Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone by closing above the 4000-point mark for the first time in 11 years, indicating a cautious yet optimistic market sentiment [1] Market Performance - On October 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 4000 points after a period of fluctuations, marking a notable achievement for the market [1] - Despite the index's rise, the average stock price has only returned to levels seen on October 9, suggesting that many stocks have not reached new highs [1] - Approximately 90% of stocks have not set new highs, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase rather than a strong upward trend [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a surge in attention and interest as the index surpasses 4000 points, with expectations of significant changes following the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] - The next trading day is seen as critical, with potential for volatility depending on market reactions to any positive news, emphasizing the importance of market support levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, with a notable decrease in trading volume indicating a cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - Financial technology stocks are undergoing adjustments, which may not necessarily be negative; this pullback could eliminate weak hands and create space for future breakthroughs [1] - The Fujian sector showed strong performance today, but investors are advised to remain calm as a divergence is likely tomorrow; focus should be on stocks with genuine sustainability rather than chasing highs [1] - The prevailing market sentiment is one of caution, primarily due to the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision, leading to a reasonable contraction in trading volume [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Overall market trends remain intact, with today's fluctuations seen as a preparatory phase ahead of the interest rate announcement; patience is encouraged to leverage any pullbacks for future gains [1] - The market is expected to continue its oscillation until the Federal Reserve's decision is announced, at which point clearer directional guidance will emerge [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the A - share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, and the trading volume of the two markets increased significantly. Different futures varieties had different price trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 27, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.40 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 3234.45 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index also showed strength, closing at 4716.02, a ring - up of 55.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On October 27, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1803.5, a ring - up of 14.2. Coke enterprises had difficulty replenishing stocks, intermediate - link purchases increased, and steel mills had a strong rigid demand for coke. Coal mine inventories decreased to the lowest point of the year, and coke inventories in coke enterprises and ports also decreased [3][5]. - Coking Coal: On October 27, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1276.4 yuan, a ring - up of 11.9. The domestic coking coal market was in a pattern of tight supply, supported demand, rising prices, and low inventory. Coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had production cuts, and Mongolian coal prices rose due to reduced port clearance [4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly lower on Monday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher supported by bargain - hunting buying. Sugar - making enterprises in Yunnan and Guangxi were preparing to start the new crushing season [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production increased year - on - year, and the synthetic rubber production also increased significantly [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated strongly. The market expected a downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and Brazilian soybean sowing progress exceeded expectations. Domestically, on October 27, the M2601 main contract closed at 2932 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The supply pressure was obvious, and the inventory was at a high level [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 27, the live pig futures price fluctuated strongly, with the LH2601 main contract closing at 12330 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.27%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted secondary fattening, and the government's reserve meat purchase plan and positive statements supported the market. However, the oversupply situation in October remained unchanged, and the room for continuous price increase was limited [8]. Palm Oil - On October 27, palm oil continued to fluctuate slightly at the lower edge of the range. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and the export volume also increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Shanghai Copper - The macro - environment was favorable, the supply was tight, and the technical form was good, so Shanghai copper was expected to continue its strong operation. However, high prices might suppress demand, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [10]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Xinjiang cotton picking progress had completed 70% [10]. Iron Ore - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a rise of 1.94% and a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume rebounded, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The iron water output continued to decline, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.03% and a closing price of 3295 yuan. The production pressure in November decreased, the inventory was reduced, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating state [11][12]. Logs - On October 27, the log futures price plummeted by 5%. The market expected an improvement in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the shipping price declined. The spot price was stable, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced [12]. Steel - On October 27, the rb2601 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation was good, but the traditional peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was difficult to increase. The short - term steel price was expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. Alumina - On October 27, the ao2601 closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply in November was expected to be sufficient, and the price might decline slightly, but the decline space was limited [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 27, the al2512 closed at 21360 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade negotiation released positive signals, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation supported the non - ferrous market. The demand showed a cooling trend, and the downstream mainly met the rigid demand [14].

Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The market rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points and approaching 4000 points. After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased, and the overall market risk preference rebounded. It is expected that the market may continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark is expected to be broken. The follow - up market strength depends on policy and market sentiment [1][2] Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Last week, the market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points, hitting a ten - year high and approaching 4000 points. Communication, electronics, and power equipment led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care led the losses [1] - Policy Impact: After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased. The "15th Five - Year Plan" re - emphasized "taking economic construction as the center" and the "2035 Vision Goals", indicating that stable growth will continue throughout the "15th Five - Year" period. It will also bring industrial upgrading and technological innovation, benefiting stock market speculation [1] - International Factors: China and the US have started negotiations in Malaysia. As the APEC meeting at the end of the month approaches, the market's expectation of trade relaxation has increased, boosting risk preference. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the expectation of a rate cut this month is dovish [1][2] - Future Market Expectation: Before the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the China - US APEC meeting, the market is expected to remain positive. It is expected that the market will continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark may be broken. The follow - up strength depends on policy and market sentiment [2] - Attention Factors: "15th Five - Year Plan", China - US summit meeting, Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4] - Trend Strategy: Buy on dips. The core operating ranges of IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 are 4509 - 4741 points, 2972 - 3109 points, 6995 - 7464 points, and 7111 - 7590 points respectively [4] - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5] Spot Market Review - Global Stock Index Performance: Last week, US stocks (Dow Jones +2.2%, S&P 500 +1.92%, Nasdaq +2.31%), European stocks (UK FTSE 100 +3.11%, German DAX +1.72%, French CAC40 +0.63%), and Asian - Pacific stocks (Nikkei 225 +3.61%, Hang Seng Index +3.62%) all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% [9][10][12] - Index Performance in 2025: Since 2025, major domestic indices such as the ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Small and Medium - cap Board Index have all risen [11] - Industry Performance in Index: In the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, most industries rose last week, with telecommunications, information, and industry sectors performing well [14] Stock Index Futures Market Review - Futures Contract Performance: Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [16][17] - Basis and Cross - variety Ratio: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio [21] Index Valuation Tracking - Valuation Data: As of October 24, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index was 14.56 times, and the PE (TTM) of the SSE 50 index was 12.31 times. The PE (TTM) of the CSI 500 index was 34.39 times, and the PE (TTM) of the CSI 1000 index was 47.02 times [22][23] Market Fundamentals Review - Fund - related Data: The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline in capital interest rates last week, and the net capital injection by the central bank [25][26][27]

铁矿石市场面临供应充裕、港口库存高企、需求提振有限的压力。在钢厂未实现大规模实质性减产前，产 业链矛盾难以缓解。待宏观事件落地后，市场将回归基本面主导，铁矿石价格预计继续承压运行。 【利多因素】 1.日均铁水产量仍在240万吨附近，表明钢厂的铁矿石的日耗需求并未出现断崖式下跌，提供了基本的需求托 底。 南华期货铁矿石周报 ——超季节性累库，价格承压运行 周甫翰 （投资咨询资格证号：Z0020173） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月24日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【利空因素】 1. "十五五"规划重心转向科技与消费，降低了对传统基建房地产（钢铁-铁矿需求的主要驱动力）的依赖。 2. 全球铁矿石发运量维持高位，四大矿山及非主流矿发运量均有所回升，年累计同比增量高达1900万吨，供 应端十分充沛。 3. 热卷库存超季节性持续累积，热卷面临高库存和出口利润萎缩的压力。 4. 钢厂利润大幅下探，钢厂减产负反馈压力不断积累。 5. 焦煤价格大涨进一步侵蚀本已低迷的钢厂利润，在利润低位的情况下，挤压铁矿石上方价格空间。 6. 铁矿石45港库存已升至1.44亿吨，近两 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices closed down 0.64% at $4098.35, with a significant intraday fluctuation of $157 [1] - Currently, gold is trading in a narrow range around $4118 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.71% at 46590.41 points, S&P 500 down 0.53% at 6699.40 points, and Nasdaq down 0.93% at 22740.40 points [2] Group 3: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, as reported by the U.S. Treasury [3] - This increase occurred just over two months after the debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - ADP Research has ceased providing employment data to the Federal Reserve, impacting the Fed's decision-making amid a government shutdown [5] - The Federal Reserve is considering a plan to significantly relax capital requirements for large banks, potentially increasing their capital by 3% to 7% [6] - The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [6] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative are set to meet with Chinese officials, amid