while Zhuhai, with a much smaller population, contributed 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a stark difference in income levels [10]. - The average wages in Northeast China are among the lowest in the country, with rankings in the bottom tier for both public and private sectors [12][13]. - The high proportion of state-owned enterprises in the region contributes to the low wage levels, as these enterprises often have lower profitability [14][19]. Group 3: Aging Population and Labor Migration - Northeast China has experienced a declining birth rate and an aging population, with birth rates in 2023 being among the lowest in the country [30][31]. - The region faces significant labor outflow, with over 800,000 people leaving in 2024 alone, leading to reduced consumer demand and further economic challenges [32][33]. - The phenomenon of "bird migration" where many residents spend winters in warmer regions exacerbates the local economic situation [33][34]. Group 4: Economic Structure - The dominance of state-owned enterprises has created a reliance on large firms, limiting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises [19][27]. - The article notes that the economic structure in Northeast China is heavily skewed towards traditional industries, with slow growth in emerging sectors [27][28]. - Despite these challenges, there are signs of potential recovery, as the region's import and export activities have been increasing [35].

Q&A 2025 年下半年宏观经济及资产走势的展望是什么？ 2025 年下半年，美国经济将进入一个平稳运行的阶段。尽管在二季度时市场 曾担心十年期美债利率可能超过 5%，导致全球风险资产崩溃，但目前来看， 这种情形已经被过滤掉。特朗普政府的政策主要是虚张声势和要价组合，因此 美国经济仅会进行微调，财政支出小幅增加，同时关税也有所弥补。预计美国 平均关税税率将在 15%到 20%的区间内维持理性水平。此外，特朗普政府希 望通过触发联储降息来刺激经济，并引导高端制造业回流，但由于制造业空心 化和用工成本高，这一点具有高度不确定性。 非美资产在 2025 年上半年的表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，非美权益市场表现非常好，尤其是亚洲方向上的恒生指数、 恒生科技指数，以及欧洲方向上的德国股市。此外，南美洲如墨西哥、智利， 弘则策略 2025 年下半年宏观及资产走势核心问题展望 (25Q3)20250716 摘要 特朗普政府的贸易政策，虽有虚张声势成分，但实际关税预计维持在 15%-20%的理性区间，对美国经济影响有限。同时，试图通过联储降 息和制造业回流刺激经济，但效果不确定。 2025 年上半年，非美权益市场表现突出 ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the annual target of 5%[6] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.5%, showing slight stability despite external pressures[6] Production Insights - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with June's growth at 6.8%, up from 5.8% in May[13] - The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector was 74.0%, slightly down from 74.1% in Q1, indicating ongoing structural issues in certain industries[8] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half, but June saw a decline to 4.8%, marking a drop of 1.6 percentage points from May[25] - Service consumption maintained a high growth rate, with a 6.0% increase in June, although it showed signs of marginal weakening compared to May[20] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, with June's growth at just 0.4%, the first negative month-on-month change of the year[34] - Real estate investment faced significant challenges, with sales area and sales revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year in June, respectively[39] Risks and Challenges - The overall economic environment remains unbalanced, with low inflation and structural issues persisting, necessitating policy support to boost demand[10] - Trade uncertainties and potential domestic demand declines pose significant risks to economic stability[45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, the economy exceeded market expectations, but the effectiveness of domestic policies is weakening, and the full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. The bond market adjustment pressure is controllable, and there is a long - term bullish view on the bond market [1][2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Performance Differentiation - **Economic Data Overview**: In June, the industrial added - value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. The total retail sales of consumer goods (TRSCG) growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to June, the real estate development investment growth rate decreased to - 11.2%, and the infrastructure cumulative growth rate dropped to 8.9%. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3% [9][10] - **Production End**: In June, the industrial production was strong. The growth rate of the added - value of mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water was 6.1%, 7.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The service industry production growth rate was 6.0%, slightly down from the previous value. In the future, the high - speed growth of industrial production may not be sustainable, while the service industry production growth rate will remain at a high level [12][13][14] - **Demand End - Investment**: From January to June, the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry was 7.5%, and the investment growth rate of infrastructure continued to decline. The real estate development investment growth rate was - 11.2%, showing an accelerated decline. In the future, the decline direction of manufacturing investment is certain, the infrastructure growth rate has a decline pressure, and the real estate industry depends on policies to stop the decline [20][25][27] - **Demand End - Consumption**: In June, the TRSCG increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate declined again. It is expected that the TRSCG growth rate will decline slightly in the second half of the year [32][33] 3.2 Bond Market Outlook - In July, the bond market should be mainly oscillating. In the short - term, there may be some upward momentum, but it is difficult to break through the mid - June high. In the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. The strategy is to lay out long - term long positions on dips [3][36] - **Strategies**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, focus on the strategy of laying out long - term long positions on dips; the opportunity for futures positive arbitrage has significantly decreased; the curve strategy should be on the sidelines for the time being [38][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's economy remains stable in the second quarter, with manufacturing showing significant resilience and competitiveness, although structural issues such as supply-demand relationships and price-volume dynamics need to be balanced [1] - Despite external disturbances, China's economy has shown resilience in the second quarter, with growth rates exceeding annual targets; however, the demand side requires policy support [1] - The production side maintains a high growth rate, with strong performance in high-end manufacturing and export chains, while the real estate chain is relatively weak [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, there has been a slight decline in consumption and investment growth, with significant drops in June for restaurant consumption, infrastructure investment, and real estate sales [1] - Overall, issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low inflation persist, and it is expected that proactive policies will be implemented [1] - Future measures should focus on optimizing real estate policies, increasing infrastructure investment, and boosting consumer spending to expand domestic demand and promote a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [1] Group 3 - Additionally, there is a need to address overcapacity in the production sector through "anti-involution" strategies, reducing ineffective supply, and optimizing the economic structure [1]

