美国银行经济学家指出，投资者对美联储与美国财政部可能达成"协同协议"的猜测正引发疑问。该行认 为，此类协议"定义尚不明确"，且可能性很可能已被市场消化。"除非协议内容超越当前市场讨论范 畴，否则任何新协议都难以引发实质性价格波动。"美银称，协议将主要围绕美联储缩表及美债发行展 开。经济学家预计，若货币政策受到影响（该行认为可能性极低）或财政部限制长债发行（美银认为存 在可能），则对市场影响更大。 来源：滚动播报 ...

路透调查显示，长端美债收益率短期内将持稳，但受通胀及美联储独立性担忧影响，年内晚些时候将趋 于上行；短端收益率则因降息押注温和走低。与此同时，近60%的债券策略师（37人中的21人）认为， 为特朗普减税及支出计划融资而面临的未来数年巨额国债发行，将使美联储大幅缩减6.6万亿美元资产 负债表不具可行性。另一项路透调查显示，美联储预计将在今年晚些时候实施两次降息，首次在沃什接 任美联储主席的6月。对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率预计将从目前的3.50%降至4月底的3.45%、7月底 的3.38%。调查中值还显示，基准10年期美债收益率一年后料升至4.29%，高于上月预测的4.20%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that even if Kevin Warsh becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, the Fed will not rush to reduce its balance sheet, with decisions expected to take up to a year to finalize [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The adjustment of the balance sheet will be decided independently by the Federal Reserve, and if it shifts to a "sufficient reserves" policy, a large balance sheet will need to be maintained [1] - Warsh's nomination is seen as a significant shift in monetary policy direction, aiming to balance the Fed's independence with administrative pressure [1] - Warsh's policy is characterized as a moderate hawkish stance, advocating for a substantial reduction in the balance sheet to create space for lowering the federal funds rate [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The market perceives Warsh's "balance sheet reduction and rate cut" policy as bold but fraught with uncertainties, potentially leading to a sharp rise in overnight financing rates if the Fed aggressively reduces reserves [2] - Experts warn that reducing the balance sheet could raise long-term rates, directly impacting the goal of lowering rates [2] - Citi strategists believe Warsh may adopt a gradual approach to reduce the Fed's approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet to avoid reigniting tensions in the money market [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation Strategies - Citi suggests that the threshold for restarting quantitative tightening (QT) is very high, with policymakers preferring a more moderate approach to balance sheet management [3] - Under Warsh's leadership, the Fed may have various "de-leveraging" options, with the least resistance path being the rolling over of maturing long-term Treasury bonds into short-term debt [3]

