Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in the Middle East occurred earlier than expected, with Iran accepting the ceasefire without effective retaliation, leading to a formal announcement by President Trump [3] - The performance of dollar assets aligned with market expectations, with the stock market rebounding and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rising nearly 1% [3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds also showed a significant rebound, indicating a key recovery signal, while the dollar index experienced a slight decline [3] Group 2 - Following the stock market close, a potential positive development emerged for dollar assets as the Federal Reserve indicated a more dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts in July [3] - The new regulatory vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, previously a hawkish figure, expressed support for starting rate cuts next month, boosting market sentiment [3] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the market rally, as solid support for further gains in dollar assets, particularly U.S. stocks, remains uncertain [4]

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 潜在通胀上行风险的政策约束加强——6 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 4 期 ❖ 投资摘要： —Sir Tom Stoppard 1. 美联储 6 月份议息会议宣布维持利率不变，对于经济前景不确定性的评估 倾向更加积极的预期。 2. 美联储下调美国经济增长预期，上调通胀预期，其中 2025 年经济增长预期 值下调 0.3%至 1.4%，核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.3%至 3.1%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或仍为两次，2026 年和 2027 年降息次 数均从 2 次降至 1 次。 4. 美联储对于高关税向通胀水平的传导保持高度警惕，同时对于货币政策限 制性的表述偏弱。 5. 下半年美国出台潜在关税对冲政策，或有利于美元资产，尤其是美股追赶 其他市场表现，除中国以外的新兴市场的企业盈利和股票估值压力或再度加 大。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 ...

惠誉旗下研究机构BMI预计大幅抛售美元资产的空间有限 智通财经6月16日电，惠誉解决方案旗下的研究机构BMI预计，未来几个月，美元指数可能在95到100之 间波动。BMI首席经济学家Cedric Chehab在一份报告中写道："我们认为，关于贸易相关波动的最坏时 期已经过去，这应有助于减轻美元的下行压力"。今年1月美元被高估约15%，而目前仅被高估约5%， 多头投机仓位也已"大幅回落"。"从逆势的角度来看，这意味着美元进一步大幅下跌的空间有限"。 ...

美股不是华尔街专利 大家好 我是美投君 你们的美股探路者 两个月前 美股的闪崩还历历在目 在川普的关税打榜下 美国金融市场遭遇了罕见的股市 债市惠市三杀的局面 如今两个月过去了 美股快速爬升 已经恢复如初 战士也早已稳定了下来 但诡异的是 美元却不仅没有恢复 反而一路走低 如今美元指数也重错了10% 创下了自22年以来的新堤 有人说这是美元霸权覆灭的前兆 还有人说 这是普通人最好的错配机会 那么答案究竟是如何呢 可以说 美元和我们每个人都息息相关 不仅是投资 也影响着我们每个人的生活 那么美元究竟是怎么了 是否会继续这样贬值下去呢 我们手里的美元资产又该怎么办 今天这期视频 美特军就来跟各位看官好好聊聊 美元 在视频开始前 美头军 先跟各位看官宣布一个好消息 618美头军7全客优惠活动 已经在美头官网上线了 本次618活动会限量发放618张优惠券 最高立减200美元 送完为止 如果你对于7全交易感兴趣 那千万别错过本次机会 美特军齐全课最大的特点 是专业且易懂 目的是帮助咱各位投资者 用齐全自如的应对各种市场环境 真正做到安心投资 课程针对不同基础的投资者 设计了不同等级的课程 从基础知识到实际应用 再到交易 ...

