Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focus on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the industrial goods sector and the real estate market in China, as well as the implications of U.S. monetary policy on global markets [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Industrial Goods Outlook**: The future direction of industrial goods is contingent on the relaxation of financial conditions versus weakening U.S. fiscal policies and uncertainties surrounding tariffs affecting manufacturing demand. There are concerns about recession risks, but recent trends suggest a stabilization in risk appetite, indicating potential for demand recovery [1][4][10]. 2. **Inflation and Employment Trends**: A decline in oil prices and marginal weakening in the U.S. job market have led to February's inflation data falling below expectations. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as a critical point for market sentiment. If the dot plot and Powell's statements lean hawkish, it could negatively impact risk appetite; conversely, a neutral or dovish stance could boost sentiment in industrial goods [1][5][11]. 3. **Credit and Investment Dynamics**: February's social financing data indicates strong fiscal expansion, but the private sector continues to reduce leverage. Investment and consumption willingness in the private sector remain unactivated, perpetuating a negative cycle of domestic deflation [2][6][11]. 4. **Real Estate Market Discrepancies**: The current fundamental disagreements in the real estate market revolve around the adequacy of low-priced demand to support the market. Bears argue that it lacks credit stimulation, while bulls believe that the transmission of volume to price requires time. Observations of first-tier second-hand housing prices are crucial, as stability in these prices could lead to structural recovery in new construction in the second half of the year [3][7][12]. 5. **Bond Market Sentiment**: The short-term outlook for the bond market remains bearish, with expectations of difficulty in price recovery. It is suggested to wait for clearer drivers, such as a decline in first-tier second-hand housing prices or a peak in real estate transactions, before making strategic moves. If first-tier housing prices stabilize, a shift in the bond market direction may occur [8][13]. Additional Important Insights - The discussions highlight the importance of monitoring the German parliament's voting on defense spending, which could influence European economic contributions [4]. - The emphasis on the need for more evidence regarding the stabilization of first-tier housing prices suggests a cautious approach to investment in the real estate sector [7][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic landscape, particularly in relation to industrial goods and real estate, while also considering the implications of U.S. monetary policy.

联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升。②欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显 下滑。③日本2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、就业（美国初请和续请失 业金人数回落）、地产（房贷申请数量回升）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、物价（大宗价格和汽油零售价回落）。 3、美国流动性 高频 ：①美国金融条件紧缩，欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：有所恶化。日元、欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升 。 2、欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显下滑 。 3、日本 2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修 。 二、周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数回升 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 2月美国非农就业数据略低于市场预期，但整体依然稳健。新增非农就业人数15.1万（市场预期16.0 万），失业率4.1%（市场预期4.0%），劳动参与率62.4%（市场预期62.6%），平均时薪同比增速 4.0%（市场预期4.1%）。 表1：美国非农就业人数稳步增长 | | 就业人数权重 | | 较上月变动(万人) | | 新增就业人数(万人) | | 近三个月均值(万人) | | 较上月变化 (% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025年2月 | 2025年1月 | 2024年12月 | | | | | 新增非农就业 | 100% | 1 | 2.6 | 15. 1 | 12. 5 | 32. 3 | 20. 0 | | | | 修正幅度 | | | | | -1.8 | 1.6 | | | | | 私人部门 | 85. 17% | 1 | 5. 9 | 14.0 | 8. 1 | 28. 7 | 16. 9 | 1 | 0. 1 | | 商品 | 13.63% ...