concerns over potential export restrictions on U.S. software products to China [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the market is experiencing a cooling period after a surge in enthusiasm for certain sectors since early August [10] Group 6: International Sanctions - The U.S. has announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, coinciding with President Trump's cancellation of a meeting with President Putin [12][13] - The EU has also agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation after a rebound, with strong buying sentiment and anticipation of upcoming key information before the end of the month [1] Market Overview - After a rebound on Monday and Tuesday, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction on Wednesday, indicating a digestion and consolidation phase with a generally strong trend [1] - Despite a decline last Friday due to adjustments in overseas markets, the market has largely recovered, showing strong willingness from investors to hold and buy on dips [1] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events to watch include the "14th Five-Year Plan" focus areas and investment opportunities, the performance of leading tech companies in Q3 reports, the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate meeting, and the APEC leaders' summit in South Korea at the end of the month [1] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating clearer information and developments [1] Market Trends - The short-term market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with a strong bias, and is likely to become more active in November [1] - Recent market trends show a rotation in focus, with strong performance in dividend and undervalued sectors amid the overall market's consolidation [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the 30-day moving average on the daily chart and the 5-week moving average on the weekly chart are important indicators for assessing market strength [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court has denied President Trump's request to immediately remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook during the ongoing litigation, allowing her to remain in office until a hearing in January [1][2] - Cook, the first African American woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, was accused by Trump of fraud related to her property declarations, but lower courts found no evidence of misconduct [5] - The Supreme Court's previous rulings indicate that while the President has some authority over federal appointments, this does not extend to the unique structure of the Federal Reserve [2][5] Group 1 - The Supreme Court's decision allows Cook to continue her role at the Federal Reserve, which is significant given the upcoming monetary policy meetings [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process may be influenced by Cook's continued presence, especially with a high probability of a rate cut in October [5] - The legal battle highlights the complexities of presidential authority over independent agencies like the Federal Reserve, which operates under a distinct historical framework [2][5]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who will be forced to take unpaid leave [1][5] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of significant economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve [1][11][13] - The economic impact of the shutdown is projected to be around $7 billion in GDP loss per week, with potential long-term effects on investor and consumer confidence [1][16] Federal Employee Impact - Approximately 750,000 federal employees will be on unpaid leave, costing about $400 million in daily wages [1] - Essential services will continue to operate, but non-essential government projects, such as national parks, may face closures [1][5] - The financial strain on federal employees could lead to severe economic difficulties, as seen during the previous shutdown from 2018 to 2019 [5][11] Political Dynamics - The shutdown reflects ongoing political battles between the two parties, primarily centered around healthcare funding and the Affordable Care Act [9][10] - Both parties are using the shutdown as leverage to force concessions from each other, with Democrats seeking to restore nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding [9][10] - The political landscape has shifted, with both parties believing that a shutdown may be more beneficial to their interests compared to previous instances [9][10] Economic Data Release - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations will pause during the shutdown, leading to the postponement of various economic reports [11][12] - Key reports, including the September non-farm payroll and CPI, are scheduled for release but may be delayed due to the shutdown [12][13] Market Reactions - Historical data suggests that the stock market may experience short-term pressure during the shutdown, but typically rebounds in the months following the reopening [18] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise during the shutdown, as investor concerns about fiscal stability increase [20] - Gold prices tend to increase with the duration of the shutdown, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the market [23]