Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, particularly in the context of insufficient domestic demand and the need for economic growth support as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [1][6]. Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no lower than 4%, with some scholars suggesting it could rise to between 4.5% and 5% [2][5]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a more active fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure [2][6]. - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at approximately 56,600 billion yuan, with expectations that the 2026 deficit will exceed this amount due to GDP growth [3][4]. Government Debt and Expenditure - The broad central fiscal expenditure for 2025 includes an additional local government special bond limit of 44,000 billion yuan and a special long-term national bond issuance of 13,000 billion yuan [3][4]. - For 2026, the government is expected to continue issuing special bonds and increase the scale of new government debt to between 15.5 trillion and 16.3 trillion yuan, which will support economic stability and domestic demand [5][6]. Economic Challenges and Responses - The article notes ongoing economic challenges, including weak domestic demand and employment issues, which necessitate a robust fiscal response [6][7]. - The central government aims to address these challenges through increased fiscal spending, particularly in major projects and public services, to stimulate economic growth [6][7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The monetary policy for 2026 will remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.3 percentage points to lower financing costs and stimulate investment and consumption [7][8]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small enterprises, enhancing support for key economic sectors [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the necessity of maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% for 2026, as proposed in the Central Economic Work Conference [2][7] - The Central Economic Work Conference and the National Financial Work Conference both advocate for a more proactive fiscal policy, which includes maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure volume [2][3] - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at approximately 4%, amounting to 56,600 billion yuan, with a projected increase for 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Scholars suggest that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 could rise to between 4.5% and 5%, leading to a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan [5] - The narrow deficit rate, if reaching 4.5% to 5%, would correspond to a deficit scale of approximately 6.6 trillion to 7.4 trillion yuan [5] - The fiscal expenditure is expected to play a crucial role in addressing economic challenges, particularly in enhancing domestic demand and employment [6] Group 3 - The article highlights that the 2026 fiscal policy will need to be more aggressive to support the economic growth targets, especially in light of the ongoing challenges in domestic demand and local government finances [6][7] - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with anticipated interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth and stabilize prices [8] - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small enterprises [8]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts that China will implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut by 2026, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports, aiming for a 5% economic growth in 2025 [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investments in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - China is projected to achieve around 5% economic growth in 2025, aided by easing policies introduced since Q4 2024 and resilient export performance [1] Structural Transformation - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," where China will continue its structural transformation and maintain reasonable growth, with domestic demand, including consumption and investment, becoming the main driver of growth [1] Fiscal Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with HSBC estimating the fiscal deficit rate target for 2026 to remain at a relatively high level of 4% [1] - The issuance scale of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds is expected to be similar to that of 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [1] Monetary Policy - There is potential for a further interest rate cut of 20 basis points in 2026, along with a possible reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's broad fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first 11 months of the year, highlighting a slight decline in revenue but an increase in expenditure, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand [2][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In the first 11 months, broad fiscal revenue reached 24,079 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 0.2% [2]. - The general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year, slightly better than the initial forecast of 0.1% [5]. - The decline in government fund revenue was 4.9%, significantly lower than the expected growth of 0.7%, primarily due to a 10.7% drop in local government land use rights transfer income [6]. Fiscal Expenditure - Broad fiscal expenditure amounted to 34,066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.5%, aligning closely with the economic growth rate of around 5% [2][7]. - The expenditure growth rate was lower than the initial official forecast, which anticipated a 9.3% increase for the year [7]. - To maintain fiscal expenditure levels, the central government allowed local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter to support local financial capacity and major project construction [7]. Government Debt - Net financing from government bonds reached 1.315 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, an increase of 361 billion yuan year-on-year [8]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The fiscal expenditure structure has been optimized, with increased focus on social welfare and public services, such as a 1 billion yuan childcare subsidy [9]. - Experts predict that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 may be set around 4%, with an expected increase in government debt issuance to support fiscal spending [9].

