● 本报记者 马爽 近期，国际黄金市场热度持续攀升，价格一路高歌猛进，并迭创历史新高。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间1月20日17时15分，伦敦现货黄金一举冲破4700美元/盎司整数关口，最高触及4731.54美元/盎司； 纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货同步走强，峰值达4738.0美元/盎司，两大核心品种2026年以来累 计涨幅分别达9.38%、9.31%。对于金价强势表现的原因及后续走势，多位业内分析师给出了各自观 点。 正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖林表示，短期来看，金价在委内瑞拉事件冲击下斩获丰厚避险溢价，尽管 冲突持续时间较短，却已预示2026年全球地缘局势不确定性将显著上升，这一宏观趋势势必对风险资产 价格走势形成剧烈扰动。预计在伊朗问题及格陵兰岛相关争端尘埃落定前，黄金市场将持续获得充足避 险溢价支撑，价格呈现易涨难跌格局，甚至存在加速上行的可能。但需警惕的是，当前金价已明显高 估，依据现有分析框架及估值模型测算，其涨幅已透支未来近十年的增长空间；即便对标1980年金价脱 离估值锚的极端情形，国际金价短期上涨高点或触及5200美元/盎司，中长期则需重点防范避险溢价褪 去后的估值回归风险。 广发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's bullish forecast for gold and silver prices has intensified market enthusiasm, with gold target price raised to $5000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce, indicating these levels are "set in stone" [1][3] Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Reactions - Following Citigroup's announcement, London spot gold increased by 1.2% to $4632 per ounce, while silver surpassed $92 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1] - Wealth redistribution around precious metals is becoming evident, with silver prices rising 148% since early 2025, leading to significant increases in related mining stocks and ETF holdings [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies are providing a safe-haven premium for precious metals, with U.S. military involvement in Venezuela and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions driving funds into gold and silver [3] - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with China's central bank adding gold for 14 consecutive months, while North American and European gold ETFs account for over 80% of inflows [3] - The silver market is facing a projected supply gap of 150 million ounces in 2026, driven by demand from solar energy, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, while supply constraints persist due to long production cycles and export restrictions from China [3] Group 3: Divergent Market Opinions - Market opinions on precious metals' future vary significantly, with JPMorgan maintaining a conservative outlook on silver, predicting an average price of $40.1 per ounce for 2026, citing excessive speculation in current price movements [4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices reaching $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Bank of America has a more aggressive outlook for silver, predicting peak prices between $135 and $309 per ounce [5] - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first half of the year to $5000 but warns of potential corrections to $3950 in the second half if geopolitical tensions ease [5] Group 4: Key Variables Influencing Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's policy signals from the March meeting will significantly influence short-term market sentiment, with potential rate cuts likely to sustain precious metals' upward momentum [5] - The evolution of geopolitical situations involving the U.S., Venezuela, and Iran will directly impact the strength of the safe-haven premium for precious metals [5] - The silver market's sustainability will depend on the realization of solar installation volumes and advancements in silver reduction technologies, which will affect the supply-demand gap [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical tensions and potential inflation, the precious metals market is expected to remain strong. Gold and silver prices are likely to show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions are escalating as the US President Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials, asked US citizens to leave Iran, and was briefed on military and covert operation options against Iran. In terms of inflation, the US CPI and core CPI in December 2025 remained unchanged from the previous value, but the data's reference value for predicting the Fed's future policy path may be weakened. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 13, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1026.86 yuan/gram and closed at 1027.18 yuan/gram, a change of 0.09% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1028.82 yuan/gram and closed at 1031.00 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 20,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,004.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,141,819 lots, and the open interest was 334,660 lots. During the night session, it opened at 21,431 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,943 yuan/kilogram, up 4.47% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.175%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.647%, also unchanged [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,633 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 4,147 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 370,792 lots, a decrease of 12.15% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 6,499 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,632 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,382,636 lots, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,070.80 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,348 tons, an increase of 40 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 13, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -546.66 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 48.90, a change of -0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 54.57, a change of -2.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 58,002 kilograms, a change of 1.