场内ETF方面，截至2026年1月26日 13:02，上海金ETF(518600)上涨2.52%。拉长时间看，截至2026年1 月23日，上海金ETF近1周累计上涨7.80%。份额方面，截至2026年1月23日，上海金ETF最新规模达 63.51亿元，最新份额达5.75亿份，均创成立以来新高。从资金净流入方面来看，上海金ETF近4天获得 连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.95亿元净流入，合计"吸金"5.44亿元。 上海金ETF(518600)，场外联接(A类：008986；C类：008987)，该基金紧跟金价、支持T+0交易，可谓 黄金便捷投资利器；投资者可借道上海金ETF对冲金饰价格上涨。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 随着美欧关系愈发紧张，欧洲投资者在忧虑中寻求撤离美元资产。黄金保持着作为最后避险资产的角 色，成为美元的安全替代品，继续受到资金热捧。 高盛的最新报告已经将今年底黄金价格预测，由每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，因私人投资者及央行 的需求不断增强。高盛预计，今年各国央行每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，ETF所购买的 黄金规模也会增加，进一 ...

游戏规则改稀烂！以前大伙儿买美股、买美债，还能根据经济数据猜个大概走势；现在不行了，得猜特朗普的心思——他是不是要选举了？是不是又要搞政 策造势？这种没谱的事儿让所有人都心里发毛。机构不敢长期持有美元资产，只能赶紧甩；普通人也怕自己的钱缩水，得找个靠谱的地方放。这时候黄金就 成了香饽饽中的战斗饽饽，昨天我发文，说买黄金，你们还怪我马后炮，问题就现在也不晚了，别看一口气涨到快5000美元一盎司，创了历史新高！还得 高！因为黄金是唯一"不受总统管"的资产，不管特朗普咋折腾，黄金的价值就在那摆着，属于是比特朗普靠谱。现在各国央行也在疯狂囤黄金，中国、波兰 这些国家都在加仓，其实都是在想："美元不靠谱了，不得找点硬通货防身呗？" 说到底，这次市场大乱斗，本质就是"权力说了算"取代了"规则说了算"。现在美联储成了总统的"工具人"，美元自然没人信了。所以看到美股美债狂甩，是 大伙儿在跑路；黄金疯涨，是大伙儿在躲坑。短期来看，下周美联储开会可能还会装装样子"保持中立"，但实际上早就被特朗普攥得死死的；长期来说，只 要美联储不能自己做主，美元资产就会一直被抛售，黄金也会一直吃香。 这种掌控带来的直接后果，就是大伙儿再也不信美 ...