西太平洋银行称，美国贸易法院叫停特朗普关税加剧混乱局面，这是"反复无常之处，对美元资产没有 好处"。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the shift in U.S. Treasury bond ownership, with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China reduces its stake, moving from the second to the third largest holder of U.S. debt [1][3] - Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $4.9 billion in March, totaling $1,130.8 billion, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder [1] - China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion to $765.4 billion, marking its first reduction of the year, which reflects a strategic shift amid rising U.S. debt yields [1][3] Group 2 - The article suggests that Japan and the UK are increasing their U.S. Treasury holdings to curry favor with the U.S., while China is diversifying its assets by increasing gold reserves, indicating a lack of trust in U.S.-China relations [1][5] - China's strategy of reducing long-term U.S. debt while increasing short-term holdings is seen as a move to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt, especially given the volatile nature of the U.S. bond market [3][5] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is viewed as a response to U.S. tariff policies, potentially impacting U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs, and may prompt other countries to reassess their own U.S. debt strategies [5][7] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of China's actions on the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that a significant sell-off could undermine confidence in U.S. assets and affect the U.S. financial system [5][7] - Trump's recent overtures towards China, including a willingness to meet with Chinese leaders, are interpreted as attempts to stabilize U.S. Treasury demand ahead of a significant $6.5 trillion in maturing debt [7] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff disputes are influencing China's decisions regarding U.S. debt, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade policy and financial markets [5][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant decline in dollar assets and the potential dangers and opportunities it presents [3][4] - The domestic market is experiencing rapid rotations among different concepts and hotspots, leading to a lack of substantial trading opportunities [3] - The overall index has shown stagnation, with notable fluctuations in small-cap stocks and merger and acquisition concepts [3] Group 2 - Precious metals have shown a slight increase, becoming a relatively profitable sector amid the chaotic market conditions [3] - The upward momentum in precious metals is attributed to the lack of other opportunities in the domestic market and the downward adjustment of dollar assets [3] - The U.S. stock and bond markets experienced significant adjustments, with the Nasdaq index falling by 1.4% and the Dow Jones index declining by nearly 2% [4]

Group 1 - In March, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing the total to $765.4 billion, marking the first time in over 20 years that the UK surpassed China as the second-largest foreign holder of US debt with $779.3 billion [1] - The reduction in China's holdings is seen as a strategy to decrease reliance on dollar assets amid the ongoing US-China trade tensions, with potential further reductions expected in April [3] - The US Treasury bond market experienced significant volatility in April and May, with yields on 30-year bonds nearing 5% and 10-year bonds surpassing 4.5%, indicating a sell-off in the market [5] Group 2 - The unusual sell-off in April raised concerns about global confidence in dollar assets, which could threaten the foundation of US financial dominance [6] - President Trump expressed a willingness to visit China to discuss diplomatic and economic issues, potentially indicating a desire to stabilize financial markets and address US debt concerns [8]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 首先来看一条新闻：穆迪这家美国评级公司对美国政府的主权信用评级进行了下调。虽然评级仍然处于 优等水平，但已经告别了最高级别的3A等级。这背后反映出的是对美国资产价值的深深疑虑：是否应 该给美国资产一个较高的评分？这一评级下调会间接导致许多资金在配置美元资产时面临加仓还是减仓 的抉择。评级下降肯定是一个负面的考虑因素。而这一评级下调的导火索，正是大家对美国债务问题的 担忧。 这个问题由来已久，这颗深水炸弹一直没有引爆，但其规模还在不断扩大，这种隐忧也会引发一系列连 锁反应。要知道，这件事情已经呼应了前几周大家看到的奇怪现象：美元资产出现"三杀"，即股、债同 时下跌。背后的原因正是美元债务问题迟迟得不到解决。 这件事情不仅外界清楚，美国决策层也深感忧虑。大家看到特朗普上台后，一个重要政策目标就是解决 或控制债务问题，以缓解美国"花钱比赚得多、入不敷出"的状况。比如，前段时间大幅调整关税，目的 之一就是增加收入，当然也有其他目的。另外，这两天大家还看到美国政府可能正在酝酿加征一种名 为"国际汇款税"的新税种。比如，许多在美国打工的人往自己国家汇钱，政府打算从中抽取5%作为汇 ...