Group 1 - Edouard de Langlade, a seasoned macro hedge fund manager, is experiencing one of the best trading periods in his 20-year career, despite finding shorting U.S. stocks to be "painful" [1] - His EDL Global Opportunities strategy, managing $1.6 billion, gained 7.3% last month amid market volatility triggered by President Trump's tariff war, achieving a historical monthly gain of over 14% [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has returned 31%, positioning it as one of the best-performing funds of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, removing its top rating, which has led to 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, adding pressure to the market [2] - Many hedge funds are facing challenges due to stock declines, rising bond yields, and volatility, while de Langlade's fund has achieved excess returns [2] - Foreign investors are reportedly unwilling to fund the U.S. government at current prices, indicating a need for significant adjustments in fiscal policy to attract them back [2]

摩根大通：中美贸易关系取得进展后美元或落后美股 金十数据5月13日讯，摩根大通分析师在一份报告中说，在中美同意暂时降低关税后，美元可能会落后 于美国股市。关税减免降低了美国经济衰退的可能性，但也有利于全球经济增长。美国的经济增长可能 仍将落后于世界其他地区。美元走软的理由依然存在，尽管力度有所减弱。从中期来看，有关美国例外 主义持续到何种程度的信号将与美元更为相关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

智通财经APP注意到，周一美元走弱提振了包括日元和瑞士法郎在内的避险货币，因投资者在特朗普政策下抛售美国资产——摩根大通预计这一趋势将持 续。 由于贸易协议进展停滞，彭博美元现货指数下跌0.5%，年内累计跌幅近7%。周一公布的制造业活动数据不及预期，加剧了市场对美国经济增长的担忧，进 一步拖累美元。日元和瑞士法郎等其他避险货币当日上涨约1%，英镑则飙升至三年高位。 摩根大通全球外汇策略联席主管米拉·钱丹在接受采访时表示："我们预计美元将迎来第二轮疲软，这是一个将持续数季度的周期性转变。" 特朗普的贸易政策和对华强硬言论促使投资者开始大举买入美国以外资产。另一项美元指标自1月20日(特朗普重返白宫之日)至4月28日已下跌约9%，势将创 下至少1973年以来最大单月跌幅。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至4月22日当周，对冲基金和资产管理公司等投机交易者加大了对美元的看空押注，净空头仓位创2024年9月 以来新高。长期投资者也将加入资金撤离美国的行列——由于他们调整策略的频率较低，其撤离意味着美元可能长期承压。 钱丹指出，特朗普政府的政策正在削弱"美国例外主义"这一过去几年支撑市场的主题。"美国增 ...

动荡的每日新闻 帕斯夸里耶洛指出，日常新闻流仍然高度波动，市场对中美关系和美联储政策的信号反应强烈。他表 示，最近的事态发展处于"二阶导数"阶段，贸易政策倾向鹰派，但避免了极端结果。 在一片嘈杂声中，技术指标已变得更加积极。"两个月来首次，技术因素净转为正面，"他写道，并指出 无论是自主交易基金还是系统基金在上周转向买入之前都"基本上已清仓"。 纯多头投资者的持续抛售压力似乎也已暂停，因为他们买入了英伟达和Meta Platforms等大型科技公司 的股票。 不过，在基本面方面，帕斯夸里耶洛表示他仍然保持谨慎："目前，市场参与者的主要工作是权衡局势 降级的概率与经济衰退的概率。除非在关税问题上全面缓和，否则还需要一段时间才能对美国经济增长 的真实轨迹有信心。" 智通财经APP注意到，截至4月25日当周，美国股市在大盘科技股熟悉的涨势推动下大幅走高。但高盛 对冲基金业务全球主管托尼•帕斯夸里耶洛表示，投资者应准备好迎接持续的波动，因为市场正处于 2025年交易区间的正中间。 帕斯夸里耶洛在4月26日的一份客户报告中写道，标准普尔500指数目前较特朗普总统所称"解放日"之后 的抛售完全回撤不到3%，以VIX指数衡 ...

分析师：美国例外主义情绪消退 欧元将继续受益 金十数据4月24日讯，瑞讯集团分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，欧元的下行潜力有限，出于对经济遭受 关税影响的担忧，投资者继续避开美国资产，转而青睐欧洲资产。她在一份报告中说，随着美国例外论 的想法逐渐消退，对欧洲股票的偏好仍在继续。欧元也是如此。"欧元兑美元在本周稍早升穿关键1.15 关口后有所回落。不过，她表示，欧元回调仍是加强欧元多头头寸的机会。她说，欧元多头的下一个目 标是1.20。 ...

关于美股下跌对其他地区股票市场的影响，有机构总结自1990年代以来，当美股跌幅超过10%时，亚洲 股市也会出现一定程度的下跌。另有研报提及，不同国家股市之间的相关性已降至自1990年代以来的最 低水平，一个核心驱动因素在于，投资者在2025年前对美股配置极度乐观，但年初至今这种"美国例外 主义"的预期已经出现了逆转，其他地区的上行潜力有所改善。比如欧洲（尤其是德国）可能增加的财 政支出有望提振当地企业盈利和估值，而中国受益于国内短期的政策利好以及中长期的AI创新驱动， 有望支撑股票市场的后续表现。 中国股票市场获得更多关注 重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 从"七巨头"到"七邪恶"："美国例外论"的预期逆转 过去几周美国标普500指数经历了一轮超过10%的回调，其中美股"七巨头"（Magnificent 7，包括苹果、 微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta七家美国科技公司）下跌是带动指数调整的主要原 因，"七巨头"也因此被调侃为"七邪恶"（Maleficent 7）。去年标普500指数 ...