Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a short-term pullback in gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains intact due to gold's strong safe-haven asset characteristics [3] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has shifted market focus towards economic data, increasing uncertainty due to diverging views on Federal Reserve policy [2][3] - Gold ETF funds have seen significant net inflows, with a total of 3.31 billion yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the gold ETF fund has experienced a 4.77% increase over the past week, with a current price of 9.13 yuan [1] - On November 13, spot gold prices fell by 0.54% to $4,172.84 per ounce, with a notable drop of over $100 during the day due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The trading volume for the gold ETF fund reached 5.39 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 13.43 billion yuan over the past week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to strengthen, experiencing significant volatility influenced by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with a closing price of $4,174.5 per ounce for COMEX gold futures, down 0.93% [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices fluctuated over $100 during the trading day, with the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rising by 1.6% and the gold stock ETF (159562) increasing by 3.07% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Commentary - The U.S. government ended its longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, which has shifted market focus towards economic data [1] - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with Kashkari opposing the last rate cut and remaining undecided on December's meeting actions [1] - Musalem emphasized caution regarding further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, while Harmack suggested maintaining current interest rates to continue reducing inflation [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The divergence in Federal Reserve policies has increased market uncertainty, compounded by weak economic data from the Eurozone and an unclear global economic outlook, which supports gold's safe-haven demand [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the gold price has shown a volatile consolidation pattern. New York gold fluctuates around the $4,000 mark, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fluctuates around 915 yuan [6][23]. - Factors influencing the gold price recently include: Fed policy divergence leading market sentiment, with multiple officials making hawkish statements, reducing the expectation of a December interest rate cut and pressuring the gold price; the risk of a US government shutdown and the delay in key economic data release weakening the US dollar's fundamentals and providing some safe - haven support for the gold price; the US dollar index hitting a three - month high, suppressing the gold price, but a short - term pullback in the US dollar index and pressure at the 100 mark corresponding to a recovery sign in the gold price [6][23]. - In the short term, the gold price is under pressure. Continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $4,000. In the medium - to - long term, the safe - haven allocation demand for gold still exists. If it declines, pay attention to the support at $3,900 and the 60 - day moving average [6][23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the US dollar index linkage, but no specific content about the weekly trend is described [10]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | November 7 | October 31 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,007.80 | $4,013.40 | - 0.14% | | COMEX Silver | $48.23 | $48.25 | - 0.05% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 921.26 yuan | 921.92 yuan | - 0.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,484.00 yuan | 11,441.00 yuan | 0.38% | | US Dollar Index | 99.55 | 99.73 | - 0.18% | | US Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.12 | 7.12 | 0.03% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.83 | 1.81 | + 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,728.80 | 6,840.20 | - 1.63% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $59.84 | $60.88 | - 1.71% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 83.11 | 83.18 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.22 | 80.58 | - 0.45% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,042.06 tons | 1,039.20 tons | + 2.86 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 481.84 tons | 483.00 tons | - 1.16 tons | [11] 2. Gold Price Volatility - Last week, the US dollar index rose and then fell, once breaking through the 100 mark and the high in late July. As the US dollar pulled back, the gold price gradually strengthened in the short term [13]. - Last week, market risk appetite declined, and the US stock market declined and then stabilized [15]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the gold price stabilized with fluctuations, and the outflow from ETFs slowed down [17]. - Last week, precious metals stabilized with fluctuations, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated weakly [19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating the current consolidation pattern of the gold price, influencing factors, short - term pressure, and medium - to - long - term safe - haven demand [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Core Insights - The US Dollar Index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August, reaching a peak of 100.21, marking a three-month high [1] - The internal policy divergence within the Federal Reserve is identified as a direct catalyst for the short-term rebound of the dollar [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly decreased from 94% to 69%, which has quickly driven the dollar's recovery [1] Group 1 - The US government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the record for the longest shutdown in US history [1] - Despite being seen as a potential negative for the dollar, the shutdown has temporarily reinforced the dollar's safe-haven status [1] - The risks associated with the shutdown are primarily related to internal fiscal execution rather than external repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, although its upward movement may be limited [1] - If the government shutdown continues, the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve may become more challenging, leading the market to reassess the sustainability of dollar policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure due to diverging Federal Reserve policies and a government shutdown, while long-term support factors remain intact, indicating a pause in the upward trend rather than a collapse [2][3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Short-term pressures are primarily caused by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from nearly 100% to 65.3% after Powell's comments [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high and suppressing gold prices [2]. - Additional negative factors include China's termination of tax exemptions for certain gold retailers, which weakens physical demand, and a surge in U.S. corporate bond issuance that diverts funds and raises U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Long-term Support Logic - Key factors such as global geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and central bank gold purchases have not changed, suggesting that the recent pause in gold price increases is temporary [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, after reaching 4381 in mid-October, gold faced significant pullback, but the pace of decline is slowing, indicating a potential for stabilization [5]. - In the four-hour chart, gold initially dipped before recovering, with key resistance levels identified at 4030/4031 and 4046, while support is noted at 3962 [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions and uncertainty regarding interest rate decisions have intensified, with Chairman Powell indicating that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1][4] - Bill Gross, a prominent investor, has begun shorting U.S. Treasury futures, betting on rising yields due to high deficits and excessive bond issuance [3][5][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal dissent, with two out of twelve voting members opposing the recent rate decision, highlighting differing views on whether to cut rates or maintain them [4] - Some members, like Jeff Schmid, argue for holding rates steady due to a balanced labor market and persistent inflation, while others, including Governor Waller, advocate for a rate cut based on labor market concerns [4][6] - This level of disagreement is noted as the first of its kind in six years, suggesting potential for ongoing divergence in future policy decisions [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Bill Gross's decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures reflects a bearish outlook on U.S. government bonds, driven by concerns over expanding deficits and a weakening dollar [5][6] - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors should consider shifting strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less sensitive to short-term policy changes [6] - High U.S. Treasury yields are supporting the dollar, making it more attractive for global investors, as expectations for Fed rate cuts have moderated [7]

Market Performance - Global markets mostly declined last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.2%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 0.6% [1] - The US 10Y Treasury yield saw a significant increase, while silver prices surged and gold prices increased at a slower rate [1] - The dollar strengthened against the pound, yen, and renminbi, with defensive sectors like energy materials and utilities performing well [1] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume weakened globally, with a rebound in short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Major indices such as Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and Kospi 200 experienced a decline in trading volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and US markets decreased but remained at historically high levels, while volatility decreased in Hong Kong and US markets but increased in European and Japanese markets [1] Earnings Expectations - Global stock market earnings expectations were generally revised downwards, with some markets seeing upward revisions in energy materials [2] - The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2068 to 2063, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was adjusted from 269 to 268 [2] - The Eurozone STOXX50's EPS forecast was also revised down from 337 to 333 [2] Economic Expectations - US economic expectations improved last week, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rising due to fluctuating Fed policy expectations and better-than-expected tech earnings [2] - Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to rising geopolitical risks and weak manufacturing data [2] - China's Economic Surprise Index also fell, impacted by uncertain real estate policy effects and fluctuating external demand data [2] Capital Flows - The divergence in Fed policy signals intensified market speculation, with futures markets indicating an expected 1.8 rate cuts by the Fed this year [3] - Global liquidity trends shifted towards easing, with significant capital inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea [3] - Hong Kong's stock connect and stable foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong market were noted [3]