Incident Overview - The global second-largest copper mine recently experienced a production accident affecting key facilities, leading to a halt in part of its capacity [3] - This mine accounts for nearly 5% of global copper supply, and its production disruption is expected to significantly impact global copper availability [3] Current Market Conditions - The copper market has been facing tight supply-demand dynamics, with prices showing strong performance in recent years [4] - The recent accident exacerbates the already strained market conditions, further intensifying supply-demand conflicts [4] Price and Market Reaction - Following the accident news, international copper prices surged, with LME copper prices rising over 3%, reaching a near-term high [5] - Domestic copper futures in China also strengthened, approaching their recent peak [5] Industry Chain Reactions - Upstream mining companies may gain higher bargaining power, with unaffected mines likely to increase exports in the short term [9] - The smelting sector faces raw material shortages due to potential reductions in concentrate supply, which may compress smelting profit margins [9] - Downstream manufacturing sectors, particularly in electric cables, batteries, and appliances, will see increased costs due to rising copper prices, impacting project investment returns [9] Future Outlook - Short-term copper price trends will heavily depend on the recovery timeline of the affected mine; prolonged downtime could widen the global supply gap [10] - Medium-term demand from renewable energy and infrastructure projects will continue to reinforce copper's strategic importance [10] - However, significant short-term price increases may lead downstream industries to delay orders or seek alternative materials, potentially suppressing demand [10] Summary - The accident at the global second-largest copper mine heightens concerns over tight copper supply, with immediate price impacts and challenges across the industry chain [11] - Copper's strategic value in energy transition remains strong, but increased market volatility necessitates preparedness from investors and companies [11]

Core Insights - Economic activity and consumer demand in Uzbekistan showed growth in the second quarter, with inflation beginning to slow down since August due to the fading low base effect from last year [1] - As of the end of August, the annual inflation rate decreased to 8.8% and the core inflation rate fell to 7.6%, prompting the central bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 14% [1] - The central bank anticipates that inflationary pressures may increase due to slow global inflation decline, ongoing international trade restrictions, rising food prices, and high inflation in major trading partner countries, projecting an inflation rate of approximately 8.7% by the end of 2025 [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank's relatively tight monetary policy is aimed at enhancing savings attractiveness, promoting balanced credit activity, controlling total demand within reasonable limits, and mitigating the impact of monetary factors on inflation [1] - In the short term, inflation in Uzbekistan is expected to remain at a high level, with the central bank ready to adjust monetary policy if risks escalate or price pressures exceed expectations [1] - The next meeting for adjusting the benchmark interest rate is scheduled for October 23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to significantly impact South Africa's currency, capital flows, and fiscal revenue, making it a critical variable for the country [1]. Group 1: Currency and Capital Flows - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut may lead to a weaker dollar, making emerging market assets more attractive, which could result in short-term capital inflows into South Africa [3]. - This influx of capital is likely to appreciate the South African rand, potentially alleviating imported inflation, but may negatively affect export companies and compress trade-related fiscal revenues [3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Export Revenue - The Fed's rate cut and subsequent dollar weakness could temporarily boost prices for commodities like gold and platinum, benefiting South Africa as a major commodity exporter [5]. - While the short-term outlook suggests increased foreign exchange earnings from higher resource prices, reliance on commodity price increases is not sustainable in the long run [5]. Group 3: Debt Risks - The availability of "cheap money" following the rate cut may encourage African governments and businesses to increase external borrowing, which could lead to long-term debt risks despite lower interest costs in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3359.05 per ounce, following a significant "V-shaped" movement influenced by strong U.S. retail sales and declining unemployment claims [2] - Despite a temporary spike in the U.S. dollar index to 98.95, which pressured gold prices down to a low of $3309.82, strong buying interest emerged, indicating a hidden demand for gold amid inflation concerns [2][3] - The market shows a divergence between rising U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, suggesting a significant disagreement regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market is characterized by a bullish trend with high-level fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $3310 and resistance levels at $3375 [3][5] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on the effective profit space within the range of $3375 to $3310, with specific short-term targets set at $3355 to $3320 [3][5] - The Bollinger Bands indicate a consolidation phase, and traders are advised to monitor the boundaries of the trading range for effective transactions [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are stabilizing at high levels, with Brent crude at $69.44 per barrel and WTI crude at $67.46 per barrel, influenced by supply concerns from Iraq and demand uncertainties due to potential U.S. tariffs [6] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is alleviating trade-related concerns, which is positively impacting oil demand