日本央行最新意见摘要表明，决策层对"落后于曲线"的风险持审慎态度，认为相关风险尚未显著上升， 但强调需及时落实政策。当前日本实际利率仍深陷负值区间，这成为央行推进政策调整的核心背景。 全体成员已达成共识，若未来经济增长与通胀符合预期，将继续沿逐步紧缩的路径加息。这一选择并非 激进调整，而是基于日本经济复苏韧性不足的现实——近三十年超宽松政策形成的惯性、国内消费疲软 以及企业信心薄弱，都使得激进紧缩可能带来风险，渐进调整成为兼顾多方的理性选择。 日元持续走弱与日本央行的政策取向形成呼应。首相高市早苗近期表态称，日元贬值有望为出口导向型 产业创造机遇，尤其可对冲美国关税对汽车行业的冲击。这贴合日本经济的核心特征——汽车、机械设 备等出口品类长期支撑经济增长，日元走弱可提升其海外价格竞争力，并增加企业海外收入的汇兑收 益。 日元贬值也会推高进口成本，加剧输入型通胀，这与日本央行通过加息抑制通胀的目标形成潜在冲突， 使日本在汇率调控与通胀管控之间陷入两难。 美国货币政策走向成为影响全球汇市及日美政策博弈的重要因素。特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联 储主席的消息推动美元走强。市场普遍解读此举预示美联储将转向更严格、更谨 ...

澳大利亚联储正面临一个令人不安的前景：在不到六个月前刚刚降息后，其本周可能将逆全球趋势而 行，掉头恢复加息以抑制复燃的通胀。 经济学家预计，澳洲联储将于周二将其现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%，隔夜指数掉期市场也强化了这 一观点。这一政策转向是由顽固的价格压力所驱动，而意外的失业率下降则加剧了这种压力。 "通胀是一个清晰而现实的危险，现在通过上调政策利率来应对这一危险是最恰当的反应，"GSFM的投 资策略师斯蒂芬·米勒表示。"若不这样做，很可能将导致未来不得不更激进地使用政策利率工具。" 澳洲联储的决议出台之际，全球货币政策路径正日益分化。美联储以及一些亚洲新兴经济体准备降息， 而欧元区很可能维持利率不变，日本则可能进一步收紧政策。 去年第三季度通胀意外上行后，市场对澳洲联储政策的预期在去年年底开始转变，促使董事会采取了更 鹰派的语调，行长米歇尔·布洛克几乎排除了进一步降息的可能性。尽管当时一些经济学家已开始预警2 月加息的风险，但多数人仍预期央行将长期按兵不动。 周一的数据显示，澳大利亚的招聘广告——一个前瞻性的就业指标——录得了自2022年2月以来最强劲 的月度增长。另一份数据则显示，澳大利亚1月份房价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing strength against major currencies, driven by a recovering UK economy and diverging monetary policies between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK economy shows unexpected recovery, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising from 51.4 to 53.9, the highest in 21 months, surpassing market expectations of 52.0 [2] - December retail sales increased by 0.4% year-on-year, rebounding significantly from November's -0.3%, while wage growth of 3.8% exceeds the inflation rate of 3.2%, indicating stable purchasing power [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in August-October 2025, the highest since 2021, with forecasts suggesting it may remain around 5.0% in 2026, potentially limiting economic recovery momentum [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% on December 18, 2025, marking the sixth cut since the easing cycle began in August 2024, with internal divisions among policymakers regarding further cuts [3] - Inflation showed signs of stickiness, with the CPI rising from a low of 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December, driven by increased tobacco taxes and holiday demand, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in February have dissipated, with predictions suggesting only 1-2 cuts throughout 2026, potentially delaying the first cut until after April [3] Group 3: Currency Trends - Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are enhancing the relative strength of the pound, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed exceeding 70% [4] - The pound is benefiting from a weaker dollar, with the dollar index hitting its lowest since October, which has contributed to the pound's strength against the dollar [4] - The pound's technical indicators show a bullish trend, with the price breaking above previous resistance levels and maintaining an upward trajectory [4][5] Group 4: Market Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the pound's trajectory for 2026, with optimistic forecasts suggesting it could reach 1.40 against the dollar by mid-year, while cautious predictions indicate a potential drop below 1.3450 by March [6] - Concerns about slowing economic growth and political uncertainties are prevalent, with predictions of GDP growth slowing to 1.0% in 2026, which could impact market confidence [6]

