1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's risk - aversion sentiment is easing due to the approaching effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs and the progress of trade talks. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the Fed's independence is also unclear. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and macro - economic data. Each metal has different trading strategies according to its specific situation [2][4]. 3. Summaries by Metal Types Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3314.63 per ounce; London silver closed flat at $38.17 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures fell 0.31% to 770.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.27% to 9200 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.633, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.417%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 7.1787 [2]. Important资讯 - Trump may announce tariffs on drugs, with global tariffs around 15 - 20%. Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September is 35.4% [2]. Logic Analysis - Market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and the short - term rebound of the US dollar pressures precious metals. In the long run, precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility due to uncertainties [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79010 yuan per ton, up 0.04%, with the index reducing positions by 617 to 498300 lots. LME copper closed at $9762.5 per ton, down 0.34%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248000 tons [6]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion [6]. Logic Analysis - Market is affected by tariff expectations. Domestic smelters maintain high production, and supply and demand are weak [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term pressure and oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2509 contract fell 14 yuan to 3260 yuan per ton at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [12]. Important资讯 - Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental control notices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for the stable growth of key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10000 tons of alumina. The national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 94.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 84.01% [12][14]. Logic Analysis - Speculative sentiment cools, and the price is under pressure. The theoretical surplus expands, and the inventory has been increasing since June [15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure and oscillating, pay attention to cost support. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 10 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton at night. Aluminum ingot spot prices in different regions fell [19]. Important资讯 - China's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20000 tons to 514000 tons. The price law is being revised. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. Huafeng Aluminum plans to purchase at least 360000 tons of aluminum products from Shaanxi Non - ferrous Yulin New Materials Group [20][21]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors affect the market. Domestically, the inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the spread between months may narrow first and then widen [22][24]. Trading Strategy - No specific strategy provided in the content. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20055 yuan per ton at night. ADC12 alloy ingot spot prices in different regions fell [26]. Important资讯 - The weekly output of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 800 tons to 141600 tons, and the total inventory increased by 4600 tons to 132400 tons. The price law is being revised [27]. Logic Analysis - Supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and demand is affected by different types of orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [28]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spread trading for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [29]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 0.83% to $2805.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.31% to 22665 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1756 to 222600 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were between 22670 - 22775 yuan per ton, and the spot premium slightly increased [33]. Important资讯 - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 103700 tons. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, and the output of refined zinc is expected to increase. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating [34][36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can be held, set stop - profit points. - Arbitrage: Buy put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [36]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.15% to $2017.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16945 yuan per ton. Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2285 to 99700 lots. Spot prices in different regions had different quotations, and the market trading was light [38]. Important资讯 - SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 71700 tons. Guizhou Lukong Environmental Protection Technology's smelting system was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons of lead ingots. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [38][40]. Logic Analysis - The cost of recycled lead supports the price. The supply is affected by production inspections and losses, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has slightly improved [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable long positions can be held, beware of macro risks. - Arbitrage: Sell put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [43]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15230 per ton, and its inventory increased to 204036 tons. Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell to 122130 yuan per ton. Jinchuan nickel's premium increased to 2150 yuan per ton [42]. Important资讯 - Indonesia is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring a nickel smelter. A new nickel project in Indonesia is expected to start in Q4 2025, with an annual ore - processing target of 8 million tons [42][45]. Logic Analysis - The market atmosphere is weak, and the supply and demand of nickel are weak in July and August, with the price oscillating [45]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term follow the macro - atmosphere. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Sell deep out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel SS2509 contract fell to 12875 yuan per ton. Cold - rolled prices were 12550 - 12750 yuan per ton, and hot - rolled prices were 12300 - 12350 yuan per ton [48]. Important资讯 - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to drive the demand for stainless steel. A company plans to build a new stainless - steel slab continuous casting line with an annual output of 400000 tons [50]. Logic Analysis - The speculative atmosphere cools, and the demand is affected by tariffs and the off - season. The price is higher than the cost, and the market trades based on the macro - logic [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term return to the oscillation range. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [50]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures opened low, rose, and then hit the limit down. Spot prices generally weakened by 100 - 200 yuan per ton [52]. Important资讯 - There are rumors that the industry will hold an anti - involution meeting on August 4 [52]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, and the demand shows different trends. The price may fall in the medium - long term, but there may be a short - term rebound [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: May rebound in the short term, weak in the medium - long term. