Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak - biased", and the overall view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that although the manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand and a future loose monetary and credit environment that provides strong support for Treasury bond futures, due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak - biased | Oscillation consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation consolidation - **Core Logic**: The Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand, which is consistent with the weak performance of December's consumption, investment, and credit data. This means that the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the Wind All A index rose significantly with a monthly increase of 5.83% and an average daily trading volume of 3.05 trillion yuan, although it fell by 1.59% in the last week [3] - The CSI 1000 index increased by 8.68%, the CSI 500 by 12.12%, the CSI 300 by 1.65%, and the SSE 50 by 1.17%, driven mainly by the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the banking sector dragged down the overall index [3] - Domestic investor sentiment was high, with a monthly increase in financing balance of 197.1 billion yuan, while the issuance of stock funds decreased to 20 billion yuan, but mixed funds surged to 46.9 billion yuan, significantly above the monthly average of 13.4 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Policy Expectations - The current valuation levels of A-share hot topics are high, with the dynamic PE of the CSI 500 index exceeding two standard deviations above the past five years [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for a stable market, discouraging excessive speculation and market manipulation, indicating a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" [4][5] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have introduced measures to increase the minimum margin ratio for financing purchases of stocks [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In January, the bond market experienced a decline followed by a recovery, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) significantly increasing the net injection of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [6][7] - As of January 30, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.38%, 1.58%, 1.81%, and 2.29% respectively, with varying changes from the previous month [6] - The issuance of government bonds in January was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a net issuance of 1.181 trillion yuan, including 426.7 billion yuan of central government bonds and 754.3 billion yuan of local government bonds [8] Group 4: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3, below the expected 50.1, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [9][10] - The decline in PMI is attributed to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand, with labor-intensive industries experiencing a drop in exports and early returns of workers for the Spring Festival [10] - The price indices for raw materials and factory output both increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1 and the factory price index at 50.6, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits [11][12] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - In January, gold prices rose by 13.01% to 4,880.034 USD/oz, while silver surged by 19.12% to 85.259 USD/oz, with both metals experiencing extreme volatility [25][26] - The market dynamics were influenced by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the US dollar's credibility, and expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [25][26] - The sharp adjustment on January 30 was seen as a forced liquidation of overbought positions, but the long-term drivers for precious metals remain intact [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has long - term allocation value, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.83% has long - term investment value, though it may fluctuate in the short term due to high investor risk preference [12] - For A - shares, investors can follow the trend and focus on opportunities in four directions: satellite, commercial aerospace, and military industries; technology sectors like artificial intelligence, chips, etc.; bulk resource products such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and rare earths; and oil, gas, chemical, and petrochemical industries [13] - The US dollar may face continued depreciation pressure during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. The euro, pound, and yen will appreciate against the US dollar, while the RMB's appreciation against the US dollar may be relatively lower. Bulk commodities like gold, silver, copper, and oil may continue to rise in price [14] 3. Summary by Related Contents Stock Market Performance - US stock market: The three major US stock indexes declined. From 20260119 - 20260125, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 0.06%, - 0.35%, and - 0.53% respectively. The Hang Seng Index also declined by 0.36% during the same period [4] - A - share market: The large - cap stocks in A - shares declined while small - cap stocks rose, and most growth sectors increased. From 20260119 - 20260125, the Wind All - A Index changed by 1.81%. The CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 0.69%, - 0.62%, 4.34%, 2.89%, 4.04%, and 5.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange declined while growth stocks rose; in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, both blue - chip and growth stocks declined; the Beixin 50 Index increased by 2.60%. Among the 30 CITIC industries, 24 industries rose and 6 declined. Leading industries with a weekly increase of more than 5.0% included building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and real estate. Gold, photovoltaic, building materials, satellite, petrochemical, and aerospace ETFs led with a weekly increase of over 5% [5][6] Bond Market Performance - Chinese bonds: The yields of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds in China declined in the past week. From 20260119 - 20260125, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.12% compared to January 16, 2026. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1.26 BP to 1.8298% compared to January 16, 2026. Yields of bonds with a maturity of 3 years and above declined [7] - US bonds: US bond yields showed mixed performance. As of January 23, 2026, the 10 - year US bond yield remained unchanged at 4.24% compared to January 16, 2026. Yields of various maturities showed mixed performance from 20260119 - 20260125 [8] Exchange Rate and Commodity Performance - Exchange rates: The US dollar depreciated. From 20260119 - 20260125, the US dollar index declined by 1.88%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.87%, - 1.89%, and - 1.43% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.27% to 6.9487 as of January 23, 2026, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.07% to 6.9642 [9][10] - Commodities: Gold prices rose. From 20260119 - 20260125, the London gold spot price rose by 7.27% to $4946.25 per ounce; the COMEX gold futures price rose by 7.00% to $4936.00 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai gold spot price rose by 7.52% to 1110.3 yuan per gram, and the futures price rose by 7.71% to 1111.88 yuan per gram [11]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.090 | 112.230 | 112.170 | 112.180 | 0.080 | 0.07 | ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals and commodity futures rallied, suppressing the sentiment in the bond market. Coupled with the tight balance of funds, most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower [8]. - The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [9]. - The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure [11]. - The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Precious metals and commodity futures rallies suppressed the bond market sentiment, and most treasury bond futures closed slightly lower. The interest rates of major-term spot bonds in the interbank market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250016 dropped by 0.5bp to 1.825% as of 16:30 [8][9]. - **Funding Situation**: The tax period is coming to an end, but the funds remain in a tight balance. The supply of government bonds is large this week, and there is a cross-month pressure. However, the central bank is likely to provide support. The net repurchase of reverse repos in the open market today was 20.78 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate in the interbank market rose by 1.91bp to 1.417%, and the 7-day fund rate rose by 8bp to 1.5738%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped to 1.59% [10]. - **Conclusion**: January is a stage where the negative factors in the bond market are gradually materializing. The new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented on December 31, 2025, which may ease the short-term redemption and selling pressure. In addition, January will be a month with large supply under the background of front-loaded fiscal stimulus, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure. The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut in the short term is low. The market may enter a policy observation period again. However, the central bank officials also said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and the easing orientation remains unchanged. The stage with large supply-demand mismatch pressure in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of this month's economic data, there will be a data vacuum period of up to 1.5 months. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean that the market has entered a policy observation period. The expectation of easing may not significantly heat up before the Two Sessions in March. The short-term positive factors have been realized, but there are no obvious negative factors, so the market may remain volatile [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially issued the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China simultaneously issued the operating rules, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026. The new regulations focus on four aspects: accurate portrait, full-process supervision, linking with compensation, and information transparency, aiming at the pain points in the industry such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes". The new regulations specify a one-year transition period for the adjustment of the benchmarks of existing products [13]. - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Xi emphasized that in the current volatile international situation, China and Brazil, as important members of the Global South, should firmly stand on the right side of history, better safeguard the common interests of the two countries and the Global South, and jointly maintain the core position of the United Nations and international fairness and justice [13]. - Regarding the question of whether US President Donald Trump will visit China in April, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that there is currently no information to provide. In response to the US statement that it will "allow" China to buy Venezuelan oil but not at a specific price, Guo Jiakun said that Venezuela is a sovereign country and has the right to independently choose its cooperation partners [13]. - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said in an interview that while focusing on domestic growth stabilization, the People's Bank of China will continue to promote the reform of global financial governance and international financial cooperation in 2026, continue to promote the high-level opening up of the financial service industry and financial markets, and orderly promote the internationalization of the RMB [13]. - Shenzhen issued the management measures for affordable housing for sale, clarifying that the affordable housing for sale will be strictly managed in a closed manner, and it is prohibited to change it into commercial housing in any way. In addition, according to the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, since January 23, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing (including "residential and commercial buildings") has been adjusted to no less than 30% [14]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the policy combination path has become clearer: the central bank has lowered the cost of funds through various tools, and the fiscal department has "lightened the burden" on households and enterprises through interest subsidies, subsidies, and guarantees. Banks are more inclined to gradually reduce high-interest long-term deposit products and turn to lower-cost and more flexible-term liability sources; at the same time, they launch some structured products with seemingly higher returns but with certain conditions. Everyone faces three choices: continue to deposit, accept low returns and high security; allocate medium- and low-volatility assets such as treasury bonds and bond funds; or enter the equity and structured product markets [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides the trading data of treasury bond futures on January 26, including the settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of each contract [6]. - **Money Market**: The report provides the data of the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [28][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report provides the data of the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34].

