Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions and uncertainty regarding interest rate decisions have intensified, with Chairman Powell indicating that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1][4] - Bill Gross, a prominent investor, has begun shorting U.S. Treasury futures, betting on rising yields due to high deficits and excessive bond issuance [3][5][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal dissent, with two out of twelve voting members opposing the recent rate decision, highlighting differing views on whether to cut rates or maintain them [4] - Some members, like Jeff Schmid, argue for holding rates steady due to a balanced labor market and persistent inflation, while others, including Governor Waller, advocate for a rate cut based on labor market concerns [4][6] - This level of disagreement is noted as the first of its kind in six years, suggesting potential for ongoing divergence in future policy decisions [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Bill Gross's decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures reflects a bearish outlook on U.S. government bonds, driven by concerns over expanding deficits and a weakening dollar [5][6] - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors should consider shifting strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less sensitive to short-term policy changes [6] - High U.S. Treasury yields are supporting the dollar, making it more attractive for global investors, as expectations for Fed rate cuts have moderated [7]

Market Performance - Global markets mostly declined last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.2%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 0.6% [1] - The US 10Y Treasury yield saw a significant increase, while silver prices surged and gold prices increased at a slower rate [1] - The dollar strengthened against the pound, yen, and renminbi, with defensive sectors like energy materials and utilities performing well [1] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume weakened globally, with a rebound in short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Major indices such as Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and Kospi 200 experienced a decline in trading volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and US markets decreased but remained at historically high levels, while volatility decreased in Hong Kong and US markets but increased in European and Japanese markets [1] Earnings Expectations - Global stock market earnings expectations were generally revised downwards, with some markets seeing upward revisions in energy materials [2] - The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2068 to 2063, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was adjusted from 269 to 268 [2] - The Eurozone STOXX50's EPS forecast was also revised down from 337 to 333 [2] Economic Expectations - US economic expectations improved last week, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rising due to fluctuating Fed policy expectations and better-than-expected tech earnings [2] - Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to rising geopolitical risks and weak manufacturing data [2] - China's Economic Surprise Index also fell, impacted by uncertain real estate policy effects and fluctuating external demand data [2] Capital Flows - The divergence in Fed policy signals intensified market speculation, with futures markets indicating an expected 1.8 rate cuts by the Fed this year [3] - Global liquidity trends shifted towards easing, with significant capital inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea [3] - Hong Kong's stock connect and stable foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong market were noted [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [1][2][3]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a deceleration in job growth, leading to heightened risks in the labor market [2][5]. - Inflation has recently risen and remains at a high level, influenced by tariff news, although long-term inflation expectations are still aligned with the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. Monetary Policy Stance - Powell indicated that even after the recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, the Fed's policy stance remains slightly restrictive [3][4]. - The Fed's policy is not on a preset path and will continue to adapt based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions [3][4]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - There are significant differences among Fed officials regarding the outlook for interest rates, with Vice Chair Bowman emphasizing the need to address labor market issues without overemphasizing inflation risks [5][6]. - Bowman expressed concerns about the Fed lagging in responding to deteriorating labor market conditions and suggested a proactive approach to policy adjustments [6]. - In contrast, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urged caution regarding further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above target levels [7].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a critical turning point in August, driven by increasing divergence in Federal Reserve policy and adjustments in global tariff policies, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July meeting, but internal disagreements have become more pronounced [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation and noted that tariff policy adjustments could reshape inflation prospects [3]. - There is a split within the Fed, with some members supporting a rate cut in September due to concerns over high rates suppressing business investment, while others warn that premature cuts could trigger a second wave of inflation [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Rising prices in various sectors, including a 0.4% increase in clothing prices and a 1.9% surge in household appliance prices, indicate growing inflationary pressures [3]. - The Markit manufacturing PMI for July fell back into contraction territory, reflecting the lowest business confidence in the past two and a half years [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming month is expected to see accelerated gold market activity, with key central bank meetings and important economic data releases on the horizon [6]. - Significant dates include the Bank of England's rate decision on August 7, the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on August 12, and the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 21 [6]. - The market is poised for potential peaks in gold prices, with various economic indicators set to be released, including U.S. retail sales and CPI data [6].

Group 1 - The spot gold market has attracted significant investor attention, with prices fluctuating between $3320 and $3335, and currently priced at $3331 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1] - Gold prices have notably broken through the important level of $3330 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to witness a rare occurrence where multiple board members may cast dissenting votes, with members Waller and Bowman publicly supporting interest rate cuts, contrasting with Chairman Powell's cautious stance [2] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly evident, potentially ending the consensus culture that has existed since the 1990s [3] - Historical data indicates that collective dissent among Federal Reserve board members is extremely rare, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2][3] Group 3 - The technical analysis of gold prices shows a complex situation, with previous declines indicating increased bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3328 - $3330 and $3348 - $3350, while $3300 serves as a significant support level [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is increasing, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% expect rates to remain unchanged [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his support for rate cuts this year [3] - There are allegations from Republican congressmen that Powell committed perjury, leading to proposed criminal charges [3] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, experiencing volatile trading patterns, with a recent low of 3310 before rebounding [5] - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on August 1, gold's safe-haven appeal has increased, leading to a breakout above the 3375 resistance level, reaching nearly 3400 [5] - The bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with daily gains opening up the upper Bollinger Band space, and short-term outlook remains bullish despite pressure at the 3400 level [5][6] Group 3 - Silver has been trading in a high range between 37.3 and 35, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance to reach a new high of 39 [9] - The bullish market structure for silver is reinforced by daily and weekly charts showing upward momentum, with MA5 and MA10 maintaining a bullish crossover [9] - The focus for silver trading is on the support level around 38, with expectations for continued bullish movement [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing policy divergence, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% believe rates will remain unchanged [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views, with some adopting a hawkish stance and others favoring rate cuts within the year [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chair, particularly given his clear support for rate cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Gold has been fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, showing weak continuation in both bullish and bearish trends, with rapid conversion frequency [5] - After failing to break through the 3375 level, gold experienced a significant pullback, indicating strong short positions, but has since rebounded to the 3350 level [5] - The Bollinger Bands for gold are in a constricted state, limiting price movements and resulting in a volatile trading pattern [5] Group 3 - Silver has maintained a high level of volatility after reaching 37.3, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance and hitting a new historical high at 39 [8] - The bullish market sentiment for silver is strengthening, with daily charts indicating a consolidation phase before further upward movement [8] - The focus for trading silver should be on the 37.2 to 37.5 range for long positions [8]