1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Market bets on Fed rate cuts decreased in the early part of the week, but the July non - farm payrolls data triggered concerns about US employment and economic downturn, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable economic progress in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on using existing policies more effectively, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and the progress of US negotiations with China, Mexico and other economies should be monitored [5]. - Asset views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: Market bets on Fed rate cuts fell in the first half of the week due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and rising PCE in June. However, the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rising unemployment rate under a declining labor participation rate, increasing expectations of US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts [5]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting emphasized using existing policies effectively, with limited new policies. The July composite PMI was above the critical point, and attention should be paid to US economic negotiations [5]. - Asset: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, with stronger policy - driven logic in the second half of the year and higher probability of incremental policies in Q4. Overseas, concerns about US economic slowdown boost gold. The long - term weak US dollar trend continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched [5]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: After event settlement, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [6]. - Stock index options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and it is expected to move sideways [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The market continues to digest Politburo meeting information. It is expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: With the US fundamentals weakening and the restart of the rate - cut cycle logic, precious metals are expected to rise in a volatile manner, influenced by Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move sideways, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With strong anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, the futures market is firm. It is expected to move sideways, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [6]. - Iron ore: With a slight decrease in small - sample hot - metal production, the price moves sideways, affected by factors such as overseas mine production, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policies [6]. - Other products (coke, etc.): All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as production, cost, and macro - sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Affected by disappointing US non - farm payrolls data, the price is under pressure and expected to decline in a volatile manner, influenced by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [6]. - Other metals: Most are expected to move sideways, affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - risks [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: With geopolitical expectations fluctuating, it is expected to move sideways, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - Other chemical products: All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as weather, supply, demand, and policies [9]. - Logs: Are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of weak U.S. employment data on gold prices, as it raises concerns about the economy and strengthens gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, with revisions to previous months totaling a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, indicating a weakening labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [2][3] Group 2 - The resignation of hawkish Federal Reserve member Kugler adds uncertainty to future monetary policy, potentially weakening the dollar's credibility and benefiting gold prices [2] - Longjiang Securities noted that the labor participation rate's decline is closely linked to Trump's immigration policies, which may exacerbate long-term labor market issues [3] - The gold stock ETF (517520) has shown a 24.04% increase in net value over the past six months, indicating strong performance in the gold sector [3]

Group 1 - Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that the Fed's high interest rates are detrimental to the U.S. economy and seeking assistance from China [1][3] - The political strategy behind Trump's criticism is to shift blame for economic downturns onto the Federal Reserve, thereby rallying support from his voter base [3][4] - Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising inflation, which has made the Fed hesitant to lower interest rates, complicating the economic landscape [5][6] Group 2 - Trump plans to visit China with a large business delegation, similar to his previous visit to Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure investments and orders from China [10][11] - The expectation of significant Chinese investment is seen as unrealistic given the current tensions in U.S.-China relations and the lack of trust in U.S. economic policies [13] - The U.S. government's actions have led to a loss of global confidence in the American economy, making it difficult to expect foreign assistance without policy adjustments [13]

