1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability in the market) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight, the US PPI was lower than expected, and news that Trump intended to fire Fed Chairman Powell caused the US dollar assets to decline and international gold prices to rise. However, after Trump's denial, the market returned to stability. Driven by events, precious metals are sensitive. There is still room for negotiations before the deadline of the US tariff policy, and risk sentiment may fluctuate. Precious metals will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales data tonight [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said that the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been performing well [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7% [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity decreased slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious [2]. 3.2 Tariff Policies - Canada will tighten steel quotas for some foreign countries [2]. - Trump will send general tariff rate notices to more than 150 small countries and may impose a 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the U.S. and China, including aspects of debt, currency, and market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. government is facing a $4 trillion debt ceiling, which may lead to increased public spending and dissatisfaction among stakeholders regarding tax cuts for businesses and individuals [1] 2. The U.S. dollar index is currently at 90.2, with predictions of further decline due to ongoing supply chain issues and potential adjustments to the debt ceiling [2] 3. China has strategically reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from a peak of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2018 to around $700 billion, indicating a shift in its financial strategy post-trade war [3] 4. China's economic policies have shifted since September 2022, focusing on fiscal expansion and stabilizing the economy, contrasting with previous periods of policy uncertainty [4] 5. The stability of the Chinese stock market is noted, with government bonds trading around 1.7% and stock indices fluctuating around 3.3%, reflecting a cautious but stable economic outlook [5] 6. The current low price levels in China may facilitate monetary easing, which could help stimulate economic recovery, while the U.S. faces challenges in this regard [6] 7. China's stock market is characterized by a relatively high debt-to-GDP ratio compared to other major economies, indicating a unique financial position [7] 8. The potential for a technological revolution is highlighted, with both the U.S. and China expected to leverage their respective strengths in R&D and market application over the next decade [8] 9. The outlook for the next 6 to 12 months suggests a continuation of the current bull market, with limited upward movement in indices due to strategic market stabilization efforts [9] 10. Companies are increasingly focused on cash management and financial stability, with a notable emphasis on sectors such as transportation and infrastructure [10] 11. The report concludes with a focus on the advantages of Chinese companies in terms of market timing and strategic positioning amid global risks [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay between U.S. and Chinese economic policies and their implications for global markets, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [2][3][4][5][6][8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on strategic resources like rare earth elements and the implications for the financial markets. Core Points and Arguments - President Trump's recent comments on China's negotiation stance indicate significant difficulties in reaching a trade agreement, which has led to a slight pullback in U.S. stock index futures [1] - The U.S. may be hesitant to take strong actions against China due to potential negative impacts on its own dollar assets, suggesting that aggressive measures could backfire [2] - The U.S. Treasury's intervention in the market reflects underlying troubles, with short-term U.S. Treasury bonds receiving some support, while medium to long-term bonds face considerable pressure [3] - Internal divisions within the U.S. Congress regarding certain policies are highlighted, with notable opposition from influential figures like Elon Musk, indicating intense internal conflicts [4] - The discussion includes the "see-saw effect" of dollar assets, with gold and strategic resources like rare earths gaining attention amid market fluctuations [5] - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, shows slight upward movement, while overall market activity remains subdued, as indicated by trading volumes in the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets [6] - There are expectations for potential central bank interventions to support market liquidity, although this optimism may be overly optimistic given the current pressures in the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment suggests a need to remain patient and vigilant for better investment opportunities in strategic resources and gold amidst rapid market changes [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of rare earth elements as a key topic in U.S.-China tensions emphasizes their strategic importance in the current geopolitical landscape [5] - The potential for a liquidity crisis in the bond market is noted, which could have broader implications for financial stability [7] - The overall market environment is characterized by rapid shifts in focus and wealth effects, necessitating a strategic approach to investment opportunities [8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. financial market** and its implications for both domestic and international markets, particularly focusing on the **debt issues** and **economic policies** of the U.S. government [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Market Concerns**: There is an increasing sense of doubt regarding the U.S. stock market, which may face a significant downward adjustment in the near future. This is highlighted by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating from AAA, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets [1][4]. 2. **Debt Management Strategies**: The U.S. government is exploring various strategies to manage its debt, including potential new taxes such as an international remittance tax. These measures aim to alleviate the financial strain caused by excessive spending [2][4]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: There are signs of economic deterioration, with consumer sentiment and various indices showing downward trends. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing trade tensions and tax adjustments [3][4]. 4. **Investment Sentiment**: Investors are strategically reducing their holdings in U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, due to short-term financial issues. While U.S. assets may have long-term potential, the current financial landscape poses significant risks [5][11]. 5. **Gold Market Dynamics**: The price of gold has seen a significant drop to $3,200 per ounce, leading to speculation about whether the bull market for gold has ended. However, there are indications that this may present a strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors [6][8]. 6. **Domestic Market Outlook**: The domestic market is described as lackluster, with few standout sectors. The port and shipping sector, linked to tariffs, is currently experiencing high demand, but overall market excitement is low [9][10]. 7. **Macroeconomic Data**: Upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including consumer and real estate metrics, are expected to show little improvement, contributing to a subdued market sentiment [10][11]. Other Important Insights - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly, reaching levels not seen since late 2024, which raises concerns about potential corrections if the market faces further challenges [5][11]. - The Hong Kong market is also experiencing a similar lack of momentum, with limited upward potential despite being in a slightly better position than the domestic market [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the U.S. market's challenges, investment strategies, and the overall economic outlook.

