2025年年末，美元兑瑞郎延续弱势震荡格局，截至12月30日亚市早盘，汇价交投于0.7895附近，距离本 月触及的三个月低点0.7860仅一步之遥。全年维度来看，美元兑瑞郎累计跌幅已超过10%，在主要非美 货币对中表现突出，市场对其2026年进一步下探的预期持续升温。 近期新年假期临近导致全球金融市场交投清淡，美元兑瑞郎波动幅度收窄，但整体弱势基调未改。12月 29日欧洲盘时段，汇价在0.7880-0.7920区间窄幅震荡，虽因RSI指标进入超卖区间出现短暂技术性反 弹，但缺乏持续动能支撑。短期来看，上方关键阻力位集中在0.7960(20日均线位置)，下方支撑则位于 0.7860-0.7830区间，若跌破0.7830，后续可能进一步下探0.7770一线。 美元兑瑞郎持续走弱的核心，在于美联储与瑞士央行的货币政策分化及立场差异。美联储2025年累计降 息75个基点，将联邦基金利率降至3.50%-3.75%，CME FedWatch工具显示，2026年降息50个基点的概率 高达73.3%，尽管12月议息会议反对票激增预示降息步伐可能放缓，但宽松基调未改。反观瑞士央行， 连续两次维持基准利率在0%不变，行长明确表态 ...

澳大利亚国内经济韧性为鹰派政策提供底气。数据显示，10月家庭支出环比增1.3%超预期，三季度 GDP同比增长2.1%，创下2023年三季度以来最快增速，新私人需求与商业投资表现亮眼，驱动力已从 传统矿业延伸至数据中心、民用航空等新兴领域。就业市场保持稳健，11月失业率稳定在4.3%的低 位，虽就业人数小幅减少，但整体市场健康度良好。通胀黏性持续凸显成为澳联储收紧政策的重要依 据，10月整体通胀率从3.6%回升至3.8%，始终高于2%-3%的政策目标区间，12月消费者通胀预期反弹 至4.7%，进一步强化加息预期。 展望后市，澳元兑美元走势将聚焦三大核心线索。其一，澳大利亚通胀数据至关重要，1月底公布的第 四季度CPI数据若超预期走高，将为澳联储2月加息提供直接依据，进一步为澳元添能；其二，澳联储 与美联储政策动向需紧密跟踪，两者加息与降息节奏的差异将直接决定利差格局，美联储1月FOMC会 议纪要将为其政策路径提供关键线索；其三，大宗商品价格走势及中国经济复苏进度将直接关联澳大利 亚出口表现，进而影响澳元基本面支撑。技术面来看，汇价突破14个月高点后上行空间打开，关键阻力 关注0.6800整数关口，回调支撑集中在 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月30日电（王菁）2025年的全球债券市场，在主要央行货币政策从"协同"走向"分裂"的宏大叙事中，度过了惊心动魄的一年。 作为全球资产定价的基石，美国、德国、英国及日本国债的收益率曲线剧烈波动，不仅反映了投资者对主要经济体增长与通胀预期的博弈，更深刻揭示了市 场对财政可持续性的空前担忧。这一年，债市交易的核心逻辑，已从追逐利率下行趋势，彻底转向对"期限溢价"和"国家风险"的艰难定价。 货币政策分化：全球债市波动之源 2025年，全球主要央行的政策路径呈现出金融危机后最为明显的分化格局，这构成了债券市场波动的核心宏观背景。 美联储货币政策转向贯穿全年，成为主导美债市场情绪的"指挥棒"。年初，美债尚在交易"更高更久"的利率预期，但美国一季度通胀数据连续超预期降温， 加之就业市场显现裂痕，促使美联储于6月启动本轮周期首次降息。随后，在经济增长韧性犹存与通胀反复的拉锯中，美联储采取了"走一步看一步"的谨慎 策略，至年末累计降息75个基点。高盛首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）称，"美联储的降息步伐是克制且数据依赖的，这抑制了市场对激进宽松的幻 想，使美债收益率始终保有韧性。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly against the US dollar (USD), reaching a nearly 14-month high, driven by divergent monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA has maintained its policy interest rate, emphasizing upward inflation risks and the possibility of further tightening, which has ended market expectations for rate cuts [1]. - In contrast, the Fed has implemented multiple rate cuts, maintaining a relatively low policy rate, with market expectations leaning towards continued easing in the future [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy shows resilience, with strong private demand and business investment, and inflation levels approaching the upper target range, providing a solid foundation for policy stability or tightening [1]. - The weakening of the USD, alongside structural trends, has diminished its attractiveness, indirectly supporting the AUD's rise [2]. Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trade - The AUD benefits from recovering commodity prices and improved demand from China, Australia's largest trading partner, enhancing export prospects [2]. - Prices for key Australian exports like iron ore and coal have stabilized, while precious and industrial metal prices have surged, positively impacting Australia's trade balance [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical indicators and institutional forecasts suggest a clear upward trend for the AUD, with expectations for further gains if the current strength is maintained [3]. - Major international banks predict that the AUD will continue to rise, with an overall upward shift in its trading range [3]. Group 5: Risks and Future Outlook - Domestic consumption in Australia shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer confidence and mixed employment market signals, which may hinder economic recovery [3]. - The potential for an overly strong AUD could weaken the competitiveness of non-resource exports, while external risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may lead to volatility [3]. - Investors should monitor Australian inflation data and the Fed's future rate-cutting path, as well as commodity price fluctuations and China's economic recovery, to gauge the AUD's trajectory [3].

