1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 会议强调，要适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办 法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 明年超长期特别国债规模预计跟今年持平或略有增长 NBD：这次中央经济工作会议提到，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。国际上有一个 3%赤字率警戒线的说法，您认为明年财政赤字率可能在什么范围？ 施正文：赤字率提高是实施更加积极的财政政策的一项重要内容。根据去年赤字率及当前经济形势判 断，2026年的赤字率预计不会低于4%，可能会维持在4%左右或略有提升。 2025年的经济形势达到预期，仍在恢复中，明年扩内需依旧需要财政支出持续发力。赤字率的提高意味 着可以有更充足的财力，政府就可以加大财政支出强度。而且，经济环境面临挑战的时候，我们还需 要"放水养鱼"，所以可能还会推出一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines key tasks and policy arrangements for 2026, emphasizing the need for economic potential exploration, policy support, and reform innovation to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate expected to be no lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to using fiscal tools to boost demand [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "more proactive" approach, with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain liquidity [6][7]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable financing environment [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies aimed at increasing residents' income and stabilizing investment [8]. - The conference emphasizes the need for a plan to boost urban and rural residents' income, aligning with the broader goal of enhancing consumption capacity [8]. - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing project implementation to stabilize investment levels [8]. Real Estate Market - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" identified as a key strategy for 2026 [10][11]. - Measures will include city-specific policies to control new supply and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][12]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing the market's ability to support technological innovation and the real economy [13][14]. - Reforms will include improving the adaptability of capital market systems and encouraging long-term investments [13][14]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a core strategy for fostering new economic momentum [15][16]. - These centers will leverage existing research and development resources to enhance China's competitiveness in global technology [15][16][17]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and reduce "involution" competition, aiming to enhance economic vitality and support high-quality development [18][19]. - A nationwide unified market construction regulation is proposed to address existing regulatory gaps and improve market efficiency [18]. International Trade and Investment - The conference calls for promoting more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, reinforcing China's commitment to multilateral trade systems [20][21]. - The focus will be on expanding high-standard free trade agreements and enhancing trade relations with partners [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to enhance economic potential and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected economic growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic stability [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][8]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of RRR cuts or interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable liquidity environment [8]. - The conference aims to guide financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [8]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies to implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income and stabilizing investment [10][11]. - The focus on consumer spending and investment as key drivers for domestic demand reflects a shift towards demand-side economic strategies [10]. Real Estate Market - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" as a key strategy, particularly in light of high inventory levels in many cities [13][14]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which aims to optimize market supply and meet housing needs [14]. Capital Market Reform - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms to enhance support for technological innovation and the real economy [15][17]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, with an emphasis on attracting long-term investment [15][17]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is aimed at fostering innovation and addressing global technological competition [19][20]. - The centers will focus on leveraging existing resources and enhancing collaboration to drive technological advancements and economic transformation [19][20]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and stimulate enterprise vitality through reforms, including the establishment of a unified national market [22][23]. - There is a commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with targeted policies to mitigate its negative effects on the economy [23]. International Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of signing more regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance cooperation and maintain a multilateral trade system [25][26]. - The goal is to expand high-standard free trade networks and facilitate trade and investment with partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP and other agreements [25][26].

2025.12. 07 本文字数：4020，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 2025年即将收尾，史上首次"更加积极"财政政策已然落地，推动了今年经济平稳运行。而明年财政 政策动向备受关注。 中央"十五五"规划建议已经要求未来五年"发挥积极财政政策作用"，2026年作为"十五五"规划第一 年，明年继续实施积极财政政策并无悬念。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家预计，综合考量明年经济社会形势，预计明年中国将继续实施扩张性财 政政策，也就是积极财政政策，且政策口径维持"更加积极"。具体来看，明年财政赤字率将不会低 于2025年的4%，并继续适度增加发行超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等，使得明年新增政府 债务规模超过2025年的约12万亿元，比如可能在13万亿元至16万亿元。此举将扩大财政支出，比 如全国一般公共预算支出明年有望超过30万亿元，发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的重要作 用。 当然除了财政政策总量上的扩张，专家普遍认为更重要的是优化财政支出结构，财政资金更加倾向 于"投资于人"，注重"惠民生和促消费"，使得投资与消费并重，更好地发挥财政资金使用效益，并 加快推进财税改革，深化零基预算改革， ...

