1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank focuses on maintaining a reasonable interest rate ratio to prevent financial risks and improve the interest rate transmission system. Four groups of interest rate ratios are analyzed to guide bond market investors [2][12][14]. - In the bond market strategy, it is advisable to continue to explore alpha opportunities and wait for the year - end front - running market. Although year - end front - running by funds may weaken, institutions such as banks, insurance, and wealth management still have bond allocation needs [4][5]. - The bond market lacked a trading theme in the review period, with its trend following the stock market and yields fluctuating slightly around 1.8% [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 How to Understand the Central Bank's Interest Rate Ratio? 3.1.1 Why Does the Central Bank Focus on a Reasonable Interest Rate Ratio? - Low - interest environments can lead to "involution" in the financial industry, and an imbalanced interest rate ratio may trigger financial risks. For example, in early 2025, the bond market's over - anticipation of policy rate cuts led to an imbalance between the 10 - year Treasury yield and financial institutions' liability costs [12][13][14]. - A reasonable interest rate ratio is crucial for improving the central bank's interest rate transmission system. Since 2024, the central bank has reformed its monetary policy framework, emphasizing the importance of interest rate ratio in policy transmission and correcting banks' irrational competition [14]. 3.1.2 Clarifying Four Groups of Interest Rate Ratios - **Central Bank Policy Rates and Market Rates**: Policy rates are transmitted to money, bond, and loan markets. Since 2024, the central bank has strengthened its control over the money market, with DR001 fluctuating around the policy rate and DR007 about 10bp higher. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to range from OMO + 40bp to OMO + 70bp [15][17][20]. - **Commercial Banks' Asset and Liability Interest Rates**: The central bank emphasizes the balance between banks' liability costs and asset yields. From the end of 2022 to June 2025, deposit rates decreased less than loan rates, causing net interest margin compression. Maintaining a stable net interest margin can expand the central bank's counter - cyclical adjustment space [25][26]. - **Different Types of Asset Yields**: In asset allocation, funds flow to higher - return assets. The central bank prohibits loans with after - tax rates lower than those of Treasury bonds of the same term. Banks also consider tax and capital occupation when comparing assets [32]. - **Bond Asset Interest Rates of Different Terms and Risks**: Term spreads and credit spreads are important indicators for measuring the effectiveness of the bond market pricing mechanism. The central bank may focus on these spreads when managing market interest rates [40]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Continue to Explore Alpha in the Short Term and Wait for the Year - End Front - Running Market 3.2.1 How to View the Year - End Institutional Allocation Market? - **Banks**: With less bond supply at the year - end, weakening credit demand, and limited pressure to realize floating profits, banks may still have an active demand for bond allocation. In 2025, bank bond - holding growth has rebounded, and some banks may have a need to replenish their bond portfolios [44]. - **Insurance**: After the reduction of the预定 interest rate in Q3 2025, insurance premium growth has recovered. Although equity market prosperity has affected bond allocation, long - term bonds are still attractive, and insurance may still have bond - buying demand at the year - end [54]. - **Wealth Management**: "Deposit migration" supports the scale of wealth management products. The scale of bank wealth management has increased, and the bond - buying intensity has also risen, which is conducive to the year - end front - running market [60]. - **Funds**: Based on the expectation of monetary easing, funds still have a tendency to front - run at the year - end, but the intensity may weaken due to limited expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5]. 3.2.2 Strategy: Continue to Explore Alpha in the Short Term and Wait for the Year - End Front - Running Market - Before the implementation of the new fund sales regulations, the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate around 1.8%. After the regulations are implemented, the year - end allocation market may drive the yield down slightly [67]. - The 10 - year Treasury is in a volatile market, and the alpha exploration strategy is in its second half. Currently, 3 - 5 - year policy - financial bonds still have room for spread exploration, while the exploration space for 8 - 10 - year local bonds is limited. Attention can be paid to 7 - year China Development Bank bonds and long - term bonds after the supply peak in November [69][72]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market Lacks a Trading Theme and Fluctuates Slightly with the Stock Market - **Overall Market Performance**: In the second week of November, the bond market lacked a trading theme, with its trend following the stock market. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury fluctuated around 1.8%, with a daily fluctuation of less than 1BP [10]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted large - scale net OMO injections, and the funding situation remained balanced. The weighted average prices of DR001 and DR007 increased, and the issuance price of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit also rose [11]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [85][87][88]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of Treasury bonds increased slightly, while the long - end yields decreased slightly. The long - end performance of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds was better than the short - end [83].

