Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is on the right track regarding the reduction of its balance sheet and has room to continue this process at the current pace for a considerable period [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has the capacity to further reduce its balance sheet, indicating a strategic approach to monetary policy [1] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction can be maintained for an extended duration, suggesting confidence in the ongoing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the balance sheet reduction will not impact market prices [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is actively managing its balance sheet, indicating a strategic approach to monetary policy [1] - Williams emphasized that the market should not expect significant price fluctuations as a result of the Fed's actions [1] - The comments suggest confidence in the stability of financial markets despite ongoing adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction significantly impacts the platinum group metals market, affecting liquidity, exchange rates, investor expectations, and industrial demand, necessitating strategic responses from market participants [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction Overview - The balance sheet reduction, initiated in 2017, aims to address potential inflation pressures during economic recovery by directly withdrawing liquidity from the market [2]. Group 2: Spillover Effects on Platinum Group Metals Market - Liquidity changes due to the Federal Reserve's actions lead to reduced market funding, increasing investment caution and potentially causing price declines in platinum group metals [2][3]. - Exchange rate fluctuations, particularly a stronger dollar, raise costs for non-dollar investors, potentially suppressing demand for platinum group metals [2][4]. - Investor expectations and market sentiment are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, leading to preemptive adjustments in investment strategies and increased price volatility [3][4]. Group 3: Industrial Demand Impact - The balance sheet reduction may indirectly affect industrial demand for platinum group metals by slowing global economic growth, particularly impacting the automotive sector, which is a major consumer [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Responding to Balance Sheet Reduction - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios by reducing exposure to platinum group metals and increasing liquidity, while also exploring structural opportunities within the market [5]. - Companies in the platinum group metals supply chain should enhance risk management practices, optimize production processes, and diversify market channels to mitigate the impact of reduced liquidity [6]. - Government support through policies promoting recycling, innovation, and market regulation is essential for stabilizing the platinum group metals industry [7]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The platinum group metals market will continue to face uncertainties due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, but its fundamental importance in various sectors remains [8].

申万宏源宏观｜聚焦"政治局会议"20250427 摘要 • 欧盟与美国重启高级别贸易谈判，但具体时间未定；英国坚持食品安全等 核心标准，不急于达成贸易协议。中美虽有沟通，但对降低关税的说法存 在分歧。美日谈判聚焦汽车、农产品及防卫费用，日本态度谨慎。 • 美联储官员表态偏鸽派，暗示可能在就业市场恶化时更快降息，6 月或采 取行动。美国制造业 PMI 略强于预期，服务业 PMI 则不及预期。市场预期 美联储 5 月降息概率为 8%，6 月为 58%，降息时点存在分歧。 • 对等关税政策冲击美国资本市场，影响美债市场，并导致特朗普团队内部 权力再分配。财政部长姆努钦在中美谈判中发挥关键作用。美印、越南等 贸易关系也在磋商中。 • 美联储可能在年中调整或结束缩表，但上半年债务上限问题导致 TGA 账户 释放流动性，缓解了货币市场紧张。解决债务上限后，回补 TGA 账户可能 加剧三季度流动性紧张，对杠杆交易者构成风险。 • 日本政府出台对冲关税政策，侧重于企业咨询和融资支持，而非直接补贴， 旨在提高企业竞争力和抗风险能力。这些措施旨在帮助企业应对国际贸易 环境变化带来的挑战。 Q&A 最近海外资本市场的主要动向是什么 ...