Group 1 - Edouard de Langlade, a seasoned macro hedge fund manager, is experiencing one of the best trading periods in his 20-year career, despite finding shorting U.S. stocks to be "painful" [1] - His EDL Global Opportunities strategy, managing $1.6 billion, gained 7.3% last month amid market volatility triggered by President Trump's tariff war, achieving a historical monthly gain of over 14% [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has returned 31%, positioning it as one of the best-performing funds of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, removing its top rating, which has led to 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, adding pressure to the market [2] - Many hedge funds are facing challenges due to stock declines, rising bond yields, and volatility, while de Langlade's fund has achieved excess returns [2] - Foreign investors are reportedly unwilling to fund the U.S. government at current prices, indicating a need for significant adjustments in fiscal policy to attract them back [2]

摩根大通：中美贸易关系取得进展后美元或落后美股 金十数据5月13日讯，摩根大通分析师在一份报告中说，在中美同意暂时降低关税后，美元可能会落后 于美国股市。关税减免降低了美国经济衰退的可能性，但也有利于全球经济增长。美国的经济增长可能 仍将落后于世界其他地区。美元走软的理由依然存在，尽管力度有所减弱。从中期来看，有关美国例外 主义持续到何种程度的信号将与美元更为相关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is driven by investor sentiment influenced by Trump's policies, leading to increased buying of non-US assets and a significant decline in the dollar's value [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.5%, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 7% due to stagnant trade agreement progress and disappointing manufacturing activity data [1]. - JPMorgan forecasts a second round of dollar weakness, indicating a cyclical shift that may last several quarters [2]. - Speculative traders have increased their bearish bets on the dollar, with net short positions reaching a new high since September 2024 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Other Currencies - The euro is expected to benefit significantly from the dollar's weakness, with a year-to-date increase of over 10% against the dollar, prompting JPMorgan to raise its year-end euro forecast from 1.14 to 1.20 [5]. - The British pound has strengthened due to capital outflows from US assets, with expectations of it reaching 1.39 USD within 12 months, despite potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5]. - The strengthening of the pound may also be linked to improving UK-EU economic relations, with upcoming events potentially leading to a reassessment of post-Brexit ties [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.2%, as traders await further guidance from upcoming labor market reports [4]. - The tightening of US immigration and fiscal policies is seen as detrimental to the "American exceptionalism" theme that has supported markets in recent years [4].

动荡的每日新闻 帕斯夸里耶洛指出，日常新闻流仍然高度波动，市场对中美关系和美联储政策的信号反应强烈。他表 示，最近的事态发展处于"二阶导数"阶段，贸易政策倾向鹰派，但避免了极端结果。 在一片嘈杂声中，技术指标已变得更加积极。"两个月来首次，技术因素净转为正面，"他写道，并指出 无论是自主交易基金还是系统基金在上周转向买入之前都"基本上已清仓"。 纯多头投资者的持续抛售压力似乎也已暂停，因为他们买入了英伟达和Meta Platforms等大型科技公司 的股票。 不过，在基本面方面，帕斯夸里耶洛表示他仍然保持谨慎："目前，市场参与者的主要工作是权衡局势 降级的概率与经济衰退的概率。除非在关税问题上全面缓和，否则还需要一段时间才能对美国经济增长 的真实轨迹有信心。" 智通财经APP注意到，截至4月25日当周，美国股市在大盘科技股熟悉的涨势推动下大幅走高。但高盛 对冲基金业务全球主管托尼•帕斯夸里耶洛表示，投资者应准备好迎接持续的波动，因为市场正处于 2025年交易区间的正中间。 帕斯夸里耶洛在4月26日的一份客户报告中写道，标准普尔500指数目前较特朗普总统所称"解放日"之后 的抛售完全回撤不到3%，以VIX指数衡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment of American exceptionalism is fading, leading to a preference for European assets over American ones, which benefits the euro [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investor Behavior** - Investors are avoiding American assets due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs and are favoring European assets instead [1] - **Euro Performance** - The euro's downside potential is limited, and after briefly surpassing the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, it has experienced a slight pullback [1] - The pullback in the euro is viewed as an opportunity to strengthen long positions in the euro [1] - **Future Projections** - The next target for euro bulls is set at 1.20 [1]

截至4月16日的一周内，美国股票基金流出57亿美元资金，欧洲股票基金流入60亿美元。显示美元强弱 的"美元指数"跌破100，处在3年来的最低水平。美元的强大抛售压力凸显出来。投资资金"在美国一极 集中"的状况正在扭转…… 在4月18日的纽约外汇市场，日元汇率以1美元兑142日元区间前半结束交易。4月17日，曾一度贬值至1 美元兑143日元区间前半，但美元贬值的趋势未变，日元兑美元再次走高。本周初的4月21日以141日元 区间后半开盘。 华尔街似乎也意识到了美元抛售压力。例如，美国金融巨头花旗集团4月17日发布的全球资产配置报 告。在解释对客户的投资推荐内容时，强调了对美元的悲观态度。花旗的分析团队预测称，由于美国资 产的结构性资金外流，"美元将继续下跌"。 投资者意识到"美国例外主义"的终结 作为显示美元抛售压力之大的关键词，"扭转（投资资金在）美国一极集中"正在浮出水面。起因是美国 总统特朗普的关税政策和美国经济恶化隐忧。 在新冠疫情以后，投资资金不断流入世界经济中增长最为强劲的美国。美国英伟达等"七巨 头"（Magnificent 7）成为火车头，美国占据了全球股票总市值的一半。作为与其他国家不同的美国独 ...

关于美股下跌对其他地区股票市场的影响，有机构总结自1990年代以来，当美股跌幅超过10%时，亚洲 股市也会出现一定程度的下跌。另有研报提及，不同国家股市之间的相关性已降至自1990年代以来的最 低水平，一个核心驱动因素在于，投资者在2025年前对美股配置极度乐观，但年初至今这种"美国例外 主义"的预期已经出现了逆转，其他地区的上行潜力有所改善。比如欧洲（尤其是德国）可能增加的财 政支出有望提振当地企业盈利和估值，而中国受益于国内短期的政策利好以及中长期的AI创新驱动， 有望支撑股票市场的后续表现。 中国股票市场获得更多关注 重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 从"七巨头"到"七邪恶"："美国例外论"的预期逆转 过去几周美国标普500指数经历了一轮超过10%的回调，其中美股"七巨头"（Magnificent 7，包括苹果、 微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta七家美国科技公司）下跌是带动指数调整的主要原 因，"七巨头"也因此被调侃为"七邪恶"（Maleficent 7）。去年标普500指数 ...