Economic Overview - In early November, the first batch of Q4 fundamental data showed inflation recovery but other indicators like credit, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales were below expectations, highlighting a "weak reality" challenge[1] - The central bank has signaled a cautious "loose monetary" stance, indicating that the marginal effectiveness of further easing has declined significantly[1] Monetary Policy Adaptation - From 2022 to 2025, the central bank's approach has shifted from "preemptive" to "reactive," with rate cuts occurring after risk confirmation rather than before[2] - Current economic conditions suggest that industrial value-added and service production indices need to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in November-December to offset October's slowdown and meet the annual growth target of 5%[2] Bond Market Strategy - In the short term, the bond market is expected to focus on spread opportunities until a clear direction in interest rates emerges, prioritizing the relative value between different bond types[3] - The expectation for "loose monetary" policy to continue is still present, with potential rate cuts anticipated at the end of the year or early next year[3] Financial Product Trends - The scale of financial products saw a slight decrease of 307 billion yuan, bringing the total to 33.36 trillion yuan, reflecting typical seasonal fluctuations[29] - The proportion of negative returns in financial products has decreased, with the overall negative return rate dropping to 1.77% for the past week[36] Leverage and Risk Indicators - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market has decreased from 107.53% to 107.08%, indicating a tightening of leverage conditions[55] - The average leverage level for non-bank institutions also fell from 113.22% to 112.18%, suggesting a broader trend of deleveraging[55]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's 7-day OMO net injection this week was 626.2 billion yuan, with a gradual easing of the funding environment after a spike in rates earlier in the week[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.53 trillion yuan to 7.44 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in overall market activity[3] - The new funding gap index rose to -113.5 on Tuesday, reflecting fluctuations in liquidity conditions throughout the week[3] Financial Data Overview - In October, the excess reserve ratio fell by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%[21] - New social financing in October was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 1.41 trillion yuan, with a notable decline in credit and government bond financing[24] - The M2 growth rate decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% in October, influenced by a drop in bank bond investment scale[24] Government Debt and Financing - The upcoming government bond payment scale is set at 333 billion yuan, with total new general bonds issued this year reaching 702.6 billion yuan and special bonds at 4.1492 trillion yuan[5] - The expected net financing scale for November's government bonds is approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of about 630 billion yuan compared to October[5] Market Reactions and Expectations - The central bank's proactive stance on monetary policy adjustments suggests a potential interest rate cut by Q1 2026, responding to the current economic environment[5] - The financial market's response to the recent monetary policy report indicates a cautious optimism, with expectations for continued support for the real economy despite potential risks[5]

Market Review - Global stock indices showed divergence this week, with European, Brazilian, and Indian indices rising, while Chinese and American tech stocks declined. The Shanghai Composite Index continued its narrow fluctuation, with major broad indices generally adjusting. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a focus on existing stock games. Growth leaders fell while small-cap stocks rose, with the micro-cap index increasing by 4.11% [1][2] - In terms of sector performance, the TMT, machinery, and military sectors saw the largest declines, while precious metals and copper prices rose, and domestic double焦 prices weakened [1][2] Market Outlook - The core theme for November remains "small-cap stocks + thematic investment." The recent pullback in Chinese and American tech stocks is attributed to tight overseas liquidity and concerns over AI bubbles. Future attention will be on U.S. economic data and changes in December rate cut expectations. The current A-share market is primarily focused on existing stock games, with financing and southbound trading showing a "high-low cut" trend. The performance benchmark for public funds is expected to curb issues like style drift and short-term ranking chasing, potentially weakening extreme institutional clustering [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The domestic economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5% for the year, despite a weakening trend in both supply and demand in October. Industrial added value growth was 6.1%, continuing to decline. Investment in narrow infrastructure turned negative, and real estate development investment and sales areas also saw significant declines. Retail sales growth was only 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline, particularly in major consumer goods. However, corporate earnings are stabilizing, and with PPI growth expected to turn positive next year, the potential for profit improvement in certain sectors is anticipated [3][4] Macro Policy - Future policy observations will focus on the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank has reiterated "cross-cycle adjustment," signaling a balance between long-term goals and supportive monetary policy. The third-quarter monetary policy report indicates that the national economy is progressing steadily, with a solid foundation for achieving annual targets. The central bank's focus is shifting towards supporting policies that consider long-term objectives [4] Funding Dynamics - Since November, market style has shifted, with tech leaders retreating and small-cap stocks outperforming. This is due to concerns over the AI bubble affecting tech sentiment in A-shares. Financing transactions in sectors like semiconductors and communication equipment have seen net selling since November. Southbound funds have favored banks and oil sectors, leading to a phase where value stocks outperform tech stocks. Recent guidelines from the fund industry association aim to curb style drift and extreme clustering among funds, prompting some capital to migrate towards underweight sectors [5][6] Industry Configuration - Focus on "14th Five-Year Plan" related thematic investments, such as energy storage, batteries, domestic substitution, and new materials. Attention should also be given to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" trends, such as chemicals, and the guidance signals from Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals to A-shares [5]