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The current trading volume in the market is a critical indicator reflecting market sentiment, with a significant drop noted in Hong Kong compared to mainland markets, indicating a more severe liquidity issue in Hong Kong [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is declining, with the three major indices experiencing slight declines under pressure [1] Key Points and Arguments - The trading volume in Hong Kong has shown a more pronounced contraction, suggesting deeper issues beyond simple market fluctuations, with risks highlighted previously [1] - The recent downturn in the Hong Kong market has been attributed to a lack of recovery in investor enthusiasm, particularly as the market was previously buoyed by inflows from mainland investors [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden rebound, attributed to some progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe, but skepticism remains regarding the sustainability of this recovery [3] - The U.S. economic policies under the current administration are described as conflicting, with internal and external pressures creating a challenging environment for financial markets [4][5] - The U.S. government is facing significant fiscal challenges, with efforts to cut unnecessary spending being undermined by political dynamics, leading to a precarious financial situation [5] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels and the potential for a loss of confidence in U.S. assets, particularly if credit ratings are downgraded [6] - The technology sector in the U.S. stock market appears unaffected by broader market issues, with the Nasdaq index nearing previous highs, raising concerns about market stability [7] - The potential for increased fiscal pressure in the U.S. could lead to further challenges for asset prices, with questions about investor willingness to buy at current levels [8] Other Important Insights - The current optimism in the U.S. dollar assets may be overly optimistic given the underlying issues facing the financial markets, particularly as resistance levels are approached [8] - Future market volatility is anticipated, with significant uncertainties that could impact upward support levels [9]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury and Gold Outlook - U.S. Treasuries have lost their value storage function, with gold set to replace them as the primary global currency [1] - The report predicts that the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield will have a lower bound of 4.35%, with a target yield of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, suggesting avoidance of Treasuries [1][39] - The target price for gold is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential rise to $4,400 per ounce if gold's market value matches that of U.S. Treasuries [1][70] Group 2: Long-term Bull Market in U.S. Stocks - The long-term bull market in U.S. stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the U.S. current account deficit [2] - U.S. companies have been in a long-term net buyback state since the 1980s, reducing the supply of stocks and contributing to rising prices [2] - Fiscal expansion leads to more government orders, higher inflation, and increased profit margins, benefiting U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Short-term Economic Risks - The report highlights risks to short-term economic growth, with tariffs impacting consumer purchasing power and a decline in consumer credit indicating potential recession [3] - The target price for the S&P 500 is estimated to be between 4,300 and 5,600 points by the second half of 2025, leading to a downgrade of the investment rating for U.S. stocks to "underperform" [3][48] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Sector Selection - The report suggests focusing on quality factors and defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples during the upcoming risk-off phase [4] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends sectors like Philadelphia Semiconductor, Nasdaq 100, and small-cap growth stocks [4]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in the Middle East occurred earlier than expected, with Iran accepting the ceasefire without effective retaliation, leading to a formal announcement by President Trump [3] - The performance of dollar assets aligned with market expectations, with the stock market rebounding and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rising nearly 1% [3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds also showed a significant rebound, indicating a key recovery signal, while the dollar index experienced a slight decline [3] Group 2 - Following the stock market close, a potential positive development emerged for dollar assets as the Federal Reserve indicated a more dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts in July [3] - The new regulatory vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, previously a hawkish figure, expressed support for starting rate cuts next month, boosting market sentiment [3] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the market rally, as solid support for further gains in dollar assets, particularly U.S. stocks, remains uncertain [4]

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要： —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变，对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期，上调通胀预期，其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%，核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或仍为两次，2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕，同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策，或有利于美元资产，尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现，除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 ...