【市场要闻速递】 据消息，当地时间2月10日，美国总统特朗普称他正在考虑，若与伊朗的谈判未能取得成果，或向中东 地区再派遣一支美国航母打击群，为可能的军事行动做准备。特朗普当天还表示，"伊朗不会拥有核武 器或者导弹"。特朗普预计，美伊第二轮谈判将在下周举行。他强调，任何与伊朗达成的协议都必须不 仅包括核问题，还必须包括处理伊朗的弹道导弹问题。他补充说，"我们可以与伊朗达成一份非常好的 协议"。 黄金前期低点或已形成阶段性底部。即便未来美联储启动"缩表"，也并不意味着债务扩张停滞，从长期 配置角度看，黄金仍具有较高的配置价值。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，2月10日黄金etf持有量为1079.32吨，较上一交易日 减少0.34吨。周一（2月10日)截止收盘，现货黄金报5024.19美元/盎司，跌幅0.67%，日内最高上探至 5077.99美元/盎司，最低触4985.99美元/盎司。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call This document is a summary based on the Caixin article [https://a.caixin.com/FA909Zlp](https://a.caixin.com/FA909Zlp). The summary may deviate from the original intent of the text and does not represent Caixin's views or positions. It is recommended to click the link for detailed comparison and verification. Industry Overview - The document discusses the recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, which have experienced significant fluctuations in early 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility**: In January 2026, gold and silver prices saw extreme volatility, with gold reaching approximately $5,600 per ounce before dropping to around $4,683 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 40%, the largest in 40 years [10][11][24]. 2. **Speculative Behavior**: The market is characterized by speculative trading, with significant price movements driven by investor sentiment rather than fundamental factors. This has led to a bubble-like state in the gold and silver markets [22][33]. 3. **Impact of External Factors**: Political events, such as actions taken by former President Trump, have been cited as catalysts for price increases in gold, indicating that geopolitical tensions can significantly influence market dynamics [22][39]. 4. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, viewing gold as a hedge against currency risk, which has contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [38][39]. 5. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to adopt long-term holding strategies for gold and to avoid leveraging due to the current market volatility. It is suggested that gold should be treated as a safe-haven asset within a diversified portfolio [30][31][32]. Additional Important Content 1. **Regulatory Responses**: In response to market volatility, exchanges have increased trading costs and adjusted margin requirements to mitigate risks associated with excessive speculation [23][24]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment among investors is mixed, with some looking to capitalize on price dips while others remain cautious due to the high volatility [30][31]. 3. **Supply Chain Concerns**: The document highlights potential supply chain disruptions for silver due to new tariffs and regulations, which could further impact market liquidity and pricing [41]. 4. **Long-term Outlook**: Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for continued central bank purchases [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the precious metals market, focusing on the dynamics of gold and silver prices, investor behavior, and the broader economic implications.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the transition to a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet requires close coordination between the central bank and the Treasury to avoid excessive market volatility [1] - The normalization of the balance sheet is expected to be a multi-year process, with potential risk premiums demanded by investors during the transition [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet peaked at approximately $8.9 trillion in June 2022, significantly expanded from $800 billion two decades ago, and is projected to decrease to $6.6 trillion by November 2025 [1] Group 2 - Barclays notes that the Federal Reserve could reduce its balance sheet by stopping the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), but this may lead to renewed funding pressures [2] - To achieve meaningful balance sheet reduction, the demand for reserves by banks must be lowered, with current bank reserves at $2.94 trillion and a suggested reduction in the reserve ratio from 12% to 8-9% [2] - An alternative approach involves reinvesting maturing long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities into short-term government debt, which requires close coordination with the Treasury to avoid increasing long-term bond issuance costs [2] Group 3 - Both proposed outcomes are not ideal for the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve may ultimately need to lower policy rates to counteract the tightening market environment [3] - Significant balance sheet reduction is feasible, provided that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have clear and aligned objectives to stabilize market expectations [3]

【巴克莱：美联储缩表将耗时多年，或需降息来抵消金融环境收紧】巴克莱策略师表示，美联储向更小 规模的资产负债表过渡，将需要央行与财政部之间进行密切协调，以防止市场波动过大。 他们写道，这一过程将导致金融环境收紧，而曾呼吁大幅削减规模达6.6万亿美元资产组合的美联储主 席提名人凯文·沃什，可能不得不通过更低的政策利率来对冲这种收紧。 巴克莱策略师Anshul Pradhan、Samuel Earl和Demi Hu写道："资产负债表正常化将是一个持续多年的过 程。"他们补充称："鉴于沃什希望缩表，以及美联储与财政部的目标并不总是同步，投资者很可能会在 这个转换过程中要求风险溢价。" ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 美国财政部长贝森特周日表示， 即便是在此前批评央行债券购买计划的沃什被提名美联储主席的情况下，他不认为美联储会迅速采取行动缩 减资产负债表。 据报道，贝森特在福克斯新闻频道的"周日早间期货"节目中指出， 美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对其资产负债表作出决定。 这一表态为市场提供了关键的政策预期指引，暗示货币当局在资产负债表管理上将采取审慎和观望的态度。 贝森特强调， 资产负债表的调整取决于美联储自身的意愿，如果转向"充裕（储备）机制"政策，实际上需要维持较大的资产负债表规模。 他 预计美联储"可能会先退一步，至少花一年时间来决定他们想要做什么"，这表明短期内大规模的量化紧缩加速或急剧转向的可能性较低。 然而，在去年12月，美联储开始通过购买国库券的技术性操作，再次增加了债券持有量。此举旨在确保金融系统拥有充足的流动性，从而有 力地控制其利率目标区间。 审 慎 的 政 策 路 径 与 时 间 表 贝森特明确表示，沃什将是一位非常独立的美联储主席，关于资产负债表的具体操作将完全由美联储决定。但他同时给出了较为明确的预期 管理，即不应期待任何快速的行动。 贝森特指出，如果美联储决定采取所谓的" ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13740 | 5 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -85 | 20 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -6340 | 240 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 37421 | -3978 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 54130 | 607 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 535 | -65 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | -0.07 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 23861.23 | 11020.74 进口数量:镍铁(月,万吨) | 99. ...

| | | 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 133350 | -1170 03-04月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -230 | 10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17410 | 175 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 80242 | -3734 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日, ...