输入型通胀

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KVB PRIME:多个关键数据将公布 英镑回吐涨幅进入盘整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 03:57
Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a volatile pattern, currently at 1.3278 with a daily increase of 0.16%, as market focus shifts to significant economic data releases from the UK and the US, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which may catalyze a breakout from the current consolidation range [1][3]. Economic Data Summary - The UK is set to release its Q1 GDP preliminary value, with market consensus expecting a rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth from 0.1% to 0.6%, while year-on-year growth may slow from 1.5% to 1.2%, indicating uneven domestic demand recovery [3]. - In the US, the focus will be on the April retail sales data and PPI inflation report, with expectations for core PPI year-on-year growth to decline from 3.3% to 3.1%, amid concerns over the impact of tariff policies on imported inflation [3]. Technical Analysis Summary - The GBP/USD is forming a new balance range around the 1.3300 level, with the 50-day EMA acting as a critical support line near 1.3100. The MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence, while the RSI remains above the neutral level of 50, suggesting no clear bias between bulls and bears [4]. - A breakout above the 1.3300-1.3320 resistance zone could lead to a renewed upward trend towards the 1.3400 level, whereas a drop below the 1.3200 support could trigger technical selling, targeting the 1.3100 area [4]. - Market participants are cautiously weighing the differing policy paths of the two economies, with the Bank of England maintaining a restrictive stance but facing rising rate cut expectations due to slowing wage growth and declining service sector inflation [4].
瑞典银行下调瑞典经济增长预期 预计央行年内两次降息至1.75%
智通财经网· 2025-05-06 08:06
智通财经APP获悉,瑞典银行最新发布《经济展望》报告,将瑞典央行基准利率预测大幅调整为:今年第三季度末前累计降息50个基点至1.75%,较该行此 前预测的"8月单次降息25基点至2.25%"出现重大转向。这一调整明显突破上月调查中"多数分析师预期四季度降息至2%"的保守预测。 该行经济分析团队指出,当前北欧最大经济体正面临三重压力:特朗普政府贸易政策引发的外部不确定性、国内经济复苏停滞的隐忧,以及核心通胀居高不 下对货币政策的掣肘。最新数据显示,尽管整体通胀出现回落迹象,但剔除能源食品的核心CPI仍保持粘性,这与GDP增速可能跌破1.5%的疲软表现形成反 差。 分析人士指出,瑞典央行的政策转向折射出北欧经济体面临的特殊困境:既要防范输入型通胀风险,又需应对贸易保护主义对出口导向型经济的冲击。随着 主要央行陆续开启宽松周期,北欧货币政策的分化态势或将加剧市场波动。 "美国加征关税的连锁反应不容忽视",报告强调,贸易摩擦将通过三个渠道冲击瑞典经济:出口订单减少、企业投资放缓和消费信心受挫。基于此,瑞典银 行将2025年经济增长预期从上月预测的2.7%下调至2.5%,同时维持今年1.5%的增速判断。该行认为,关税压 ...
刚刚,大涨!
券商中国· 2025-04-09 10:18
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, leading to heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On April 9, gold prices surged, with spot gold rising over 2% and reaching a peak of $3052 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.62% to $3068.5 per ounce [4][1]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 16%, outperforming major global stock indices [4][1]. - The rise in gold prices reflects investor anxiety over tariff threats and potential changes in global trade rules [4][1]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trade tensions are contributing to an increasingly uncertain global economic outlook, with rising raw material costs expected to drive inflation in the U.S. [2][5]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government is projected to increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index by 1.7% in the short term, with potential further increases if other countries retaliate [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies is expected to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 3: Gold ETF Inflows - In the first quarter of the year, gold-backed ETFs saw a net inflow of 226.5 tons, valued at $21.1 billion, marking the largest quarterly inflow in three years [7][1]. - The total holdings in gold ETFs increased by 3% to 3445.3 tons by the end of March, the highest level since May 2023 [7][1]. - The majority of the inflows came from the U.S. and Europe, with U.S.-listed gold ETFs leading with an inflow of 133.8 tons [7][1]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts believe that the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by increased inflation and economic uncertainty due to tariffs [5][6]. - The potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, coupled with high inflation and slowing growth, is expected to strengthen the case for gold as an investment [6][5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand for gold are anticipated to support a bullish outlook for gold prices [6][8].