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan (3.7% growth), the secondary industry was 239,050 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the tertiary industry was 390,314 billion yuan (5.5% growth) [2] - The GDP growth for Q1 was 5.4% and for Q2 was 5.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading at 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [3] - Emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots saw production increases of 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively, indicating enhanced technological innovation and a solidified position in the global supply chain [3] Service Sector Growth - The tertiary industry increased by 5.5%, with modern service sectors like information transmission, software, and IT services showing significant growth [3] - Despite the manufacturing purchasing manager index remaining in contraction territory, the business activity expectation index reached 52.0, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3] Consumer Insights - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.3%, aligning with GDP growth [4] - Retail sales in various categories showed significant growth, including food and beverage (12.3%), sports and entertainment goods (22.2%), and household appliances (30.7%) [4] Policy Impact - Supply-side growth is supported by the development of technology-intensive industries and targeted macro policies, such as tax incentives for high-end manufacturing and financing support for SMEs [4] - Consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and subsidies, have stimulated short-term consumption and pressured companies to accelerate technological upgrades, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption and industrial upgrades [5] Future Outlook - The consumption market is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing consumer policies [5] - The cycle of income growth, consumption upgrade, and industrial transformation is anticipated to drive high-quality economic development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of "anti-involution" and capacity reduction is a necessary requirement for the deep transformation of China's economy and optimization of its economic structure [1] Group 1: Key Points on Capacity Reduction - The previous round of capacity reduction was significantly effective due to four key points: the importance of capacity reduction being elevated to the level of people's livelihood and social stability, the central government clearly defining the scale of excess capacity, state-owned enterprises being the main force in capacity reduction, and ensuring employment and livelihood as a crucial bottom line [2] - The central government's continuous emphasis on "anti-involution" helps improve market expectations regarding the correction of supply surplus [3] - The short-term focus of "anti-involution" will primarily be on controlling new capacity while optimizing existing capacity, with limited market clearing intensity [4] Group 2: Industry Self-Regulation and Standards - Current optimization of existing capacity mainly relies on self-regulation at the industry association level, differing from the administrative measures of the previous round of capacity reduction [5] - Low-standard backward capacity is expected to exit first, with the definition of backward capacity evolving to include industry technical standards alongside energy consumption and environmental protection [6] - Industries with low capacity utilization and high energy consumption or environmental requirements are likely to push for the exit of backward capacity more quickly, while industries with lower capacity utilization but higher technical characteristics may require clearer definitions before proceeding [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant opportunities for private equity funds in the Greater Bay Area of China, driven by policy benefits, capital accumulation, and cross-border innovation, amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and evolving macroeconomic conditions [3][4][6]. Group 1: Global Macro Market Outlook - The U.S. tariff policies have been a major disruptor in the global macroeconomic landscape, impacting growth momentum [4]. - The recent "truce" in U.S.-China tariffs provides a temporary positive sentiment for the market and supply chains, but the sustainability of this impact depends on future agreements and China's economic rebalancing progress [6]. Group 2: Equity Market Dynamics - China's equity market is currently attracting international investors due to its appealing valuations, strengthened market confidence from policy expectations, structural upgrades, and global capital allocation needs [8]. - The MSCI China Index has returned to its five-year average valuation, and future performance will heavily rely on the recovery of earnings momentum [10]. - The "Eight Giants" of China still show significant valuation discounts compared to the "Seven Sisters" of U.S. stocks, indicating potential for capital inflow as trade tensions clarify and China's economic resilience is demonstrated [10]. Group 3: Fixed Income Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, high-yield bonds performed strongly while investment-grade bonds met expectations [11]. - As the U.S.-China interest rate differential narrows, Chinese dollar bonds may face pressure from widening credit spreads, potentially redirecting some "southbound funds" towards more attractive municipal bonds [13]. Group 4: Quantitative Research and Data Solutions - Alternative data is crucial for quantitative research, providing investors and analysts with forward-looking insights to navigate market fluctuations [14][16]. - Bloomberg's enterprise data solutions offer high-quality, globally covered data to assist private equity clients in making informed investment decisions [19]. Group 5: Insights from Industry Leaders - The integration of cutting-edge technology with solid industry research is essential for identifying value in the current market environment, particularly in the rapidly growing Greater Bay Area [22]. - Sustainable free cash flow is prioritized over short-term profit fluctuations, with current market conditions presenting opportunities for value investors to capitalize on undervalued companies [24].