Group 1 - The core issue in the current market is whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, as the end of U.S. exceptionalism and tariff negotiations have been fully priced in [5][8][14] - The economic growth in the U.S. is facing serious challenges, as government leverage has ended, leaving private sectors to determine their own leverage based on market interest rates and long-term asset return expectations [8][12] - Recent consumer spending data showed a significant decline, with May's consumer spending down 0.28% month-on-month, marking the worst performance in over a year [17][18][19] Group 2 - The upcoming tariff negotiations are critical, with deadlines approaching for agreements with various countries, including the U.S.-Europe talks by July 9 and U.S.-China discussions by August 11 [28][29] - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, which may limit the potential for further market gains unless additional positive factors emerge [28][30] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, as not lowering rates may hinder corporate and consumer leverage, while lowering rates could exacerbate inflation if not managed properly [26]

Group 1 - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility, influenced by President Trump's potential plans to replace Chairman Powell before his term ends in 11 months [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have increased significantly, with a 25% probability of a cut compared to 12% a week prior, and an anticipated reduction of 64 basis points by year-end [1] - The euro has risen by 0.6% to 1.1729 USD, marking its highest level since September 2021, while the British pound has increased by 0.65% to 1.3753 USD, also a peak since October 2021 [2] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has strengthened as traders await the Bank of Japan's next moves, with expectations of a moderate interest rate path supporting the yen's appreciation [4] - Morgan Stanley has warned that the impact of tariffs could slow US economic growth and increase inflation, with a 40% chance of recession, indicating a potential end to the era of US exceptionalism [4] - A recent survey indicates that central banks managing trillions in reserves are considering reallocating funds from the dollar to gold, euros, and renminbi, with one-third planning to increase gold investments in the next one to two years [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for US stocks is expected to oscillate between a stagnant and declining trend until the end of the third quarter, with potential investment opportunities arising after a significant market correction and the opening of the US debt ceiling [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates during the June 18 meeting, reflecting a hawkish stance on economic outlook despite previous expectations [3][5] - Key updates from the Fed include a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, an upward adjustment of unemployment rates, and an increase in inflation expectations [5][6] - The Fed's projections suggest a stagflation-like economic outlook, with a tolerance for rising unemployment rates while maintaining a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar remains near the weak side of its peg, with liquidity conditions expected to remain ample despite potential tightening in the future [9][11] - The current market environment indicates that even with abundant liquidity, asset selection remains critical, as evidenced by the recent IPO of Haitian Flavoring and Food, which underperformed due to high valuations despite favorable market conditions [11][12] Group 3: Portfolio Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio experienced a decline of 1.3% last week, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices, but outperforming MSCI China and Hang Seng Tech [12][14] - Since its inception, the portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88%, significantly outperforming MSCI China by 87% [14] Group 4: Individual Stock Contributions - Notable stock performances included Netflix, which rose by 1.6% due to a content partnership, and Pinduoduo, which saw a slight increase of 0.6% amid a competitive retail landscape [16] - Conversely, stocks like Google and Pop Mart faced declines of 4.6% and 12.1%, respectively, due to regulatory pressures and market competition [16]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts predict that the US dollar may weaken further due to the decline of American exceptionalism, with expectations extending into the second half of next year [1] Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Concerns regarding the US fiscal and current account are impacting the dollar's strength [1] - Asset reallocation and foreign exchange hedging are contributing to the anticipated decline [1] - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff and non-tariff policies are also influencing the dollar's outlook [1] Regional Trade Agreements - Asian trade agreements may involve the appreciation of undervalued currencies, potential repatriation of foreign investments, and foreign exchange hedging [1] - These factors collectively support a stronger stance on shorting the US dollar against the South Korean won [1] Future Projections - The dollar is expected to potentially decline to 1300 against the South Korean won in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress is advancing a budget proposal that includes a progressive tax of up to 20% on passive income from foreign investors, which may suppress demand for U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar [1] - The tax provision, included in Section 899 of the bill, targets entities or individuals from countries deemed to have "unfair tax practices," with an estimated revenue increase of $116 billion over the next decade if passed by the Senate [1] - The new tax could escalate the trade war into a capital war, potentially negatively impacting demand for U.S. government debt at a time when reliance on foreign investment is critical due to rising fiscal deficits [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that the proposed tax could lead to a significant reduction in foreign investment in U.S. assets, thereby weakening the dollar [2] - European investors with passive income in the U.S. are expected to be the most affected, although specific impact estimates have not been provided [2] - The tax could have severe long-term implications for international companies operating in the U.S., affecting American workers rather than foreign bureaucrats [2] Group 3 - The legal ambiguity surrounding the potential taxation of U.S. Treasury interest has caused panic among foreign investors, with concerns that borrowing costs could rise significantly if such taxes are implemented [2] - Foreign clients are reportedly expressing concern and seeking clarification regarding the implications of the new tax provisions on U.S. debt [2]

Group 1 - Edouard de Langlade, a seasoned macro hedge fund manager, is experiencing one of the best trading periods in his 20-year career, despite finding shorting U.S. stocks to be "painful" [1] - His EDL Global Opportunities strategy, managing $1.6 billion, gained 7.3% last month amid market volatility triggered by President Trump's tariff war, achieving a historical monthly gain of over 14% [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has returned 31%, positioning it as one of the best-performing funds of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, removing its top rating, which has led to 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, adding pressure to the market [2] - Many hedge funds are facing challenges due to stock declines, rising bond yields, and volatility, while de Langlade's fund has achieved excess returns [2] - Foreign investors are reportedly unwilling to fund the U.S. government at current prices, indicating a need for significant adjustments in fiscal policy to attract them back [2]

摩根大通：中美贸易关系取得进展后美元或落后美股 金十数据5月13日讯，摩根大通分析师在一份报告中说，在中美同意暂时降低关税后，美元可能会落后 于美国股市。关税减免降低了美国经济衰退的可能性，但也有利于全球经济增长。美国的经济增长可能 仍将落后于世界其他地区。美元走软的理由依然存在，尽管力度有所减弱。从中期来看，有关美国例外 主义持续到何种程度的信号将与美元更为相关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is driven by investor sentiment influenced by Trump's policies, leading to increased buying of non-US assets and a significant decline in the dollar's value [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.5%, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 7% due to stagnant trade agreement progress and disappointing manufacturing activity data [1]. - JPMorgan forecasts a second round of dollar weakness, indicating a cyclical shift that may last several quarters [2]. - Speculative traders have increased their bearish bets on the dollar, with net short positions reaching a new high since September 2024 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Other Currencies - The euro is expected to benefit significantly from the dollar's weakness, with a year-to-date increase of over 10% against the dollar, prompting JPMorgan to raise its year-end euro forecast from 1.14 to 1.20 [5]. - The British pound has strengthened due to capital outflows from US assets, with expectations of it reaching 1.39 USD within 12 months, despite potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [5]. - The strengthening of the pound may also be linked to improving UK-EU economic relations, with upcoming events potentially leading to a reassessment of post-Brexit ties [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.2%, as traders await further guidance from upcoming labor market reports [4]. - The tightening of US immigration and fiscal policies is seen as detrimental to the "American exceptionalism" theme that has supported markets in recent years [4].