Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has shown significant growth in the global currency market in the first half of 2025, standing out among other currencies, while the Euro has performed moderately and the US Dollar faces depreciation pressure [1] Group 1: Swiss Franc Performance - The rise of the Swiss Franc is largely attributed to a surge in global risk aversion, driven by the reintroduction of tariffs by the US, creating uncertainty in global trade [2] - The CHF has become a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting substantial capital inflows as investors seek stability [2] - The exchange rate of the Euro/CHF has fluctuated between 0.9305 and 0.9425 since April 22, indicating a stable and strong appreciation trend [2] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to zero in the first half of the year, successfully bringing inflation back into positive territory [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate in June was only 0.1%, leading to market expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, which could reintroduce negative interest rates [2] - Despite the low CPI, signs of economic recovery were observed in the first quarter of 2025, reducing the urgency for significant monetary easing [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The SNB's net foreign exchange purchases amounted to only 4.9 million CHF in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious approach [3] - The IMF has warned the SNB to be cautious with monetary policy tools amid an expanding balance sheet, especially in the context of potential deflationary pressures [3] - The Euro/CHF exchange rate has been in a downward trend since April 22, and any changes in risk appetite or policy expectations could trigger significant fluctuations [3] - Upcoming months are critical for the CHF, as the implementation of tariff policies, SNB monetary policy announcements, and Swiss macroeconomic data releases will directly influence market expectations and capital flows [3]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

Group 1: Energy Market Impact - The Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in global energy prices, with international crude oil and natural gas prices rising approximately 7% and 6% respectively, and Greek wholesale electricity prices soaring nearly 40% year-on-year [1][2] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transport route, could result in oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel, further exacerbating fuel costs in Greece [2] - Greek energy companies anticipate increases in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately €0.20 and €0.36 to €0.38 per liter, respectively, due to rising fuel costs [2] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption Sector - The ongoing conflict has negatively impacted Greece's tourism sector, particularly from Israel, which was expected to see over 600,000 visitors in 2024, with a planned increase of nearly 46% in flight capacity by 2025 [3] - The suspension of flights to Israel has led to a significant drop in tourist arrivals, affecting local businesses reliant on tourism, especially in regions where Israeli tourists constitute a substantial portion of visitors [3] - The rising fuel prices are expected to increase transportation and production costs, leading to higher prices for goods and diminishing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 3: Government Response - The Greek government has implemented emergency measures to stabilize prices and protect livelihoods, including intensive inspections of gas stations and oil companies to prevent price gouging [5] - Regulatory actions include setting profit caps on fuel retail and imposing fines for violations, with amounts ranging from €5,000 to €5 million [5] - The government is also collaborating with the EU to secure strategic oil and gas reserves and is accelerating renewable energy projects to reduce dependence on external energy sources [6]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a volatile pattern, currently at 1.3278 with a daily increase of 0.16%, as market focus shifts to significant economic data releases from the UK and the US, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which may catalyze a breakout from the current consolidation range [1][3]. Economic Data Summary - The UK is set to release its Q1 GDP preliminary value, with market consensus expecting a rebound in quarter-on-quarter growth from 0.1% to 0.6%, while year-on-year growth may slow from 1.5% to 1.2%, indicating uneven domestic demand recovery [3]. - In the US, the focus will be on the April retail sales data and PPI inflation report, with expectations for core PPI year-on-year growth to decline from 3.3% to 3.1%, amid concerns over the impact of tariff policies on imported inflation [3]. Technical Analysis Summary - The GBP/USD is forming a new balance range around the 1.3300 level, with the 50-day EMA acting as a critical support line near 1.3100. The MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence, while the RSI remains above the neutral level of 50, suggesting no clear bias between bulls and bears [4]. - A breakout above the 1.3300-1.3320 resistance zone could lead to a renewed upward trend towards the 1.3400 level, whereas a drop below the 1.3200 support could trigger technical selling, targeting the 1.3100 area [4]. - Market participants are cautiously weighing the differing policy paths of the two economies, with the Bank of England maintaining a restrictive stance but facing rising rate cut expectations due to slowing wage growth and declining service sector inflation [4].

智通财经APP获悉，瑞典银行最新发布《经济展望》报告，将瑞典央行基准利率预测大幅调整为：今年第三季度末前累计降息50个基点至1.75%，较该行此 前预测的"8月单次降息25基点至2.25%"出现重大转向。这一调整明显突破上月调查中"多数分析师预期四季度降息至2%"的保守预测。 该行经济分析团队指出，当前北欧最大经济体正面临三重压力：特朗普政府贸易政策引发的外部不确定性、国内经济复苏停滞的隐忧，以及核心通胀居高不 下对货币政策的掣肘。最新数据显示，尽管整体通胀出现回落迹象，但剔除能源食品的核心CPI仍保持粘性，这与GDP增速可能跌破1.5%的疲软表现形成反 差。 分析人士指出，瑞典央行的政策转向折射出北欧经济体面临的特殊困境：既要防范输入型通胀风险，又需应对贸易保护主义对出口导向型经济的冲击。随着 主要央行陆续开启宽松周期，北欧货币政策的分化态势或将加剧市场波动。 "美国加征关税的连锁反应不容忽视"，报告强调，贸易摩擦将通过三个渠道冲击瑞典经济：出口订单减少、企业投资放缓和消费信心受挫。基于此，瑞典银 行将2025年经济增长预期从上月预测的2.7%下调至2.5%，同时维持今年1.5%的增速判断。该行认为，关税压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, leading to heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On April 9, gold prices surged, with spot gold rising over 2% and reaching a peak of $3052 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.62% to $3068.5 per ounce [4][1]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 16%, outperforming major global stock indices [4][1]. - The rise in gold prices reflects investor anxiety over tariff threats and potential changes in global trade rules [4][1]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trade tensions are contributing to an increasingly uncertain global economic outlook, with rising raw material costs expected to drive inflation in the U.S. [2][5]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government is projected to increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index by 1.7% in the short term, with potential further increases if other countries retaliate [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies is expected to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 3: Gold ETF Inflows - In the first quarter of the year, gold-backed ETFs saw a net inflow of 226.5 tons, valued at $21.1 billion, marking the largest quarterly inflow in three years [7][1]. - The total holdings in gold ETFs increased by 3% to 3445.3 tons by the end of March, the highest level since May 2023 [7][1]. - The majority of the inflows came from the U.S. and Europe, with U.S.-listed gold ETFs leading with an inflow of 133.8 tons [7][1]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts believe that the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by increased inflation and economic uncertainty due to tariffs [5][6]. - The potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, coupled with high inflation and slowing growth, is expected to strengthen the case for gold as an investment [6][5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand for gold are anticipated to support a bullish outlook for gold prices [6][8].