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for 11, 12 contracts/positive spread for 11, 10 contracts, participate in the butterfly strategy. - Options: Hold the previous protective put options [54]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures hit the limit down three times and then closed at 49405 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in different ranges [56]. Important资讯 - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [56]. Logic Analysis - The "anti - involution" sentiment affects the price. If the capacity - integration meeting has positive results, the long - term expectation may reverse [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate with a strategy of futures long positions + protective put options after the correction. - Arbitrage: Long polysilicon, short industrial silicon for the long - term; reverse spread for polysilicon far - month contracts [57]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The 2509 contract fell to 73120 yuan per ton, and the exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12276 tons. Spot prices increased [59]. Important资讯 - The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world and China showed growth trends [59]. Logic Analysis - The price limit - down was affected by news. The price range is 67000 - 83560 yuan per ton, and there may be a low opening [60]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term speculative atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Enterprises with long - term agreements can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [60]. Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 267310 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees showed different changes, and the market trading was light [63]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. The national industrial and information work conference was held [63]. Logic Analysis - Sino - US trade talks aim to extend the trade truce. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season [64]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price fluctuates with the market sentiment. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will not change significantly, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [3] - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,376 lots, down 5,605 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,614 lots, up 825 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, up 973 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,650 tons, down 2,625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.31 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, up 83 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, up 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 million tons, up 0.03 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [3] - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,182.14 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [3] - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,771.66 points, up 11.26 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles [3] - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump believes the Fed must cut interest rates this week [3] - Bangladesh wants to buy Boeing planes and hopes the US will lower tariffs; South Korea aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US; the US and the EU are discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits; Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs; Canada - US trade negotiations are tense; Chile expects copper tariff exemptions [3] - Trump is disappointed with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [3] 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead production has declined due to falling lead prices, and secondary lead supply is tight due to scarce raw materials and slow resumption of production [3] - The lead battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising, indicating slow demand [3] - Shanghai lead supply is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain stable, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 铜期货走弱，沪铜跌破趋势线，主因美元指数走强以及反内卷情绪消退带动抛售 增加，不过铜下方承接力较强，沪铜主力尾盘站上 7.9 万，近月结构由 C 转为平 水。日内现货跌 375 至 79075，升水跌 30 至 95，月末持货商抛售情绪强，周末社 库累库 0.61 至 12.03 万吨，本周国产到货增加或增加累库压力，LME0-3 为-53. ...

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6400 points for the first time [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.02% [3] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks mostly gained, with the Wind US Tech Seven Giants Index rising by 0.65%. Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding $30.734 billion to its market capitalization, approximately ¥220.605 billion [6][7] - Other tech stocks such as Nvidia, META, Amazon, and Apple also saw increases, while Microsoft and Google experienced slight declines [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.69%, with notable gains in stocks like Yipeng Energy (up over 27%) and Wangban Technology (up over 18%) [8] European Market - All three major European indices declined, with Germany's DAX down 1.02%, France's CAC40 down 0.43%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.43% [9] Commodities - The international gold price decreased, with spot gold trading at $3314.18 per ounce, down 0.66% [10][11] - In contrast, international crude oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.79% and 2.82%, respectively [12] Currency Market - The US dollar index surged by 1.02%, while the euro fell by 1.3% against the dollar, indicating a strong dollar performance [10]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.06%，报收 68.29 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 14180 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 15967 手至 53.82 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15411 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15543 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 6 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注重心更多在 | | | | 于宏观层面，美元指数低位震荡，7 月美联储议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息 | | | | 概率较大，关注预期是否会有变动，基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，郑棉期价日 | 宽幅震 | | | 内震荡走势。消息面，昨日商务部发言人称，中美将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日在瑞典举 | | | | 行会谈，关注谈判结果，或对棉价有新的驱动。近期郑棉驱动的主要因素是低进 | 荡 | | | 口、低库存的现 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook for both metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold has again exceeded the $3400 mark, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 785 yuan mark. Since July, the US dollar index has rebounded and showed a high - level decline yesterday, facing pressure at the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways - bullish. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The decline of the US dollar is beneficial to the gold price. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30 and the important US tariff time point on August 1 approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, gold has broken through the sideways high since July with strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the main contract price exceeding the 79,000 yuan mark. On Monday, it continued to increase positions and rise during the day, approaching the 80,000 yuan mark and maintaining a strong performance at night. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper has been weakening, in line with the macro - market feature of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is upward, and intraday is upward. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and international macro - economies has pushed up the copper price. Good US economic data last Thursday and the upcoming release of a growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries in China have led to a general rise in commodities. On the industrial level, with the continuous emergence of domestic macro - positives, industrial expectations may improve, and the inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly on Monday [1][5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材), it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and showing weak performance. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term. The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season, and the upward space is limited by the off - season pressure on the demand side. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and there are few bright spots both macro - economically and industrially [2]. Aluminum Ingots - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2]. - On July 10, 2024, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas in China was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory decreased in the short term due to more ingot casting in some areas and less arrival [2]. - The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].