其他热点还有：10月主要经济金融数据出炉，美国政府"停摆"暂时结束 促民间投资13条发布 国务院办公厅10日发布的《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》，从扩大准入、打通堵点、强化 保障等方面，提出13项举措。 扩大准入方面，对需报国家审批（核准）的具有一定收益的铁路、核电等重点领域项目，鼓励支持民间 资本参与并明确持股比例等要求；对各地方规模较小、具有盈利空间的城市基础设施领域新建项目，鼓 励民间资本参与建设运营。 国家统计局14日发布的数据显示，10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，增速较9月放缓1.6个百 分点。 服务消费成为重要增长点。10月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，较9月小幅回落0.1个百分点。 1~10月份，服务零售额增长5.3%。比1~9月份加快0.1个百分点，高于同期商品零售额增速0.9个百分 点。 1~10月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）408914亿元，同比下降1.7%。其中，民间固定资产投资同 比下降4.5%，房地产开发投资同比下降了14.7%， 打通堵点方面，鼓励支持民营企业加快建设一批具有较强行业带动力的重大中试平台、深入实施中小企 业数字化赋能专项行动等务实 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of active fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and economic development, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has recognized the effectiveness of active fiscal policies in recent years, highlighting a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure, which is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over the past five years [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues, thereby boosting long-term development potential [3][4] - The focus will be on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][6] - The Ministry aims to innovate fiscal tools, such as long-term special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize expanding domestic demand, with strategies to boost consumption and effective investment, while also promoting a unified national market [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance will work on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing fiscal management, including zero-based budgeting reforms to improve fund utilization [9] - There will be a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies, as well as strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in China's economic development, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" periods, highlighting the need for innovative reforms and effective macroeconomic management to support modernization and address complex domestic and international challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Achievements of Fiscal Policy - Since the beginning of the new era, China's fiscal policy has been adjusted in response to changing circumstances, leading to significant achievements in economic recovery and modernization efforts [2]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [2][4]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The fiscal policy will focus on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues while promoting long-term development potential [3][4]. - Emphasis will be placed on the synergy between supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support a modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][5]. - The government will innovate fiscal tools, such as ultra-long special bonds and fiscal subsidies, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve macroeconomic management [3][8]. Group 3: Expanding Domestic Demand - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a key task, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and effective investment [6][7]. - Strategies include enhancing consumer spending through subsidies and tax adjustments, as well as increasing effective investment in strategic projects to improve overall productivity [6][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The focus will be on creating a high-level socialist market economy by ensuring that fiscal macro-control supports effective market mechanisms while allowing micro-entities to thrive [8][9]. - The government aims to optimize resource allocation, enhance fiscal management, and improve the efficiency of public spending through reforms such as zero-based budgeting [9]. - There will be a concerted effort to balance efficiency and equity in tax policies, ensuring a reasonable macro tax burden while promoting social fairness and market unity [9].

焦点关注 央行：经纪机构不得为金融机构参与债券发行业务提供经纪服务 第 498 期 2025-11-14 迈向"十五五"，党的二十届四中全会提出，"发挥积极财政政策作用"。财政部门有哪些考虑？财政部党 组书记、部长蓝佛安接受采访时表示，坚持积极取向，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，根据形势变化，合理 确定赤字率和举债规模，组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具，用好政策空间，保持支出 强度，形成对经济社会发展的持续支撑。 宏观动态 8000亿元！央行下周一操作 中国人民银行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，11月17日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 央行开展2128亿元7天期逆回购操作，净投放711亿元 央行开展2128亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量2128亿元，中标量2128亿元，操作利率为1.40%，今日有 1417亿元逆回购到期，当日实现净投放711亿元。 区域热点 徐州市：市属国企综合融资成本降至3.1％，前三季度压降财务费用1.98亿元 中国人民银行发布《银行间市场经纪业务管理办法》，该办法自2026年1月1日起实施。其中提到， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the monetary policy execution report for Q3 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy measures and outlining future policy directions [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has utilized various monetary policy tools to create a conducive financial environment for economic recovery and market stability [1][2]. - The report indicates that the monetary policy has been moderately loose, leading to a rapid growth in financial totals and an optimized credit structure, supporting key areas and strategic economic transformations [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - As of the end of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, while the RMB loan balance reached 270.4 trillion yuan, marking a 6.6% increase [3]. - The report emphasizes that social financing costs remain low, and the credit structure continues to improve [3]. Group 3: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has focused on structural monetary policies to enhance financial services for economic adjustments and high-quality development, with significant growth in technology loans (11.8%), green loans (22.9%), and loans for the elderly industry (58.2%) [4]. - The balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting key initiatives reached 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September [4]. Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that social financing conditions remain relatively relaxed while enhancing the monetary policy framework and transmission mechanisms [5][7]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, alongside efforts to lower overall financing costs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]