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 700,304 kilograms, a change of 70.30% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 3,000 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show an oscillating and strengthening pattern in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2602 contract may be between 1010 yuan/gram and 1050 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Geopolitical Analysis - U.S. President Trump has canceled all talks with Iranian officials and the State Department has urged U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately [2] - Military options regarding Iran have been presented to President Trump, which are described as "broad" and "far beyond traditional airstrikes" [2] Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, both remaining unchanged from previous values [2] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown may reduce the predictive value of this data for future Federal Reserve policy [2] - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy in January 2026 [2] Futures Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1026.86 CNY/gram and closed at 1027.18 CNY/gram, a change of 0.09% from the previous day [3] - The main silver futures contract opened at 20900.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 21004.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of 0.28% from the previous day [3] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.175%, unchanged from the previous day, with a 10-year and 2-year yield spread of 0.647%, also unchanged [5] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 13, 2026, the total trading volume for gold was 370,792 contracts, a decrease of 12.15% from the previous day [18] - The total trading volume for silver was 2,382,636 contracts, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous day [18] ETF Holdings - As of the last report, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,070.80 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings increased by 40 tons to 16,348 tons [19] Price Differentials - On January 13, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -6.49 CNY/gram, and for silver, it was -546.66 CNY/kilogram [20] - The gold-silver ratio for the main contracts was approximately 48.90, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous day [20] Market Strategy - The market sentiment is cautiously bullish for gold, with expectations of a price range between 1010 CNY/gram and 1050 CNY/gram for the Au2602 contract [22] - Silver is also expected to maintain a cautiously bullish stance, with a price range between 21,000 CNY/kilogram and 23,000 CNY/kilogram for the Ag2604 contract [23]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 光伏价格指数方面，截至2025年12月29日（最新）数据报14.10，较此前一期上行0.38。光伏经理人指数 报134.37，环比下跌1.8。 策略 黄金：谨慎偏多 目前市场对于黄金交易逻辑未发生明显改变；关税方面，即便美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府关税政策不 合法，其作为总统亦可通过其他方式进行关税加征，料不会对金价形成长期利空，黄金避险溢价仍将延 续交易主线地位；此外黄金作为美元资产替代的逻辑亦未发生明显改变，整体维持对黄金谨慎偏多观 点，操作上延续逢低做多思路。 白银：谨慎偏多 宏观面 2026-01-09当周，金银价格继续维持高位震荡的强势表现。经济数据方面，非农新增就业5万，前两月 累计下修7.6万，其中政府分别新增1.3万，私营部门新增3.7万，结构上看服务业偏强（+5.8万），工业 部门则偏弱（制造、建筑和采掘为负增长）；失业率方面，由上个月的4.564%降至4.375%，大幅好于 4.5%的预期。整体看，本月的劳动力市场数据部分打消了对近期就业市走弱的担忧，但从整体趋势 （新增就业、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a slight decline, reflecting a weakening of the dollar's temporary advantage and a structural strength in the Swiss franc, with a cumulative drop of over 12% for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's leading indicator unexpectedly rose to 103.4 in December, up from 101.7, marking the highest level in over a year, indicating strong performance in manufacturing and construction [1] - Despite the improvement in supply-side indicators, there are signs of weakening demand-side metrics, suggesting a balanced interpretation of the Swiss economy [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price behavior of USD/CHF has been consistent since year-end, with a phase of stabilization around 0.7860 before returning above 0.79 [2] - The current position at 0.7930 is within the consolidation range following a prior rebound, with 0.7950 likely to attract technical traders' attention [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The MACD on the daily chart remains below the zero line, indicating a weakening downward trend, while the RSI around 44 suggests the market is not in an extreme oversold condition [2] - The significant decline of the USD/CHF over the past year has led to a reallocation of market weight between the "dollar cycle" and "safe-haven premium" [2] Group 4: Risk and Preference - In times of rising market concerns, the safe-haven attributes of the Swiss franc may enhance its strength, while risk appetite recovery may not immediately diminish the franc's strength due to inertia in interest rate expectations and capital allocation [2] - The oscillation around 0.79 reflects the simultaneous presence of two opposing forces: short-term resilience in USD data providing support, and long-term easing expectations suppressing upward movement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has implemented multiple risk prevention measures for silver futures contracts to cool down the market and guide rational trading, emphasizing the need for investors to control risks [1][3]. Group 1: SHFE Measures - Starting from December 24, the SHFE has set a daily opening position limit of 10,000 lots for non-futures company members and special overseas non-broker participants in the silver futures AG2602 contract [1]. - The trading fees for closing positions in the AG2602 contract will be adjusted to 0.25% of the transaction amount, while the AG2604 contract will have a fee of 0.05% [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The recent surge in silver futures and other precious metals has led to historical highs, with the main silver contract rising by 6.06% to 16,210 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The price increases are attributed to strong market sentiment supported by factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and Europe [5]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the SHFE's measures are a response to the rapid price increases and heightened trading activity, aimed at preventing excessive speculation and maintaining market stability [3]. - The precious metals sector is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, but there are warnings about increased volatility following significant price rises [5].