为稳经济，明年财政政策仍需更加积极，加大发债扩大支出。 2025年即将收尾，史上首次"更加积极"财政政策已然落地，推动了今年经济平稳运行。而明年财政政策 动向备受关注。 中央"十五五"规划建议已经要求未来五年"发挥积极财政政策作用"，2026年作为"十五五"规划第一年， 明年继续实施积极财政政策并无悬念。 当然除了财政政策总量上的扩张，专家普遍认为更重要的是优化财政支出结构，财政资金更加倾向 于"投资于人"，注重"惠民生和促消费"，使得投资与消费并重，更好地发挥财政资金使用效益，并加快 推进财税改革，深化零基预算改革，增加地方自主财力等。 明年财政政策延续"更加积极" 复杂的内外部形势之下，明年经济增长依然承压，这就必然要求宏观政策发力，其中财政政策备受期 待。 中国自2008年国际金融危机之后，就一直采取积极财政政策，也就是扩张性财政政策，即在经济增长乏 力时，通过增加支出、扩大赤字、发行政府债券、增加转移支付等手段，刺激总需求，促进经济复苏和 增长的宏观调控政策。 其中2025年中央首次定调财政政策"更加积极"，而这就体现在财政赤字率从2024年的3%提高至4%的历 史高位，包括超长期特别国债、专项债等新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, the broad fiscal revenue declined slightly, and the broad fiscal expenditure decreased significantly. To meet the budget targets at the beginning of the year, the revenue side has little difficulty, while the expenditure may accelerate significantly at the end of the year [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Revenue Side - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In October, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, compared with 3.2% in the previous period. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.2% in October (previous value: 2.6%), tax revenue at 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), and non - tax revenue at - 33% (previous value: - 11.4%) [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In October, the four major taxes performed well, especially personal income tax. The growth rate of securities trading stamp duty declined due to the base effect. The year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax was 7.3% (previous value: 19.59%), personal income tax was 27.3% (previous value: 16.68%), domestic VAT was 7.2% (previous value: 7.60%), and domestic consumption tax was 4.4% (previous value: 3.83%). Real - estate - related taxes were - 1.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.4%), and vehicle purchase tax was - 16.8% (previous value: - 3.7%). Stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty were 9.4% and 17.5% year - on - year respectively, but declined month - on - month [2][11]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 18.4%, compared with 5.6% in the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 2.8% (previous value: - 0.5%). There was no significant impulse phenomenon. The annual budget target for government fund revenue in 2025 is a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the current gap is not large [1][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was - 9.78%, compared with 3.08% in the previous period, the lowest growth rate of the year. All expenditure items decreased year - on - year, with infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure declining most significantly, at - 25.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.2%). Energy conservation and environmental protection was - 11.8%, urban and rural communities was - 24.0%, agriculture, forestry and water was - 32.8%, and transportation was - 14.8% [3][17]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund expenditure was - 38.2%, compared with 0.4% in the previous period, also the lowest growth rate of the year [3][17]. - **Broad Fiscal Deficit**: From January to October, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 8.58 trillion yuan, down from 8.84 trillion yuan from January to September, indicating that the broad fiscal revenue exceeded expenditure in October. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the cumulative broad deficit rate in October was 6.1%, still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years [3][21]. Budget Completion - **Revenue Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.8%, exceeding the budget growth rate at the beginning of the year by 0.1%. From November to December, only a year - on - year decline of 3.7% is needed to meet the annual target. Government fund revenue needs to achieve a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% from November to December, and land transfer revenue may increase at the end of the year [4][24]. - **Expenditure Side**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 2.0%, while the annual budget growth rate was 4.4%. From November to December, the year - on - year growth rate needs to reach 12.9%, and the government fund expenditure needs to reach 40.3%. The expenditure growth rate may accelerate significantly in the next two months, and there may even be a rush of expenditure at the end of the year [4][24].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong economic growth in 2025, characterized by high-quality development and stable unemployment rates, alongside a steady increase in residents' income [1] Economic Growth and Structure - Economic growth is expected to be robust in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable [1] - Residents' income is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Manufacturing and Corporate Profits - Manufacturing sector is expected to see an improvement in business sentiment [1] - Corporate profits are set to recover at an accelerated pace, with high-tech manufacturing playing a significant role [1] Consumer and Production Prices - Consumer prices are expected to remain stable, while the decline in production prices is anticipated to narrow [1] - The M2-M1 spread is showing a significant convergence [1] Financing and Trade - The growth rate of social financing is declining [1] - Foreign trade is expected to accelerate, with ongoing diversification in the market [1] Fiscal Policy and Market Trends - Public budget revenues and expenditures are both expected to increase [1] - After a period of broad market gains, the stock market is expected to stabilize, while the bond market is anticipated to experience a slow upward trend [1] Outlook for 2026 - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected at around 5% [1] - There will be an optimization of industrial structure and enhancement of new technological momentum [1] - Average consumption growth is expected to be approximately 5% [1] - CPI is likely to return to positive territory, while PPI is expected to remain in negative territory [1] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize after hitting a bottom [1] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to continue expanding, maintaining around 4%, with the broad fiscal deficit rate increasing to approximately 8.3% [1]

Core Points - French Prime Minister Le Cornu announced the government's commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 5% of GDP by 2026, emphasizing the urgent need to cut public spending [1] - The government plans to reduce fiscal spending by approximately €35 billion in 2026, which is lower than the previous government's target of €43.8 billion [1] - The proposed deficit target of 5% is higher than the previous government's target of 4.6% [1] - Le Cornu announced a suspension of pension reform until January 2028, warning that this would increase fiscal pressure with additional spending expected to reach about €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027 [1] - The Prime Minister assured that the government would not bypass parliamentary voting on the budget and that the parliament would have the final say on the budget [1] Political Context - Two opposition parties, the far-right National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed, have proposed motions for the impeachment of Le Cornu's government, which will be reviewed by the National Assembly [2] - If the impeachment motion receives majority support, the government will be forced to resign [2] - Le Cornu was recently reappointed as Prime Minister by President Macron, with a new cabinet announced that includes 19 ministers and 15 ministerial representatives [2]

Core Insights - Moody's has maintained Côte d'Ivoire's sovereign rating at Ba2 with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic and fiscal development trajectory ahead of the presidential elections [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.6% for Côte d'Ivoire in 2025-2026, driven by the effective implementation of national development plans, increased private investment in strategic sectors (oil, minerals, air transport), and improved government governance [2] - Public fiscal revenue is expected to reach 18% of GDP by 2025, supported by high gold prices and increased oil production, with the fiscal deficit projected to decrease to 2.5% [2] Regional Context - The security situation in West Africa is expected to stabilize as three Sahel countries officially exit the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in 2024 [2] Risks - Despite positive economic indicators, Côte d'Ivoire faces ongoing political and social risks, including high youth unemployment, increasing regional development disparities, and weak education and healthcare social safety nets, which could lead to social unrest [2] - Moody's indicated that a further upgrade in the rating could be considered if Côte d'Ivoire continues to improve social indicators without increasing the fiscal deficit [2]