28日欧洲交易时段，全球央行增持黄金、多重地缘政治风险以及美国联邦政府可能再次"停摆"推高避险 需求，国际金价持续冲高，纽约黄金期货主力合约价格一度突破每盎司5300美元整数关口，再创盘中历 史新高，盘中最高触及每盎司5306美元。截至北京时间28日16时50分，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金 期货价格报每盎司5293.60美元，涨幅为4.15%。 美元指数27日在纽约汇市跌至近四年新低，是金价上行的主要原因之一。高盛外汇策略师指出，美元短 线走软的主要原因是，美国和日本政府释放了联合干预汇市的信号。展望今年全年，发达经济体货币政 策分化，可能导致美元进一步贬值。 近期，随着贵金属价格连创历史新高，美国华尔街大型金融机构纷纷上调黄金目标价，高盛预计国际金 价可能在今年年底触及每盎司5400美元的目标。高盛指出，黄金供应增长缓慢，而全球央行与私人投资 者因战略性目标或避险目的增持黄金，推动需求增长，导致金价屡创新高。高盛指出，未来，如果私营 机构增加黄金配置，金价可能涨至其目标价上方。 ...

2026年开年，澳元兑美元强势上行并刷新16个月新高，领跑G10货币。美澳货币政策分化、大宗商品走 强及美元走弱形成三重支撑，叠加澳经济韧性托底，多头动能充沛，市场聚焦后续通胀数据与央行政策 信号。 技术面多头趋势明确，中长期空间打开。周线形成倒置头肩底形态，均线多头排列，RSI达62.9未超 买，动能充足；日线突破新高后均线拐头向上，确认中期上行趋势，回调支撑较强。 关键点位：上方阻力为0.6931高点及0.70整数关口；下方支撑依次为0.6900、0.6800区间及0.6712九日 EMA均线。跌破0.6900或引发获利了结，稳守则延续强势。 澳元后续取决于三大变量：一是1月28日澳第四季度CPI数据，将主导加息预期；二是美联储会议纪要 与澳联储2月议息声明，影响利差格局；三是大宗商品价格及中国需求变化，或拖累澳元走势。 机构预判，2026年澳元兑美元汇率中枢上移至0.69，短期震荡于0.6850-0.6950，突破0.70可打开更大空 间。后续重点关注澳CPI、央行表态及大宗商品波动。 美联储2025年累计降息75个基点，当前利率3.5%-3.75%，市场预期2026年再降2-3次。这种"一紧一 松"格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movement - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a downward trend, breaking the key support level of 0.7752 and reaching a low of 0.7740, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The USD has faced selling pressure, with the exchange rate trading at 0.7767, reflecting a daily decline of 0.4358% [1]. - The CHF's safe-haven status is highlighted by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment regarding economic recovery, leading to increased demand for the CHF [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with expectations that this will remain until at least the second half of 2027, despite weak inflation indicators [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June, which narrows the interest rate differential and pressures the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. - Swiss inflation remains weak, with January CPI showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating mild deflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, with the price below the 0.78 level and no significant support levels below [2]. - Key support is identified at the 0.7740 low, and a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the 0.7700 mark [2]. - Resistance is seen at the 0.7800 level, which is crucial for any potential upward movement; failure to break above this level may hinder any rebound [2]. Group 4: Future Monitoring - Upcoming events to watch include the SNB's monetary policy meeting on March 19 and subsequent inflation and manufacturing data from Switzerland, as increased deflationary pressure could prompt a dovish shift in SNB policy [3]. - Monitoring of Federal Reserve officials' statements and US economic data is essential, as a rebound in the USD index could provide a temporary boost to the USD/CHF exchange rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a slight appreciation against the US dollar (USD), influenced by monetary policy divergence, oil price fluctuations, and trade agreement uncertainties, with short-term trends remaining unclear and medium-term appreciation potential constrained [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 22, 2026, the CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.7235, showing a minor increase of 0.0796% from the previous trading day [1]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has fluctuated from 1.3724 at the beginning of the year to a high of 1.3908, currently stabilizing in the 1.38-1.39 range [1]. - The exchange rate has shown a strong support level above 1.3800, with significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920 [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 2.25% in 2025 and signaled a pause in rate cuts, with expectations to maintain the rate in 2026 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 75 basis points, with market expectations for two more rate cuts before September 2026, creating a "looser US, stable Canada" policy environment [3]. - There is a divergence in long-term policy outlooks among institutions, with some predicting no changes while others foresee potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Impact - The CAD is closely tied to oil prices, with current weak oil prices being a significant factor suppressing the CAD [3]. - WTI crude oil prices are around $59.30, with concerns over US and European trade affecting global energy consumption and, consequently, the CAD [3]. - Long-term factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks may support oil prices, potentially benefiting the CAD [3]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Economic Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA review in summer 2026 pose risks to the CAD, as changes in trade agreements could impact Canadian exports and the economy [4]. - Canadian exports have been negatively affected by increased tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 5.9% by October 2025, leading to a contraction in export growth [4]. - The Canadian economy shows resilience in consumer spending and labor market improvements, but challenges remain, including weak business investment and stagnant population growth [4]. Group 5: Long-term Forecasts - Institutions generally predict limited appreciation potential for the CAD, with forecasts suggesting a gradual strengthening to around 1.35 (CAD/USD 0.7407) in 2026, primarily in the first half of the year [5]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace will reinforce the USD's relative strength, limiting the CAD's appreciation potential [5].