Global Asset Price Performance - The Nikkei 225 index led the gains with an increase of 4.6%, while major US stock indices also saw rises, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 2.1%, 1.8%, and 3.7% respectively [1] - In the bond market, the yields on major government bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 12 basis points [1] - Commodity prices for gold and oil decreased, and the US dollar index dropped by 1.5%, with the British pound and euro appreciating the most [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, with market probabilities for a July cut rising from 10% to around 20% [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that if price pressures remain significant, a rate cut may be delayed until September or later [3] US Economic Dynamics - The US Q1 GDP was revised down from an initial estimate of -0.2% to -0.5%, primarily due to a surge in imports widening the trade deficit, along with further downward revisions in consumer spending [9] - The manufacturing PMI for June remained flat at 52, while the services PMI fell to 53.1, reflecting widespread tariff impacts on business activities [9] - The US housing market continues to decline, with May existing home sales showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, and new home sales experiencing a more significant decline [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's overall outlook remains weak, but Germany's economic sentiment has improved, with the composite PMI rising to 50.4, indicating signs of recovery in domestic demand [16] - Japan's economic outlook is optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI for May rebounding to 50.4, marking the first return to expansion since July 2024 [16] - Tensions in the Middle East have eased, with a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, providing a buffer against risks to oil prices and global markets [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term outlook of fluctuating with a slight upward bias for precious metals [5][30] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US involvement in the Middle East conflict bring more uncertainties to the subsequent war situation, which is the main event affecting precious metals recently [30] - Due to the continuous rise in crude oil prices, US inflation and inflation expectations may be under pressure again, and the Fed's interest rate cut faces more uncertainties [30] - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The main trading and focus in the market are the Middle East geopolitics, the US economic outlook, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm [10] - Previously, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased the short - term upward momentum of silver, leading to a differentiated market between gold and silver. Subsequently, the increase in Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the risk - aversion sentiment, and the economic downturn expectation drove up the price of gold, and the market of silver and gold diverged again [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On June 21st, US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed", but Iran stated that the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged and the above - ground part could be repaired [2][13][21] - Fed Governor Waller said that he expected tariffs not to significantly push up inflation, and the Fed might cut interest rates as early as the July meeting [13] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached 248,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [15][17] - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, believing that the US interest rate should be lowered by 250 basis points [15] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran would not accept any "imposed peace or war" and would not ignore any attacks on its territory [15] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation expectation to 3% [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - In April, US durable goods orders declined more than expected due to a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders. The core capital goods orders decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and the overall durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month [17] - In April, US retail sales increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month [17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since October 2024. The May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year [17] - In May, non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [17] - The Fed has increased its expectation of economic downward pressure and inflation upward pressure [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the possible increase in tariffs have led to an escalation of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties in tariffs, which may interfere with the Fed's interest rate cut decision [21] - The risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, increasing the bullish factors for gold [21] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The final value of the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing expansion speed and increasing economic downward pressure [22] - Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, European and American stock markets declined, and risk appetite decreased [22] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors such as positive signals from US trade negotiations, the release of positive momentum from China's holiday consumption, increased market confidence in the Chinese economy, and the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has appreciated significantly [28] - After the May Day holiday, the RMB has a slight depreciation but still maintains an appreciation trend. The exchange rate will not be an important factor affecting precious metals [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with minimal incremental information from the meeting [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen to 58.9%, with a 42.6% chance of another cut in December [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is projected to face "stagflation" by 2025, with a real growth rate of only 1.4% and inflation at 3.1% [2] - Employment data shows structural weaknesses despite strong wage growth, with leading indicators suggesting a potential decline in employment numbers [2] - Consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, with May retail sales declining by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.7% [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Corporate investment is expected to continue declining, with weak manufacturing PMI and new orders indicating a downturn in non-residential investment growth [3] - The real estate sector is facing challenges such as weak housing demand and high financing rates, making improvements unlikely in the near term [3] Group 4: Factors Influencing Future Rate Cuts - Key triggers for potential rate cuts include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, risks in corporate bonds, and the upcoming concentrated issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds [6] - Barclays suggests that labor market weakness, diminishing tariff impacts on inflation, and declining consumer spending will be critical factors influencing future policy [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, unchanged from March, but the number of officials not expecting cuts has increased[2] - Economic outlook revisions show a decrease in GDP growth expectations and an increase in unemployment and PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years[2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising prices and creating persistent inflationary pressures, with uncertainty about the overall impact of tariffs on inflation[2][6] - The uncertainty index for U.S. trade policy decreased to 5846.74, returning to March levels, indicating reduced negative impacts from tariff policies[6] - Despite stable employment data, inflation risks are heightened, with expectations of noticeable inflation increases in the coming months[8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing a decline, reflecting a moderate economic slowdown[7] - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales by 0.9% in May, the largest decline in two years, and a 0.2% decrease in industrial output[12] - Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000, the highest since October 2024, suggesting increasing difficulty in the labor market[12]

Group 1 - President Trump has publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction could allow for cheaper debt purchases and that rates should be two percentage points lower than current levels [2] - The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% during the June meeting, despite Trump's calls for a reduction [2] - The Federal Reserve's rationale for keeping rates steady is the potential for a rebound in inflation, although recent economic data indicates that inflation rates in the U.S. are steadily declining without significant rebounds [2] Group 2 - Maintaining high interest rates for an extended period is viewed as a mistake, with concerns that it could negatively impact the U.S. economy and accelerate its downturn [3] - Lowering interest rates is seen as a necessary step to reduce the financing costs of U.S. national debt, especially in light of ongoing fiscal deficits that may increase the national debt scale [2]