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with a significant increase in the proportion of central banks cutting rates from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a transition from a tightening to an easing cycle [1] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential re-initiation of quantitative easing (QE), with the contraction rate of major central banks' balance sheets narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025 [2] - Historical data shows that during previous QE periods, commodity price indices, including energy and metals, experienced significant increases, with energy indices rising by 131.88% and metal price indices by 55.29% from 2020 to 2022 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly increasing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like gold [3] - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to a structural tightening in supply, with global gold consumption averaging around 4,616 tons annually and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [4] - Silver supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [6] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Platinum is anticipated to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining supply and slow recovery in demand [7] - The demand for platinum jewelry is expected to recover due to high gold prices, while industrial demand remains resilient despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [7] - The ongoing structural improvements in silver supply-demand dynamics and the increase in liquidity premiums are likely to support higher silver pricing [6]

Investment Summary - The global central bank interest rate cut ratio has significantly increased from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy cycle since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2024 [1] - The net interest rate cut ratio has also improved from -73.33% to +86.08% during the same period, suggesting that the easing of financial conditions will positively impact economic growth and commodity prices, particularly in the metal industry [1] Central Bank Balance Sheet - The global central bank balance sheet has shown positive changes, with the contraction rate narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025, indicating a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [2] - The Federal Reserve has initiated reserve management bond purchases, with the first round amounting to approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills [2] - Historical data shows that previous QE periods have led to significant increases in commodity price indices, with energy, mineral, and metal indices rising by 131.88%, 55.46%, and 55.29% respectively during the last QE period from 2020 to 2022 [2] Geopolitical Risks and Gold - The global geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly above the historical average, which has led to an increase in the safe-haven premium for gold [3] - The global economic policy uncertainty index has also hit a record high, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset during turbulent financial periods [3] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold pricing is expected to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price stability [4] - Global gold supply is in a low-growth phase, while demand remains robust, particularly due to central bank purchases, which have exceeded 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years [4] - The average annual global gold consumption has risen to approximately 4,616 tons, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs [4] Silver Market Outlook - The global silver supply is expected to grow at a low rate, with a projected increase from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% [6] - Industrial demand for silver, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, is anticipated to be the main growth driver for silver demand, while traditional photography demand continues to decline [6] Platinum Market Analysis - The global platinum market is projected to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a forecasted supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining output and slow recovery in recycling [7] - The ongoing supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support platinum prices, with the market potentially entering a structural shortage cycle from 2025 to 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global decline in real interest rates is expected to enhance the price elasticity of commodities, positively impacting the metal industry as monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing [5][6]. - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which historically has supported commodity price increases [6][24]. - High geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven premium for precious metals, particularly gold [7][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Cycle and Liquidity - The shift in central bank balance sheets is facilitating the release of price elasticity in commodities, with a significant increase in the proportion of global central banks engaging in rate cuts from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025 [5][23]. - The current geopolitical risk index is at a historical high, which is expected to maintain the upward pressure on precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [7][33]. 2. Precious Metals Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices are anticipated to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand fundamentals establishing a strong price floor [8][41]. - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with mining output growth slowing and production costs rising above $1500 per ounce [8][42][48]. - The silver market is projected to experience a widening supply-demand gap, driven by industrial demand growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Platinum is expected to maintain a structural shortage, with supply constraints and resilient demand from jewelry and industrial applications [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining as potential investment targets [9][12].