outlooks, despite ongoing structural tensions in the oil market [6] - The potential for rising oil prices remains, especially if the U.S. economy continues to show strength and inventory levels do not recover significantly [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil prices remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - The short-term trend indicates a slight upward movement, with key resistance levels identified at $70.5 to $71.5 and support levels at $67.0 to $66.0 [7]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has shown significant growth in the global currency market in the first half of 2025, standing out among other currencies, while the Euro has performed moderately and the US Dollar faces depreciation pressure [1] Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The rise of the Swiss Franc is largely attributed to a surge in global risk aversion, driven by the reintroduction of tariffs by the US, creating uncertainty in global trade [2] - The CHF has become a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting substantial capital inflows as investors seek stability [2] - The exchange rate of the Euro/CHF has fluctuated between 0.9305 and 0.9425 since April 22, indicating a stable and strong appreciation trend [2] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to zero in the first half of the year, successfully bringing inflation back into positive territory [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in June was only 0.1%, leading to market expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could reintroduce negative interest rates [2] - Despite the low CPI, signs of economic recovery were observed in the first quarter of 2025, reducing the urgency for significant monetary easing [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The SNB's net foreign exchange purchases amounted to only 4.9 million CHF in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious approach [3] - The IMF has warned the SNB to be cautious with monetary policy tools amid an expanding balance sheet, especially in the context of potential deflationary pressures [3] - The Euro/CHF exchange rate has been in a downward trend since April 22, and any changes in risk appetite or policy expectations could trigger significant fluctuations [3] - Upcoming months are critical for the CHF, as the implementation of tariff policies, SNB monetary policy announcements, and Swiss macroeconomic data releases will directly influence market expectations and capital flows [3]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

Group 1: Energy Market Impact - The Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in global energy prices, with international crude oil and natural gas prices rising approximately 7% and 6% respectively, and Greek wholesale electricity prices soaring nearly 40% year-on-year [1][2] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transport route, could result in oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel, further exacerbating fuel costs in Greece [2] - Greek energy companies anticipate increases in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately €0.20 and €0.36 to €0.38 per liter, respectively, due to rising fuel costs [2] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption Sector - The ongoing conflict has negatively impacted Greece's tourism sector, particularly from Israel, which was expected to see over 600,000 visitors in 2024, with a planned increase of nearly 46% in flight capacity by 2025 [3] - The suspension of flights to Israel has led to a significant drop in tourist arrivals, affecting local businesses reliant on tourism, especially in regions where Israeli tourists constitute a substantial portion of visitors [3] - The rising fuel prices are expected to increase transportation and production costs, leading to higher prices for goods and diminishing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 3: Government Response - The Greek government has implemented emergency measures to stabilize prices and protect livelihoods, including intensive inspections of gas stations and oil companies to prevent price gouging [5] - Regulatory actions include setting profit caps on fuel retail and imposing fines for violations, with amounts ranging from €5,000 to €5 million [5] - The government is also collaborating with the EU to secure strategic oil and gas reserves and is accelerating renewable energy projects to reduce dependence on external energy sources [6]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a volatile pattern, currently at 1.3278 with a daily increase of 0.16%, as market focus shifts to significant economic data releases from the UK and the US, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which may catalyze a breakout from the current consolidation range [1][3]. Economic Data Summary - The UK is set to release its Q1 GDP preliminary value, with market consensus expecting a rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth from 0.1% to 0.6%, while year-on-year growth may slow from 1.5% to 1.2%, indicating uneven domestic demand recovery [3]. - In the US, the focus will be on the April retail sales data and PPI inflation report, with expectations for core PPI year-on-year growth to decline from 3.3% to 3.1%, amid concerns over the impact of tariff policies on imported inflation [3]. Technical Analysis Summary - The GBP/USD is forming a new balance range around the 1.3300 level, with the 50-day EMA acting as a critical support line near 1.3100. The MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence, while the RSI remains above the neutral level of 50, suggesting no clear bias between bulls and bears [4]. - A breakout above the 1.3300-1.3320 resistance zone could lead to a renewed upward trend towards the 1.3400 level, whereas a drop below the 1.3200 support could trigger technical selling, targeting the 1.3100 area [4]. - Market participants are cautiously weighing the differing policy paths of the two economies, with the Bank of England maintaining a restrictive stance but facing rising rate cut expectations due to slowing wage growth and declining service sector inflation [4].