【宏观】美元资产的"双击时刻" 美元资产迎来"双击时刻"： 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁，以及高市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来的日债抛售，使得美元资产迎来信用破裂和流 动性抽离的"双击时刻"。 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁后，美元信用破裂交易重现。 特朗普把格陵兰议题抬到"国家安全与主权"的高度，同时对欧洲盟友抛出加征关税的威 胁，美股、债、汇一度出现三杀，美元与美债再次走出"死亡交叉"，黄金、白银避险资产走强，加密货币明显承压。 高市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来的一轮日债抛售，市场重燃套息交易反转的担忧。 日本长端国债在财政与供需担忧下出现近似"特拉斯时刻"的抛售潮， 市场甚至称之为"高市时刻"。日元资产作为全球套息交易的重要负债端，日债利率快速大幅上行必然导致融资套利链条面临挤压，从而全球风险资产被迫降杠 杆，同时也会影响美债等核心市场的流动性。 美国"K型经济"背景下，美元资产的回撤极易引发特朗普在决策上的反转（"TACO"）。 在达沃斯论坛上，特朗普释放出与欧洲达成合作框架的说法，并撤销 关税威胁，欧洲议会随后宣称"重启对欧美贸易协议的表决程序"。美股随后反弹至周初点位，但黄金与白银等避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "double whammy" moment for dollar assets, triggered by Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds, resulting in credit breakdown and liquidity withdrawal for dollar assets [2][8]. Group 1: Dollar Assets and Market Reactions - Trump's remarks on Greenland elevated the issue to a matter of "national security and sovereignty," coupled with tariff threats against European allies, causing a significant market reaction where U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies faced a triple hit, leading to a "death cross" between the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [2][8]. - The sell-off in Japanese bonds, particularly the long-term bonds, was described as a "High City Moment," with the 30-year bond yield rising by 26 basis points to 3.875% and the 40-year bond yield increasing by 27 basis points to 4.215% [10]. Group 2: Economic Data and Consumer Confidence - The U.S. job market remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 260,000, indicating seasonal alignment, but the high number of continuing claims suggests difficulties for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4][17]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January showed a slight rebound to 56.4 from a previous 54, although it remains at historically low levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [5][19]. - Mortgage applications in the U.S. showed a slight decline, with the purchase index at 78.2 (previously 79.9) and the refinancing index at 319.4 (previously 340.9), indicating a mixed recovery in housing market activity [4][18].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of global allocation wealth management products is accelerating, with a notable increase in issuance and diversification of asset preferences among financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3][16]. Group 1: Product Issuance and Structure - In early 2026, multiple wealth management companies, including Ningyin Wealth Management and Bank of China Wealth Management, launched new global allocation themed products, primarily focusing on pure debt and "fixed income+" products rated R1 and R2 [2][15]. - From December 2025 to January 8, 2026, over 10 banks and wealth management companies issued nearly 50 global allocation themed products, with assets linked to currencies such as USD, JPY, EUR, and HKD, indicating a more diversified allocation preference [2][15]. - The number of newly issued global allocation wealth management products reached 624 in 2025, with 87 launched between November 1, 2025, and January 6, 2026 [3][17]. Group 2: Performance and Yield - The performance benchmarks for newly issued global allocation wealth management products in the second half of 2025 generally ranged from 3% to 4%, with many products launched since December 2025 having benchmarks between 3.2% and 3.65% [3][17]. - The average annualized yield of global allocation wealth management products is reported to be 3.357%, with recent products showing yields concentrated between 2.5% and 4.5% [21][22]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Preferences - Dollar-denominated assets remain the primary focus of global allocation wealth management products, with a significant emphasis on U.S. Treasury bonds and leading technology stocks [4][18]. - There is an increasing interest in emerging market equity assets and gold, aimed at capturing diverse economic growth opportunities and hedging against geopolitical risks and currency depreciation [7][20]. - The trend towards diversified asset allocation is driven by the need to enhance returns and mitigate risks in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions responding to the tightening supply of quality fixed-income assets [11][24]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The current low-interest-rate environment has led to a narrowing of returns from traditional fixed-income assets, prompting investors to seek overseas assets as a means to enhance yields [21][24]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has made dollar-denominated products attractive, with average yields for these products ranging from 3% to 3.5% compared to 2% to 2.5% for RMB-denominated products [19][20]. - The demand for diversified asset allocation is increasing among high-net-worth individuals, reflecting a shift in investment preferences from solely domestic assets to a more global and diversified approach [12][24].