期货公司观点 广发期货： 近期贵金属板块集体大涨，国际黄金突破4500美元/盎司，国内沪金创新高，沪银暴涨，铂金、钯金暴 涨。很大一部分原因在于美元指数的疲软。 美联储降息及鸽派政策预期是驱动美元指数近期持续下跌的核心因素。2025年美联储于下半年步入降息 周期，12月10日完成年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率区间降至3.50%-3.75%，当日美元指数即大跌 0.43%，创下近三个月最大单日跌幅。降息直接压低了美债收益率，显著削弱了美元资产的吸引力，而 美联储主席鲍威尔的表态及点阵图所释放的2026年可能继续降息的信号，进一步强化了市场的宽松预 期，促使资金加速撤离美元。此外，市场对2026年美联储领导层可能出现鸽派更迭、货币政策独立性受 政治干预的担忧，加剧了对美元长期信用的疑虑，进一步放大了美元的贬值压力。与此同时，美国经济 基本面的持续恶化构成了美元下跌的重要支撑，就业市场显著降温，11月失业率升至4.6%，创下2021 年10月以来的新高，非农新增就业人数大幅减少且前期数据下修，薪资增速同步放缓；经济增长动能明 显走弱，12月制造业PMI初值跌至五个月新低，服务业与综合PMI同步下滑，市场对美国经济衰 ...

12月24日，澳元兑美元延续近期上行态势，亚洲交易时段盘中最高触及0.6713，截至发稿报0.6711，较 前一交易日上涨0.0012，日内涨幅0.1642%。年内以来，在澳储行政策立场偏鹰、美联储持续宽松的格 局下，澳元兑美元累计涨幅显著，核心驱动源于澳美货币政策分化，叠加商品价格回暖等因素共振。 澳储行的鹰派基调成为澳元走强的关键支撑。12月，澳储行如期维持政策利率在3.6%不变，行长 Bullock明确表态无需更多降息，未来可能延续观望或加息立场。这一表态显著提升市场对其明年加息 的预期，押注概率升至三成以上，推动澳债收益率走高。政策延续的背后，是澳大利亚经济的韧性与潜 在通胀压力：内需表现强于预期，虽面临productivity下滑带来的通胀隐忧，但央行强调需更长时间评估 通胀持续性，为政策稳定乃至收紧提供基础。 机构普遍看好澳元兑美元后续表现，对华态度偏向积极。华侨银行建议逢低买入澳元，并预测其2026年 或跑赢其他主要货币。从技术面来看，澳元兑美元近期站稳0.67关口后震荡上行，下方关键支撑集中在 0.6695-0.6700区间，若能守住该区间，上行趋势有望延续；上方阻力重点关注0.6750关口， ...

