Core Insights - The central bank's financial data report for January 2026 indicates a year-on-year increase in M2 money supply by 9%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5 percentage points [1] - M1 money supply also saw a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The total social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan in January, which is 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Monetary Supply Data - M0 money supply year-on-year growth is reported at 2.7%, down from 10.2% [1] - M1 money supply year-on-year growth is at 4.9%, compared to the previous month's 3.8% [1] - M2 money supply year-on-year growth is at 9%, an increase from 8.5% in the prior month [1] Additional Financial Metrics - New RMB deposits in January amounted to 8.09 trillion yuan [1] - New RMB loans issued in January totaled 4.71 trillion yuan [1] - The increase in social financing scale for January stands at 7.22 trillion yuan [1]

7.22万亿元的社融增量、9%的M2同比增速，高增速反映出金融总量继续"给力"，支持年初经济平稳开局。 中国人民银行2月13日公布的2026年1月金融统计数据显示，当月社会融资规模增量7.22万亿元，创历史新高， 比上年同期多1662亿元；M2（广义货币）同比增长9%，比上月和上年同期分别高0.5和2.0个百分点。M1（狭 义货币）同比增长4.9%，比上月高1.1个百分点。 权威专家表示，2026年开年宏观政策更加积极有为。财政、货币等政策持续加强协同，会放大政策效果，存量 和增量财政政策集成效应将进一步发力显效。当前我国金融供给总量是比较充足的，破解有效需求不足的问 题，关键还是要深化改革、促进经济结构转型升级。 1月金融总量较快增长 新年首月，社融增量和M2保持较快增长，特别是1月末M2增速超出市场普遍预期，充分体现出开年以来适度 宽松的货币政策状态，以及货币政策对年初经济平稳开局的有力支持。 1月末M2增速较上月有所走高，一方面受去年低基数影响，另一方面也与开年资本市场走势积极有关。中金公 司研报指出，在股市活跃的背景下，居民存款有望进一步活化，非银存款也有望同比多增。业内专家分析，随 着基数因素逐步消 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth in China's financial metrics at the beginning of 2026, with a record social financing increment of 7.22 trillion yuan and an M2 growth rate of 9%, indicating strong monetary support for the economy [1][2][4] - The increase in M2 is attributed to both a low base from the previous year and positive trends in the capital market, suggesting that the monetary policy is effectively supporting economic stability [2][3] - The government has adopted a more proactive fiscal policy, with significant increases in government bond issuance, reaching 976.4 billion yuan in January, which is the highest level for the same period since 2021 [2][3] Group 2 - In January, new loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, aligning with market expectations, and reflecting a stable credit environment [4][5] - The structure of new credit shows a significant increase in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, driven by major project launches and consumer demand ahead of the Spring Festival [5][6] - The personal loan sector also saw a slight increase, supported by diverse consumer needs and favorable policies aimed at enhancing consumer loan uptake [6][7] Group 3 - The integration of stock and incremental policies is emphasized as crucial for observing the cumulative effects of monetary policy, with a focus on maintaining stable support for the real economy [7][8] - The central bank has implemented multiple monetary policy adjustments since 2018, leading to a significant reduction in loan interest rates, which has facilitated easier access to credit for businesses and consumers [7][8] - Compared to developed economies, China's monetary policy remains stable and continuous, with current personal mortgage rates nearing historical lows, indicating a favorable environment for borrowing [7][8]

Economic Outlook for January Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for January, highlighting key indicators such as CPI, PPI, and financial forecasts related to the Chinese economy [1] Key Points and Arguments Price Predictions - January CPI is projected to increase by 0.6% year-on-year (previous value: 0.8%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] - For industrial products, January PPI is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-on-year (previous value: -1.9%), with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] Financial Forecasts - In January, new RMB loans are expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate falling by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% [1] - New social financing in January is projected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 8.1% [1] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month; M1 growth rate is projected to be 2.2%, down from 3.8%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points [1] Future Monetary Policy Predictions - Economic growth and the promotion of reasonable price recovery will be key considerations for monetary policy throughout 2026, alongside financial stability [1] - A total easing operation of 25-50 basis points in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point interest rate cut is anticipated, with a gradual approach and infrequent adjustments [1] - Structural policy tools will continue to be emphasized, with a focus on guiding credit structure and supporting areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Important but Overlooked Content - There is a risk that an escalation of geopolitical conflicts could unexpectedly boost China's economic performance by addressing overcapacity issues [1] - The potential for policy implementation to fall short of expectations is highlighted as a risk factor [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index will decline while bonds will rebound. Stock index futures will see a decline in trading volume below 3 trillion, and the stock market will experience an oscillating decline. For treasury bond futures, due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [122][124] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai 50 and CSI 300**: These indices are oscillating at high levels [9] - **CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 has fallen from high levels, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all increased [20][23] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion [27] - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are stable, while those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have significantly declined [30] - **CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent. The ALPHA of the energy, materials, and telecommunications sectors is positive, while that of the industrial, optional, consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, and public sectors is negative throughout the cycle [36][39] - **Newly - Listed Companies**: In December, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 13 [47] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Monetary Market Indicators** - **Treasury Bond IRR**: The quarterly IRR of 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [77][80] - **Inter - bank Repurchase Rate**: The inter - bank repurchase weighted interest rate has slightly declined [84] - **Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has slightly declined [89] - **Economic Indicators** - **CPI - PPI**: In December, the CPI was 0.8%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.9% [93] - **PMI**: In December, the PMI fell to 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, indicating weak economic recovery [98] - **Consumption**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, and consumer data declined. However, consumer confidence is trending upwards [104][108] - **Monetary Supply**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, and the growth of credit accelerated. M1 was 3.8%. The newly - added RMB loans were 910 billion [111][115] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market will shrink below 3 trillion. Policy adjustments and regulatory actions will lead to an oscillating decline in the stock index [124] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to sufficient monetary liquidity and a decline in domestic market interest rates, the 10 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.8090%. Long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [124]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复，国债期货大多收涨 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data for December 2025 indicates a stable recovery in the economy, with rising prices in non-ferrous metals, a return of the manufacturing PMI to the expansion zone, and growth in medium to long-term corporate loans. However, the economic environment for small and medium-sized enterprises remains challenging, and the real estate market continues to exert significant downward pressure on prices and investments [1]. Group 1: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 0.7% to 0.8% year-on-year, with food CPI rising 1.1% year-on-year, marking a continuous five-month growth [4][2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -2.2% to -1.9% year-on-year, reflecting a narrowing decline in industrial product prices due to rising raw material costs and the impact of policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [7][5]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Investment - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 49.2% to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion for large enterprises, while small enterprises remain in a contraction zone [10][8]. - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with real estate investment down 17.2%, while equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by policy initiatives [14][11]. Group 3: Credit and Money Supply - New RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan in December, with medium to long-term corporate loans increasing by 330 billion yuan, driven by recent policy financial tools [17][15]. - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant rebound, primarily due to a reduction in non-bank deposits [20][18].

Group 1 - The latest financial data shows that by the end of December 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 340.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 115.51 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year [1] - M1 represents the money that is readily available for spending, indicating an increase in consumer spending power and market activity, while M2 reflects the overall increase in money supply and liquidity in the economy [2] - The "scissor difference" between M2 and M1 has been a focal point for the market; a widening gap suggests that businesses are opting to deposit funds in banks rather than invest, indicating a decline in investment willingness amid economic pressures [3] Group 2 - The narrowing of the "scissor difference" observed since last year indicates a reduction in corporate demand for liquid deposits, suggesting increased investment activities and a positive economic outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].