Revenue Insights - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with November's revenue flat compared to the same month in 2024, marking a marginal decline from October's 3.2% growth[10] - Tax revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year for the same period, with November's growth at 2.8%, down from 8.6% in October, primarily due to a higher base effect[12] - Corporate income tax revenue saw a significant decline, turning negative year-on-year, while individual income tax and value-added tax revenues performed relatively well[12] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with November's expenditure declining by 3.7%, an improvement from October's 9.8% decline[15] - Central and local fiscal expenditures in November showed year-on-year growth rates of 4.9% and -5.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in central spending despite a contraction in local spending[15] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first eleven months, with November's revenue down by 15.8%, largely due to a slowdown in the real estate market[19] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with November's growth at 2.8%, a significant recovery from October's -38.2%[19] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains tight, with moderate revenue growth placing constraints on expenditure, necessitating a focus on enhancing internal demand for revenue improvement[20] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and improved fund efficiency[20]

Group 1 - Fiscal policy serves as a primary tool for macroeconomic regulation, utilizing budget, government bonds, and taxation to enhance both qualitative and quantitative economic growth [1] - The market anticipates that the fiscal deficit rate for next year will not be lower than 4%, maintaining the current fiscal expansion while avoiding rapid accumulation of debt risks [1][2] - The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 4% in 2025, marking the highest level in recent years, as the government aims to maintain policy continuity and boost market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise to meet the demands of key areas such as livelihood protection, employment stabilization, and domestic demand expansion, while also addressing the pressure of government debt repayments [2] - The increase in fiscal deficit will primarily be compensated by issuing government bonds, which will help optimize government debt structure and alleviate local government debt risks [2] - The expansion of fiscal spending will focus on enhancing public services and supporting consumption and technological innovation, with a notable emphasis on social welfare sectors such as education and healthcare [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 会议强调，要适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办 法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 明年超长期特别国债规模预计跟今年持平或略有增长 NBD：这次中央经济工作会议提到，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。国际上有一个 3%赤字率警戒线的说法，您认为明年财政赤字率可能在什么范围？ 施正文：赤字率提高是实施更加积极的财政政策的一项重要内容。根据去年赤字率及当前经济形势判 断，2026年的赤字率预计不会低于4%，可能会维持在4%左右或略有提升。 2025年的经济形势达到预期，仍在恢复中，明年扩内需依旧需要财政支出持续发力。赤字率的提高意味 着可以有更充足的财力，政府就可以加大财政支出强度。而且，经济环境面临挑战的时候，我们还需 要"放水养鱼"，所以可能还会推出一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines key tasks and policy arrangements for 2026, emphasizing the need for economic potential exploration, policy support, and reform innovation to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate expected to be no lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to using fiscal tools to boost demand [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "more proactive" approach, with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain liquidity [6][7]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable financing environment [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies aimed at increasing residents' income and stabilizing investment [8]. - The conference emphasizes the need for a plan to boost urban and rural residents' income, aligning with the broader goal of enhancing consumption capacity [8]. - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing project implementation to stabilize investment levels [8]. Real Estate Market - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" identified as a key strategy for 2026 [10][11]. - Measures will include city-specific policies to control new supply and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][12]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing the market's ability to support technological innovation and the real economy [13][14]. - Reforms will include improving the adaptability of capital market systems and encouraging long-term investments [13][14]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a core strategy for fostering new economic momentum [15][16]. - These centers will leverage existing research and development resources to enhance China's competitiveness in global technology [15][16][17]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and reduce "involution" competition, aiming to enhance economic vitality and support high-quality development [18][19]. - A nationwide unified market construction regulation is proposed to address existing regulatory gaps and improve market efficiency [18]. International Trade and Investment - The conference calls for promoting more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, reinforcing China's commitment to multilateral trade systems [20][21]. - The focus will be on expanding high-standard free trade agreements and enhancing trade relations with partners [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to enhance economic potential and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected economic growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic stability [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][8]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of RRR cuts or interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable liquidity environment [8]. - The conference aims to guide financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [8]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies to implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income and stabilizing investment [10][11]. - The focus on consumer spending and investment as key drivers for domestic demand reflects a shift towards demand-side economic strategies [10]. Real Estate Market - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" as a key strategy, particularly in light of high inventory levels in many cities [13][14]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which aims to optimize market supply and meet housing needs [14]. Capital Market Reform - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms to enhance support for technological innovation and the real economy [15][17]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, with an emphasis on attracting long-term investment [15][17]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is aimed at fostering innovation and addressing global technological competition [19][20]. - The centers will focus on leveraging existing resources and enhancing collaboration to drive technological advancements and economic transformation [19][20]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and stimulate enterprise vitality through reforms, including the establishment of a unified national market [22][23]. - There is a commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with targeted policies to mitigate its negative effects on the economy [23]. International Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of signing more regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance cooperation and maintain a multilateral trade system [25][26]. - The goal is to expand high-standard free trade networks and facilitate trade and investment with partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP and other agreements [25][26].