来源：21世纪经济报道 | | | | | Year over Year | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | Difference from | | | | Estimate | Projections | | WEO Proje | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 | | Euro Area 3/ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 | | France | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | | Italv | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | ...

全球避险情绪波动为汇率添扰。近期中东局势紧张、特朗普对伊朗发军事警告及欧洲强化北极军事存在 的讨论，推升避险需求，作为传统避险货币的瑞郎吸引力上升，1月13日汇率一度跌至0.7970(单日跌幅 0.55%)。但当前避险情绪整体温和，无大规模恐慌性资金流动，既限制瑞郎升值空间，也令美元兑瑞郎 维持窄幅震荡。 技术面看，美元兑瑞郎中长期弱势未改，日线MACD持续运行于零轴下方，下行动能未消。14日RSI指 标约48，处于中性区间，多空暂时平衡；小时级别布林带收口，短期突破动能不足。支撑位方面，前期 低点0.7930为首要支撑，下方0.7860-0.7830为强支撑带；阻力端关注0.7950-0.7960(20日均线附近)及 0.8020-0.8030区间，突破后或冲击0.8060关键位。 后续焦点：数据与政策信号定方向 短期需重点关注美国12月CPI及核心PCE数据：数据走强或缓解激进降息预期，为美元提供支撑；数据 疲软则强化宽松预期，推动汇价向支撑区间回落。同时，瑞士12月CPI数据将影响瑞郎走势，若通缩压 力升温引发降息预期，可能扭转瑞郎短期态势。 中长期核心变量仍是两国央行政策。机构预测，瑞士央行大概率维持 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a steady stance on monetary policy, keeping key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.40% until June 2025 [1] - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that current interest rates are at an "appropriate level," with recent economic data aligning with the bank's forecasts [1] - Eurozone inflation is projected to be 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and rebound to 2.0% in 2028, indicating effective control over inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Eurozone economic growth is expected to be 1.4% in 2025, higher than previous forecasts, followed by a slowdown to 1.2% in 2026, and a rebound to 1.4% in 2027-2028, with domestic demand as the main growth driver [1] - Consumer expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months have weakened to -1.3%, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding short-term economic prospects [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact - Ongoing geopolitical events, such as the Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, are critical variables affecting the Eurozone economy, potentially suppressing corporate investment and increasing household savings [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the ECB may lead to a stronger euro, which could weaken the Eurozone's export competitiveness [2] Group 4: Consumer Expectations - Consumer expectations for nominal income growth remain stable at 1.2%, while consumption growth expectations have slightly decreased to 3.4%, with lower-income groups showing higher consumption expectations than higher-income groups [3] - The unemployment rate expectation for the next 12 months has slightly decreased to 10.9%, indicating a stable labor market that supports economic recovery [3] - Expectations for rising housing prices and mortgage rates have declined, which may dampen activity in the real estate market and become a potential drag on consumption and investment [3]