Core Insights - The trend of global allocation in wealth management products is accelerating, with multiple companies launching new products focused on global asset allocation, primarily in fixed income and "fixed income plus" categories [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Trends - In the early 2026, several wealth management companies, including Ningyin Wealth and Bank of China Wealth, have launched nearly 50 global allocation-themed products, indicating a significant increase in interest [1][2] - The new products are primarily linked to various currencies such as USD, JPY, EUR, and HKD, showcasing a diversified asset preference [1] - The average annualized return for global allocation wealth management products has been reported at 3.357%, with many products achieving returns between 2.5% and 4.5% [7][9] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - The current global allocation products are categorized into three main types: pure fixed income products centered on USD bonds, "fixed income plus" strategies that combine fixed income with equities or alternative assets, and index or structured products linked to multiple markets [3][4] - USD assets remain the dominant focus, with a significant allocation towards US Treasury bonds and leading technology stocks, while also gradually including assets from Japan, Europe, and gold [3][4][5] - The investment strategy is driven by the need for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment, with wealth management firms increasingly looking to diversify their asset allocations to enhance returns and mitigate risks [5][9][10] Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to further enhance the attractiveness of USD assets, with a current yield of over 4% on 10-year US Treasury bonds compared to lower yields in domestic markets [4][5] - The shift towards global asset allocation is a response to the tightening supply of quality fixed income assets in the domestic market, prompting institutions to seek cross-regional growth opportunities [9][10] - As investor demand for diversified asset allocation grows, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, wealth management firms are innovating their product offerings to meet these evolving needs [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic divergence between China and the US became more apparent. The US labor market continued to cool, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The US stock market corrected at the end of the year. In contrast, China's economy remained stable, with the manufacturing PMI rising slightly and the technology sector performing strongly. The RMB exchange rate and asset prices showed positive resonance [1]. - The attractiveness of US dollar assets has been continuously weakening. The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased. The RMB pricing range has shifted downwards, and the RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term [3]. - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Economic Divergence between China and the US**: In December, the US labor market cooled, with the November unemployment rate at 4.6% and non - farm payroll growth slowing. The government shutdown and tariff policies affected enterprises, leading to a year - end correction in the US stock market. In China, the economy was stable, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly in December, the technology sector was strong, and A - share risk appetite improved [1]. - **Weakening of US Dollar Assets**: The short - end interest rate in the US has been declining, and the market has priced in a faster rate - cut path in 2026. Fiscal expansion and US Treasury supply pressure limit the decline in long - term yields. The risk - return ratio of US dollar assets has decreased, and cross - border capital allocation is being adjusted [2]. - **Changes in Foreign Exchange Supply**: In 2025, China's foreign trade performance exceeded expectations. In November, exports grew by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew by about 1.9% year - on - year. The 12 - month rolling trade surplus was close to $1.2 trillion. The surplus expansion changed the domestic foreign exchange structure, with more foreign exchange remaining in the banking and corporate sectors [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate Breakthrough**: At the end of December, the on - shore and off - shore RMB both broke through the 7.00 mark, breaking the 7.0 - 7.3 range that had lasted for more than a year. The RMB is likely to be strong, have low volatility, and its center of gravity will gradually move down in the short term, and 7.00 is becoming a new operating center [3]. Strategy - In the context of a weak US dollar and changes in the domestic foreign exchange structure, the RMB will maintain a strong and low - volatility pattern in the short term, and the area around 7.00 will gradually become an important operating range [4]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.59% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.06% [1][11] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity futures, with coking coal futures down by 0.76% and iron ore futures up by 2.00% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.36% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is equities > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a positive outlook on A-shares and stable bond yields [2][4] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is weakening, prompting international capital to seek alternatives, with RMB assets being a top choice due to their stability and growth potential [2][4] - The report anticipates that commodity prices will be influenced by supply pressures in oil and demand dynamics in cyclical goods, while agricultural products will be affected by supply factors [2][4] Key Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, returning to the expansion zone [18] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress will convene on March 4, 2026, which may influence economic policies [18][19] Market Performance Insights - The report details a significant decline in the real estate market, with a notable drop in transaction volumes for new homes in major cities, indicating potential market stabilization due to recent policy changes [36][41] - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showing negative growth for four consecutive weeks [36][41] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds has risen to 1.85%, with a noted increase in the yield of ten-year policy bank bonds to 2.00% [46] - The report highlights a significant rise in yields for low-rated credit bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment [46]

Group 1 - Canada sold $56.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in October 2025, a more aggressive move than China's $11.8 billion reduction, indicating a significant shift in ally dynamics [1] - The total U.S. national debt has surged to $37 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every five months, a record-breaking pace [3] - The liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market has declined, with turnover rates dropping from 12.6% in 2007 to 3.2% in 2024, leading to increased price volatility during market disruptions [4] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed in July 2025 is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the U.S. government's debt repayment capacity [6] - The U.S. federal government is facing a fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, creating a vicious cycle of increasing debt and interest payments [7] - Political pressure from the Trump administration to influence the Federal Reserve's independence poses risks to the credibility of the U.S. dollar and investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [9] Group 3 - The erosion of the U.S. Treasury's "safety premium" is exacerbated by actions such as financial sanctions and proposals to alter the structure of U.S. debt, leading to increased market concerns [11] - Global capital is reassessing the value of dollar assets, with countries like China diversifying their reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and Canada aggressively selling them [12] - Asian countries, as the largest official holders of U.S. Treasuries, are considering adjustments to their foreign exchange reserve structures to reduce reliance on U.S. debt and strengthen regional financial cooperation [14]

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. job market shows signs of weakness with November 2025 unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021[10] - November 2025 CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflation concerns[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, driven by economic data and political pressures[21] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy Outlook - Japan's core CPI in November 2025 was 3.0%, remaining above the central bank's 2% target for 44 consecutive months[30] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates 1-2 times in 2026, each by 25 basis points, reflecting a cautious approach due to structural constraints[31] - Japan's government debt remains the highest globally, limiting the potential for significant rate increases[35] Group 3: Impact of Global Liquidity Changes - The liquidity premium is diminishing, shifting asset pricing back to fundamentals, particularly affecting U.S. equities and bonds[42] - Chinese assets are benefiting from external liquidity easing and internal profit cycles, with a focus on PPI recovery driving profit elasticity[46] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to attract capital due to their low valuation and high dividend yield, with performance increasingly dependent on domestic fundamentals[54]