Report Core View - The structural interest rate cut has been implemented, increasing the demand for medium - and long - term bonds. The abundant capital, stable liquidity, and moderate inflation support bond prices. However, the slight decline in Treasury bond yields implies weakening demand, and the rising US Treasury yields increase the pressure of capital outflows. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA60 support level and maintain a wait - and - see position [2] Data Presented 1. Yield and Interest Rate - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/12, the trends of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/12, and the trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/12 [3] 2. Futures Position and Transaction Volume - The trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures positions from 2015/12 to 2025/12 and the trends of their trading volumes from 2024/04 to 2025/12 are presented [5][6] 3. Futures Basis and Spread - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are shown. Also, the trends of the current - quarter minus next - quarter spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are presented. Additionally, the trends of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are provided [7][14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent monetary policy adjustments, particularly the structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, on the bond market and overall economic conditions [2][3][4] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, aim to lower the cost of funds for banks and direct financial resources towards small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green transformation [2][3] - The bond market is expected to experience a volatile environment due to various factors, including the influence of stock market movements, local government bond supply pressures, and marginal improvements in the economic fundamentals [4][5] Group 2 - The bond market is currently characterized by a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with policy expectations and liquidity support being the main positive influences [4][5] - There is a significant supply pressure in the bond market, particularly with large-scale government bond issuances and a high proportion of long-term local government bonds, which may negatively affect market sentiment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that while the bond market faces challenges, there are still opportunities for structured investments, particularly in medium to short-duration credit bonds combined with long-duration government bonds [7]

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved, with the long-end yields reaching a temporary low, as the 30Y active bond yield broke through 2.25%, down approximately 9 basis points from the monthly high [7][9] - Economic data for December was largely in line with expectations, having a limited impact on the bond market, while the equity market showed a slight slowdown [7][9] - The People's Bank of China announced an excess rollover of MLF, injecting liquidity into the market, which contributed to the overall downward trend in bond yields [7][9] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to continue to be front-loaded, with a higher proportion of long-term bonds [13][14] - In January 2026, local government bond issuance significantly exceeded the same period last year, with 773.4 billion yuan issued, an increase of 215.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and a high proportion of long-term bonds [28][29] - The demand for long-term bonds remains weak, with institutional enthusiasm for new bonds not particularly high, although there is still some demand for new issues [33][38] Group 3 - The financial institutions' asset allocation pressure has eased, indicating a gradual weakening of the "asset shortage" in the bond market, which corresponds to fluctuations in the 10Y government bond yield [46] - The attractiveness of equity assets remains high, and the new margin policy is not expected to have a significant disruptive effect on the market [47][49] - The overall performance of long-term pure bond funds has been significantly lower compared to equity-related funds, indicating a lack of profitability in the bond market [49][51]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.250 | 112.090 | 112.170 | 112.220 | -0.080 | -0.07 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of structural monetary policy measures, including a rate cut and increased loan quotas, to support enterprises in seizing opportunities and advancing their operations [1]. Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Measures - Starting January 19, the People's Bank of China reduced the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, leading to significant cost savings for companies [2]. - The new rates for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises are set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms, respectively, with a re-discount rate of 1.5% [2]. - The structural rate cut is expected to lower the financing costs for key sectors, enhancing the incentive for commercial banks to lend at lower rates [3]. Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - Companies like Changfei Advanced Semiconductor have benefited from lower loan rates, saving approximately 4.45 million yuan annually, which allows for accelerated project development [2]. - The total quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and transformation has been increased to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding support to consumption, elderly care, and carbon reduction initiatives [4]. - Financial institutions are actively engaging with enterprises to ensure that the benefits of these policies reach them effectively, with significant loan support already provided to tech companies [4]. Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises - A dedicated quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprise re-lending has been established, which is expected to further reduce loan rates for these businesses [6]. - The average loan rate for a private enterprise is projected to decrease to 3.2%, resulting in interest savings of approximately 25,000 yuan [6]. - Recent measures aim to enhance the financing environment for private enterprises, encouraging innovation and investment, thereby stimulating economic recovery [6].