机构对美元兑瑞郎后续走势判断存在分歧，但整体偏向中长期弱势。渣打银行指出，随着美元空头头寸 逐步平仓，汇价可能出现短期技术性反弹，初步阻力位在0.8060，强阻力位在0.8200。从技术面来看， 美元兑瑞郎近期持续在0.79-0.80区间低位震荡，下方支撑位聚焦0.7870(10月以来低点)，若跌破该水 平，可能进一步打开下行空间。技术指标显示，空头动能仍占主导，短期反弹空间有限。 瑞士央行的政策立场成为瑞郎走强的关键支撑。12月11日，瑞士央行召开货币政策会议，连续第二次维 持政策利率在0%不变，符合市场普遍预期。尽管当前瑞士面临显著通缩压力——11月CPI同比涨幅降至 0%，触及央行0%-2%目标区间下限，且央行已将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，但行长明确表态 回归负利率的门槛极高，削弱了市场对激进宽松的预期。此次政策延续的背后，是瑞士经济的分化韧 性：第三季度GDP虽受制药行业拖累出现收缩，但制造业与服务业增加值小幅增长形成对冲，央行预计 2025年GDP增速略低于1.5%，为政策稳定提供了基础。 与瑞士央行的谨慎稳定形成鲜明对比，美联储的持续宽松进一步加剧美瑞政策背离，压制美元兑瑞郎走 ...

Group 1 - The British pound stabilized around 1.3405 against the US dollar after a three-day decline, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish factors [1] - The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%, marking the lowest level in nearly three years, with a 5:4 voting result [1] - The Bank of England's decision reflects a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency for future rate changes, suggesting the current easing cycle may be nearing its end [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the UK Q3 GDP data release, with investors reducing directional bets to avoid volatility [2] - Technical analysis shows the GBP/USD pair has established support around 1.3300, with resistance levels between 1.3420 and 1.3450 [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve is expected to be a key driver for the exchange rate in the short term [2]

2025年全球主要央行继续实施货币宽松政策，但不少发达经济体货币宽松已至尾声，普遍"踩刹 车"的趋势日益清晰。未来，在全球经济"韧性修复"与"风险犹存"的博弈中，主要经济体货币政策或呈 现出差异化的审慎调整态势。面对"弱增长+缓通胀"格局，各国央行在政策工具箱中艰难寻求平衡。 部分央行降息步伐趋于放缓 2025年12月10日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，这是美 联储自2025年9月以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。2025年美 联储已累计降息75个基点。 美联储在最近一次降息后对其未来政策路径给出了"模糊的前景"。分析人士指出，随着其他发达经 济体暂停或结束宽松周期，而某些国家央行甚至准备加息，美联储未来若继续降息，则可能陷入"独自 行动"的境地，这将重塑全球资本流动和资产定价的逻辑。 目前，美国滞胀风险与股市泡沫风险并存，若美联储因政治压力激进降息，可能加剧科技股过热或 通胀压力；同时，美联储独立性受损可能动摇美元信誉，加速货币体系多元化进程。此外，全球风险管 理体系需要适应资本流动波动和政策不确定性，防范热钱快进快出对新兴 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the United States, with Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% while the US Federal Reserve lowered rates to 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting differing economic conditions and policy goals [1][3] - Japan's interest rate hike aims to escape a 30-year deflationary shadow, with core CPI rising 3.0% in November, marking 51 consecutive months of increase, and a positive cycle of "prices-wages-consumption" beginning to form [3][4] - The US Federal Reserve's rate cut is a response to cooling inflation and economic pressures, with core CPI in November dropping to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, and unemployment rising to 4.4% [3][4] Group 2 - Market concerns about potential global repercussions from Japan's rate hike did not materialize, as the market showed resilience with controlled volatility, evidenced by the Nikkei 225 index only dropping 0.3% and the S&P 500 index rising 0.2% [4][5] - The global yen carry trade, valued at $19.2 trillion, did not trigger a market crash, as investors had already priced in the rate hike, with a 94% expectation of the increase before it occurred [4][5] - The US and Japan's monetary policies are synchronized in a way that avoids overlapping shocks, with the Fed's bond purchases and Japan's market support stabilizing global liquidity [6][9] Group 3 - Emerging markets have shown improved resilience against capital outflows, with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia intervening in foreign exchange markets to stabilize their currencies [8] - The overall market outlook suggests that while the risk of a financial storm has passed, global capital restructuring will continue, indicating a shift in asset pricing and capital flows [9][10] - Analysts expect the "Santa Claus rally" in the S&P 500 to continue, driven by inflation data and corporate earnings, while cautioning about potential volatility in cryptocurrencies and high-leverage derivatives [10]